2025 年 12 月 17 日 "反内卷"照进现实，产业利润再分配 ---2026 年工业硅、多晶硅期货年度行情展望 张航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 风险提示：1）工业硅上游工厂超预期减产；2）多晶硅上游工厂超预期复产等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 二 〇 二 三 年 度 报告导读： 君 安 期 货 研 究 2026 年，工业硅供需预计表现出较明显的季节性特征。上半年，西南枯水期减产状态下，西北地区硅厂开工以覆盖下游需 求，整体供应端相对偏低，供需枯水期去库，但市场更多关注多晶硅环节成立平台公司之后，所执行的自律限产/限售措施，此 会对需求构成较明显的边际利空。下半年，西南地区进入丰水期，当地硅厂复产所带来的供需过剩叙事，使得工业硅价格或继续 在工厂成本线附近整理。进入 2026 年，供给政策的出台预期逐步增强，若发布工业硅供给侧改革政策，则将很大程度上改变平 衡表的过剩格局，并抬升整体的价格运行重心。全年来看，预计工业硅期货合约运行区间或在 7000-10000 元/吨。 所 反观多晶硅环节，作为国内 ...

一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 16 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8365 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.59%，持仓 增仓 1514 手至 20.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 485 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58600 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.48%，持仓 增仓 5174 手至 14.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 6300 元/ 吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长，减 产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中在 套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易所 针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场关 于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩和 仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注册 基础上， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for industrial silicon is to short on rallies [1] - For polysilicon, some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides detailed fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot prices, profits, inventories, and raw material costs [2] - It also presents macro and industry news, such as the power supply situation and electricity consumption forecasts [2][4] - The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with -1 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price is 8,365 yuan/ton, with a change of -655 compared to T - 22; PS2605 closing price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 570 from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot has different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and polysilicon spot has a discount against N - type re - investment material [2] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52300 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2919.5 yuan/ton and - 5344 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventories**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 56.1 tons, enterprise inventory is 18.7 tons, and industry inventory is 74.8 tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 29.3 tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with little change in most cases [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - This year, the national power supply has remained safe and stable, and the annual social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh [2][4] - In 2025, the national total power generation installed capacity will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a 14% year - on - year increase, and the social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time [4] 3. Trend Intensities - Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view; polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish view [4]

Macro - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated short-term U.S. Treasury purchases, indicating a slower pace of rate cuts in the coming year [3][18] - The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is being monitored for potential interest rate hikes, which could lead to a sell-off in "yen carry trades," impacting global risk assets, particularly U.S. dollar assets [3][18] Fundamentals - Domestic TC prices for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, with ongoing long-term contract negotiations expected to be unfavorable for smelters [4][19] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for December is 1.1688 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.96% and a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [4][19] - In October, net imports of refined copper fell by 31.56% year-on-year to 257,200 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 6.81% month-on-month to 196,600 tons [4][19] - As of December 12, global visible copper inventories increased by 18,000 tons to 813,000 tons, with LME inventories rising by 3,350 tons to 165,900 tons [4][19] Price Outlook - Despite a warm macro environment supported by the Fed's rate cuts, there is a discrepancy between market expectations for copper prices and current fundamentals, leading to short-term risks [5][20] - Market attention is shifting towards potential interest rate actions from the Bank of Japan, which may introduce macroeconomic volatility [5][20] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel prices have slightly decreased, while domestic refined nickel consumption is projected to drop by 30.57% month-on-month to 22,900 tons [21] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have included stainless steel products in the export license management scope, which may impact future exports [21] - LME nickel inventories decreased by 312 tons to 253,032 tons, while domestic nickel inventories increased, indicating a mixed supply situation [21] Aluminum - Aluminum oxide futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.3% week-on-week [22] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons in December, with production increasing by 6.8% month-on-month [22] - High prices and environmental regulations are suppressing demand, leading to a slight decrease in processing plant operating rates [23] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping by 4.2% week-on-week [24] - Weekly production of industrial silicon increased by 970 tons to 82,200 tons, while polysilicon production decreased by 140 tons to 26,300 tons [25] - Inventory levels for industrial silicon have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [26] Lithium Carbonate - Recent regulatory changes regarding lithium carbonate futures have been approved, which may affect market dynamics [27] - Weekly lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% to 98,210 tons, while demand for ternary materials has decreased [28] - Social inventory levels continue to decline, indicating a tightening supply situation despite fluctuations in market sentiment [29]

来源：SMM硅世界；作者：陆敏萍。 根据市场反馈了解，12月5日至12月11日： 新疆地区样本硅厂周度产量在42560吨，周度开工率在88%，较上周环比增加。周内新疆样本硅企产量 增加主因上周新增硅炉产量释放。周初工业硅期货价格大幅下挫，疆内硅企跟跌出货意愿低，企业挺价 情绪强，硅价低位北方几家大厂有协商自律意愿。冬季空气污染多发，石河子重污染天气橙色预警对区 域内硅企生产产生影响，关注下周新疆地区开工率变化。 云南样本硅企周度产量在2830吨，周度开工率24%，较上周微降。样本选取原因云南样本硅企周度开工 率高于地区总开工率。 四川样本硅企周度产量为1840吨，周度开工率在16%。样本开工率较上周下降。抛去样本内大厂，剩余 硅企开工率降低至6%附近。开工率大幅下降主因上个周期减产缩量，四川在产硅企季节性减产，在产 硅企寥寥。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：SMM硅世界；作者：陆敏萍。 根据市场反馈了解，12月5日至12月11日： 新疆地区样本硅厂周度产量在42560吨，周度开工率在88%，较上周环比增 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点评 11 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 8285 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.06%，持仓 减仓 24683 手至 14.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 565 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 55765 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.32%，持仓 增仓 9032 手至 11.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 3465 元/ 吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中在套保单或 未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上延续高库 存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。近月仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏 高给予当前近月支撑，叠加收储公司注册消息给予情绪推动，晶硅延续高 位格局。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8250 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.19%，持仓 减仓 13514 手至 17.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 23 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 600 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 55915 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.62%，持仓减仓 13915 手至 54959 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩 至 3615 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。近月仓单增长较慢，盘 面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，叠加收储公司注册消息给予情绪推动，晶 硅延续高位格局。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are bearish, with supply remaining high despite a reduction in production scheduling, and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,350 for the 2605 contract [6]. - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. Bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline as wafer production, cell production, and component production all continue to decrease. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55,035 - 56,795 for the 2605 contract [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, a 3.29% decrease from the previous week. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 72,000 tons, a 12.19% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining low. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season. - Basis: On December 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 945 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 182,500 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory was 131,000 tons, a 1.55% increase [6]. - Market trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer production was 11.95GW, a 0.58% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 213,000 tons, a 9.23% increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.07GW, a 4.72% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profit state [11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,700 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: On December 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,300 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market trend: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline compared to the previous day, with the decline rate ranging from 1.08% to 2.08%. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase compared to the previous day, with the increase rate ranging from 10.47% to 109.67%. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number was 7,780, a 3.35% increase from the previous day. The weekly DMC production was 49,200 tons, with no change from the previous day. The daily capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, with no change. The daily DMC price was 13,600 yuan/ton, with no change [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Some contracts showed an increase, and some showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with the change rate ranging from - 0.71% to 0.55%. - Basis: The change in the basis of each contract was different, with the change rate ranging from - 10.00% to 9.21%. - Other indicators: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.56% increase from the previous week [20]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report presents the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon from 2019 - 2025, as well as the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warehouse receipts from 2018 - 2025 [23][29]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the price trends of the polysilicon market from 2025, including the main contract price, basis, and inventory trends [26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Production: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production trends by specification from 2023 - 2025, and the production capacity utilization rate trends of different regions [33]. - Cost: It presents the cost - profit trends of sample regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) from 2022 - 2025 [40]. Polysilicon - The report shows the cost trends of the polysilicon industry from 2023 - 2025, including the price trends of different types of polysilicon, inventory, monthly production, monthly demand, and monthly capacity utilization rate [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance. - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and balance [42][45]. Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [71]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC price and production: It shows the DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends from 2019 - 2025. - Downstream product prices: It shows the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 from 2022 - 2025. - Import - export and inventory: It shows the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC from 2019 - 2025 [48][50][54]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: It shows the waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit trends from 2019 - 2025. - Inventory and production: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly production start rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots from 2019 - 2025. - Demand: It shows the monthly production and sales volume trends of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels from 2018 - 2025 [58][61][63]. Polysilicon Downstream - Wafer: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of wafers from 2021 - 2025. - Cell: It shows the price, production scheduling and actual production, weekly inventory, production start rate, and export trends of cells from 2022 - 2025. - Photovoltaic component: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components from 2021 - 2025. - Photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, import - export trends of photovoltaic films and glass, monthly production trends of photovoltaic glass, and import - export trends of welding strips from 2021 - 2025. - Component cost - profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components, including silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit from 2024 - 2025. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation from 2019 - 2025 [74][77][80].

作者： 王育武 工业硅： 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 2025-12-10，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8305元/吨，最后收于8250元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（-185）元/吨，变化（-2.19）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓171757手，2025-12-10仓单 总数为7780手，较前一日变化252手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM报道，本周硅煤价格目前仍维持暂稳运行，但近期在原煤及焦煤价格波动下行的情况下，预 计部分地区硅煤价格后续将有松动的趋势。目前新疆无粘结硅煤均价约825元/吨、粘结硅煤价格区间约 1300-1650元/吨，陕西硅煤均价约880元/吨，内蒙古硅煤均价约1260元/吨，甘肃硅混煤均价约930元/ 吨、 ...