Group 1 - The stock of Shangwei New Materials has achieved a limit-up, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of gains, with a total increase of over 330% since its resumption of trading on July 9 [4][6] - As of the latest report, Shangwei New Materials is priced at 33.47 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 13.5 billion yuan [4][5] - The company has experienced significant trading volatility, with its stock price deviation exceeding 200% over 30 trading days, prompting a warning to investors [7][8] Group 2 - Lithium mining stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Jinyuan Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit-up, while others like Tianqi Lithium and Tianhua New Energy also saw gains [9][10] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged over 4% to 70,980 yuan per ton, driven by market sentiment following temporary production halts at Cangge Mining due to mining permit issues [11] - Long-term demand for lithium remains optimistic, with low-cost salt lake enterprises enhancing supply-side resilience against risks [11]

【导读】上纬新材开盘涨停，实现 "20cm" 8连板，累计涨幅达330% 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 7月18日早 盘，A股三大指数集体高开， 创业板指一度涨逾1%。 截至发稿，沪指涨0. 28 %，深成指涨0. 28 %，创业板指涨0. 43 %。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3526.67 | 10903.66 | | 1420.16 | | +9.84 +0.28% | +30.05 | +0.28% | -7.95 -0.56% | | 科创50 | | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1006.08 | | 2279.08 | 5486.93 | | +0.43 +0.04% | +9.76 | +0.43% | +11.46 +0.21% | 板块方面，锂矿、稀土、多元金融等板块涨幅居前，而汽车零部件、零售、摩托车等板块震荡调整。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货上涨，受藏格矿业旗下格尔木藏格钾肥有限公司因违规开发被责令停 产消息带动，碳酸锂期货午后大涨，主力最高涨至 69980，藏格锂业 2025 年度计 划实现碳酸锂产量 11000 吨，月产量不足 1000 吨，该产量对国内碳酸锂市场供应 整体影响有限，在国内反内卷浪潮下，该消息的信号意义大于实际意义，不过现 货市场继续受到 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index rose over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.62% [1] - Sectors such as AI agents, lithium mining, coal, and PCB led the market gains [1] - More than 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets experienced an increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium mining stocks continue to show strong performance, with Jin Yuan Co. hitting the daily limit up, indicating robust investor interest in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jin Yuan Co. reached the daily limit up, reflecting strong market sentiment [1] - Other companies in the lithium sector, including Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Fangyuan Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, also experienced price increases [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 4% in early trading, reaching 70,700 yuan per ton, signaling a bullish trend in lithium prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains weak, with high and continuously accumulating inventory. The market shows abnormal movements due to the information of suspended lithium resource exploitation by listed companies, but fundamental pressure still exists after the news fades. Short - term trading requires caution and risk control [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 36.57%, a - 1.5477% month - on - month decrease. The call positions in the option market dominate, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly expand. - The operation suggestion is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 120,421 hands, down 4,072 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 363,676 hands, up 23,058 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 11,203 hands, down 1 hand [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, down 1,490 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; power battery production is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000, down 2,000; the monthly sales are 1,329,000, up 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales are 6,937,000, up 1,993,000; the monthly export volume is 205,000, down 7,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,060,000, up 455,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, up 0.86 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.49%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 178,316, up 13,582; the total put position is 65,218, up 2,418; the put - call ratio of total positions is 36.57%, down 1.5477 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.28%, down 0.0033 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of key policy measures to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry. It aims to promote the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardize the competition order [2]. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,147.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 580.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [2]. - Zangge Mining announced at noon on July 17 that its wholly - owned subsidiary received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development and utilization activities on July 16 [2].

港股今天虽然微跌了0.08%，主要是大金融普遍调整拖累大盘，但看上去问题也不大，因为 A 股也在上 行。 黄仁勋的言论对市场影响力相当可以，其在链博会上预言，人工智能的下个浪潮是物理AI （Physic AI）—通过算法学习物理规律预测结果，替代程序员写代码，将重塑工业与机器人领域。机器人乘势 而起，优必选（09880）公布，旗下新一代工业人形机械人Walker S2 搭载全球首创人形机械人热插拔自 主换电系统，毋须人工干预或关机即可自主换电，需时仅约3分钟，令该产品具备24小时无间断工作的 能力，可避免因充电停机导致的任务中断。这个算有了一些进步，今天涨超7%。而新入品种想象力更 强，如德昌电机控股（00179）发布公告，与上海机电订立两份股权合资协议，成立两家股权式合资企 业。第一家合资公司主要作为人形机器人解决方案的销售渠道。第二家合资公司专注于人形机器人硬件 模块及系统集成的设计和制造。每家合资公司的注册资本均为7500万元人民币（约1050万美元），看来 进军机器人行业动静挺大，今天大涨超14%。其它品种地平线机器人-W(09660)涨近5%。不光是机器 人，黄仁勋基本上所有买了H20的行业都被夸了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels, and the supply - demand outlook is loose. However, due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have increased, limiting the downside space for lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies, and pay attention to the support level around 63,000 - 65,000 and the resistance level around 68,000 - 70,000 [3] - The lithium carbonate basis is negative and the contango is positive, both within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of domestic lithium carbonate over - capacity clearance and the continuation of new energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, and investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July. Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, with the total capacity reaching 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased, and the domestic lithium concentrate production (import) volume in July may decrease (increase) month - on - month [10][11][13] Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week. Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity may be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for producing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [27] - The import window is closed, and the import volume of domestic lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month. The daily theoretical delivery profit of domestic lithium carbonate is negative, causing the inventory of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to decrease compared to last week. The social inventory (of smelters, traders, and downstream) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week [30][34] Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production cost of domestic smelting (causticizing) lithium hydroxide is 58,700 (67,150) yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium hydroxide (by smelting and causticizing methods) in July may decrease month - on - month, the inventory (of smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month, and the export volume in July may decrease month - on - month [38][43][48] Demand Side - The production volume of domestic lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month. Hubei Ruipai New Energy's project and Tiancheng Lithium's project, as well as Longpan Technology's project, are expected to contribute to the increase [60] - The production (import) volume of domestic nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily full production cost of domestic MHP/high - grade nickel matte/yellow slag/nickel beans to produce nickel sulfate is 124,100/119,500/126,600/125,200 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is negative/positive/negative/negative. The monthly production cost of Indonesian MHP/high - grade nickel matte integrated production of nickel sulfate is 112,000/119,100 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is positive [63] - The production volume of domestic lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month. The suspension of cobalt exports in the DRC since February 22 and its extension have affected the supply, leading to a decrease in the processing fee of domestic cobalt intermediates and changes in the production of related cobalt products [67] - The production volume of domestic lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month. The production (export) volume of domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide (lithium manganate type) in July has increased (decreased, decreased) month - on - month [77] - The production volume of domestic ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month, the monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from externally sourced raw materials is 79,450 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The supply - demand outlook for domestic ternary precursors in July may be tight [81][83][87] - The production volume of domestic ternary materials in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary materials has decreased month - on - month, the monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The inventory of domestic ternary material factories has increased compared to last week [92][93][95] - The production (export) volume of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily production profit of producing solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate from externally sourced lithium fluoride is negative [103][105][107] - The production volume of domestic lithium batteries in July may increase month - on - month, while the export volume may decrease month - on - month. The production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month, and the production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [114][118][122] - The production (sales) volume of domestic new energy vehicles in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [124][126]

来源：钛媒体 （wind锂矿指数） 锂矿板块集体拉升，核心催化是午间藏格矿业（000408.SZ）发布的一纸公告，其全资子公司格尔木藏格钾肥有限公司（简称"藏格钾肥"）收到海西州自然 资源局、海西州盐湖管理局下发的《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》，收到《通知》后，公司全资子公司格尔木藏格锂业有限公司(以下简 称"藏格锂业")已按要求停产。 不过，市场普遍认为，就藏格矿业的锂盐产量而言，其停产对本就供大于求的行业供给而言影响有限。更需关注的是其被停产的背景，就在上个月，青海省 委、省政府刚刚通报了第三轮中央生态环境保护督察移交问题追责问责情况有关，这其中就涉及盐湖资源的无序扩张。 藏格矿业锂资源开发被叫停 根据藏格矿业公告，藏格钾肥于7月16日收到海西州自然资源局、海西州盐湖管理局下发的《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》。 《通知》要求严格依照国家法律法规，切实履行企业主体责任，立即停止违规开采行为并积极整改，完善锂资源开采的合法手续；待锂资源开采手续合法合 规后，向海西州盐湖管理局申请复产；经申请通过后方可复产。 收到《通知》后，公司全资子公司格尔木藏格锂业有限公司（简称"藏格锂业"）已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].