Group 1: Event Overview - The event was an annual performance briefing held on April 28, 2025, from 15:00 to 16:00 [1] - The event took place on the "Panorama Roadshow" website, allowing remote text communication [1] Group 2: Participants - Participants included Vice Chairman and President Mr. Yang Huafeng, Director and CFO Ms. Yang Xiaohong, Independent Director Mr. Gao Yongfeng, and Board Secretary Mr. Wei Wanwei [1] Group 3: Disclosure Information - The event did not involve the disclosure of any significant information [1] - No presentation materials or documents were provided during the event [1]

观点：短期承压 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250427 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 2 尿素周报观点 供应：本周期部分企业检修：本周期部分企业检修：山东润银生物化工、阳煤丰喜肥业、陕西陕化煤化工、乌石化 、山西天泽煤化工。本周期恢复的企业：河南晋控天庆煤化工、山东联盟化工、山东润银生物化工。下周尿素日产 量将在 19.3万吨附近。 库存：截至2025年4月23日，国内尿素企业库存量 106.50 万吨，环比+15.88万吨，中国主要港口尿素库存统计 11.7 万吨，环比+0.5 万吨。 需求：农业市场当前南北差异明显，山河四省处于春耕用肥结束，夏季玉米肥暂未启动的空档期，而南方部分水稻 区域也听闻因天气干旱等原因，影响终端用肥节奏。工业方面，复合肥工厂原料库存充足之下采购积极性有限，其 他板厂等依旧维持不温不火的采购节奏。预计短期内市场需求面零星阶段性补货为主。 现货：本周日山东1750（05基差-7），河南1730（05基差-27） 策略观点：随着五一临近，尿素复合肥下游将适当增加补仓，目前铺货中游经销商5成左右，中游往下铺货进度不高 ，五一后终端基层预计会启动。农业刚需空档期，但贸易商或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Weak Investment Outlook - Crude Oil, L, PP, PVC, PTA/PR (PTA), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1] Neutral Investment Outlook - LPG, PP, PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1] Bullish Investment Outlook - PX, PTA/PR (PTA) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may accelerate the pace of production increase, putting pressure on oil prices. Long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak with range - bound fluctuations [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: Affected by tariffs, the cost of imports has increased, but the impact is decreasing. It follows the trend of oil prices and is in a volatile state [1][7]. - **L**: With continuous inventory accumulation upstream and increasing production, supply is abundant while demand is weakening. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [1][10]. - **PP**: The parking ratio is rising, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [1][13]. - **PVC**: The spring maintenance is insufficient, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks. It is in a low - level volatile state [1][16]. - **PX**: The devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall demand - side maintenance is high. In April, the fundamentals improved, and recently it has shown a strong - biased volatile trend following cost fluctuations [1][18]. - **PTA/PR (PTA)**: The high volume of device maintenance has alleviated the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it shows a strong trend, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The devices are under planned maintenance, and the arrival volume is high. The demand from the polyester industry is high but expected to weaken, and the cost support is limited. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state with a bearish rebound [1][24]. - **Glass**: The macro - hedging sentiment has cooled down, and real - estate data decline has narrowed. Supply is stable at a low level, and demand is seasonally recovering, but high intermediate inventories and weak restocking expectations suppress the rebound of the market [1][28]. - **Soda Ash**: There are more maintenance plans in May, and supply may contract again. Although the market sentiment has improved, the supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall trend is volatile [1][31]. - **Methanol**: Despite device maintenance, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the demand is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it is in a relatively loose state, and a bearish view is taken on rebounds [1][33]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure remains large, and the agricultural demand is in a gap period while the industrial demand is weakening. Although the fertilizer export growth rate is fast, the overall view is bearish [1]. - **Asphalt**: Both supply and demand are weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost of crude oil is under pressure, and the valuation is high, resulting in a weak trend [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.37%, Brent up 0.23%, and domestic SC up 0.69% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices have reached a pressure level, and OPEC+ members propose to accelerate oil production increase in June. On the supply side, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased, and Kazakhstan's oil production decreased in March. On the demand side, China's gasoline production in March decreased year - on - year. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, oil supply will be in surplus, and the price will fluctuate between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, the resistance to price increases is rising, and it will be in a weak range - bound state. Attention should be paid to the range of SC [485 - 505] [4]. LPG - **Market Review**: On April 25, the PG main contract closed at 4406 yuan/ton, down 0.61% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4820 yuan/ton, 4910 yuan/ton, and 4910 yuan/ton respectively, with Shandong down 10 yuan/ton and the other two remaining unchanged [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the spot price of LPG has decreased, and it follows the range - bound trend of upstream oil prices. As of April 25, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the profit of PDH devices decreased, and the profit of alkylation devices increased. The supply increased slightly, while the demand of downstream devices decreased. The refinery inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to tariff disturbances, the import cost has increased, and there is short - term cost support. Technically, it follows the trend of oil prices. Strategies include a positive spread operation for PG05 - 06 and selling call options. Attention should be paid to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [7]. L - **Market Review**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 decreased, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and import and production profits changed. The main contract's basis increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [9]. - **Basic Logic**: This year, new production capacities have been put into operation, and some devices have started production. The import windows of some products are closed, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. Upstream inventory is accumulating, production has increased for 5 consecutive periods, supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: A bearish view should be taken at high prices. Attention should be paid to the range of L [7080 - 7200] [10]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 decreased, and the main contract's trading volume increased slightly. Spot prices were mostly stable, and production and import profits changed. The parking ratio increased, and the basis of the main contract increased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: In the first quarter, a new PP device was put into operation, and attention should be paid to the launch progress of a new PDH device in May. Affected by tariffs, product exports are under pressure. The parking ratio is rising, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and a bearish view should be taken in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the range of PP [7050 - 7150] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 decreased slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the cost of production decreased slightly. The basis of the main contract increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [15]. - **Basic Logic**: In January, a new device was put into operation, and the supply is under pressure. The real - estate completion area decline has narrowed, and downstream demand is seasonally recovering. Exports from January to March increased significantly, and the offer price to India decreased in April. Spring maintenance is insufficient, factory inventories are increasing, social inventories are decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks, and warehouse receipts are continuously registered. It is in a low - level volatile state [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and a bullish view can be taken on pull - backs. Attention should be paid to the range of V [4970 - 5060] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64). The basis in East China was 370 yuan/ton (-64) [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads. The processing spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the gasoline cracking spread is rising. The weekly production and the Asian capacity utilization rate have decreased. The import volume in March increased. The demand from the PTA industry is expected to weaken due to more device maintenance. In April, the fundamentals improved, and recently it has shown a strong - biased volatile trend following cost fluctuations [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of PX [6180 - 6320] [19]. PTA/PR (PTA) - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30). The TA5 - 9 spread was 32 yuan/ton (+48), and the basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton (+32) [20][21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Some devices are restarting or planning to restart, while others are under maintenance. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. The production and sales rates of polyester products have rebounded, but the inventory is still high. The terminal weaving industry's inventory is also high, and orders are decreasing. PTA inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it shows a strong trend, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Attention should be paid to the range of TA [4370 - 4500] [1]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19). The EG5 - 9 spread was 12 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in East China was 24 yuan/ton (-13) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are under planned maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. The expected arrival volume is high, and the import volume in March exceeded expectations. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. The production and sales rates of polyester products have rebounded, but the inventory is still high. The terminal weaving industry's inventory is high, and orders are decreasing. Social inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. The cost support is weak [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of EG [4140 - 4220] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price increased, the futures market was in a low - level volatile state, the basis of the main contract decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The macro - hedging sentiment has cooled down, and real - estate data decline has narrowed. Supply is stable at a low level, and demand is seasonally recovering. However, the high inventory of upstream and intermediate enterprises suppresses the short - term rebound. Enterprises may reduce prices to avoid inventory accumulation before the May Day holiday. The total enterprise inventory increased this week, ending a 5 - week consecutive decrease. The futures discount to Hubei's spot price has increased [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of FG [1100 - 1140] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, the futures market was in a warm - biased volatile state, the basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged [30]. - **Basic Logic**: There are more maintenance plans in May, and supply may contract again. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate and weekly production have decreased slightly. The downstream demand has not changed much, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory is still high. The profits of the two main production methods have increased. The market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall trend is volatile [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of SA [1350 - 1380] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1). The basis in East China and the port increased, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Although domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads, the overall supply pressure is still large due to the high comprehensive capacity utilization rate and the expected arrival of imports. The demand from the MTO industry is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. The cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: A bearish view should be taken on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of MA [2250 - 2300] [34].

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-28 01 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 02 甲醇：关注港口供应 或偏强震荡 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：下游部分MTO装置开工恢复后，甲醇价格小幅反弹。4月25日甲醇09合约收盘价2288元/吨，较上周 上调22元/吨。现货市场太仓甲醇价格2405元/吨，较上周下调8元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端甲醇装置产能利用率85.06%，较上周降低2.31个百分点，周度产量190万吨。近期到港量预 计8.1万吨，无新增到港，关注甲醇到港量恢复情况。成本利润端动力煤市场交易活跃度不高，叠加市场供应充足， 场内暂无利好动力支撑，预计下周动力煤市场价格稳中偏弱运行。利润方面，煤制甲醇周度利润为1 ...

中泰期货尿素周报 2025年4月28日 ——现货成交重心下移 新交割库大批量启用 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | 产业链 | | 2025年4月17日-4月23日 | 2025年4月24日-4月30日 | 2025年5月1日-5月7日 | 2025年5月8日-5月14日 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 19.28 | 19.86 | 20.14 | 20.00 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家企业 | | | 吨 | | | | | 计划检修，4家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 农需持续 ...

①化工新材料：核心增长引擎 公司化工新材料产品包括 聚碳酸酯（PC）、尼龙 6、己内酰胺、多元醇（正丁醇、辛醇、新戊二醇等）、有机硅材料和氟材料（六氟丙烯、聚全氟乙 丙烯、聚四氟乙烯、二氟甲烷等） 。报告期内， 己内酰胺·尼龙 6 一期工程 开车成功满负荷运行， 40万吨有机硅项目 顺利打通全流程， 24万吨乙烯 下游一体化项目 、 15 万吨丙酸等项目 有序推进， 30万吨双氧水装置 恢复生产。 报告期内， 化工新材料板块营收203.66亿元，同比增长26.83%，占总营收68.43% ，毛利率16%（同比+1个百分点） ②基础化工：价格承压，营收下滑 【DT新材料】 获悉，4月26日， 鲁西化工 发布公告，2025年第一季度，公司实现营业收入为72.90亿元，同比上升7.96%；归母净利润为4.13亿元， 同比下降27.30%；扣非归母净利润为3.84亿元，同比下降33.81%。 | | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期增减(%) | | 营业收入(元) | 7,289,926,095.44 | 6,752,410,7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the chemical industry, particularly in the compound fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while recommending "Hold" for others [17]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in the compound fertilizer, metal chromium, and niche pesticide markets. The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued high-growth companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive performance of listed companies in Q1 2025, particularly in the compound fertilizer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Xin Yang Feng, Stanley, and Yun Tu Holdings for investment opportunities [3][4]. - The report notes that metal chromium prices have surged to 75,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7,500 CNY/ton, driven by rising demand from the stainless steel sector and new military spending in Europe [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with stable trading volumes for seasonal crop pesticides. Specific products like Acetochlor and Avermectin are seeing price increases, with recommendations for companies like Xian Da and Li Min [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions in the chemical sector indicate a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term [4][6]. - The chemical industry PPI data shows a gradual recovery from negative values, with March 2025 PPI at -2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [6][8]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Sector - The report highlights that the domestic urea price is currently at 1,800 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.6%. The compound fertilizer sector is experiencing a decrease in operating rates, leading to increased inventory levels [10]. - The pesticide market is witnessing a seasonal peak, with stable trading volumes and price adjustments in various pesticide products, including a price increase for Pyrazole [10][19]. Chemical Products Pricing and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed pricing data for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in prices for PTA, MEG, and PVC, with specific attention to the impact of raw material costs and market demand [10][11][12]. - The report notes that the market for fluorinated chemicals is facing supply constraints due to mining restrictions, while the demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments [12][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and Yun Tianhua in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [17][18]. - Companies in the tire and fluorochemical sectors are also highlighted for their potential benefits from recovering domestic demand and cost reductions [3][17].

2025年4月23日，青海省格尔木市政府组建的工作组，以环境整治的名义，在没有任何行政处罚手续或法院判决等合法手续的情况下，公然违法将美格公司 的围墙和辅助设施强制拆除。 当全国从上到下大搞优化营商环境时，当年招商引资的"香饽饽"——青海美格钾业公司，却正遭当地"杀鸡取卵"，没有手续便被政府违规强拆。眼看着整齐 的工厂瞬息间变成一片废墟，公司负责人张先生欲哭无泪：明明是请进来的客人，怎么突然就成了要被赶走的敌人？民营企业座谈会的春风，为何就不度玉 门关？ 美格公司是2017年左右被青海省格尔木市招商引资进入当地的，公司专注于水溶肥，钾肥和熔盐的研发与生产，产品均严格遵循国家标准，品质上乘，多年 发展下来，在业界都有很高的知名度，企业不仅按时上交利税，而且解决了近百人的就业问题。 "当初批复了60亩土地。因面积不够，为正常生产，2019年，公司又辗转购买了毗邻的土地。这里历史上曾是盐湖公司八十年代的知青宿舍，曾经的激情燃 烧的火热土地，无数知青在这里用汗水托起了青海盐湖的历史功绩。我们也算是握着知青们握过的接力棒，在格尔木这块土地上生产和建设。"谈起"由于历 史原因，这部分宿舍和厂房的土地没有完善的土地手续。但 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：现货成交持续弱势，短期弱势运行 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价266.01-268.01美元/吨，高端下调1美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨； 波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸395.01-400.01美元/吨，上调5美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR 价格375.01-390.01美元/吨，高端上调10美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。由于目前出口法检政策仍严格，国际国内价格 背离格局延续。 ➢ 国内现货：目前基层对尿素的采购积极性仍较弱。从周四至周日，现货成交持续清淡，短期现货预计仍偏弱运行。4月27日报价，天庆下跌至1750元 /吨、临沂下跌至1800元/吨、东平贸易回调至1760元/吨、心连心 ...

期货研究报告|尿素周报 2025-04-27 需求未明显提升，上游库存累积 策略摘要 前期部分装置陆续恢复，尿素产量持续提升，供应端高位运行，上游库存累积。受南方 部分地区干旱影响，下游农业需求推后，短期仍处于空档期，工业需求减弱，复合肥开 工率小幅走低，五一假期临近，下游刚需采购为主，目前处于尿素旺季，等待下游实际 需求来临。煤炭与天然气价格稳中偏弱运行，尿素成本端持稳。国内出口政策维持收紧， 港口库存小幅波动，建议关注尿素出口相关政策情况。 周度产业信息 ■ 市场分析 海外价格：截至 4 月 25 日，小颗粒中国 FOB 报 267 美元/吨（-1），波罗的海小颗粒 FOB 报 350 美元/吨（+4），印度小颗粒 CFR 报 392 美元/吨（0）；中国大颗粒 FOB 报 272 美元/吨（-1）。 生产利润：截至 4 月 25 日，煤制固定床理论利润-174 元/吨（-20），煤制新型水煤浆 工艺理论利润 284 元/吨（-30），气制工艺理论利润-151 元/吨（-60）。 供应端：截至 4 月 25 日，企业产能利用率 83.6%（-2.1%）。企业总库存量 106.5 万吨 （+15.9），港口 ...