Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously shut - down urea production units have resumed operation, leading to an increase in domestic urea output. With 3 companies planning to halt production and 5 shut - down companies possibly resuming production this week, the probability of output increase is high [2]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, preferring a just - in - time procurement strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid procurement pattern [2]. - Due to the impact of some unit overhauls and the proper advancement of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline last week. Considering some unit restarts, enterprise inventories may slightly increase this week [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1740 - 1800 in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1778 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 230,560 lots, up 11,964 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,527, up 1,171 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619, up 243 [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 355 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, up 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points; the daily output is 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, down 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, down 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 143 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, down 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 31, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 101.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97 million tons and a 4.65% decline. The decline rate has narrowed [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea port sample inventory was 17.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons and a 2.82% decline. Port changes were minor, and the pace of factory shipments to ports slowed down near the holiday [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea output was 1.3591 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,000 tons and a 1.93% increase; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, up 37,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. Suggestions for Attention - The operating rate of enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - Pay attention to enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Group 1: Ecological Protection and Governance - The water quality of the Yangtze River in the Chongqing section has been better than the incoming section for eight consecutive years, indicating successful ecological governance efforts [4][11] - Chongqing has established a "Nine Treatments" ecological governance system focusing on water, air, soil, waste, plastic, mountains, banks, cities, and villages to strengthen the ecological barrier of the upper Yangtze River [9][11] - The city has completed the remediation of 1,324 rural black and odorous water bodies and built 18 national ecological civilization demonstration zones [11] Group 2: Industrial Transformation and Green Development - The former site of a chemical plant in Fuling has been transformed into a park, while a new modern fertilizer factory has been established with an investment of approximately 3.5 billion yuan, utilizing advanced energy-saving and environmental protection technologies [6][8] - Chongqing is focusing on green industries, with initiatives like the establishment of a national-level green park and the signing of clean shipping industry projects [13] - The city has built 170 national-level green factories and 16 national-level green parks, promoting a shift towards low-carbon and beautiful economies [16] Group 3: Urban Development and Quality of Life - The city is enhancing its urban environment by transforming neglected areas into recreational spaces, such as the Barren Water Park, which has become a popular destination [20][22] - Efforts to improve the ecological environment in the Jinyun Mountain National Nature Reserve have led to the establishment of boutique homestays, attracting young visitors [19] - The city is integrating ecological governance with urban renewal, improving the quality of life for residents while preserving natural landscapes [22]

国内尿素市场在2025年11月终结下行态势，开启回暖通道，在需求稳步释放、供应端减量支撑、出口增 量提振的多重利好因素共振下，于2025年年末收官阶段持续升温，并于2026年年初迎来"开门红"。截至 1月4日，国内尿素主流成交价已突破1700元(吨价，下同)，较2025年10月市场触底价上涨9%。 河南睿源新能化工经营负责人崔华杰分析称，在企业持续去库存的背景下，2025年12月尿素行业供应阶 段性收紧。一方面，西南地区气头尿素企业及华中部分企业集中进入停产检修周期，带来明显产能减 量；另一方面，局部区域环保预警升级，部分尿素装置被迫降负运行，叠加个别装置因故障临时检修， 国内尿素行业日产量一度跌至19万吨左右，降幅达5%。由于供应端收紧进一步刺激下游企业补库需 求，尿素企业新单量持续累积，企业挺价心态愈发坚定。与此同时，2025年12月仍处于储备需求周期， 下游储备补仓节奏对行情上行形成有力支撑。此外，2025年11月下达的部分出口配额货源于12月集中集 港发运，国内尿素市场可流通货源量进一步缩减，为尿素行情升温再添助力。 出口增长提振内外市场联动 据河南石化协会相关负责人介绍，2025年11月，新一批尿素 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-06 节后收单氛围好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-05，尿素主力收盘1768元/吨（+19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1720 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -48元/吨（-9）；河南基差：-48元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（+1）；尿素生产利润155元/吨（+10），出口利润 819元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2026-01-05，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.92 万吨（-4.97），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 需求端：截至2026-01-05，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.00日（-0.35）。 尿素企业元旦期间成交一般，待发尚可，价格稳中有降，元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期货盘面 震荡偏强进一步带动现货采购情绪，现货价格小幅上涨，主流生产企业实行限收政策，待发增加。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, monetary policy, and specific companies in the metals and manufacturing sectors, including A-shares, copper, aluminum, and electric equipment manufacturers. Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The current phase of economic recovery in China is linked to the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts, which is expected to facilitate the return of cross-border capital and improve cash flow statements for Chinese companies [1][2][5] - The necessity of debt restructuring in China is emphasized, drawing parallels to Japan's economic stagnation in the 1990s due to a lack of decisive action in addressing debt issues [2] - The potential for a quantitative easing (QE) policy from the Federal Reserve in the coming year is seen as a critical factor that could allow for debt restructuring in China, leading to a more prosperous economic phase starting in 2026 [4][5] Capital Flows and Currency Dynamics - The depreciation of the RMB during the Fed's rate hikes has been a concern, but with the Fed halting rate increases, there is an expectation for the RMB to appreciate, which could enhance domestic asset values and attract capital back to China [1][5] - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with non-financial A-share companies reporting improved free cash flow over three consecutive quarters [5] Sector-Specific Insights - The metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum, is highlighted as having strong growth potential, with expectations for price increases due to supply constraints [9][10][16] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Huafeng Aluminum are recommended for their strong market positions and growth prospects, with Zijin expected to achieve significant revenue growth by 2026 [10][12][22] - The electric equipment sector, particularly companies like Dongfang Electric, is also noted for its growth potential driven by increased global power generation investments [23][24] Investment Recommendations - A focus on cyclical recovery in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption trends is advised, with specific recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining, Huafeng Aluminum, and Dongfang Electric [5][6][23] - The importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the context of macroeconomic changes and sector dynamics is emphasized, with a recommendation to remain cautious about potential volatility in the market [5][22] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include the impact of global economic conditions on domestic markets, the possibility of asset price corrections, and the need for careful management of capital flows to avoid currency depreciation [3][4][5][22] - The importance of understanding the supply-demand dynamics in the metals market, particularly for nickel and cobalt, is highlighted as critical for future investment decisions [18][21] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records indicate a strong belief in the cyclical nature of the economy, with expectations for a significant recovery phase starting in 2026, which could lead to increased volatility in the A-share market [5][6] - The discussions also touch on the importance of new product developments and market expansions for companies like Huafeng Aluminum, which is diversifying its customer base beyond traditional automotive sectors [15][16]

铵肥事业部将继续秉持精益生产与可持续发展的理念，充分发挥现有产能优势，深化精细化管理，全力 保障装置安、稳、长、满、优运行。 供稿：凯龙楚兴 全员聚力，实干争先。截至2025年12月31日，凯龙楚兴铵肥事业部生产硝酸铵及复合肥等各类产品共计 501084.30吨，产量连续三年超过50万吨，圆满完成公司下达的年度生产任务。 回顾过去三年，面对复杂多变的市场环境，铵肥事业部始终坚持以安全生产为基石，以市场需求为导 向，科学统筹生产计划，持续优化产品结构。在保障硝铵溶液、复合肥生产线稳定运行的同时，不断通 过技术改造和流程优化，充分挖掘装置潜力，推动整体运行效率和产能利用率稳步提升。尤为值得关注 的是，2025年通过对多孔硝铵装置风系统、收料系统、包膜系统的技术攻关，显著提高了多孔硝铵产品 产能和质量。截止当前统计时点，多孔硝铵累计产量达8169.60吨，已成为公司产能增长的新引擎。这 不仅提升了公司产品市场竞争力，也为公司开拓国际市场提供了坚实力量。 全员聚力，实干争先。截至2025年12月31日，凯龙楚兴铵肥事业部生产硝酸铵及复合肥等各类产品共计 501084.30吨，产量连续三年超过50万吨，圆满完成公司下达 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (January 5, 2026) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Area: Commodities (Urea) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic urea market shows a complex situation. Although the daily output is high and the supply is relatively abundant, affected by factors such as Indian tenders, regional demand, and the progress of off - season storage, the price trend is expected to be strong in the short - term and the supply - demand fundamentals will remain relatively loose in the medium - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose strongly, closing at 1768 (+25/+1.43%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices of urea in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend. For example, in Henan, it was reported at 1640 - 1660 yuan/ton; in Shandong, small - particle ex - factory price was 1660 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On January 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.86 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 2.52 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate was 82.70%, a 2.52% increase compared to 78.05% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Regional Market Conditions**: In Shandong, the ex - factory price was weak and stable, with a cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory price followed the downward trend. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the ex - factory price was strong, and the market atmosphere was positive [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The daily output of domestic urea has recovered to around 19.8 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. India has tendered again, but the impact on the domestic market is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The off - season storage progress has reached over 70%, and the future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the ex - factory price is expected to be strong in most regions. In the medium - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of urea will remain relatively loose, and the acceptance of price increases by downstream customers is low [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off [6][9]. - **Options**: Hold off [9]. Related Charts - Multiple charts show historical data on urea production, operating rate, inventory, and related product data from 2022 to 2025, including daily production, coal - based and gas - based production, enterprise inventory, port inventory, etc. [10][14]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1749 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1710 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2737 手至 15.68 万手，空头持仓减少 1080 手至 | | | | | 18.85 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.08 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 1.82 万吨；今日开工率 80.52%，较去年同期 78.81%回升 1.71%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 101.92 万吨，环比-4.97 万吨，减少 4.65%。 | | | | | 尿素港口样本库存量 17.2 万吨，环比-0.56 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China reported an increase in the fertilizer utilization rate for major crops, indicating improved agricultural efficiency and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Fertilizer Utilization Rate - By 2025, the fertilizer utilization rate for wheat, corn, and rice is projected to reach 43.3%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from 2020 [2]. - In 2024, the total application of agricultural fertilizers is expected to be 49.88 million tons, a reduction of 1.034 million tons (17.2%) compared to 2015, while grain production increased by 6.9% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Increased Utilization - The promotion of soil testing and formula fertilization has been crucial, with over 2.3 billion acres of land covered, achieving over 95% coverage for major crops [4]. - The "Three New" integrated model, which includes new fertilization technologies, products, and equipment, has significantly contributed to the increase in fertilizer utilization rates [4]. - The use of organic fertilizers and microbial fertilizers as alternatives to chemical fertilizers has enhanced nutrient efficiency, with over 650 million acres of organic fertilizer application expected by 2025 [5]. Group 3: Specialized Services and Support - The development of specialized scientific fertilization service organizations, with over 17,000 existing nationwide, has facilitated the implementation of advanced fertilization techniques [6]. - The average reduction in fertilizer use in trial areas is around 10%, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrated nutrient management practices [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to strengthen the management of fertilizer and water resources, focusing on precision management and policy guidance to further enhance fertilizer utilization [6].