Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate within the valuation range in the short - term. The fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure but are marginally improving, and it is predicted to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are also under pressure, but it is supported by the valuation, and it will operate within the valuation range [2][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (20251121 - 1127), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.31 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. Next week, the output is expected to be around 11.25 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [5]. - The butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion to meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene. The expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [12][14]. - Many butadiene production enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out equipment maintenance, which affects the output [18]. Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a high year - on - year level. In the short - term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene equipment decreases in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [7]. - The ABS industry has a large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. The SBS industry's operating rate has slightly increased, maintaining a rigid demand for butadiene with little change [7]. Inventory - In the current cycle (20251120 - 1126), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.24%. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.04% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory increased by 18.84% month - on - month. The port inventory may remain under pressure in the short - term [5]. Synthetic Rubber (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) Supply - In the current cycle, the Maoming Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit was shut down for maintenance, the Zhejiang Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit restarted production, and the Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene rubber unit was put into production but has not yet produced. The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene units are expected to gradually resume production [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to increase next week, but the overall increase is limited. The operating rates of maintenance enterprises are gradually returning to normal levels, which will drive the recovery of the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall sales pressure remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand also remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. The raw material buyers actively followed up this cycle, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber was slightly strengthened. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. The high - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and the private price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, and some of the transactions weakened. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9800 - 10500 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower valuation to the NR - BR spread support for the lower valuation. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton on the futures market [4].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10400 | 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 58829 | -4201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2950 | 70 | | 现货市场 | | 10400 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10350 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 140 | 东(日,元/吨) -90 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格( ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand of BR are not strongly supported, and the cost side is difficult to maintain an upward trend. It is expected that the upside of BR will face pressure. Specific strategies include maintaining a short-selling mindset for BR2601 near 10,800 and implementing a strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on BR2601 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory BR Weekly - **Market Overview**: The price of butadiene, the cost side, rebounded after falling to the lowest level of the year. Some buyers entered the market, and the short - term upward trend attracted some downstream "bottom - fishing" behavior. However, the decline of natural rubber and commodities in the second half of the week dragged down BR, causing it to rise first and then fall [5]. - **Cost Side - Supply**: Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its maintenance, while Zhenhua New Materials' butadiene rubber plant restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [5]. - **Cost Side - Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [6]. - **Cost Side - Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory changed slightly. As of November 19, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [7]. - **Cost Side - Valuation**: The production profit of butadiene rubber rebounded. The average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton. The average price difference between butadiene rubber and Thai mixed rubber was - 4,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 176 yuan/ton [9]. Butadiene - **Production**: In 2025, from January to October, the domestic butadiene production increased by 15.5% year - on - year. In the current week, the production was 115,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons (+1.76%) from the previous period. The increase was mainly due to the new production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [10][14]. - **Price**: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward. After the price fell to the lowest level of the year, some buyers entered the market. The cost pressure of butadiene decreased slightly, and the profit of the C4 extraction process increased. In the Asian market, the price fell and then stabilized [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene imports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 80.6% year - on - year [22]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of domestic butadiene increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. As of November 20, the port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous period [28]. Butadiene Rubber - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production increased by 27% year - on - year. Zhenhua New Materials' plant restarted, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [31][34]. - **Price**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose first and then fell, with a price range of 10,000 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The production profit rebounded, and the average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton [38]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber imports increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports increased by 33.5% year - on - year [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period (+2.24%). As of November 19, the in - factory inventory was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [47]. Tires - **Production**: In October 2025, the production of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16%. The production of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.48% and a year - on - year increase of 17.84%. The tire exports in October decreased by 8.2% year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased this week. As of November 20, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days and a year - on - year increase of 7.69 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.57 days [49]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [51]. Automobiles - **EU Market**: In September 2025, the sales of EU passenger cars increased by 10% year - on - year to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, and the share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [56]. - **Chinese Market - Overall**: In October 2025, the production and sales of Chinese automobiles increased by more than 10% year - on - year. The production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October, the production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4% [59]. - **Chinese Market - Segments**: In October, the production and sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle sales penetration rate reached 51.6% in October and 46.7% from January to October [63]. - **Chinese Market - Heavy Trucks**: In October 2025, the sales of heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 60%. The consecutive growth trend extended to "seven consecutive increases" [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - favorable expectations support the rubber price to steadily rise tentatively. Some cis - butadiene rubber plants are planned for scheduled rotation maintenance, but the overall operating rate is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber was in a stalemate, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened, driving the supply and market prices to rise slightly, but downstream resistance to price increases emerged [6]. - The report also presents price data of various synthetic rubber products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 115,600 tons (a 1.75% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while Guangxi Petrochemical stably increased production, leading to an overall increase in total production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhenhua New Materials restarted, the cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the cis - butadiene plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo regular maintenance next week. The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber production last week was 29,200 tons (a 3.88% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.64% [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The semi - steel tire market remained stable during the period. The all - season tire market was still dull, with channels mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the inventory clearance rhythm did not change significantly. The supply of winter tires was abundant, and terminal sales advanced steadily [3]. - All - steel tires: This week, the all - steel tire market was relatively stable compared to last week, with weak trading. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand weakened, channel inventory was relatively sufficient, and merchants' willingness to restock was limited. However, as inventory is digested and monthly purchase tasks are due, agents are still expected to make purchases in the next cycle [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, a 37.24% increase from the previous week. Most refinery plants were operating stably, but some enterprises' inventory increased due to downstream load and external sales trading rhythm. Port inventory increased due to relatively concentrated vessel arrivals and slow spot price increases [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 31,510 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. Raw material buyers were actively following up, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, production enterprise inventory increased, and trading enterprise inventory changed slightly [3]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 335 yuan/ton, in East China was - 135 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 85 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4855 yuan/ton (a 1.78% increase); the NR - BR spread was 1900 yuan/ton (a 4.40% increase); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.21 [3]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Butadiene: The production gross profit from butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1514 yuan/ton, and that from C4 extraction was 194.88 yuan/ton [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 784 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.91% [3]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US Department of Labor reported that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Department of Labor also revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August [3]. - US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21 [3]. - There are expectations that China and the US will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs on November 27 [3]. - Delegations from Ukraine and the US will hold consultations in Switzerland on the parameters of a possible future peace agreement with Russia [3]. - China has taken counter - measures due to remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, leading to a deterioration in Sino - Japanese relations [3]. 3.7 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical situations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's synthetic rubber industry, projecting significant increases in production and market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's synthetic rubber production reached 774,000 tons in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 6.616 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 11.2% [1] - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - **Butadiene**: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market in China is under pressure due to increased production capacity of butadiene and synthetic rubber, high finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, and low operating rates for both full steel and semi-steel tires [1][2]. Production Capacity - China's butadiene production capacity has reached 7.577 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 14.16% [2] - Five new butadiene production units have been added this year, contributing a net increase of 940,000 tons per year after accounting for capacity exits [2] - By 2025, China's synthetic rubber capacity is expected to exceed 8 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total [2][3] Market Demand - In October, the production of rubber tires in China decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with total output at 97.951 million units [4] - The automotive industry shows strong performance, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.2% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, supporting demand for original equipment tires [4] - However, the export market has seen a slowdown, with tire exports growing by only 4% from January to October, down from 10.25% in 2024 [4] Inventory and Utilization Rates - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 44.82 days, while for full steel tire manufacturers it is 39.01 days, indicating a need for inventory reduction [4] - The capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tires is 72.99%, showing a slight increase, while full steel tires have a utilization rate of 64.29%, reflecting a decrease [5] Price Trends - As of November 19, butadiene prices in Shandong are reported at 7,100 yuan per ton, with a significant drop in production profits for various production processes [6] - The price gap between butadiene and synthetic rubber remains large, with synthetic rubber prices reported at 10,450 yuan per ton, indicating a need for price correction [6][8] - Overall, the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue experiencing weak fluctuations due to increased domestic supply and ongoing demand pressures [8]

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1045 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10800区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10705 | 200 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 71378 | -643 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10550 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10550 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR90 ...