Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient. Although there are some production device overhauls, the production has recovered and increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually be reflected, and the spot offer may decline after the price cut of butadiene rubber and butadiene, which may drive some downstream stocking. The inventory of producers and traders may slightly decrease. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase as the production scheduling of overhaul enterprises gradually resumes this week, but the increase may be limited due to the production control plan of some enterprises. The short - term forecast range of the br2511 contract is between 11,600 - 12,300 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,655 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the position of the main contract is 22,243 lots, down 1,100 lots; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber is 145 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Brent crude oil is 67.49 US dollars/barrel, up 1.1 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.67 US dollars/barrel, up 1.04 US dollars. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.25 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 68.45%, up 0.54 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,950 tons, up 6,950 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.1%, up 0.53 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 76.16%, up 0.31 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 462 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the social inventory is 3.19 million tons, up 0.02 million tons; the producer inventory is 24,650 tons, down 450 tons; the trader inventory is 7,260 tons, up 640 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.85 days, down 0.29 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15%. As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying have 3 - 4 days of overhaul plans, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [2][12][22] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Demand Side - Main contract closing price on September 3: 11,885, weekly change: +175 [3][13][23] - Main contract open interest on September 3: 28,944, weekly change: -10,968 [3][13][23] - Main contract trading volume on September 3: 105,069, weekly change: +10,070 [3][13][23] - Warehouse receipt quantity on September 3: 12,540, weekly change: +70 [3][13][23] - Virtual - real ratio on September 3: 11.54, weekly change: -4 [3][13][23] Basis & Monthly Spread - Butadiene - styrene basis on September 3: 515, weekly change: -175 [3][13][23] - 8 - 9 monthly spread on September 3: 250, weekly change: -25 [3][13][23] - 9 - 10 monthly spread on September 3: 0, weekly change: +10 [3][13][23] Spot Market - Shandong market price on September 3: 11,900, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] - Chuanhua market price on September 3: 11,800, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] - Qilu ex - factory price on September 3: 12,100, weekly change: 0 [3][13][23] - CFR Northeast Asia on September 3: 1,500, weekly change: +25 [3][13][23] - CFR Southeast Asia on September 3: 1,700, weekly change: -25 [3][13][23] Processing & Import - Export - Spot processing profit on September 3: -92, weekly change: -2 [3][13][23] - Futures processing profit on September 3: -107, weekly change: +73 [3][13][23] - Import profit on September 3: -86,225, weekly change: +381 [3][13][23] - Export profit on September 3: -294, weekly change: +63 [3][13][23] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - Shandong market price on September 3: 9,600, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] - Jiangsu market price on September 3: 9,400, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] - Yangzi ex - factory price on September 3: 9,500, weekly change: 0 [3][13][23] - CFR China on September 3: 1,095, weekly change: 0 [3][13][23] Processing & Import - Export - Carbon four extraction profit: Data unavailable on September 3 [3][13][23] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on September 3: 236, weekly change: +30 [3][13][23] - Import profit on September 3: 416, weekly change: +125 [3][13][23] - Export profit on September 3: -1,010, weekly change: +71 [3][13][23] Downstream Profit - Butadiene - styrene production profit on September 3: 1,125, weekly change: +50 [3][13][23] - ABS production profit data unavailable on September 3 [3][13][23] - SBS (791 - H) production profit on September 3: Data stable, weekly change: -125 [3][13][23] Group 4: Spread Data Inter - Variety Spread - RU - BR spread on September 3: -13,059, weekly change: +11,093 [3][13][23] - NR - BR spread on September 3: -16,229, weekly change: +11,068 [3][13][23] - Thai mixed - butadiene spread on September 3: 3,000, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] - 3L - butadiene - styrene spread on September 3: 2,700, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23] Intra - Variety Spread - Standard - non - standard butadiene price difference on September 3: 250, weekly change: 0 [3][13][23] - Butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread on September 3: 1,000, weekly change: +100 [3][13][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2][12][22] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on September 2 was 11,820, a decrease of 75 from the previous day and 25 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The open interest of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887 from the previous day and 11,837 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The trading volume of the main contract was 103,125, a decrease of 9,988 from the previous day and 9,322 from the previous period [3][13][23] Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 80 on September 2, an increase of 75 from the previous day and a decrease of 25 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 235 on September 2, an increase of 110 from the previous day and 60 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 80 on September 2, an increase of 100 from the previous day [3][13][23] Spot Market - The Shandong market price remained at 11,900, with no change from the previous day and a decrease of 50 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,800, with no change from the previous day and a decrease of 50 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100 [3][13][23] Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 67 on September 2, a decrease of 26 from the previous day and 76 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The import profit was - 86,106, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 294 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The export profit was - 306, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 187 from the previous period [3][13][23] BD (Butadiene) Price - The Shandong market price on September 2 was 9,575, an increase of 25 [3][13][23] - The Jiangsu market price on September 2 was 9,375, a decrease of 125 [3][13][23] - The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,500 [3][13][23] Processing and Import - Export - The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was not available for calculation [3][13][23] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 211, a decrease of 195 [3][13][23] - The import profit was 402, a decrease of 94 [3][13][23] - The export profit was - 997, a decrease of 22 [3][13][23] Downstream Products - The production profit of butadiene styrene rubber was 1,138, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 75 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 1,090, with no change from the previous day and a decrease of 110 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The production profit of ABS was not available for calculation [3][13][23] Price Spreads Inter - Variety Spreads - The spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene rubber was 2,980 on September 2, an increase of 60 from the previous day and 130 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The spread between RU - BR was - 15,413 on September 2, an increase of 1,897 from the previous day and 11,822 from the previous period [3][13][23] - The spread between NR - BR was - 18,573 on September 2, an increase of 1,917 from the previous day and 11,757 from the previous period [3][13][23] Intra - Variety Spreads - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene rubber remained at 250 [3][13][23] - The spread between butadiene styrene 1502 and 1712 remained at 1,050, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 100 from the previous period [3][13][23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 2, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Indicators**: On September 1, the closing price of the main contract was 11,895, down 5 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week; the trading volume was 113,113, up 25,436 from the previous day but down 42,291 from the previous week; the open interest was 33,170, down 2,323 from the previous day and 13,535 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 12,440, up 180 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the virtual-to-real ratio was 13.33, down 1 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The butadiene-styrene basis was 5 (with a weekly increase of 215), the 8 - 9 monthly spread was 125 (up 20 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -20 (down 35 from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,900/11,800 (down 50/up 0 from the previous day and up 0/50 from the previous week), the Transfar market price and Qilu ex - factory price were both 12,100 (unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week), CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500 (up 50 from the previous week), and CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700 (down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was -41 (down 76 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week), the on - disk processing profit was -46 (down 31 from the previous day and 166 from the previous week), the import profit was -86,106 (down 51 from the previous day and 1,141 from the previous week), and the export profit was -306 (up 222 from the previous day and 308 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Indicators**: The Shandong market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Jiangsu market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500 (unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week), and CFR China was 1,095 (unchanged) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data was unavailable, the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186 (down 50 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week), the import profit was 377 (down 50 from the previous day and 57 from the previous week), and the export profit was -975 (up 44 from the previous day and 230 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,075 (unchanged from the previous day and up 138 from the previous week), the ABS production profit data was unavailable, and the SBS 791 - H production profit was 1,090 (down 125 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. Spread Indicators - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spread between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,920 (up 70 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week), the spread between 3L and butadiene - styrene rubber was 2,650 (unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between butadiene - styrene 1502 and 1712 was 1,050 (unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week) [3][13][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 28, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9590 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2900 yuan/ton and a basis of -30 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up 3% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, up 5.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, down 1.1% month-on-month but up 7.8% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, up 1% month-on-month and up 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 28, the operating rate for the butadiene industry is 67.9%, down 0.4% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 75.8%, up 9.7% month-on-month; the operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 71%, down 1.3% month-on-month; the operating rate for full-steel tire manufacturers is 65%, down 0.1% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 27, butadiene port inventory is 24,000 tons, down 3,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 25,100 tons, up 1,900 tons, an increase of 8.2% month-on-month; trader inventory is 6,620 tons, down 790 tons, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month [3] - During the period from August 21 to August 27, domestic butadiene sample total inventory decreased by approximately 5.69% week-on-week, with sample enterprise inventory slightly down 0.16% week-on-week; port inventory decreased by 12.09% week-on-week due to limited ship arrivals and normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory [4] Market Analysis - On August 28, it was reported that the supply of butadiene from Singapore and India is expected to decline, boosting BR prices, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2510 closing at 11,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the previous day's settlement price; there are no significant expectations for an increase in domestic butadiene production in the near term, while the main downstream industries maintain decent operating rates [5] - The supply side indicates that after multiple styrene-butadiene rubber facilities resume operations, production will continue to grow, but overall inventory reduction will be limited; on the demand side, semi-steel tire inventory remains high, increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it difficult to raise operating rates for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tire operating rates remain stable overall [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the provided text. It mainly offers data on synthetic rubber market indicators such as prices, profits, and spreads. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on August 27 was 11,710, down 135 from the previous day and 5 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The open interest of the main contract was 39,912, a daily decrease of 3,208 but a weekly increase of 4,221 [3][14][25]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,999, down 17,448 from the previous day and 74,065 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on August 27 was 11,800, down 150 from the previous day but up 200 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,700, with the same daily and weekly changes as the Shandong market [3][14][25]. - The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100 on August 27, unchanged from the previous day but up 200 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene basis on August 27 was 90, down 15 from the previous day but up 205 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was 275, up 100 from the previous day [3][14][25]. Processing and Import/Export - The spot processing profit on August 27 was - 90, down 99 from the previous day and 14 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The import profit was - 86,509, down 109 from the previous day and 1,110 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The export profit was - 366, up 126 from the previous day but down 27 week - on - week [3][14][25]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on August 27 was 9,500, down 50 from the previous day but up 210 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, down 200 from the previous day but up 50 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,500 on August 27, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Processing and Import/Export - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 27 was 206, down 200 from the previous day but up 50 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The import profit was 299, down 196 from the previous day and 44 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The export profit was - 909, up 278 from the previous day and 113 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Downstream Profit - The butadiene styrene production profit on August 27 was 1,075, up 13 from the previous day and 138 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,090, up 15 from the previous day but down 55 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Spreads Inter - Variety Spreads - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread on August 27 was 2,900, up 50 from the previous day but down 30 week - on - week [3][14][25]. - The 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [3][14][25]. Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread on August 27 was 900, down 50 from the previous day and 50 week - on - week [3][14][25].