作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 本周，当外围关税突然传来缓和声浪， A 股却在九连涨之后收住了势头。 今天下午两点，指数突然跳水，打破了市场一天的平静。 为何突然变脸？ 风不平，浪不静 01 截至， 上证指数收跌 0.07% ，创业板指涨 0.59% ，市场成交额再破万亿。 板块方面，电力板块尾盘发力，湖南发展等多股涨停；钛白粉板块走高，天原股份逼近涨停；旅游酒店板块震荡上行，三峡旅游、天府文旅双双 涨停； CPO 、云计算、 AI 医疗板块涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块回落，西部黄金领跌；乳业股走低，贝因美尾盘跌停；跨境支付、创新 药、宠物经济、猪肉股跌幅居前。 昨天下午一份 "豁免清单"在网上流传，文件内提到部分科技产品的 125% 对等关税暂时取消，包括集成电路 ( 年进口量 87 亿，不含存储 芯片 ) 、血液类制品 (67 亿 ) 、半导体制造设备 (42 亿 ) 、医疗类闪烁扫描装置 (35 亿 ) 、乙烯聚合物 (26 亿 ) 半导体相关的特定检测仪 器 (19 亿 ) 等产品，合计豁免总额接近 450 亿左右，占到从美国进口总额的 30% 。 ...

Group 1: Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing - The largest global analog chip sales company, TI, reported Q1 2025 revenue of $4.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the guidance range of $3.74-4.06 billion set in Q4 2024 [2] - Gross margin was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, but better than previous guidance. For Q2 2025, revenue guidance is set at $4.17-4.53 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 19% at the midpoint [2] - Demand in the downstream industrial sector saw a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in orders after seven consecutive quarters of decline, signaling a recovery across all areas and regions of the industrial market [2] - In the automotive sector, Q1 orders showed low single-digit growth, while the personal electronics sector experienced a 5% decline in orders. TI noted that inventory destocking in the analog sector is largely complete, with demand recovery trends also reflected in the latest earnings calls of competitors ADI and Renesas [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Yangjie Technology reported a 2024 revenue of 6.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a gross margin of 38.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.28 billion yuan, a 40.3% increase [3] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 450 million yuan, up 72.1% [3] - The revenue growth was driven by increased demand in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic inverter, and industrial control sectors, alongside the ramp-up of new products like IGBT and SiC devices [3] - IGBT revenue for 2024 reached 1.28 billion yuan, a 75% increase, indicating strong competitiveness in new product development [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Ruoyu Chen achieved a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.26%, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, up 94.58%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 574 million yuan, a 54.16% increase, with net profit growing 113.88% [5] - The self-owned brand business generated 500 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 90% increase, accounting for 28% of total revenue. Brand management business revenue also reached 500 million yuan, growing over 200% [5] - Growth was driven by the introduction of new brands and the performance of existing brands across all channels, with significant growth in self-operated GMV on platforms like Douyin [5] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, rising nearly 10 percentage points since the beginning of the year, reflecting effective product structure optimization and cost control [5]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry and recommends a strategic focus on AI software applications and related sectors [1][2][3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI technology, highlighting the resurgence of market interest in AI themes and the potential for investment in the AI software application sector [1] - It identifies opportunities in the domestic AI computing power supply chain, particularly in cloud service providers, computing power leasing, and various hardware components [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing sustained interest, with a trend of expanding from structural components to electronic components, indicating potential for collaborative development within the electronics industry [3] - The report also notes the value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by advancements in large model technology and the open-source movement [3] - The consumer electronics panel supply-demand dynamics are improving, with signs of price increases due to rising demand and supply-side adjustments [6] Summary by Sections AI Industry - Continued optimism regarding the growth potential of the AI industry, particularly in software applications and computing power supply chains [1][2] - Key companies mentioned include: 用友网络, 金蝶国际, 汉得信息, and others [1] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with electronic architecture similar to that of intelligent driving systems [3] - Relevant companies include: 峰岹科技, 思瑞浦, and others [3] Internet Sector - The report highlights the ongoing value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly for Tencent Holdings due to its diverse AI application scenarios [3] Consumer Electronics - The report suggests investment opportunities in the panel industry, with companies like TCL 科技, 彩虹股份, and 京东方 being highlighted [6]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US PMI readings have shown a high level of economic activity since the beginning of the year, but the expansion trend may face obstacles in the first half of the year, potentially fluctuating around the lower end of the growth line [1] - The manufacturing PMI has not shown a trend recovery following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, indicating a lack of significant demand rebound [1][2] - Export leading indicators such as South Korea's exports and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have shown signs of decline, suggesting potential challenges for the US economy [1][2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Tariffs - The recent tariff threats from Trump against Mexico, Canada, and China may have a manageable impact on China's exports and GDP, with estimated reductions of 3.3 percentage points and 0.36 percentage points respectively [3] - The market's tolerance for external disturbances is expected to increase as risk appetite improves, and Trump's focus remains on domestic policies rather than US-China tensions [3] - The new tariffs on Chinese imports are projected to reduce China's export growth by approximately 3 percentage points for the year 2025, particularly affecting textiles, toys, and footwear [6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a recovery driven by policy signals and improving demand, suggesting a potential upward cycle for leading brands [7] - The home furnishing sector is seeing improvements in demand, particularly in regions with flexible policies, but the recovery of the renovation market is still pending further policy support [9] - The wind power industry is expected to experience significant growth due to technological advancements and increased domestic demand, particularly in the blade manufacturing segment [18] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The current macroeconomic environment is conducive to a more sustained theme-driven market, with a focus on fundamental expectations rather than speculative trends [13] - The upcoming traditional peak season for the chemical industry is anticipated to provide investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics [19] - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by improved consumer sentiment and policy clarity, with several investment themes identified [24]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a tightening of yield space as interest rates reach historical lows, leading to increased institutional interest in various fixed income products [1] - Recent market volatility has raised concerns about potential redemption feedback from funds and wealth management products, but current data suggests that market risks remain manageable [1] - The liquidity outlook for March indicates a significant narrowing of liquidity gaps compared to February, with potential marginal improvements expected [3] Group 2: Currency and Macro Analysis - The real exchange rate of the RMB appears to have released downward pressure, with strong export performance indicating a reasonable valuation [5] - The calculated equilibrium exchange rate for the RMB is estimated to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with short-term fluctuations expected between 7.20 and 7.35 [5] - Key upcoming data points include February PMI and trade data, which will be closely monitored for their impact on the RMB [5] Group 3: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The IoT industry is expected to see sustained growth driven by edge AI, robotics, and vehicle-mounted modules, with significant demand anticipated in these areas [6] - The domestic simulation chip industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with leading firms expected to leverage both organic and inorganic growth strategies [9] - The photovoltaic sector is viewed positively due to recovering industry chain prices, resilient demand, and ongoing technological advancements [16] Group 4: Energy Sector Developments - Jiangsu province has initiated pilot projects for green electricity direct connection to battery enterprises, marking a significant step in the development of green energy supply models [12] - Investment in nuclear fusion energy is gaining momentum, with major state-owned enterprises planning significant capital injections into fusion energy projects [14] - The solid-state battery materials sector is poised for rapid growth, supported by policy signals and increasing applications in various high-end sectors [18]

Group 1: Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a transformation driven by channel changes, moving from offline to online, and from traditional retail to membership supermarkets and live-streaming e-commerce [1] - Strong listed snack companies have capitalized on the channel opportunities over the past three years, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, making snacks one of the most certain growth segments in the food and beverage sector [1] - New channels such as WeChat stores, traditional supermarket adjustments, and instant retail are developing steadily, providing new growth points for listed snack companies [1] Group 2: Storage Industry - The mainstream storage market is stabilizing, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise starting Q2 2025 due to production control by manufacturers and increased demand driven by AI [2] - The DRAM prices are anticipated to stabilize and improve in the second half of 2025, with storage module prices likely to increase ahead of wafer prices, presenting investment opportunities in the module segment [2] Group 3: Analog Chip Industry - The analog chip industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with domestic leading companies expected to enhance their platforms through both organic growth and acquisitions [4] - The report highlights the importance of observing the integration trends in the domestic analog chip market, drawing parallels with historical overseas mergers and acquisitions [4] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The demand for multi-asset ETFs in China is expected to grow, driven by the need for stable returns and a rich supply of underlying tools [5] - The development of multi-asset ETFs will progress through different stages, starting with simple performance-linked indices and evolving towards more complex models catering to specific needs [5] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The recovery of business travel demand post-Lantern Festival is supporting the recent increase in domestic ticket prices, with passenger flow on key routes recovering significantly [15] - The expectation of increased demand for travel due to economic recovery and the potential for improved utilization of wide-body aircraft on North American routes are positive indicators for airline profitability [15]