以下为研究报告摘要： 市场回顾：本周(2026.1.26-2026.1.30)，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，计算机指数下跌4.77%。 周观点：SpaceX申请部署百万颗卫星，剑指太空算力 (1)SpaceX申请100万颗卫星，全球低轨卫星资源竞争激烈 1月31日消息，在提交给美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)的一份最新申请中，SpaceX首次系统性披露了一项 极具颠覆性的太空基础设施建设计划，计划部署规模最多高达100万颗卫星，运行高度覆盖500公里至 2000公里。100万颗卫星计划将被部署在多个轨道层中，每一轨道层的宽度控制在50公里以内，以在密 集部署的同时，为其他潜在系统预留必要的安全间隔。而我国2025年12月向国际电联(ITU)申请了超20 万颗卫星的频轨资源，其中最大的两个星座是无线电创新院申请的CTC-1和CTC-2，卫星规模均为 96714颗。低轨卫星星座具有低时延、发射灵活度高和制造成本低等特点，是世界主要航天国家争夺空 间资源的新赛道。根据国际电联规定，关于卫星轨道位置、关键频段资源，各国按照"先登先占"的规则 竞争协调使用。可以看出，全球低地球轨道资源竞争日逐渐白热化。 (2)Space ...

2月2日，A股三大股指开盘走势分化，其中上证综指下跌38.24点，跌幅0.93%报4079.71点；深证成指下 跌77.02点，跌幅0.54%报14128.87点；沪深300指数下跌32.06点，跌幅0.68%报4674.28点；创业板指数 上涨21.79点，涨幅0.65%报3368.14点；科创50指数下跌16.59点，跌幅1.1%报1492.81点；贵金属（核心 股）板块全线走弱，晓程科技20cm跌停，恒邦股份、招金黄金、四川黄金、西部黄金、赤峰黄金等多 股跌停；电网设备板块盘初走强，顺钠股份、白云电器等多股涨停，亿能电力涨超8%，安靠智电、三 变科技、新特电力等个股跟涨；光伏（核心股）设备、航空机场、美容护理等概念涨幅居前。 盘面上，市场焦点股锋龙股份（18板）竞价跌停，复牌的嘉美包装（26天17板）低开10.01%，AI应用 端的天地在线（10天6板）高开1.45%，并购重组的湖南黄金（5板）竞价跌停，化工（核心股）股百川 股份（3板）高开3.13%、万丰股份（2板）竞价涨停，机器人（核心股）概念股天奇股份（5天3板）高 开2.18%，食品饮料板块皇台酒业（2板）低开4.33%、中信尼雅（2板）低开4 ...

面对全球竞争，中国商业航天产业在核心环节正取得扎实进展。航天科技集团六院成功完成了大推力可重 复使用发动机的关键试车，为未来低成本、高频次发射提供了"心脏"保障；同时，天兵科技等民营公司的 火箭也已进入首飞倒计时。这表明，我国产业链正朝着"规模化"发射的目标稳步迈进。 当前，卫星产业的投资逻辑已全面进入 "全球资源争夺白热化"与"国内技术产业化提速" 双轮驱动的新阶 段。SpaceX的激进计划犹如一剂强心针，打开了行业的想象天花板。卫星产业ETF(159218)作为一键覆盖火 箭、卫星、运营全产业链的投资工具，其持续巨量的资金流入，正是市场对这一关乎未来战略空间的宏大 竞争，所投下的坚定信任票。 数据显示，截至1月30日，全市场首只卫星产业ETF(159218)在短短一个月内累计净流入约25.1亿元，并已实 现连续6个月资金净流入，且势头持续增强，显示出机构与投资者将其视为长期战略配置的核心赛道。 这一空前的资金热度，源于近期一则极具颠覆性的产业催化。全球商业航天巨头SpaceX已正式向美国监管 机构提交申请，计划部署一个规模高达100万颗卫星的巨型星座。标志着竞争已进入"轨道资源"与"算力基 础设施"的终极 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54%, while the ChiNext Index opened up 0.65% [1] - Key sectors showing gains include electric grid equipment, photovoltaic, and airports, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil & gas experienced declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4079.71, down 0.93%, with 579 gainers and 1486 losers, trading volume of 101.3 million shares worth 13.951 billion [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14128.87, down 0.54%, with 635 gainers and 2028 losers, trading volume of 124.5 million shares worth 19.692 billion [2] - ChiNext Index: 3368.14, up 0.65%, with 345 gainers and 937 losers, trading volume of 294.7 million shares worth 8.748 billion [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities maintains a long-term positive outlook on the "technology + resource products" dual main line, noting that the market sentiment has cooled due to ETF sell-offs and international gold and silver price fluctuations, but expects stabilization before the Spring Festival [3] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the core drivers for the spring market have not fundamentally changed, suggesting a focus on high-performing and low-position sectors, including electric power equipment and semiconductor devices [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates continued sector rotation leading up to the Spring Festival, highlighting strong fundamental support for sectors like non-bank financials and automotive, while also noting the potential for structural opportunities within the market [5]

本周前四个交易日，A股市场震荡，各大指数也是如此。不过，就在投资者认为本周将继续震荡下 去之时，周五盘中却迎来了大幅下跌。 周五收盘后，商品市场遭受重创。贵金属市场出现史诗级暴跌，COMEX白银大跌超25%， NYMEX铂、NYMEX钯跌幅超15%，COMEX黄金跌幅超8%。其他金属品种方面，LME锡跌幅超8%， LME镍、LME铜跌幅均超4%。 那么，商品市场大跌对A股有何影响？下周又有哪些机会值得关注？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关 心的话题展开讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到我们周末聊市场的时间。贵金属品种的大跌，让大家周末都比较担忧。 今天首先请你来聊聊大市。 道达：先聊下指数的情况。 去年10月之后，达哥就提到，上证指数面临4184点的压力。今年1月6日，达哥提到，突破4184点没 有悬念。之后市场的走势，验证了达哥的观点。 突破4184点之后，商业航天、AI应用两大板块的投机过热，引发神秘资金出手控节奏、控情绪。 周五盘中，上证指数跌破了控节奏、控情绪期间的低点。我认为，后市上行节奏可能会放缓。 主要原因有几点： 一是市场已经习惯了神秘资金的控节奏、控情绪。若再出现板块的大幅投机或连续大涨，容易引发 ...

2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 她始终相信："时代造英雄，每个时代都有自己的英雄。"当前，正处于科技起舞的时代，人工智能 （AI）、先进制造、新型消费与医药等是中长期的核心方向。在此基础上，她形成了宏观定风格、中 观捕景气、微观挖龙头的三层投资方法论。 在投资标的选择上，李坤元严格遵循"四好"原则：好行业——优选处于上行周期、具备爆发潜力的赛 道，尤其关注市场空间大、渗透率临近拐点的领域；好阶段——聚焦景气度向上、业绩确定性增长且可 见度至少在一年以上的细分环节；好公司——不仅关注显性龙头，也挖掘细分领域的隐形冠军和潜在龙 头，挖掘在行业 ...

"调研的方式有很多种，高效匹配自己的节奏才是关键。"林开盛更青睐券商策略会上的集中交流、上市 公司一对一的对话，以及一些与产业息息相关的大型展会。"例如，去一次展会，我能一次性实现对全 产业链硬件、软件的感性认知，效率远高于单次出差。"林开盛说。 他的投资理念里，藏着一个朴素的 目标：根据对大趋势的挖掘和理解做投资。"我希望在和市场上其他投资者面对同样的公开信息时，能 凭借历史积累和经验沉淀，梳理出更深入的洞见。"他坦言，自己常在某些个股涨了30%至50%后才明 白"上涨逻辑"，但那些因为"信息差"而错过的标的并不可惜，因为在他的研究体系下，也可以通过对历 史规律的推演和股票市场的理解找到其他值得投资的方向。 而在控制回撤方面，他也有自己的心得： 一是通过配置低相关性的行业对冲风险；二是坚守"买在低位"的原则，降低个股波动率；三是严守止盈 纪律，在标的估值偏高时果断切换。 ◎记者 朱妍 从"长期持有"的价值信徒，到"灵活交易"的市场猎 手，八年半投资生涯，太平基金林开盛的投资框架经历了迭代。凭借对科技、化工等多轮产业行情的精 准把握，其管理的太平行业优选股票走出了一条独特的投资之路。 从"坐过山车"到"高低切 ...

格隆汇2月2日｜中信建投研报称，继续看多AI与商业航天。航天侧，SpaceX积极推进上市进程，拟吸 收xAI整合业务；同时，SpaceX向FCC提交百万颗AI卫星申请，目标打造太空算力卫星星座；苹果与 SpaceX拟联合推动手机直连卫星服务，商业航天下游应用领域有望拓展。AI侧，可灵3.0超前内测，图 像视频模型同步升级；全球世界模型赛道大厂云集，本周蚂蚁连续开源四款具身智能模型，谷歌Genie 3正式上线，世界模型迭代有望加速AGI进展；此外，互联网大厂纷纷通过红包争夺春节AI产品推广流 量，AI产品渗透率或将持续提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has unveiled a new blueprint for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the development of space tourism, space digital infrastructure, space resource development, and space traffic management, marking a significant shift towards space as a new infrastructure hotspot in China [1] Group 1: Security Perspective - Space is considered a "high frontier," with approximately 15,000 satellites in orbit globally, over half of which are owned by the United States. The increasing congestion and collision risks in low Earth orbit necessitate the establishment of a space traffic management system [2] - The risks of satellite collisions, particularly between the U.S. Starlink satellites and the Chinese space station, highlight the urgent need for monitoring, early warning, and debris removal technologies to ensure safe operations in space [2] Group 2: Economic Perspective - The global space economy is projected to reach approximately $600 billion in 2024, with forecasts suggesting it could grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035. This growth is driven by the potential for resource extraction from celestial bodies, making "space mining" a feasible reality [2] - The construction of gigawatt-level space digital infrastructure is essential for deploying computing power in space, which will accelerate the development of the space economy. Additionally, space tourism is expected to emerge as a new engine for consumer spending [2] Group 3: Current Capabilities - China has established a solid foundation for advancing space infrastructure, with significant technological advancements such as the successful return of lunar soil samples and breakthroughs in 3D metal printing in microgravity environments [3] - The country is also in the process of developing reusable rocket technology, which is expected to significantly reduce launch costs [3] - Favorable policies are emerging, including the establishment of a Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration and initiatives to promote the development and utilization of commercial satellite remote sensing data [3] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - There are numerous technical challenges to overcome, including the maturity of reusable rocket technology and the need for breakthroughs in key technologies for space resource utilization [4] - Legal frameworks are lacking, with existing international space laws not adequately addressing the current commercial space landscape, necessitating the acceleration of space law legislation and active participation in international rule-making [4] - The high capital risk associated with commercial space ventures, characterized by long cycles and high uncertainty, calls for a layered approach to investment, allowing for independent profitability of different modules within the space industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is planning to launch its initial public offering (IPO) around mid-June 2024, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion and aiming to raise up to $50 billion, which could make it one of the largest IPOs in history [1][4]. Group 1: Business Developments - SpaceX has solidified its leading position in the commercial space sector through the large-scale launch of reusable rockets, significantly reducing launch costs [3]. - The Starlink project is expanding globally, deploying a low Earth orbit satellite network, which is driving rapid growth in commercial revenue [3]. - Ongoing advancements in deep space exploration and manned spaceflight projects provide long-term growth potential and a compelling narrative for the company [3]. Group 2: IPO Timing and Symbolism - The choice of mid-June for the IPO is notable as it coincides with a rare planetary alignment and Elon Musk's birthday, enhancing the symbolic significance of the event [3]. - This timing is expected to attract global investor attention even before the official roadshow begins, leveraging Musk's ability to blend technology, personal branding, and public narrative [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Impact - The targeted valuation of $1.5 trillion exceeds historical ranges for traditional aerospace and most tech companies, reflecting not just current financials but also future potential in global communications and deep space exploration [4]. - The IPO is seen as a complex undertaking, requiring rapid completion of regulatory filings, financial disclosures, and global roadshows, all while managing investor expectations amid market volatility [4]. Group 4: Broader Industry Implications - A successful IPO would provide global investors with a systematic opportunity to participate in the growth of the space industry, potentially transforming the financing structure of the sector [5]. - The listing could also lead to a revaluation of related upstream and downstream companies in the capital markets, as commercial space, satellite internet, and AI/communication industries become increasingly intertwined [5]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Despite its technological leadership, SpaceX faces challenges such as high capital expenditures, long project cycles, and regulatory scrutiny post-IPO [6]. - The transition to a public company will impose higher demands for information disclosure, performance stability, and investor communication, contrasting with its previous operational flexibility as a private entity [6]. - The IPO is viewed as a structural turning point in SpaceX's development path, with future performance dependent on balancing commercialization capabilities and long-term strategy [6].