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行业周报:建材行业稳增长方案出台,积极布局建材机会-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 12:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments have jointly issued the "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which aims to stabilize growth and promote transformation. Key goals include achieving over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 and establishing "zero external electricity, zero carbon emissions" demonstration factories [3][4] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion into coatings and waterproof sectors) [3][4] - The cement sector is expected to benefit from the "Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Special Action Plan" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, which aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index fell by 2.11% in the week from September 22 to September 26, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 13.80%, while the building materials index increased by 10.96%, underperforming by 2.84 percentage points [4][11] - The average PE ratio for the building materials sector is 28.92 times, ranking it 15th from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.32 times, ranking it 8th from the bottom [17][21] Cement Sector - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 287.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio reached 70.17%, up by 5.06 percentage points [22][23] - Regional price trends show increases in various areas, with the highest increase in the southwest region at 7.67% [22][23] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of September 26, 2025, was 1283.80 yuan/ton, up by 6.19% from the previous period. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.60%, with a total of 53.29 million weight boxes [73][75] - The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 125.00 yuan/weight box [77] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranges from 3400 to 4000 yuan/ton, with variations depending on the region and specific product type [6][4] Consumer Building Materials - As of September 26, 2025, the price of crude oil was 72.09 USD/barrel, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.76%. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton [6][4]
南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报:供应政策预期,盘面反复-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 12:49
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].
黑色建材周报:市场情绪反复,玻碱震荡偏弱-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass market is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with slight inventory reduction but limited overall changes. The glass price is volatile due to macro policies, while the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro policies and peak-season demand [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash persists. With the ignition of Yuanxing Phase II, the supply pressure will increase. Focus on whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, and monitor new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, the glass main contract 2601 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,252 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 2.88% increase. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,178 yuan/ton, a 14.9 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [1][5]. - This week, the soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1,293 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 1.93% decrease. The downstream demand for soda ash was stable, mainly for pre - holiday rigid restocking [1][5]. Supply - This week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25% increase from the previous week [1][17]. - This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from the previous week; the output was 776,900 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous week [2][17]. Demand - This week, the glass trading sentiment was boosted by macro policies. The futures and spot markets resonated, with downstream prices rising and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. There was pre - holiday rigid restocking, and the production - sales ratio improved [1][19]. - This week, the downstream of soda ash mainly engaged in pre - holiday rigid restocking. The photovoltaic glass and float glass operations were stable, with no obvious changes in production lines [2][19]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease from the previous week, indicating inventory reduction [1][23]. - This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, showing inventory reduction [2][23].
研判2025!中国夹层玻璃工艺流程、市场政策、产业链、供需现状、市场规模、竞争格局及发展趋势分析:国产夹层玻璃市场占有率高达98.75%[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-28 01:45
Overview - The laminated glass market in China is expected to reach a demand of 110.746 million square meters and a market size of 21.717 billion yuan in 2024, with a production volume of 157.651 million square meters [1][10] - The demand for laminated glass is driven by increasing national income levels and safety awareness, leading to its widespread application in construction and automotive sectors [1][10] Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the development of the glass industry, including standards and guidelines aimed at promoting safety and sustainability [6] Industry Chain - The laminated glass industry chain includes upstream suppliers of raw materials like quartz sand and soda ash, midstream manufacturers of laminated glass, and downstream applications in construction, automotive, and other sectors [9] Current Market Situation - The construction sector accounts for nearly 50% of the laminated glass demand, with significant applications in residential, commercial, and public buildings [9][10] - The automotive sector is also a growing market for laminated glass, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles [10] Competitive Landscape - The laminated glass market in China is highly competitive, with domestic companies like Fuyao Glass, Xinyi Glass, and Flat Glass leading the market, achieving a domestic market share of 98.75% by 2024 [10][12] - Fuyao Glass reported a revenue of 21.450 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with automotive glass accounting for 91.10% of its revenue [12] - Flat Glass achieved a revenue of 7.737 billion yuan in the same period, with a gross profit margin of 14.05% [12] Future Trends - The laminated glass industry is expected to see increased consolidation as smaller, less efficient companies are phased out due to stricter environmental standards [14] - The Belt and Road Initiative is anticipated to open new international markets for Chinese laminated glass companies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [14]
建材行业稳增长工作方案发布,关注水泥、玻璃供给侧变化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-27 13:34
建筑材料 建材行业稳增长工作方案发布,关注水泥、玻璃供给侧变化 2025 年 9 月 22 日至 9 月 26 日建筑材料板块(SW)下跌 1.17%,其中 水泥(SW)下跌 0.95%,玻璃制造(SW)上涨 1.31%,玻纤制造(SW) 下跌 2.18%,装修建材(SW)下跌 1.32%,本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-1.78%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为-18.93 亿元。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 27 年 月 日 分析师 沈猛 执业证书编号:S0680522050001 邮箱:shenmeng@gszq.com 分析师 陈冠宇 执业证书编号:S0680522120005 邮箱:chenguanyu@gszq.com 分析师 张润 执业证书编号:S0680524110002 邮箱:zhangrun@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《建筑材料:上海地产政策继续优化,仍需更多地产 政策 》 2025-09-21 2、《建筑材料:债务限额提前下发,继续加强化债 》 2025-09-14 3、《建筑材料:深圳出台地产政策,玻纤行业"反内卷"》 2 ...
株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 关于取得金融机构股票回购专项贷款承诺函的公告
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旗滨集团:关于取得金融机构股票回购专项贷款承诺函的公告
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黑色建材周报:玻璃-20250926
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 11:29
交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色建材周报—玻璃 1 基本面要点 2 浮法玻璃 3 光伏玻璃 4 宏观数据 2025年09月26日 研究员:岳晋琛 交易咨询:Z0017963 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所 载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交 易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承 担任何法律责任。本 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不 得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用 ...
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Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:35
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Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 09:23
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