半导体量检测设备空间怎么看？重点推荐：精测、飞测 20260118 摘要 国内半导体量检测设备市场规模接近 400 亿人民币，国产化率低于 20%，美国科磊（KLA）占据 70-80%的市场份额，国产替代空间巨大。 中科飞测在暗场缺陷检测设备，精测科技在明场缺陷检测设备上取得突 破，加速国产替代，前者侧重存储客户，后者侧重逻辑客户。 缺陷检测占市场 60%，尺寸测量占 30%，纳米级缺陷检测（明场和暗 场）是技术壁垒最高、需求最大的领域，不同客户按需选择。 科磊（KLA）作为全球龙头，市占率近 50%，净利润率高达 35%- 36%，远超应用材料和泛林集团，主要得益于技术壁垒和高维护需求。 预计国内头部企业未来有望达到 30%左右的利润水平，对应 400 亿市 场规模可产生约 120 亿人民币利润，该赛道总市值可达 4,800 亿人民币 左右。 逻辑芯片和代工需求贡献半导体设备行业 60%的收入，台积电等公司在 先进制程上的需求增速较高，推动科磊等设备供应商发展。 精测电子市场预期差较大，基本面正处于大幅拐点位置，性价比更高， 存储和先进逻辑客户订单表明其后续订单将持续兑现并加速释放。 Q&A 量检测设备市场 ...

1月19日，强一股份盘中上涨2.04%，截至09:47，报392.85元/股，成交3.22亿元，换手率3.44%，总市值 508.97亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1278.25万元，特大单买入9157.55万元，占比28.46%，卖出1.21亿元， 占比37.66%；大单买入9202.61万元，占比28.60%，卖出7522.96万元，占比23.38%。 强一股份今年以来股价涨52.98%，近5个交易日涨10.35%。 今年以来强一股份已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为1月9日，当日龙虎榜净买入8979.98万 元；买入总计6.82亿元 ，占总成交额比21.17%；卖出总计5.92亿元 ，占总成交额比18.38%。 资料显示，强一半导体(苏州)股份有限公司位于江苏省苏州工业园区东长路88号S3幢，成立日期2015年 8月28日，上市日期2025年12月30日，公司主营业务涉及专注于服务半导体设计与制造的高新技术企业, 聚焦晶圆测试核心硬件探针卡的研发、设计、生产与销售。主营业务收入构成为：探针卡销售 95.87%，其中:2D/2.5DMEMS探针卡84.71%，其中:悬臂探针卡8.25%，晶圆测 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 因AI相关需求加持，加上受惠台积电投资2纳米(nm)，日本半导体制造装置协会(SEAJ)上修2025年 度日本制半导体(芯片)设备销售额预估、将续创历史新高纪录，且预估2026年度销售额将史上首度冲 破5兆日圆大关、改写历史新高。 SEAJ公布预估报告指出，因台湾晶圆代工厂(台积电)的2纳米(GAA)投资全面展开、加上以HBM为中 心的DRAM投资稳健，因此2025年度(2025年4月-2026年3月)日本制芯片设备销售额(指日系企业于 日本国内及海外的设备销售额)自前次(2025年7月)预估的4兆8,634亿日圆上修至4兆9,111亿日圆、将 较2024年度增加3.0%，年销售额将连续第2年创下历史新高纪录。 SEAJ表示，2026年度(2026年4月-2027年3月)期间，因DRAM投资持续扩大、加上预期AI伺服器用 先进逻辑芯片投资增长，因此将2026年度日本芯片设备销售额自前次预估的5兆3,498亿日圆上修至5 兆5,004亿日圆、将年增12.0%，年销售额将史上首度冲破5兆日圆大关、续创历史新高。 关于2027年度(2027年4月-2028年3月)情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a cooling market sentiment, as indicated by the recent adjustments in financing margin ratios and the focus on performance indicators as the annual report forecast period approaches [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has shown a high-level oscillation pattern, with previous leading sectors experiencing increased volatility [1][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for timely counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent significant market fluctuations [1][8]. - The market is expected to shift focus from narrative-driven trends to performance-based evaluations as annual report forecasts are released [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Citic Securities suggests constructing portfolios based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation," focusing on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy [9]. - Investors are advised to increase allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and consider high-growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment to enhance returns [9]. - Guotai Junan highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with high growth or recovery potential, particularly in technology and industries benefiting from price increases due to policy changes [15][16]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Multiple securities firms, including GF Securities and Industrial Securities, predict that the market will see opportunities from late January to mid-March, coinciding with the annual report forecast disclosures [10][11]. - The spring market rally is expected to continue, with structural adjustments rather than systemic risks being the primary concern [11][12]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of "spring excitement," focusing on companies with solid fundamentals and performance exceeding expectations [12][13]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI applications, is expected to shift from broad-based gains to a more focused performance on companies with strong fundamentals [16]. - The rise in commodity prices is seen as a significant trend, driven by global supply chain changes and resource revaluation, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and new energy materials being highlighted [16][15].

长江商报消息 中微公司、比亚迪加持，半导体核心零部件供应商成都超纯应用材料股份有限公司（以 下简称"超纯股份"）闯关创业板IPO。 日前，超纯股份的IPO审核状态变更为"已问询"。按照计划，公司拟募资11.25亿元，主要用于产能扩 张、加大研发投入、补充流动资金等。 专注于刻蚀设备关键零部件近20年，伴随着国内半导体产业的快速发展，超纯股份的盈利能力呈现高速 增长态势。但长江商报记者同时注意到，公司存在上下游客户、供应商"双集中"的风险。2025年上半 年，公司前五大客户销售收入占比高达87.89%，且向前五大供应商采购金额占比也达到52.03%。 其中，超纯股份的第二大客户"客户B"经多方证据指向半导体设备龙头中微公司。经过多轮增资稀释之 后，中微公司目前仍直接持有超纯股份4.26%股份，比亚迪则持股4.58%。 值得一提的是，IPO前，2023年10月超纯股份曾进行利润分配，派现5000万元。此次分红中，公司控股 股东、实控人柴杰及其一致行动人、其兄弟柴林获得分红3731.5万元，占公司2022年归母净利润的比例 约为65%。 业绩快速增长应收账款占总资产两成 资料显示，超纯股份最早成立于2005年，20 ...

今日提示 ·国新办将于1月19日上午10时举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年国民经济运行情况。 ·第56届世界经济论坛年会（冬季达沃斯）将于1月19日至23日在瑞士达沃斯举行。 ·中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日联合发布通知称，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷 款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 ·《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）》公开征求意见，鼓励利用衍生品市场从事套期保值等风险管理 活动，支持开发满足中长期资金风险管理需求的衍生品，依法限制过度投机行为。 ·中央广播电视总台2026年春节联欢晚会17日完成首次彩排，机器人将再度登上春晚舞台。 ·自1月19日起，投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。 ·延江股份1月19日复牌，拟购买甬强科技98.54%股权。 ·世茂能源1月19日复牌，终止筹划控制权变更。 ·锋龙股份1月19日复牌，核查工作已完成，公司股票自2025年12月25日至2026年1月13日连续12个交易 日涨停。 ·振石股份1月19日发行，代码780112，发行价11.18元，市盈率32.59倍，申购上限5.45万股，主营清洁能 源功能材料。 上证精选 ·1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

本周A股整体呈现高位震荡行情，市场波动率有所放大。 在业内机构看来，推动市场走强的有利因素并未发生改变，随着前期波动率逐步修复，市场有望平稳进 入春季行情的第二阶段；此外，进入年报业绩预告披露期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升，具备扎实基 本面支撑、业绩表现超预期的优质公司，有望跑出超额收益。 在具体配置上，"反内卷+科技"仍有望继续占优，AI应用、化工、有色金属、电力设备等品种配置价值 获得青睐，黄金、优化的高股息资产可继续作为中长期底仓。 影响后市投资大事件 央行、金融监管总局：商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30% 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日发布关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例政策的 通知，明确商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。中国人民银行各 省级分行、国家金融监督管理总局各省级派出机构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原则， 在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 中信证券：围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"构建组合 进入年报业绩预告披露期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。配置上，建议围绕"资源+传统制 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the humanoid robotics industry, suggesting that the overall returns will exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [47]. Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing continuous catalysis, with significant investment opportunities emerging. The CES 2026 highlighted a shift towards practical applications of humanoid robots, with over half of the exhibitors being Chinese companies [12][10]. - Notable developments include Xiaopeng Motors announcing the mass production of humanoid robots in 2026, and Tesla's Elon Musk expressing confidence in humanoid robot advancements, with plans for a production line capable of manufacturing 1 million units by the end of 2026 [12][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing technological iterations among manufacturers and the accelerated capitalization of leading companies, indicating a potential rapid industrialization of humanoid robots [12][10]. Industry Summary Industry Opinions and Investment Suggestions - The humanoid robotics sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on the practical deployment of technology showcased at CES 2026 [12][10]. Industry Key News - The report notes significant sales growth in various machinery sectors, including a 14% increase in 3C devices and a 38.1% increase in automotive cranes, while engineering machinery saw a decline [13][39]. Key Company Announcements - New Jian Transmission has initiated listing guidance, focusing on products applicable in humanoid robotics and other sectors [12][10]. - The establishment of a joint research center between Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Jieka Robotics aims to enhance core technologies in general-purpose intelligent robotics [21]. - The report mentions a significant financing round of 1 billion yuan for a company in the embodied intelligence sector, indicating strong investor interest [22].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes long-term opportunities with the strategy "蓄力新高" suggesting that the Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke 4000, while the 2026 strategy "奔马资产, 策马逐牛" focuses on embracing "奔马资产" (globally competitive leaders) leading to a revaluation of value [3][10] - The mid-term analysis indicates a potential for market fluctuations towards the end of the year, with a strong market rally observed in the first week of January, confirming previous predictions [3][10] Industry and Sector Analysis - Leading sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals remain core themes, with internal shifts observed, such as a transition from rare earths and precious metals to industrial metals and lithium-cobalt-nickel within non-ferrous metals, and from consumer electronics to storage and semiconductor equipment in electronics [4][14] - The report identifies three key investment directions: 1. Core growth assets, particularly in the Hang Seng Internet sector, benefiting from platform economy support and potential AI catalysts, alongside improvements in US-China relations and passive foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation [5][13] 2. Globally competitive assets (奔马 50), which are expected to benefit from global economic recovery, strong policy support, and institutional capital inflow, with a high cost-performance ratio due to trends in AI, high-end manufacturing, and resource supply-side adjustments [5][13] 3. Emerging growth sectors, particularly those related to the "Musk chain," focusing on AI applications and underground transportation, with a bottom-up investment approach in areas like computing power and humanoid robots [5][13] Market Dynamics - The report notes that despite recent volatility, the fundamentals of a long-term bull market remain intact, with market sentiment high and financing balances nearing a ten-year high, indicating a healthy market environment [7][11] - Historical patterns suggest that after a major rally, the market may enter a consolidation phase, but the underlying growth logic remains strong, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [12][14]