1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector debt is expected to decline, and the government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the overall economy [1][17]. - In the short term, the stock - bond ratio may fluctuate, but in the long run, it tends to favor bonds. The stock style tends to favor value stocks, and the bond configuration window is open, but the trading space is limited [16][22]. - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended investment portfolio includes the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [7][16][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In May 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The government debt growth rate is expected to rise to 15.3% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has been loosening recently, but it is unlikely to remain so [1][17][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in May was weaker than in April. The annual nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen. The stock market was bullish, and the bond market was stable. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks, but the equity style shifted to value stocks. The short - and long - term bond yields were relatively stable [6][21]. - In the long run, during the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style favors value stocks. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, building materials, banks, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors had the largest increases, while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail sectors had the largest declines [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of July 4, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and machinery equipment, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, and real estate. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, electronics, machinery equipment, and building materials, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - bank finance, computer, banks, national defense and military industry, and automobiles. - The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market slightly decreased compared to last week. Steel, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, and coal had the highest trading volume growth rates [30][31]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, banks, building materials, pharmaceutical biology, and media had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail had the largest declines. - As of July 4, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, beauty care, and consumer electronics [35][37]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.3 in June, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 1.92% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose from - 1.3% in May to 4.3% in June, and Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [39]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in May and continued to rise in June. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - home trading volume was at a historical low, and second - hand home trading volume declined seasonally [39]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of July (June 30 - July 4), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of July 4, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.55 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. - Based on these characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund quarterly reports, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [9][59].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Gufeng Communication Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, fully owned by Hubei Guga Communication Co., Ltd. [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of Hubei Gufeng Communication Co., Ltd. is Gao Yong [1] - The company is registered in Wuhan, Hubei Province, specifically at the China Optics Valley Technology Conference Center [1] - The business scope includes sales of mobile terminal devices, communication equipment, office equipment, daily necessities, household appliances, furniture, internet devices, optical communication equipment, electronic special equipment, integrated circuits, smart instruments, and various other technology and service offerings [1] Industry Summary - The company operates within the information transmission, software, and information technology services industry, specifically in telecommunications, broadcasting, television, and satellite transmission services [1] - The company is classified as a limited liability company with a natural person investment or holding [1] - The business registration is valid until July 4, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter [1]

Group 1 - The event organized by the China International Service Trade Fair Exhibition Union (referred to as "Exhibition Union") on July 3 showcased over 50 quality enterprises, including Huawei and Beijing Bank, emphasizing the role of the service trade fair in promoting global service trade cooperation [1] - The focus areas of the event included electronic communication, intelligent manufacturing, and energy environment, facilitating cross-industry dialogue between Chinese and German enterprises [1] - The event provided insights into the development plans and investment policies of the Beijing Sino-German Industrial Park, while the Service Trade Fair Center announced preparations for the 2025 service trade fair [1] Group 2 - The Exhibition Union aims to gather world-leading companies from sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and environmental protection to enhance the efficient conversion of business resources [2] - The initiative aims to break down resource barriers and precisely match supply and demand, helping enterprises overcome development bottlenecks and accumulate cooperative resources for the 2025 service trade fair [2] - The service trade fair, as the largest global service trade platform, continues to leverage its platform effects to promote deep integration of quality service resources domestically and internationally, contributing to global economic recovery [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in the perception of AI's impact on employment, with many CEOs predicting large-scale layoffs due to AI technology [1][2]. - Ford CEO Jim Farley stated that AI could replace half of the white-collar workforce in the U.S. [1]. - JPMorgan's Marianne Lake indicated that the company's operational staff could decrease by 10% in the coming years due to new AI tools [1]. Group 2 - Tech company executives are more aggressive in their predictions, with Amazon CEO Andy Jassy noting that the workforce may shrink due to unprecedented AI advancements [2]. - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that within one to five years, half of entry-level jobs could disappear, potentially raising the U.S. unemployment rate to 10% to 20% [2]. - Fiverr CEO Micha Kaufman warned that AI will impact various job roles, including programmers, designers, and sales personnel [2]. Group 3 - Not all tech executives share a pessimistic view; OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap believes the impact on entry-level jobs will not be as swift or comprehensive as predicted [3]. - IBM CEO Arvind Krishna acknowledged that while AI has replaced hundreds of HR jobs, the company has hired more programmers and sales personnel [3]. - AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches mentioned that the uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on work remains significant, as past technological revolutions have often led to the emergence of new jobs [3].

Group 1 - Global top bankers show increasing confidence that the worst market period is over, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs, boosting optimism for more active M&A activities in the second half of the year [1] - The World Bank's latest report indicates that global foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to decline, with a projected drop of 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024, marking two consecutive years of decline [4][10] - The digital economy is one of the few sectors experiencing growth, with a 14% increase in global FDI in this area for 2024, driven by greenfield investments, particularly in data centers, AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity [13] Group 2 - Despite a decline in overall FDI, North America saw a 23% increase, while Europe experienced a significant drop of 58% [5] - The global M&A activity is on the rise, with over 17,528 transactions signed in the first half of the year, although the total number of deals is lower than the previous year, the size of transactions has increased, particularly in Asia [14] - The WTO predicts that despite challenges, service trade is expected to maintain growth, with a projected volume of $4.25 trillion by March 2025, accounting for nearly 14% of global goods and services exports [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July [1][5]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Market Impact - The deadline for the resumption of tariffs on July 9 has led to increased uncertainty, with the Senate passing a significant tax and spending bill, causing a generally pessimistic outlook for the US dollar [2][7]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has dropped over 7%, while Asian currencies have collectively rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][5]. - The market is showing a clear risk-averse tendency, with defensive assets becoming a primary choice for some investors due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs [3][10]. Group 2: Currency Movements and Economic Indicators - As of July 2, the US dollar index remained around 96, while the offshore RMB appreciated to around 7.15 against the dollar, marking its highest level since November [6]. - Other Asian currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, and Thai baht, have also reached their highest points since October, with the Singapore dollar hitting a 10-year high [6]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market as a Safe Haven - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract more capital inflows due to its relatively low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance [3][12]. - Following the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, Hong Kong's Hibor rates have rapidly declined, with the one-month Hibor rate dropping to 0.52%, the lowest since data collection began in 2000 [11]. - The Hong Kong market is becoming a new "safe asset" stronghold, with significant international capital inflows anticipated as corporate governance reforms enhance shareholder returns [11][12]. Group 4: Valuation Comparisons - The Hong Kong stock market remains significantly undervalued compared to the US market, with the Hang Seng Index projected P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a projected dividend yield of 3.2% [12]. - High dividend sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and utilities are expected to yield over 5%, making Hong Kong an attractive option for capital reallocating away from the US dollar [12].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has introduced a comprehensive action plan to stabilize foreign investment, featuring 20 high-quality measures aimed at enhancing the investment environment and promoting foreign capital inflow [2][3] Group 1: Measures to Expand Openings - The plan aims to leverage the new round of service industry expansion pilot in Qingdao, focusing on breakthroughs in cultural sectors such as film production [2] - It supports foreign enterprises in participating in segmented production of biological products and encourages clinical trials for overseas-listed cell gene drugs in Shandong [2] - The plan includes a "three-channel" approval process for registered applications of overseas-produced drugs transitioning to production in Shandong [2] Group 2: Investment Promotion Strategies - Shandong will create a matrix of major events, including the Qingdao Summit for multinational company leaders and various trade weeks, to enhance international influence [3] - The province will target major investment sources such as Europe, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong, utilizing national platforms like "Invest in China" and the China International Import Expo for precise investment attraction [3] - Collaboration with central enterprises will be deepened to promote profit reinvestment, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, and innovative foreign investment methods in new energy and finance [3] Group 3: Enhancing Open Platform Efficiency - The province will implement a high-quality development action plan for development zones, focusing on precise investment attraction and monitoring of foreign capital operations [3] - A "Bonded+" new business model will be promoted in comprehensive bonded zones to strengthen the main battleground for utilizing foreign capital [3] - A regular scheduling mechanism for major foreign investment projects will be established, ensuring comprehensive tracking and support for projects with over $100 million in planned investment [3]

来源： 中央纪委国家监委网站 中国东方航空集团有限公司原党组书记、董事长刘绍勇接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调 查 海南省委常委、秘书长倪强接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调查 国家中医药管理局原局长于文明接受国家监委监察调查 7月2日， 中央纪委国家监委网站发布6月反腐月报：104人被查，42人被处分。 江西省政协原党组成员、副主席胡幼桃接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调查 104人接受审查调查： 广西壮族自治区政协原党组成员、副主席彭晓春接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调查 交通运输部党组成员，国家铁路局党组书记、局长费东斌接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察 调查 原中央防范和处理邪教问题领导小组办公室副主任高以忱接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察 调查 此外还有：海南省科学技术厅原党组书记、副厅长许云，内蒙古自治区乌兰察布市政府原党组成 员、副市长王国相，贵州省贵阳市委常委、市委宣传部部长黄成虹，云南省森林消防总队原党委 副书记、总队长齐兴彬，教育部语言文字应用研究所原副厅级干部彭龙，国家金融监督管理总局 机构恢复与处置司原一级巡视员刘炜，等等。 | (√ 百贝 > 宿賣閱宣 > 首看十部 > ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July, with a general bearish outlook on the US dollar due to increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies [2][4]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Dollar Outlook - The market is anticipating the results of the US tariff negotiations set for July 9, with a significant focus on the implications for the US dollar and non-US currencies [3][4]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has declined over 7%, while Asian currencies have rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][3]. - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit, further impacting the dollar's sustainability [3][4]. Group 2: Defensive Assets and Hong Kong Market - In light of the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, defensive assets have become a primary choice for investors, with the Hong Kong stock market positioned to attract more capital due to its low absolute valuations [2][6]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) has seen a significant decline, with one-month Hibor dropping to 0.52% and overnight Hibor nearing 0%, indicating strong market liquidity [7]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a new safe haven for global capital, with expectations of a multi-year depreciation cycle for the US dollar, leading to increased international investment in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Trends in Hong Kong - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [8]. - The influx of global and southbound capital is driving a revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong, with notable growth in the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETF [8].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]