Core Insights - The actual tariff rate for U.S. imports in May was 8.3%, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast of 10% to 15% [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff rates will trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July, with implications for inflation [1] - Key factors contributing to the lower-than-expected actual tariff rate include transportation delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a significant decline in imports from emerging markets [1] Economic Impact - The expected increase in effective tariff rates in June and July is likely to have a more pronounced effect on U.S. inflation [1] - Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically manifests 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the economic growth repercussions are observed within 3 months [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that tariffs could lead to a price increase of approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months, which may gradually dissipate as demand weakens [1]

格隆汇8月4日｜高盛周日重申了其对布伦特原油价格的预测，预计2025年第四季度平均每桶64美元， 2026年平均每桶56美元，但预计近期事态发展将使其基线预测的风险范围越来越大。该投行称："俄罗 斯和伊朗受到制裁的石油供应压力加大，对我们的价格预测构成上行风险，特别是考虑到闲置产能的正 常化速度快于预期。"然而，高盛指出，由于美国关税税率上调、额外二级关税的威胁以及美国经济活 动数据疲弱，其2025-2026年日均需求增长预估存在下行风险。高盛还表示："虽然欧佩克+的政策仍然 灵活，但我们认为该组织将在9月后保持其生产配额不变，因为我们预计经合组织商业库存的增加速度 将加快，季节性需求的顺风将消退。" （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

说港股是因为，过去很长时间，港股都是带领A股向上走，几乎每次行情都是港股先行，A股尾随在其后，如果说港股真的趋势出现向下逆转，那对A股也 必然产生不利的影响，这是一个风险点。 一、证监会传来两条消息，我没有一个明确的点位，但是从心理预期上而言，我觉得最起码应该到4000点之上吧，说这话不是我凭空猜想，因为目前无论对 国家经济还是个人，太需要一波力度较大的行情了。 大家都希望在当前这种赚钱难的情况下，通过金融市场获得一次财富增长的机会，如果这波行情上去了，会解决很多当下的困境，从这个角度而言，最近证 监会也都明确了要巩固资本市场向好的势头，引导好的预期，从政策层面看，上面是有决心让这波多头趋势延续。 二、看了一下港股，恒生指数最近三个交易日的下跌，将此前的下跌形态有点破坏的意思。 因为已经跌破了20日线，下周就要考验60日线了，倘若恒生指数60日线跌破回不去的话，预示着麻烦就来了，也预示港股趋势向下逆转的可能性。#夏季图 文激励计划# 四、创业板指探底回升跌0.24%，医药板块表现强势，明天的A股涨跌直接定调！ 今年的行情有个特点，市场从周期上看肯定是牛市，每天一万多亿的成交量，就很说明问题了。但这个牛市吧，基 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the US-China Business Council focused on US-China economic relations, macroeconomic policies, and financial market openness [1] - The PBOC emphasized the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation between China and the US, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping [1] - The PBOC is committed to high-level financial openness and continuously optimizing the investment environment for foreign enterprises [1] Group 2 - The US-China Business Council expressed strong confidence in China's reform and opening-up measures and is dedicated to long-term investment in China [1] - The council aims to play a positive role in promoting win-win economic cooperation between China and the US [1] - Representatives from major firms like Goldman Sachs and PwC participated in the discussions, indicating strong interest from foreign companies in the Chinese market [1]

这一预测面临双向风险：一方面，对俄罗斯和伊朗供应的制裁可能带来上行风险；另一方面，美国的关 税政策、二级制裁威胁以及疲软的经济数据构成下行风险。 高盛的报告还指出，OPEC+在当前阶段"保持灵活"，未来可能根据形势发展进一步增产或重新减产。 布伦特原油期货周一亚洲早盘下跌0.6%，报69.29美元/桶。 来源:金融界 高盛预计OPEC+在9月之后将维持产量配额不变。此前，OPEC+同意9月份再次大幅增加石油产量，幅 度为54.7万桶/日。 高盛分析师在8月3日的报告中指出，经合组织国家的原油库存可能加速上升，同时季节性需求支撑正在 逐步减弱。 高盛维持油价预测不变，预计布伦特原油今年第四季度平均水平为64美元/桶，2026年将跌至56美元/ 桶。 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was reported at 3.0%, significantly exceeding the mainstream forecast of 2.5%, but this figure is misleading due to a sharp 30.3% drop in imports, which artificially inflated the GDP data [1] - The core indicator of domestic private final purchases has seen a decline in annual growth rate from 2.7% last year to 1.2%, indicating underlying economic weakness despite the seemingly strong GDP figure [1] Consumer Behavior - Actual personal consumption growth increased from 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, but this is still below last year's robust performance, with service consumption remaining weak, only slightly recovering by 1.1% [3] - Despite acceptable income and savings levels, consumer and investor sentiment is cautious due to various uncertainties, leading to a reluctance to increase spending [5] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment growth has significantly slowed, with construction investment plummeting by 10.3% in Q2 following a 2.4% decline in Q1, while residential investment also fell by 4.6% [5] - Inventory changes further illustrate economic volatility, with inventory contributing 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1 but detracting 3.2 percentage points in Q2 [6] Inflation and Economic Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose to 2.54% in Q2, exceeding market expectations, which has led to more conservative spending and investment behaviors among households and businesses [8] - The economic landscape in the first half of 2025 has been characterized by significant fluctuations, with contrasting trends in imports and inventory affecting market sentiment and analyst predictions [8] Emerging Sectors - Surprisingly, sectors such as AI and data centers have not emerged as engines of economic growth, with reduced investments in power plants and a slowdown in data center and IT investments [9] Employment and Income Relevance - For the general public, GDP figures are less relevant than personal employment and income, as the true impact of economic conditions is reflected in daily life [11]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. non-farm payroll report has reignited expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant rally in U.S. Treasury prices after a month of declines [1][2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking a historic downward revision of 90% [1][2]. - This weak employment data has led traders to heavily bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with futures markets pricing in an 84% chance of a cut next month, up from less than 40% before the report [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market reacted strongly, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping over 25 basis points, the largest decline since December 2023, indicating a significant price rebound [6][7]. - The yield curve steepening strategy, which involves betting on the widening spread between short-term and long-term yields, has become attractive again for investors following the employment report [6][7][8]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Market participants are now anticipating multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [8][12]. - The pricing in the interest rate swap market suggests a cumulative cut of 61 basis points by December, with aggressive traders betting on a repeat of last year's rate cut scenario [12][13]. Group 4: Broader Market Sentiment - The weak employment data has shifted market sentiment, moving away from the "bad news is good news" narrative that previously supported equity valuations, as the focus returns to the negative implications of economic weakness [16][17]. - Institutional investors have been major buyers of U.S. Treasuries following the employment report, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and positioning [17][18].

Group 1 - The incident involving the detainment of a Wells Fargo executive at Pudong Airport highlights the intensifying financial battle between China and the U.S. over technology sovereignty [1] - In 2022, Wells Fargo's Shanghai branch facilitated $4 billion in cross-border business, with $240 million in factoring financing linked to a sanctioned chip company, revealing the use of "financial camouflage" tactics by international investment banks [1] - New regulations effective from June have included factoring business in the cross-border capital flow monitoring system, with 62% of the $27.8 billion in anti-money laundering fines in the first seven months related to false trade financing [1][3] Group 2 - BlackRock's recent ban on employees bringing electronic devices into the country reflects a collective anxiety regarding data security, reminiscent of past incidents where financial maneuvers led to indirect control over technology [2] - The timing of the detainment of the Wells Fargo executive and the arrest of a Chinese semiconductor expert by Italy illustrates a pattern of "mirror enforcement" in international relations, emphasizing the strategic financial implications of these actions [2] - The ongoing technology blockade has revealed the U.S. strategy of using financial innovation as a tool for technology theft, prompting Chinese regulators to establish strict boundaries to protect hard technology and financial data security [3] Group 3 - The silent financial war is reshaping international capital flow rules, with data being likened to oil in the modern era and financial tools evolving into weapons of technological warfare [4] - China's actions signal a commitment to safeguarding national sovereignty, indicating that any capital arbitrage activities will be scrutinized and exposed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhu Haibin as the Assistant President (Economic Research) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is a significant development, indicating a focus on macroeconomic and financial stability research in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Zhu Haibin will officially take up the role on October 1, 2025, following the recommendation of the HKMA's governing committee [3]. - His appointment comes after the resignation of Zhang Liling, who left the position for personal reasons [6]. Group 2: Background of Zhu Haibin - Zhu Haibin holds a Bachelor's degree in Information Management from Peking University, a Master's degree in Economics from the People's Bank of China, and a PhD in Economics from Duke University [5]. - He has extensive experience in economic research, particularly in macroeconomic and financial stability policy research for Mainland China and Hong Kong [5]. - Prior to joining HKMA, Zhu served as Managing Director and Chief Economist for China at JPMorgan Chase, and he has also worked as a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements [5]. Group 3: HKMA Overview - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, through the merger of the Exchange Fund and the Office of the Commissioner of Banking [6]. - Its main functions include maintaining monetary stability under the linked exchange rate system, promoting the stability and soundness of the banking system, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].