美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯当地时间13日在接受德国媒体采访时表示，美国和欧盟之间的新贸易协议虽已达成，但欧盟内部对此有很多不满 的声音。并且由于关税影响，协议将会导致欧盟输美商品价格上涨，而这部分关税负担最终可能将会由美国消费者承担。 哈祖斯援引德国经济研究所的一项研究称，即使欧盟不对美国采取报复性关税，美国也可能会"自吞苦果"，因为美国加征关税目录中，很大一部分商品是美 国特别依赖欧盟供应的商品，这些商品在新贸易协议生效后，价格会上涨，而这些额外成本，最终都会落到美国消费者身上。目前美国对欧盟进口的核反应 堆部件、起重机、卡车等商品的依赖性较强，暂时没有更好的替代来源。 哈佛大学经济学教授肯尼斯·罗戈，曾经在国际货币基金组织担任首席经济学家，他在接受德国《商报》采访时称，未来5年美国可能会出现严重的债务危 机，目前在美国投资不是一个安全的选择。 0:00 美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯表示，美国总统特朗普推出加征关税政策之后宣称，这一关税政策只对美国有利，相关的负担完全由外国来承 担。但事实上，这一说法站不住脚。 哈佛经济学教授：美关税政策效果适得其反 罗戈说，目前美国国债飙升速度令人难 ...

Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified volatility near historical highs, with expectations of increased fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals, particularly gold, is expected to continue, supported by central bank buying and a complex global trade environment [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures notes that despite a rebound in the U.S. August CPI, the overall data remains mild and aligns with market expectations, highlighting the fragility of the U.S. labor market. This has solidified market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Southwest Futures emphasizes that the current global trade and financial environment is complex, with significant uncertainty regarding tariffs. The trends of "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization" are favorable for gold's investment and hedging value [1] - UBS forecasts that gold prices will rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by favorable market conditions and increased ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Galaxy Futures suggests that the recent bullish factors for precious metals are nearing full realization, which may lead to increased volatility in the market [1] - UBS analysts indicate that the recent surge in gold prices, following a breakout from a consolidation pattern, confirms the effectiveness of the upward movement, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2] - Jefferies highlights that a weak dollar presents a significant opportunity for gold, as a declining dollar typically correlates with rising gold prices [2]

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that President Trump's tariff policies, immigration controls, and tax and spending legislation will increase unemployment and inflation rates while suppressing overall economic growth this year [1][3] - The CBO's updated economic forecast indicates a downward revision of the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and overall growth rate compared to earlier predictions made before Trump's inauguration [3][5] GDP Growth Projections - The CBO expects the real GDP growth rate to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.4% this year, a further reduction from the initial forecast of 1.9% [5] - The decline in GDP growth is attributed to new tariff policies and reduced immigration leading to a slowdown in consumer spending [5] - The report anticipates a rebound in GDP growth to 2.2% by 2026, stabilizing at 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 [5] Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are reported to have increased the prices of consumer goods and services, thereby weakening household purchasing power and raising production costs for businesses reliant on imports [5] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist noted that the effects of the tariff policy will continue to manifest in the coming months, predicting weak growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [7] Government Response - A White House spokesperson expressed confidence that tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and energy expansion policies will yield positive results in Trump's second term, countering the pessimistic forecasts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has evolved beyond its traditional role as a safe-haven asset to become a barometer for the global economy and financial markets [2][3] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - In uncertain times, gold remains the preferred asset, but its role is changing as investors view it as a hedge against inflation and a gauge for various risks, including central bank policies and geopolitical tensions [3] - Gold prices have surged over 38% this year, while silver has increased by over 42%, indicating strong market activity [3] - Key factors driving the recent rise in gold prices include significant accumulation by central banks, with gold now representing a larger share of reserves than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, reflecting strong confidence in gold's long-term value [3] - Gold-backed ETFs recorded a net inflow of $5 billion in August alone, marking the highest inflow since 2020, signaling renewed interest from institutional investors [3] - Despite being a non-yielding asset, gold remains attractive as inflation in major economies continues to exceed targets [3] - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by central banks may further boost gold prices, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% increase in gold prices by 2025, potentially reaching $3,800 per ounce by year-end [3] Group 2: Jewelry Demand and Economic Factors - There is uncertainty regarding changes in gold jewelry demand, which accounts for 40% of overall gold consumption, as consumer interest has waned [4] - The second quarter saw the weakest gold jewelry demand since Q3 2020, primarily due to high prices [4] - Despite this, gold maintained its upward trend from January to April, and silver continued to grow, largely driven by strong demand from the photovoltaic industry [4] - The lack of new catalysts for price increases in recent months may change with anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could benefit both metals [4] - A weaker dollar is expected to make gold more affordable globally [4] Group 3: Regional Insights - India's gold and silver imports began to recover in July, with plans to reform the Goods and Services Tax (GST) potentially boosting consumption ahead of the festive and wedding season [5] - The outlook for gold and silver remains positive, with a preference for gold over silver, especially as gold tends to perform better following Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]

Group 1 - The trend of overseas "long money" favoring Chinese assets is increasingly evident, with significant inflows from global hedge funds and foreign investors into China's stock and bond markets [1][4] - In August, foreign investors contributed nearly $45 billion to emerging market portfolios, with China receiving a substantial portion of this, totaling a net inflow of $39 billion in bonds and stocks [1][4] - Experts indicate that this influx reflects a systematic reassessment of China's economic fundamentals and long-term growth potential, transitioning from mere trading opportunities to a structural trend [1][4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. investors' interest in Chinese stocks has reached a five-year high, suggesting a potential increase in capital inflows into the Chinese market [2][4] - Various financial institutions, including HSBC and S&P Global, have expressed positive outlooks on China's market, reinforcing the general optimism among foreign investors [2][4] - Increased research activities by foreign institutions indicate a commitment to understanding the Chinese market better, with many conducting on-site investigations and deep discussions with company management [2][3] Group 3 - Foreign capital is actively increasing its positions in Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs reporting a net inflow of $6.36 billion into global equity funds and $6.55 billion specifically into Chinese domestic equity funds [3][4] - The global capital market is undergoing a rebalancing, with funds shifting from U.S. stocks to other major markets, particularly A-shares and H-shares, which are seen as undervalued [3][4] - Significant advancements in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and 5G communications are attracting foreign investment, highlighting China's growth potential [3][4] Group 4 - The sustained inflow of overseas "long money" into China is based on a deep recognition of the long-term value of the Chinese market, supported by resilient economic fundamentals and favorable policies [4][6] - China's economy has shown strong resilience amid global challenges, with various economic indicators steadily improving, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment [4][5] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and enhancing the investment environment are further encouraging foreign capital to enter the market [4][5] Group 5 - The valuation advantage of Chinese assets is becoming increasingly prominent, with A-shares and H-shares trading at lower price-to-earnings ratios compared to U.S. markets, presenting significant upside potential [5][6] - The current P/E ratio for the CSI 300 Index is approximately 14.31, while the Hang Seng Index stands at about 11.97, both significantly lower than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [5][6] - The combination of various factors is expected to solidify the trend of "buying China" into a long-term and normalized development [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has increased by 39% year to date and surged 8% in the past month, indicating strong momentum [1] - Gold has become a safe haven for investors amid rising geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and global trade chaos [1] - Central banks globally are accumulating gold to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, a trend that began after the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] Group 2: Central Bank Accumulation - Central banks and sovereign institutions have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, with no signs of slowing down [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council revealed that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, and 95% expect overall gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest asset in central banks' reserves, now accounting for 20% [5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, which would weaken the dollar and increase gold demand, further driving up prices [6][7] - Futures traders estimate a 92% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, which would make gold cheaper for international buyers [7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF, with approximately $2 billion in assets, offers a diversified investment in gold-related stocks and has doubled in price this year [8] - The ETF's top holdings include Newmont (15%), Agnico Eagle Mines (14%), Barrick Mining (8%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (7%) [10] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold could reach $5,000 an ounce if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence grow [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year next week, with a continued easing expected through the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that while the upcoming rate cut cycle may be straightforward this year, complexities may arise in 2026 due to factors such as a shift to loose fiscal policy, dovish tendencies of the new Fed chair, and productivity gains driven by AI [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is currently showing signs of softening, with a composite indicator reflecting unemployment rates, job vacancies, turnover rates, and survey data indicating a potential decline after a brief stabilization in late 2024/early 2025 [2] - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that inflation in labor-intensive sectors will gradually decline due to a weak labor market suppressing wage growth, even as core PCE may temporarily rise to 3.2% due to tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - As policy rates approach 3%, the Fed's decision-making will become more complex, with multiple intersecting factors at play unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market or signs of recession [3] - The financial conditions index in the U.S. has eased by 75 basis points since early June, with the stock market being the largest contributor [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will gradually re-accelerate to potential growth levels by 2026, supported by reduced tariff drag and a shift to more expansionary fiscal policy, with AI technology playing a crucial role in determining growth levels [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the comprehensive upgrade of CICC Research's digital investment research platform, enhancing accessibility and efficiency for global clients [4][10][15]. Group 1: Platform Features - The upgraded platform offers "one-click" access to conferences and events, allowing clients to register, set reminders, and listen to recordings in multiple languages [8]. - The search function for reports and charts has been optimized to improve efficiency and better meet customer demands for investment research [10]. - Dedicated pages for research teams and analysts have been introduced, clearly listing their research coverage and sector top picks [12][13]. Group 2: Publications and Resources - Major publications from CICC Research are now available online, showcasing the depth of the research team's expertise [15]. - Selected premium articles and videos from forums and conferences are provided to overseas clients, enhancing the resource offerings [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Research Insights - The platform offers daily updates on research focuses and timely articles through CICC Morning Report [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. - The platform includes over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. Data and Research Framework - CICC's platform provides more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases [10]. - It includes a sophisticated data dashboard and AI search capabilities for efficient data retrieval and analysis [10].