尿素日报 | 2026-02-10 印标提振市场情绪 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-09，尿素主力收盘1788元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-2）；河南基差：2元/吨（+18）；江苏基差：12元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润225元/吨（+10），出口利润1081 元/吨（+148）。 供应端：截至2026-02-09，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.85 万吨（-2.64），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-09，复合肥产能利用率41.79%（+0.45%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.82日（+2.23）。 部分厂家收单好转，农业需求跟进，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应 量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入后期，部分淡 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 12 元至 1788 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 30 元至 1790 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 8530 手至 26.1 万手，空头持仓增加 10680 手至 27.6 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 91.85 万吨，较上周减少 2.63 万吨，环比减 少 2.79%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、印 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Sifang has shown significant trading activity with a notable increase in financing and margin trading, indicating a high level of investor interest [1][2]. - As of February 9, Hong Sifang's financing balance reached 176 million yuan, accounting for 8.84% of its market capitalization, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.481 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, and a net profit of 45.8423 million yuan, down 59.02% year-on-year [2]. Group 2 - Hong Sifang's main business revenue composition includes 92.93% from compound fertilizers, 5.07% from nitrogen fertilizers, 1.22% from potassium sulfate, and 0.79% from other products [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 5.10% to 25,300, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.38% to 2,117 shares [2]. - The top circulating shareholder is the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, holding 711,200 shares, a decrease of 13,400 shares from the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - As of February 9, 2026, Yara International (000893) closed at 54.29 yuan, marking a 1.31% increase, with a trading volume of 9.78 million shares and a total transaction value of 530 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yara International reported a main revenue of 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.363 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163.01% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.362 billion yuan, up 164.56% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a main revenue of 134.5 million yuan, a 71.37% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 508 million yuan, showing a 104.69% year-on-year increase [2]. - The single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items was 506 million yuan, up 105.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 32.61%, with investment income of 44.8025 million yuan and financial expenses of 65.2958 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 58.91% [2]. Market Sentiment - Over the last 90 days, seven institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with five giving a "buy" rating and two an "accumulate" rating [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. Urea's检修装置 has复产 plans, leading to an increase in daily output and supply. Agricultural demand is gradually limited, and industrial demand shows a mixed trend with a narrow fluctuation in compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in melamine operating rate. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market are gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises have a decent backlog of orders. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea's futures price fluctuated weakly, while the spot price moved slightly upward. On February 6, the closing price of the Urea 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous week, with a maximum of 1798 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1766 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous week. [2][5] - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On February 6, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 32 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-46) - (-27) yuan/ton. [2][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea strengthened. On February 6, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 32 - 38 yuan/ton. [2][9] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 87.98%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 64.6%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 20.99 tons. Some overhauled devices in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong resumed production or increased production, and the daily output reached around 210,000 tons, with sufficient supply of goods. [2][12] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of anthracite coal in the market was slightly stronger on a stable basis. As of February 5, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 9.66%. The mainstream price of the urea spot market moved upward, and the urea production profit remained stable. [2][16] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 6.5 days, and the weekly production - sales ratio of urea enterprises was 99.6%. Agricultural demand was gradually limited. In terms of industrial demand, the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of melamine decreased. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market were gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises had a decent backlog of orders. [2][17][18] 3.2.4 Industrial Demand - The production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 749,300 tons, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Winter storage shipments continued to slow down, some fertilizer enterprises reduced production, and the growth rate of spot inventory slowed down. As the Spring Festival approaches next week, some fertilizer enterprises will stop production for holidays as planned, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers may continue to decline. [2][22] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.83%, a decrease of 3.65 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 32,080 tons. This week, new devices in Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Phase II, Shandong Heli Tai, and Xinjiang Yuxiang Huyang were shut down for maintenance. The D - area of Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui and Anhui Jinhe had resumed production after short - term shutdowns. [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened. [26] 3.2.5 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 241,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, equivalent to 217,200 tons, an increase of 1,599 receipts or 31,980 tons compared with the same period last year. [2][29] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and overhaul of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，建议多单离场，节前空仓过节。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | | 资金席位回测一览 * 远端交易预 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 3 元至 1776 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1760 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 7675 手至 25.3 万手，空头持仓增加 7793 手至 26.6 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 91.85 万吨，较上周减少 2.63 万吨，环比减 少 2.79%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3% ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to ensure the supply and stable pricing of fertilizers for the spring plowing of 2026 and throughout the year [1] - Provincial development and reform commissions are required to cooperate with industrial and information authorities to stabilize fertilizer production and ensure the supply of raw materials [1] - The notice emphasizes the importance of timely coordination to address challenges faced by storage enterprises in organizing, transporting, and financing fertilizer reserves [1] Group 2 - The notice also outlines the need for improved management of fertilizer imports and exports, as well as market regulation to maintain a good market order [2] - It calls for the promotion of scientific fertilization practices to enhance fertilizer usage efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China has issued a notice to ensure the supply and stable pricing of fertilizers for the spring farming of 2026 and throughout the year [1] Group 1: Fertilizer Production and Supply - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of securing raw material supplies for fertilizer production and stabilizing production levels [1] - Provincial development and reform commissions are tasked with coordinating the supply of raw materials and ensuring that enterprises meet minimum production plans, especially during critical periods like winter storage and spring farming [1] - Environmental authorities are instructed to allow A and B grade fertilizer producers to self-manage emissions during severe pollution weather [1] Group 2: Fertilizer Distribution and Cost Reduction - The notice calls for smooth transportation of fertilizers and raw materials via waterways and highways, in collaboration with transportation authorities [1] - It encourages key agricultural input distribution companies to increase direct sales to fertilizer end-users [1] Group 3: Fertilizer Reserve Management - The NDRC highlights the need for effective management of fertilizer reserves, including regulatory checks and support for storage enterprises facing challenges [1] - There is a focus on enhancing the coordination of fertilizer reserves at different levels to improve scale, variety, and timing [1] Group 4: Market Regulation and Efficiency - The notice outlines requirements for improving import services and ensuring the stability of fertilizer imports [1] - It stresses the importance of market regulation to maintain order and promote scientific fertilization practices to enhance fertilizer efficiency [1]

Group 1 - China has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, surpassing 100 million tons in 2023 and projected to reach 108 million tons in 2024, accounting for 20% of its total oil imports [1] - The "Power of Siberia" pipeline delivered over 11.7 billion cubic meters of gas to China last winter, nearly doubling the previous year's volume, with a projected annual supply increase to 44 billion cubic meters [3] - The trade between China and Russia has shifted to local currencies, with over 95% of transactions now conducted in RMB and Rubles, and the Russian Finance Minister reporting a 99.1% settlement in local currencies [3] Group 2 - China's exports to Russia have surged, particularly in automobiles, machine tools, and chips, filling the gap left by Western companies [3] - The economic relationship between China and Russia is strengthening, with Russia shifting its energy exports towards China, now relying on it for over half of its energy exports [5] - The collaboration is characterized as normal business transactions, with both countries benefiting from favorable pricing and stable supply chains, without any coercion involved [5]