Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and significantly raises the target price from HKD 27 to HKD 39, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and stable costs [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China accounts for approximately 60% of global aluminum supply, with production capacity capped at around 45 million tons since the supply-side reform in 2017 [1]. - The industry capacity utilization rate reached a ten-year high of 99% in September 2025 and remained at 98.6% in October [1]. - Global supply growth is expected to remain constrained in the next 3-6 months due to slow progress in new overseas capacities, such as in Indonesia [1]. Group 2: Demand Forecast - End-user demand in sectors like electric vehicles, power equipment, and electronics remains resilient, supporting rising aluminum prices [1]. - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow by 2.1% and 1.7% in the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, while supply is expected to grow only by 1.7% and 1.3% during the same periods [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Based on a more optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, CMB International has raised its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 4-5% [2]. - A 1% increase in aluminum prices is estimated to boost the company's profits by 3%, while a 1% decrease in coal prices could enhance profits by 0.4% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong free cash flow, supporting a 60% dividend payout ratio, and aims to achieve a near net cash balance sheet by the end of 2026 [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 6%, which is considered attractive [2]. - Although the expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 is around 10 times, CMB International believes there is still upside potential due to favorable short-term industry dynamics and significant improvements in the balance sheet [2].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited, the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, has launched its Hong Kong IPO, attracting significant backing from top global investors, signaling a positive trend for the recovering Hong Kong IPO market [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company aims to raise up to HKD 5.5 billion (approximately USD 707 million) through the IPO, which has garnered commitments from cornerstone investors including Glencore, Hillhouse Capital, and Millennium Management, who have agreed to subscribe to about USD 336 million worth of shares, nearly half of the maximum fundraising amount [1][2]. - The IPO price range is set between HKD 10.18 and HKD 10.99 per share, with the listing expected on November 24 [2]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately half of the net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated for overseas expansion, while the remaining funds will be used for green energy projects, working capital, and general corporate purposes [2]. Group 3: Business Model and Performance - Innovation International focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, with a significant cost advantage due to its strategic locations in Inner Mongolia and Shandong [3]. - The company achieved an alumina self-sufficiency rate of 84% and an electricity self-sufficiency rate of 88% in 2024, well above industry averages [3]. - From 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit increased from RMB 913 million to RMB 2.63 billion, although it faced a 14.4% decline in net profit to RMB 856 million in the first five months of 2025 due to rising coal prices [3]. Group 4: Customer Dependency - Innovation International has a significant reliance on a single major customer, Innovation New Materials, which accounted for 78.8% and 76.6% of its total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]. - The revenue from the top five customers represented 86.6% of total revenue in 2024, significantly higher than peers like Tianshan Aluminum and Yun Aluminum [4]. Group 5: Corporate Structure - Prior to the IPO, the company underwent internal restructuring, with its chairman, Cui Lixin, holding 100% of the shares through Bloomsbury Holding before the IPO, and is expected to retain about 75% post-listing [5].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (02788.HK), an electrolytic aluminum producer from Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, is set to launch its IPO from November 14 to November 19, 2025, with a listing date on November 24, 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections IPO Details - The company plans to issue 500 million shares, representing 25% of the total shares post-IPO, with 90% allocated for international offering and 10% for public offering [4][5]. - The share price is expected to range from HKD 10.18 to HKD 10.99, with a maximum fundraising target of approximately HKD 54.95 billion [4][5]. - The entry fee for investors is HKD 5,550.42 for a board lot of 500 shares [4]. Financial Projections - Assuming a median share price of HKD 10.58 and full exercise of the over-allotment option, the total estimated expenses for the IPO are around HKD 197.5 million [5]. - The net proceeds from the IPO are projected to be approximately HKD 51.13 billion, with 50% allocated for expanding overseas production capacity, 40% for green energy projects, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [5][9]. Company Background - Established in 2012, Innovation Industry focuses on high-value segments of the aluminum industry chain, primarily producing and selling electrolytic aluminum and alumina [8]. - The company is the third-largest electrolytic aluminum producer in North China and the twelfth largest in China, with a designed production capacity of 788,100 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.2 million tons of alumina annually [9]. - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate in electricity, approximately 88%, compared to the industry average of 57%, and is expanding its renewable energy capacity with ongoing projects in wind and solar power [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, and the absolute value of social inventory is still low, which is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio. However, the domestic price increase lacks fundamental data support, and a short - term callback after the sentiment may occur, but the callback depth is limited. If the destocking of social inventory goes smoothly, the aluminum price is expected to break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply of bauxite is under pressure, the smelting loss has not improved, the supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, the pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the price is undervalued, there may be disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a change of 285 yuan/ton. The highest price was 22,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,292 lots, and the open interest was 446,659 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,742 tons, with a change of 924 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, with a change of 9,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,925 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,825 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 17 yuan/ton (0.60% change). The highest price was 2,847 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,811 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 299,017 lots, and the open interest was 407,444 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone aims to establish itself as a leading hub for the aluminum industry, focusing on green development and collaboration within the Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Chongqing regions by implementing the "1433" action plan [1][2][3] Group 1: Action Plan "1433" - "1" refers to enhancing the green industry brand, emphasizing the integration of renewable energy sources to increase green electricity supply and reduce carbon emissions [1] - "4" highlights four key areas for investment attraction: automotive aluminum components, aluminum sheets and foils, aluminum wires and cables, and high-end architectural decoration materials [1] - "3" involves three major actions: attracting large enterprises, nurturing a tiered enterprise development model, and empowering technology through collaboration with research institutions [2] Group 2: Development Goals - By 2027, the goal is to gather over 500 aluminum-related trading companies and achieve a trading volume exceeding 50 billion yuan in aluminum raw materials and products [3] - The region aims to cultivate 155 large-scale enterprises with a total output value exceeding 100 billion yuan and establish a logistics center for aluminum with a throughput of over 4 million tons [3] - Guangyuan currently has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 615,000 tons, accounting for 58% of Sichuan's capacity and 39% in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with over 80 aluminum enterprises forming a complete industrial chain [3]

据天眼查APP显示，福建省闽发铝业股份有限公司成立于1997年09月15日，注册资本93863.0183万人民 币。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 数据宝统计，截至10:50，闽发铝业成交额11.69亿元，创上市以来新高。最新股价上涨4.93%，换手率 26.29%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为9.69亿元。 ...

据天眼查APP显示，福建省闽发铝业股份有限公司成立于1997年09月15日，注册资本93863.0183万人民 币。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 数据宝统计，截至10:15，闽发铝业成交额10.26亿元，创2024年1月4日以来新高。最新股价上涨 7.60%，换手率23.07%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为9.69亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a 35.4% year-on-year increase in quantity and a 37.8% increase in import value as of September 2025 [1] - Conversely, the export figures for the same category show a decline, with a 7.3% decrease in quantity and a 1.4% decrease in export value [1] Import Data Summary - In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, amounting to $1.02 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth in import quantity and value indicates a strong demand for aluminum in the domestic market [1] Export Data Summary - In September 2025, China exported 520,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, generating $1.815 billion [1] - The decline in both quantity and value of exports suggests potential challenges in international markets for Chinese aluminum products [1] Industry Context - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering quality services and market insights to support investment decisions in the aluminum industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Minfa Aluminum Industry has experienced a significant stock price surge, achieving three consecutive daily limit-ups, with a total increase of 33.00% during this period [2] Recent Stock Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the stock price reached 5.36 yuan, with a turnover rate of 18.38% and a trading volume of 1.58 billion shares, amounting to a transaction value of 8.12 billion yuan [2] - The stock's limit-up order amount was 2.58 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The total market capitalization of the company in the A-share market is now 50.31 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 46.16 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.37% [2] - The net profit for the same period was -8.1134 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 128.51% [2] - The basic earnings per share stood at -0.0086 yuan [2] Trading Data Summary - Recent trading data shows fluctuations in daily price changes and turnover rates, with notable net inflows and outflows of capital [2] - For instance, on November 12, the stock saw a daily increase of 9.93% with a net capital inflow of 31.87 million yuan, while on November 11, it experienced a decrease of 3.82% with a net outflow of 30.19 million yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center continuing to shift downward in a weak supply - demand situation and low winter storage [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, running at a high level with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and high - level pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center shifted downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong performance. With the US government reopening, the US dollar fell, and traders were waiting for economic data [1] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable. Overseas, an aluminum plant in Iceland cut production due to electrical equipment failure, and a plant in Mozambique might cut or stop production due to an energy agreement issue, leading to an expected supply tightening [2] - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - The premium of the US spot aluminum price reached a record high due to high import tariffs and global supply tightness [2] - With a positive macro - environment and expected overseas supply tightening, a large amount of funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, driving up the price. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continued. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream was weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was increasing [3]