房地产 2026 年展望：调结构待转型，提质量新发展 20251224 摘要 2025 年初房地产去化周期下降，但 4 月起因市场趋冷而上升，现房代 售和广义库存均呈现类似趋势，表明市场面临库存压力。 2020 年以来，土地投资在房地产投资中占比提升，反映房企在开工方 面投资收窄，同时一二线城市土地成交比例自 2025 年 3 月起显著增加。 住宅销售均价与领先 8 个月的住宅楼面价高度相关，2025 年中期拿地 楼面价提升预示未来新房成交均价可能上行，部分房企调整后毛利率有 所提高，与其结转房屋结构有关。 展望 2026 年，全国广义和狭义库存规模预计下滑，但狭义库存绝对值 仍然较高，主要由于房企开工和施工规模收缩导致在建房屋等待去化。 预测 2026 年全国商品房销售面积将低于 8.7 亿平方米，同比下降 4%- 5%，新开工同比降幅预计为 14%-15%，全年房地产投资同比降幅预计 超过 10%，市场仍面临下行压力。 中国城镇化率已超 65%，城镇化对房地产拉动作用减弱，房地产对 GDP 贡献比例自 2018 年以来呈下降趋势，与土地出让金贡献比例下降 相一致。 房地产行业依赖信贷政策，当前中国处于信贷 ...

对话 2026 年关键词：金融地产篇 20251224 摘要 非银金融板块，尤其是线上保险和券商，在未来一年内相较于银行更具 增长潜力。线上保险受益于权益仓位占比提升，若股市走牛，投资端收 益将显著增强；居民资产配置调整也利好保险的稳健收益产品。 保险公司 H 股修复明显，A 股滞后，预计 2026 年基本面将进一步改善。 险种结构优化，新险种如商保、医保数据探索和分红型重疾险有望带来 增量，同时报行合一推进提升保单利润率。 券商在跨年行情中表现良好，春季躁动期间胜率高。尽管今年 A 股券商 表现不佳，但业绩持续释放和市场活跃度提升未充分定价，使其具备超 额收益潜力。 2026 年银行业策略关注息差和资产增速。房地产政策影响下，银行量 价将呈现均衡格局，息差成为核心营收增长关键。贷款定价有望触底回 升，存款利率调降推动息差 L 型筑底。 预计 2026 年信贷增量持平或略低于 2025 年，社融增速和信贷增速剪 刀差延续。存款利率下行，信贷扩张放缓，存贷增速维持紧平衡。核心 营收预计小幅增长，非息收入是关键扰动因素。 Q&A 2026 年金融板块的投资机会和风险如何？ 在 2026 年，金融板块可能成为推动指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent learning and communication of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit by various departments and regions is an important window for tracking the implementation of the conference's spirit, revealing more details and actionable measures [2] Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are focusing on the "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" principle, with clear directions and highlighted priorities such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening technology, promoting reform, and stabilizing real estate [3][5] - The central government is expected to continue "leveraging" with specific scales to be determined at the 2026 National Two Sessions, emphasizing proactive measures and reasonable acceleration of fund disbursement [4][6] - Departments are prioritizing support for expanding domestic demand, utilizing various funds, and continuing to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, including fostering trillion-level new consumption growth points [6][7] Group 2: Financial and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank are maintaining a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels [6][8] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, along with introducing more structural tools [2][4] - There is an emphasis on accelerating fiscal spending and issuing special bonds to support consumption and investment [6][7] Group 3: Industry and Innovation - There is a strong focus on industrial transformation, self-control, and innovation leadership, with initiatives to promote technology finance and the construction of international technology innovation centers in key regions [7][8] - The government is pushing for reforms to create a unified market, enhance the development of the private economy, and deepen state-owned enterprise reforms [8][9] Group 4: Risk Management - The financial system is focused on preventing risks, particularly in the real estate sector, while ensuring support for both residents and real estate companies [9][10] - Measures are being taken to stabilize the stock market and promote long-term investments, including accelerating reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and piloting commercial real estate REITs [10][11] Group 5: Local Implementation - Various regions are adapting the central economic work conference's spirit to their local contexts, emphasizing proactive measures and specific actionable tasks, with a focus on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [13][14] - Local governments are expected to detail their plans and measures in the upcoming local two sessions in January 2026, with a strong emphasis on innovation and openness [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see improved profitability and demand in 2025, driven by "anti-involution" policies and a gradual recovery in key product demand [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, demand for major construction materials showed slight improvement, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side dynamics, leading to improved profitability across various sub-sectors [2]. - The construction materials index rose by 20.8% from January 2 to December 23, 2025, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the CSI 300 index increased by 17.43% during the same period [1][2]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The real estate market continues to stabilize, with a downward trend in sales and completion rates, alongside declining housing prices; however, inventory reduction is evident as the area of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing since early 2025 [2]. - Infrastructure investment growth is declining despite an increase in the scale of special bonds directed towards land reserves [2]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main lines: 1. "Anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues in the construction materials sector, with an emphasis on traditional materials [2]. 2. The demand for high-end fiberglass products is anticipated to enhance industry profitability [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to ease overcapacity in the cement industry, with a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics anticipated to boost profitability, particularly for leading companies like Conch Cement [3]. - **Float Glass**: Demand remains weak, but supply-side changes from "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand balance; companies like Xinyi Glass are recommended for attention [3]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The industry is currently facing overcapacity, but leading companies with cost advantages are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand conditions as "anti-involution" policies are implemented [3]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: The increasing proportion of aging housing is expected to drive demand for renovation-related building materials, with companies like Skshu Paint and Beixin Building Materials highlighted for potential investment [3]. Fiberglass Sector - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to prevent redundant capacity and curb vicious price competition in the fiberglass sector, with rising demand for mid-to-high-end fiberglass products likely to enhance profitability; companies such as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are recommended for investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial crisis surrounding the "Xiangyuan system" continues to escalate, with the actual controller Yu Faxiang facing criminal charges, negatively impacting the stock prices of Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Jiaojian Co., and Haichang Ocean Park [2][11]. Stock Price Movements - On December 22, the three companies announced that Yu Faxiang was taken into criminal custody, leading to significant stock declines on December 23: Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism down 2.80%, Jiaojian down 4.89%, and Haichang down 7.29% [12]. - In December, the stock prices of the three companies experienced substantial declines: Haichang down 35.71%, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism down 19.89%, and Jiaojian down 37.09% [4][12]. - On December 24, there was a slight recovery in stock prices, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism closing at 5.92 yuan (up 0.17%), Jiaojian at 7.65 yuan (up 0.92%), and Haichang at 0.450 HKD (up 1.12%) [4][13]. Financial Product Defaults - Since November 28, multiple financial products guaranteed by Xiangyuan Holdings and Yu Faxiang have faced payment defaults, involving over 200 products and a total outstanding amount exceeding 200 billion yuan, affecting nearly 10,000 investors [3][12]. - The underlying assets of the defaulted financial products are primarily accounts receivable from real estate and cultural tourism projects within the Xiangyuan Holdings system [14]. Ongoing Investigations and Risks - A support team was established by the Shaoxing government on December 12 to assist Xiangyuan Holdings, indicating a direct link between the financial product defaults and Yu Faxiang's criminal charges [14]. - Legal experts suggest that Yu Faxiang's legal responsibilities are closely tied to the payment crisis, as he is both the chairman of Xiangyuan Holdings and responsible for the payment obligations of the financial products [14]. Project Status and Concerns - Several projects under the Xiangyuan system have been reported as halted or under construction, raising concerns about the company's operational stability [15]. - Past issues of non-disclosure regarding non-operational fund usage have increased investor anxiety, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism previously fined for failing to disclose 410 million yuan in such funds [17]. Risk Assessment - The core risks facing the three listed companies include the implications of the actual controller's legal issues, potential stock freezes, price volatility, and investor rights protection [18].

日度报告——综合晨报 北京优化调整房地产相关政策，枧下窝锂矿 预计春节前后复产 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-25 宏观策略（股指期货） 北京进一步优化调整房地产相关政策 在震荡中沪指悄然实现了六连阳，迎来一波短暂的升势。由于 成交持续扩大维持在 1.9万亿水平，我们认为跨年行情有望开启， 沪指或再度冲击 4000 点。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至 21.4 万人 综 美国最新的首申数据低于预期，劳动力市场短期维持稳健，市 场风险偏好走高，美元维持弱势。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 晨 央行将开展 4000 亿元 MLF 操作 报 长债对于地产政策等利空反应并不大，反而不时期待降准和央 行买债放量等政策，长债市场正在筑底蓄势。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） MPOA：12 月 1-20 日马棕产量环比下降 7.44% MPOA 数据验证减产预期，产地供应压力有望逐步缓解 有色金属（碳酸锂） 宁德时代宜春枧下窝锂矿预计春节前后复产 短期盘面预计承压，中长线仍以回调做多思路对待。 能源化工（原油） CPC 12 月装载量下降 油价偏弱震荡。 扫描二维码，微信 ...

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月25日（星期四），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 中国证券报 央行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会提出 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 中国人民银行12月24日消息，央行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日召 开。会议提出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工 具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 优化产业结构和区域布局 鼓励外商投资产业目录修订扩大 贵金属"超级年"：上游"掘金"乐 下游"破浪"行 国家发展改革委12月24日消息，经国务院同意，国家发展改革委、商务部近日全文发布《鼓励外商投资 产业目录（2025年版）》。国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，修订出台鼓励目录是更大力度吸引和利用 外资的重要举措。本次修订总的考虑是落实党中央、国务院稳外资决策部署，引导更多外资投向先进制 造业、现代服务业、高新技术、节能环保等领域，以及中西部和东北地区。 北京优化调整住房限购政策 为贯彻落实中央经济工作会 ...

盘前要闻 1、美结束上届政府针对中国芯片调查 未来18个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 3、央行：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会召开。会议认为，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。会议指出，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融 支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，维护资本市场稳定。 4、八部门发文！关于金融支持加快西部陆海新通道建设，跨境支付迎风口 据悉，美国政府宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸 易调查。美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在18 个月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。市场分析认为，暂缓加征新关税是美政府寻求稳定中美关系的新信 号。 2、限购再放松，北京又出楼市政策"组合拳"！专家预计多地或跟进类似政策 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 12月24日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关 ...

Group 1 - The revised Public Security Administration Punishment Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, with a focus on sealing records of minor offenses, particularly for minors [2][3] - The law aims to prevent the lifelong consequences of a single punishment, providing a framework for sealing minor offense records, which will still be recorded but not publicly accessible [4][5] - The law clarifies the relationship between the Public Security Administration Punishment Law and the Criminal Law, stating that criminal acts must be prosecuted under criminal law, while non-criminal acts are subject to administrative penalties [6][7] Group 2 - The sealing of drug-related records is included in the law, emphasizing that drug use is treated as a violation rather than a crime, with a strong focus on rehabilitation and prevention of drug abuse [8][9] - The government has established a comprehensive system for drug rehabilitation, including voluntary and mandatory rehabilitation measures, and emphasizes the importance of confidentiality regarding the personal information of drug users [9][10] Group 3 - The law has received no objections since its announcement on June 27, 2025, indicating broad acceptance and support from the public [3][4] - The law's provisions are designed to ensure that all citizens are treated equally under the law, reinforcing the principle of equality before the law [2][5]

12月24日，北京市住房和城乡建设委等多部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通 知》，出台进一步优化限购等5条政策。 根据通知，北京非本市户籍居民家庭购买五环内商品住房的，缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调整 为购房之日前连续缴纳满2年及以上；购买五环外商品住房的，缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调 整为购房之日前连续缴纳满1年及以上。同时，对二孩及以上的多子女居民家庭(包括本市户籍和非本市 户籍居民家庭)，在执行现有住房限购政策的基础上，可在五环内再多购买一套商品住房。 中指研究院相关负责人向上海证券报记者表示，北京本次优化调整房地产政策，降低了非户籍家庭购房 的社保和个税年限要求，直接扩大了购房需求群体规模，并增加多孩家庭购房套数，有望促进非京籍及 多孩家庭住房需求释放。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 另外，通知要求，为进一步优化营商环境，将通过招拍挂拿地的房地产开发项目(包括商品住宅、酒 店、写字楼等)立项方式由市区分级核准调整为区级备案。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，此次北京出台的房地产政策， 充分发挥了地方在房地产政策方面的调整优化作用，有助于促使房地产市 ...