Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - BCA Research warns that the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months, advising investors to be neutral in the short - term and underweight stocks in the medium - term, and to focus on forward - looking indicators such as analyst expectations and GPU costs [2] - Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI - driven power consumption growth is accelerating, and leading power equipment companies' order backlogs are 2.5 to 2.8 times their revenues, with profitability visibility locked until 2027 - 2028. Asian and Chinese companies with cost advantages and delivery capabilities may gain more market share and enjoy higher overseas profits [2][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures was 22,420 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at $2,990.5/ton, up 0.03%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc futures was 91,247 lots, down 2,222 lots, and the LME zinc trading volume was 14,603 lots, up 3,454 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc futures was 67,487 lots, down 14,839 lots, and the LME zinc open interest was 224,451 lots, down 3,059 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was $129.76/ton, up $29.76/ton. The import bill of lading premium was $135/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 75,314 tons, down 1,473 tons; LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, up 1,550 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 3,525 tons, up 100 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 23,736 tons, up 921 tons [1] - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,095 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] [News] - **AI Bubble Warning**: BCA Research analyzed four capital expenditure booms and summarized five collapse rules. The current AI boom shows warning signs, and the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months [2] - **Power Equipment Market**: Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI drives power consumption growth, leading to supply - demand imbalance. Asian and Chinese enterprises may benefit [2][3] [Trend Intensity] - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external "fiscal + monetary" easing policies from major economies, particularly the US and Japan, leading to a rebound in valuations and performance by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence by 2026, supported by a complete domestic AI industry chain and an influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [1] - The Hang Seng Index is currently seen as a valuation low point among major global markets, with an estimated equity risk premium (ERP) of 5.7% [1] - The expected net profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech in 2026 is 8.5% and 29.9%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for earnings recovery [1][4] Group 2: Strategic Investment Directions - Five long-term investment directions are recommended: 1) Technology sector, including AI and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare, particularly biotechnology; 3) Resource products benefiting from overseas inflation and de-dollarization; 4) Essential consumer goods expected to recover in valuation; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and high-level technological self-reliance, which is expected to support strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to reach a market value of 1.2 trillion yuan from 2024 to 2030, marking a new wave of electrification innovation [3] - The brain-computer interface sector is gaining government attention, with new policies expected to address clinical challenges [3] - The bio-manufacturing market is projected to reach a trillion-level scale, driven by continuous application expansion [3] Group 4: Performance Expectations - The market expects the performance growth of Hong Kong stocks to bottom out in 2025, with revenue and profit growth projected to reach 5.5% and 9.2% in 2026, respectively [4] - The earnings sentiment for Hong Kong stocks has begun to warm, with upward adjustments in profit forecasts since July 25 [4][5] Group 5: Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached 1.26 trillion HKD from the beginning of the year to the end of October, becoming a core driver for the market [6] - The trend of passive management funds increasing their allocation to Hong Kong stocks is evident, with a significant rise in the proportion of passive funds in the Southbound Stock Connect [6] - Retail investors are expected to play a larger role in the market, with ETF inflows into Hong Kong stocks exceeding 270 billion HKD since June [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in the fundamental outlook and significant valuation discounts [1] Long-term Investment Directions - Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] - Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] - Resource products benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths [1] - Consumer staples sector, which is relatively stagnant and undervalued, is expected to see valuation recovery [1] - Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in the fundamental outlook and significant valuation discounts [1] Long-term Investment Directions - Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] - Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] - Resource products benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths [1] - Essential consumer goods sector, which is relatively undervalued and expected to see valuation recovery as the domestic economy further recovers [1] - Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]

The US has agreed to approve sales of advanced AI semiconductors to the Emirati AI firm G42, according to two sources, in a major boost for the Gulf nation’s ambitions to be a formidable player in the technology https://t.co/G5FSn33vYm ...

Suno has faced some industry pushback, with the Recording Industry Association of America and major record labels suing it for allegedly training its AI tool on copyrighted songs.https://t.co/H1fEAWZCw9 https://t.co/ERNsK2IitL ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's partnerships with Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson highlight a growing trend in the pharmaceutical industry to leverage AI for accelerating drug discovery and enhancing healthcare operations [1][4]. Group 1: AI in Drug Discovery - Eli Lilly aims to expedite drug discovery processes by creating a new Nvidia-chip powered "supercomputer" and "AI factory" set to launch by early 2026, utilizing AI models trained on extensive experimental data [3]. - The average cost and time for new drug discovery exceed $2 billion and over a decade, respectively, indicating a significant opportunity for AI to streamline these processes [2]. Group 2: Applications in Healthcare - Johnson & Johnson's partnership with Nvidia focuses on using AI to create simulated environments for surgical teams, enhancing training and improving clinical outcomes [4]. - The potential for generative AI in the pharmaceutical and medical products sectors could unlock tens of billions in value by improving drug discovery, clinical trials, and treatment administration [5]. Group 3: Customization and Specificity - There is a growing demand for AI solutions tailored to specific business needs within the pharmaceutical industry, moving away from generic platforms [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's Chief AI Officer emphasizes the importance of proprietary data and customized AI models to drive significant advancements in drug discovery [8]. Group 4: Future of AI in Surgery - The integration of physical AI in surgical settings could lead to a hybrid model where human surgeons collaborate with robots and digital agents, potentially transforming surgical techniques [10][11]. - The World Health Organization projects a global shortfall of 11 million health workers by 2030, underscoring the need for AI to assist in healthcare delivery [10].

Core Insights - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang discussed the future of AI and its energy implications, stating that while machine learning consumes significant energy, AI will ultimately lead to energy savings through efficient computing [2] - NVIDIA is expected to report third-quarter earnings with revenue projected at approximately $55 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, reflecting growth of 56% and 59% respectively [5] - The stock has seen a decline of 15% since its peak on October 29, prompting notable investors like Softbank's Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel to sell their shares [3] Earnings Expectations - Wall Street consensus anticipates NVIDIA's revenue to be around $55 billion, with the options market indicating a potential stock movement of about 7.7% post-earnings announcement [5] - Analysts have outlined three scenarios for NVIDIA's stock movement based on earnings results, with probabilities assigned to each outcome [11] Analyst Sentiment - There is a growing pessimism among analysts regarding NVIDIA's stock, particularly due to concerns over its circular AI deals and the potential for a market bubble [7] - Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts view NVIDIA's investments in AI, including significant commitments to companies like OpenAI, as strategic moves to enhance the AI ecosystem [13] Investment Correlations - Various companies in the AI stack exhibit different levels of correlation with NVIDIA's stock performance, categorized into four tiers based on their dependency on NVIDIA [14] - Companies like Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave are highly correlated with NVIDIA's earnings, while larger diversified firms such as Microsoft and Google show lower leverage [10][14] Strategic Investments - NVIDIA's total investments in AI amount to approximately $53 billion across 170 deals from 2020 to 2025, raising questions about the nature of these investments and their impact on demand for NVIDIA's chips [8] - Huang expressed confidence in NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI, suggesting it could become a multitrillion-dollar company, highlighting the strategic importance of these investments for NVIDIA's future [12]

Elevation Capital and Paytm - Elevation Capital sold 2% of its stake in Paytm for ₹1,556 crore, marking its first sale since the fintech's 2021 listing [5][22] - The investment had previously dropped to ₹3,800 crore in February 2024 but has since recovered to a value of ₹11,150 crore [22] - Elevation has realized approximately ₹7,300 crore from Paytm shares, achieving a total paper gain close to 35x on its investment held since 2007 [3][24] Kirin Holdings and Bira 91 - Kirin Holdings is seeking to divest from B9 Beverages, the maker of Bira 91, due to financial strains and has asked founder Ankur Jain to find a new strategic investor [9][24] - Kirin, which holds a 20% stake in B9, is also looking to offload debt extended to the company [9] - The rebranding efforts for Bira 91 have led to sales disruptions, causing inventory write-offs and financial difficulties [24] Groww's Stock Performance - Groww's stock experienced a significant drop after a near 90% increase from its listing price, hitting its lower circuit limit [7][24] - The stock climbed to ₹193.80 before profit-taking triggered a rapid decline, closing just below ₹170 [24] Lightspeed Venture Partners on AI - Lightspeed's Ravi Mhatre discussed the current AI wave, emphasizing that only businesses solving real problems will endure [12][24] - Mhatre noted that India is evolving from a large user market to a hub for AI-assisted labor, automating repetitive tasks while humans manage workflows [12][24] - The firm acknowledged the existence of a valuation bubble in the AI sector but maintained that the transformation is significant and real [12][24] Raise Financial and Stratzy Acquisition - Raise Financial acquired algo trading platform Stratzy in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $4-4.5 million [20][24] - Stratzy will operate as an independent entity under Raise, enhancing Dhan's technology stack for automated investing [20][24] Meta's Legal Victory - A US judge ruled that Meta's acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp did not violate antitrust laws, allowing the company to maintain its current structure [22][24] - The ruling has restored confidence in Meta's long-term strategy and its ability to compete in the social networking space [22][24]

Group 1: AI and Technological Revolution - AI is viewed as a technological revolution, with current benefits possibly overestimated in the short term while long-term benefits may be underestimated [4][3] - The critical question remains whether AI can boost global productivity sufficiently to justify the significant investments made, which are in the trillions of US dollars [4][3] - Historical technological revolutions have shown that while they change society and boost productivity, the impact takes time to materialize [5] Group 2: US Economic Performance - The US economy maintained robust growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, despite aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks [7][8] - Two main factors contributing to this strong performance are fiscal policy, which has led to a budget deficit approaching 7%, and a substantial surge in immigration supporting the economy's supply side [8][9] - Current political polarization makes further fiscal expansion difficult, leading to a normalization and significant weakening of the US economy, with a recession probability estimated at around 30% [9] Group 3: Global Capital Shifts - There is a noticeable shift in global capital towards Chinese and European assets, driven by high US market concentration and elevated valuations [22][23] - The Chinese stock market has seen a revaluation, particularly in the technology sector, as global investors begin to recognize its potential [24] - European stocks have historically traded at a discount compared to US stocks, but recent developments suggest a potential reevaluation of this trend [27][29] Group 4: Market Valuations and Risks - Current market valuations are concerning, with a few stocks accounting for a significant portion of the US market, leading to potential market concentration risks [17] - The possibility of simultaneous crises emerging in the future requires vigilance, as current market conditions may not be sustainable [18] - The long-term sustainability of US fiscal policy is in question, with debt levels surpassing 100% of GDP and a budget deficit of 6% to 7% of GDP [13][14] Group 5: Gold and Currency Trends - Gold prices have surged, contrasting with the weakening US dollar, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank policies [19][20] - A reasonable allocation to gold in investment portfolios is suggested to be around 10% to 15%, reflecting a trend of diversification away from US dollar dependence [21] - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend indicates a long-term shift in global reserve currency dynamics, with increasing interest in alternative assets [11][19]