Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates that Minmetals Resources is expected to experience strong production growth by 2025, with total copper production and zinc production increasing by 27% and 6% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 1: Production Forecast - The company anticipates a more moderate growth in production for 2026, with copper production expected to grow by 3% year-on-year and zinc production projected to decrease by 3% [1] - Despite the tempered growth forecast for 2026, the company is expected to see a 1.1 times increase in earnings per share driven by stronger metal prices [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in nickel prices has made the acquisition of Brazilian nickel assets more attractive for the company [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 has been raised by 10-11%, with the target price increased from HKD 10.25 to HKD 11.9, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

从高频数据来看，2026 年春节位于 2 月中旬，1 月是春节前的最 后一个完整生产月，为了保持供应平稳，1 月生产或小幅回升，外需 或存在提前发货，1 月出口亦有望保持韧性，关注中国与欧盟、一带 一路沿线国家合作加深。生意社 BPI 代表的广谱价格指数环比延续上 行，除了全球定价商品之外，亦包括国内定价的煤炭、螺纹、化工品 等，年后 3 月开工季的价格趋势值得期待。值得注意的是，12 月 PMI 建筑业景气度较为明显改善，但 1 月高频数据显示，建筑业实物工作 量并未显著启动，100 大中城市拿地意愿相对较弱，30 大中城市商品 房销售景气度较低，或掣肘投资，需要密切跟踪节后复工复产情况， 这或对投资止跌回稳产生显著影响。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-01-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外需增长斜率分化，关注出口和 科技共振方向》 - 2026.1.22 宏观研 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have historically surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 44%, marking a record high. This volatility is attributed to a persistent supply-demand gap in the silver market, indicating a shift from a financial asset to a critical strategic resource driven by industrial demand [1][3][19] - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit since 2021, with a projected supply-demand gap of nearly 300 million ounces by 2025, expected to widen further in 2026 [1][11] - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (solar), electric vehicle, and AI infrastructure sectors, is the primary driver of this demand surge, with industrial silver consumption now accounting for over 60% of total demand [1][15] Supply Dynamics - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining, making silver supply rigid and slow to respond to price changes. Silver production has declined for five consecutive years, with no immediate increase expected [1][11][12] - The average silver content in mined ore has decreased by 30% over the past two decades, leading to higher extraction costs and lower efficiency [12] Demand Trends - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant increase in silver consumption, with demand growing over 1.6 times in the past five years. Despite technological advancements reducing silver usage per solar panel, the overall market growth has led to increased total silver consumption [15][16] - Electric vehicles require significantly more silver than traditional vehicles, with an average of 30 to 40 grams per electric vehicle compared to 15 to 20 grams for conventional cars, indicating a structural shift in demand [16] Inventory Levels - Global visible silver inventories are at multi-year lows, covering only about 1.2 months of consumption, which is below the safe threshold of three months [2][17] - The current inventory depletion is characterized by a one-way flow of silver into industrial applications rather than being stored for future market return, leading to a critical shortage [18] Pricing Power Shift - The traditional pricing power of silver has been held by Western financial centers, but the rise of Eastern markets, particularly China, is changing this dynamic. China has classified silver as a strategic material and implemented strict export controls [19][21] - Shanghai's silver futures market, which mandates physical delivery, has shown stronger price rigidity compared to the paper silver market in the West, reflecting a fundamental clash between financial and physical silver demand [20][23] Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for the silver market's future include a "run on the bank" bull market due to trust issues in the paper silver system, technological breakthroughs in reducing silver usage, and sovereign control reshaping market dynamics through strategic alliances and resource management [30][34][35]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.09%, gaining 24 points to close at 26,773 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.31%. The morning trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 151.1 billion [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (01164) saw a rise of over 9% as the natural uranium trust SPUT plans to increase procurement, indicating sustained growth in secondary demand [1] - Jiexin International Resources (03858) increased by over 6%, with tungsten concentrate prices approaching 550,000, and the company holds world-class tungsten resources [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 7%, reaching a historical high as the company accelerates the production and value realization of the Mt Bundy gold mine project [1] - Nickel stocks led the gains, with reduced production quotas for Indonesian nickel mines, and institutions expect nickel prices to continue rising. Xinjiang Xin Mining (03833) rose by 6%, Zhongwei New Materials (02579) increased by 4.6%, and Likun Resources (02245) gained 5% [1] - Laopu Gold (06181) rose over 7%, with high demand for SKP activities, and high-end traditional Chinese gold continues to break new ground [1] - Ark Health (06086) surged over 41%, expecting to achieve a net profit of up to 10 million by 2025, officially reaching full profitability [1] - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) rose over 9%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5 times since the acquisition, and the company claims to have restored public shareholding [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) increased by over 14%, driven by AI, enhancing the prosperity of the optical fiber and cable industry [1] - New World Development (00016) rose by 4.8%, with institutions expecting new land reserves to enhance company profits, and Hong Kong property prices may enter an upward cycle [1] - Nanhua Futures (02691) surged over 14%, recently entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, with plans to expand overseas business [1] - Modern Dental Group (03600) rose over 16%, with Hillhouse Capital acquiring a portion of the shares, increasing its stake to 17.24% [1] Group 2 - Weichai Power (02338) rose over 4%, with Citigroup indicating that the company may allocate more resources to the energy supply sector in the future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Biou Group (9893.HK) surged nearly 24% during trading, reaching a new high of 1.35 HKD, with a market capitalization of 4.8 billion HKD, driven by rising prices of precious metals like gold and silver [1] Company Summary - Biou Group's core asset, Anhui Jinding Mine, is becoming a significant support for the company's performance due to its mature gold extraction technology and stable production capacity [1] - In the full year of 2025, Anhui Jinding produced approximately 850 kilograms of gold-bearing mud with a gold content of about 20%, translating to an estimated pure gold output of around 170 kilograms [1] - The copper-gold co-mining resources are also impressive, with 77.9 million tons of copper-gold ore mined in 2024, an average gold grade of 0.66 g/t, and the processing of copper-gold concentrate yielding 19,100 tons with a significantly improved average gold grade of 16.75 g/t, laying a solid foundation for the continuous release of gold production capacity [1] Industry Summary - Analysts suggest that with the continuous rise in prices of gold and copper, along with increasing attention on the sector, Biou Group, which possesses a unique business model and a clear growth path, is likely to undergo a value reassessment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Dividend Index, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Western Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [1] - The SOE Dividend ETF (159515) has shown a 0.78% increase, with a weekly cumulative rise of 1.41% as of January 23, 2026 [1] - The liquidity of the SOE Dividend ETF is noted, with an intraday turnover of 3.65% and a transaction volume of 1.87 million yuan, alongside a monthly average transaction volume of 2.98 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the copper supply and demand remain tight, with processing fees hitting a historical low of -50 USD/ton, indicating high procurement tension for copper concentrate [2] - The expected fixed asset investment by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% year-on-year increase, which will significantly boost copper demand for power system construction [2] - Guojin Securities reports that the cargo throughput at Tangshan Port is expected to reach 242 million tons in 2025, a 4.1% year-on-year increase, emphasizing the pivotal role of state-owned ports in the energy resource supply system [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the SOE Dividend Index as of December 31, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Shanxi Coal International, and others, collectively accounting for 15.63% of the index [3] - The SOE Dividend ETF closely tracks the SOE Dividend Index, selecting 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend rates, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2][3]

中国中铁（00390）盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.43%，现报4.24港元，成交额2.10亿港元。 公开资料显示，中国中铁目前在运营5座矿山，铜/钴/钼储量处于行业领先地位。2024年子公司中铁资 源归母净利润30亿元，占公司整体的11%。 国盛证券此前指，如将矿产资源申请为拟培育主业，后续有望收购新矿山加速发展。预计2025年资源板 块归母净利润33亿元。申万宏源认为，资源板块持续发力，增强盈利弹性与抗周期性。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中国中铁（00390）盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.43%，现报4.24港元，成交额2.10亿港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 公开资料显示，中国中铁目前在运营5座矿山，铜/钴/钼储量处于行业领先地位。2024年子公司中铁资 源归母净利润30亿元，占公司整体的11%。 国盛证券此前指，如将矿产资源申请为拟培育主业，后续有望收购新矿山加速发展。预计2025年资源板 块归母净利润33亿元。申万宏源认为，资源板块持续发力，增强盈利弹性与抗周期性。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 119 points or 0.45%, closing at 26,749 points, after reaching a high of 26,895 points during the day[1] - The National Index increased by 46 points or 0.5%, closing at 9,160 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 35 points or 0.6%, ending at 5,798 points[1] - Total market turnover for the day was 240.872 billion HKD[1] Currency and Economic Indicators - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate was adjusted up by 90 points to 6.9929 against the US dollar, marking a two-and-a-half-year high[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation with a steady interest rate of 1.4%[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 13 points or 0.3%, at 4,136 points, with a trading volume of 1.34 trillion CNY[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 112 points or 0.8%, closing at 14,439 points, with a turnover of 1.75 trillion CNY[2] Corporate Earnings and Projections - Guotai Junan International expects a net profit of 1.28 to 1.38 billion CNY for the last fiscal year, a significant increase of 265% to 293% compared to approximately 351 million CNY in 2024[4] - China Merchants Bank reported a slight increase in operating income to 337.532 billion CNY, up 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 150.181 billion CNY, up 1.21%[5] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the second phase of its Julong Copper Mine, increasing production capacity to 350,000 tons per day[4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market saw a further decrease in trading volume, with total turnover dropping to 82.799 billion [1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 484 million, with Shanghai and Shenzhen contributing 283 million and 201 million respectively [1] US Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.58%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.03% and 0.28% respectively [2] - Notable declines were seen in Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, both dropping over 3%, while Intel fell 17% due to a larger-than-expected Q4 loss and disappointing revenue guidance [2] - The overall market sentiment was affected by geopolitical tensions and cautious institutional outlooks on short-term performance [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a positive start for both Hong Kong and A-shares in 2026, with a cumulative net inflow of 43.5 billion HKD from southbound funds [3] - Key investment themes include "technological self-reliance" and AI applications, with leading companies in these sectors expected to benefit from long-term growth opportunities [3] - Recommendations for investment focus on sectors supported by policies for expanding domestic consumption, including sports apparel and non-essential services [3] - The report highlights the continued attractiveness of undervalued central state-owned enterprises with high dividends, as well as upstream non-ferrous metals benefiting from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3] Company Highlights - Tencent announced a cash distribution of 1 billion for the Spring Festival, launching new features in its app to enhance user engagement [9][12] - Baidu is also participating in the Spring Festival cash distribution, offering 500 million in cash rewards through its app [9][12] - The report notes significant performance in the copper mining sector, with companies like China Nonferrous Metal Mining expected to benefit from rising copper prices [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Group (601390) shares rose over 5%, currently up 5.17% at HKD 4.27, with a trading volume of HKD 175 million [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Railway Group operates five mines, holding leading positions in copper, cobalt, and molybdenum reserves [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company from its subsidiary, China Railway Resources, is projected to be RMB 3 billion in 2024, accounting for 11% of the company's overall profit [1] - The resource segment is expected to generate a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion in 2025, indicating growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities suggests that if mineral resources are developed as a core business, the company may pursue acquisitions of new mines to accelerate growth [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the resource segment's ongoing development will enhance profitability and provide resilience against market cycles [1]