Workflow
合成橡胶
icon
Search documents
合成橡胶:供应未如期增量 丁二烯坚挺 且天胶走强 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-08 02:06
Price and Market Overview - As of August 7, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9375 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1090 USD/ton, with no change [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11550 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, up by 3% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, up by 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 56.97 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month but up by 7.8% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.75 million units, up by 1% month-on-month and up by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - As of August 7, the operating rate of the butadiene industry is 69.8%, down by 0.3% [2] - The operating rate of high-styrene butadiene rubber is 68.2%, down by 5.9% [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers is 69.7%, down by 0.4% [2] - The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers is 60.1%, up by 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, the port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, up by 4,300 tons [3] - The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, up by 350 tons, a 1.5% increase [3] - The inventory of traders is 7,290 tons, down by 230 tons, a 3.1% decrease [3] Market Insights - As of August 7, the supply of butadiene has not increased as expected, leading to a stable price, while natural rubber prices have strengthened, boosting BR prices [5] - The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,535 CNY/ton, with a 0.22% increase compared to the previous settlement price [5] - Despite some butadiene production facilities restarting, there are also ongoing maintenance activities, leading to a slight decrease in domestic production [5] - The expected increase in butadiene imports in August may not meet expectations due to shipping schedules concentrated in the latter half of the month [5] - The supply side shows a mix of restarts and short-term shutdowns, with limited inventory reduction expected for styrene-butadiene rubber [5] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains high, with increasing pressure on both domestic and export sales, making it challenging to raise operating rates [5] - Overall, while cost support remains, the supply-demand balance for BR is expected to be loose, leading to short-term fluctuations [5]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 09:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the gradual restart of maintenance devices, and the negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, with both device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The 509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,535 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 26,456 (yuan/ton, the unit seems inconsistent here, might be a mistake in the original text), down 1,631; the 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions are between 11,550 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 66.89 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.35 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 581.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, down 0.81 dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,400 tons, up 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌互现,焦煤跌幅居前-20250806
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].
合成橡胶早报-20250804
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:49
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Release Date: August 4, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Overview - Closing Price of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 11,455, a daily decrease of 40 and a monthly decrease of 960 compared to July 2nd [3] - Open Interest of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 33,939, a daily decrease of 881 and a monthly decrease of 15,372 compared to July 2nd [3] - Trading Volume of Main Contract: On August 1st, it was 73,266, a daily decrease of 19,757 and a monthly decrease of 87,525 compared to July 2nd [3] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On August 1st, it was 10,340, with no daily change and an increase of 500 compared to July 2nd [3] - Virtual-to-Physical Ratio: On August 1st, it was 16.41, with no daily change and a decrease of 9 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 3: Basis and Spread - Butadiene Rubber Basis: On August 1st, the butadiene rubber basis was 145, a daily decrease of 60 and an increase of 360 compared to July 2nd [3] - Butadiene Rubber Basis (Two Oil Companies): On August 1st, it was 345, a daily increase of 40 and an increase of 360 compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis: On August 1st, it was 495, a daily decrease of 60 and an increase of 460 compared to July 2nd [3] - August - September Spread: On August 1st, it was -100, a daily decrease of 100 and an increase of 82 compared to July 2nd [3] - September - October Spread: On August 1st, it was 10, a daily decrease of 5 and a decrease of 5 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 4: Spot Price - Shandong Market Price: On August 1st, it was 11,600, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 600 compared to July 2nd [3] - Chuanhua Market Price: On August 1st, it was 11,450, with no daily change and a decrease of 650 compared to July 2nd [3] - Qilu Factory Price: On August 1st, it was 11,800, with no daily change and a decrease of 600 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 5: Processing and Import/Export Profits - Spot Processing Profit: On August 1st, it was 16, a daily decrease of 151 and a decrease of 232 compared to July 2nd [3] - Futures Processing Profit: On August 1st, it was -129, a daily decrease of 91 and a decrease of 425 compared to July 2nd [3] - Import Profit: On August 1st, it was -84,921, a daily decrease of 96 and an increase of 3,829 compared to July 2nd [3] - Export Profit: On August 1st, it was -125, a daily increase of 87 and an increase of 746 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 6: Butadiene (BD) Information - Market Prices: Shandong market price on August 1st was 9,200, a daily increase of 50 and a decrease of 525 compared to July 2nd; Jiangsu market price was 9,200, with no daily change and a decrease of 550 compared to July 2nd; Yangzi factory price was 9,200, a daily decrease of 200 and a decrease of 500 compared to July 2nd [3] - CFR China: On August 1st, it was 1,080, a daily decrease of 10 and a decrease of 20 compared to July 2nd [3] - Processing Profits: Carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was not available on August 1st; butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 176, with no daily change and a decrease of 690 compared to July 2nd [3] - Import and Export Profits: Import profit on August 1st was 263, a daily increase of 82 and a decrease of 427 compared to July 2nd; export profit was -954, with no daily change and an increase of 582 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 7: Downstream Profits - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: On August 1st, it was -129, a daily decrease of 91 and a decrease of 425 compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: On August 1st, it was 900, a daily increase of 150 and no change compared to July 2nd [3] - ABS Production Profit: Data was not available on August 1st [3] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H): On August 1st, it was 1,100, a daily increase of 170 and an increase of 380 compared to July 2nd [3] Group 8: Inter - and Intra - Variety Spreads - RU - BR Spread: On August 1st, it was -19,629, a daily increase of 631 and an increase of 14,097 compared to July 2nd [3] - NR - BR Spread: On August 1st, it was -21,764, a daily increase of 781 and an increase of 14,227 compared to July 2nd [3] - Thai Mixed - Butadiene Rubber Spread: On August 1st, it was 2,450, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 450 compared to July 2nd [3] - 3L - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Spread: On August 1st, it was 2,500, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 250 compared to July 2nd [3] - Butadiene Rubber Standard - Non - Standard Spread: On August 1st, it was 250, a daily decrease of 50 and no change compared to July 2nd [3] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 - 1712 Spread: On August 1st, it was 1,150, with no daily change and no change compared to July 2nd [3]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 08:47
Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated August 4, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has weakened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs have actively entered the market, but the downstream terminal procurement has been negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. There are short - term shutdown and maintenance expectations for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical this week, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,395 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 31,806 lots, down 2,133 lots. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, up 200 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 205 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 69.67 dollars/barrel, down 2.86 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil is 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 820 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.88 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]
合成橡胶市场周报-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 09:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].
永安期货合成橡胶早报-20250801
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 07:09
Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][11] - Release Date: August 1, 2025 [2][11] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][11] Core Data BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: On July 31, the closing price of the main contract was 11,495, down 280 from the previous day and 790 from the previous week; the open interest was 34,820, down 4,870 from the previous day and 14,008 from the previous week; the trading volume was 93,023, down 7,369 from the previous day and 55,619 from the previous week [3][12] - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, down 100 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,450, down 350 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,800, down 300 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [3][12] - **Price Difference and Spread**: The cash - and - carry spread of cis - butadiene was 205, up 180 from the previous day and 390 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 205, up 205 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week [3][12] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 167, up 2 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week; the import profit was - 84,506, up 2,570 from the previous day and 2,534 from the previous week [3][12] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, down 100 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [3][12] - **Profit**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 176, down 100 from the previous day and 590 from the previous week; the import profit was 210, down 79 from the previous day and 397 from the previous week [3][12] Downstream Products Profit - The profit of butadiene styrene rubber production was 725, down 200 from the previous day; the profit of ABS production was 261, up 29 from the previous day and down 57 from the previous week; the profit of SBS (791 - H) production was 930, unchanged from the previous day and up 410 from the previous week [3][12] Variety - to - Variety Spread - The spread between RU - BR was - 20,260, up 4,485 from the previous day and 13,323 from the previous week; the spread between NR - BR was - 22,545, up 4,570 from the previous day and 13,163 from the previous week; the spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene was 2,550, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [3][12]
永安期货合成橡胶早报-20250731
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract on July 30 was 11,775, a daily decrease of 60 and an interval decrease of 100 compared to previous periods. The open interest of the main contract was 39,690, with a daily decrease of 1,446 and an interval decrease of 8,901. The trading volume was 100,392, a daily decrease of 4,222 and an interval decrease of 24,690. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 10,190 compared to the previous day, with an interval increase of 350 [3][12]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 425 on July 30, with a daily increase of 60 and no interval change. The 8 - 9 month spread was -50, a daily decrease of 20 and an interval decrease of 85. The 9 - 10 month spread was 25, a daily decrease of 5 and an interval increase of 5 [3][12]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,800, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 100. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,800, with no daily change and an interval increase of 50. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with no daily change and an interval increase of 100. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,475, with no daily change and an interval increase of 25. CFR Southeast Asia was 1,750, with no daily change and an interval increase of 20 [3][12]. - **Profitability**: The spot processing profit was 113 (the specific change is unclear from the incomplete data), with a daily increase of 52. The on - screen processing profit was 140, a daily increase of 42 and an interval increase of 359. The import profit was -86,839, a daily decrease of 36 and an interval decrease of 1,014. The export profit was -332, a daily increase of 42 and an interval increase of 277 [3][12]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,250, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 450. The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 300. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,400, with no daily change and an interval decrease of 200. CFR China was 1,090, a daily decrease of 10 and an interval decrease of 10 [3][12]. - **Profitability**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 276, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 440. The import profit was 310, a daily decrease of 18 and an interval decrease of 228. The export profit was -1,064, a daily increase of 86 and an interval increase of 340 [3][12]. Downstream Profit - The ABS production profit was 232, a daily decrease of 22 and an interval decrease of 94. The SBS production profit (791 - H) remained at 930, with no daily change and an interval increase of 340 [3][12]. Spread - **Inter - Variety Spread**: RU - BR was -24,745, a daily increase of 1,381 and an interval increase of 8,841. NR - BR was -27,115, a daily increase of 1,351 and an interval increase of 8,701. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,750, with no daily change and an interval increase of 50 [3][12]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber remained at 250, with no daily or interval change. The difference between butadiene styrene 1502 and 1712 remained at 1,100, with no daily or interval change [3][12].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250731
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 00:20
Group 1: Report Information - The report is titled "Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 31, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Analysis Contract and Position - On July 30, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,775, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 100. The position was 39,690, a daily decrease of 1,446 and a weekly decrease of 8,901. The trading volume was 100,392, a daily decrease of 4,222 and a weekly decrease of 24,690. The warrant quantity was 10,190, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350. The virtual - real ratio was 19.47, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] Basis and Spread - The butadiene - styrene basis was 425 on July 30, a daily increase of 60 and no weekly change. The 8 - 9 month spread was - 50, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 85. The 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BR was 11,800 on July 30, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The Chuanhua market price was 11,800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] Processing and Profit - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, with no daily or weekly change. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 20. The spot processing profit was 52, a daily increase of 52 and a weekly increase of 359. The on - screen processing profit was 140, a daily increase of 42 and a weekly increase of 359. The import profit was - 86,839, a daily decrease of 36 and a weekly decrease of 1,014. The export profit was - 332, a daily increase of 42 and a weekly increase of 277 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Analysis Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BD was 9,250 on July 30, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 450. The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 300. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] Processing and Profit - The CFR China price was 1,090, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 10. The carbon - four extraction profit was not available. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 276, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 440. The import profit was 310, a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 228. The export profit was - 1,064, a daily increase of 86 and a weekly increase of 340 [4] Group 4: Downstream Profit Analysis - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 340. The ABS production profit was 232, a daily decrease of 22 and a weekly decrease of 94. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 340 [4] Group 5: Inter - Variety Spread Analysis - On July 30, the RU - BR spread was - 24,745, a daily increase of 1,381 and a weekly increase of 8,841. The NR - BR spread was - 27,115, a daily increase of 1,351 and a weekly increase of 8,701. The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,700, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250730
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:44
Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-30 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [2] - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from cost and supply side for butadiene rubber has weakened, leading to a rapid rise and fall in both the futures and mainstream supply prices. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is passive. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber units of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene unit is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, production enterprise inventories may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the production resumption of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises fell short of expectations, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and the overall order performance was insufficient. Some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 39,690, a decrease of 1,446. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, unchanged. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all decreased. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 175 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 72.51 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.47 dollars; WTI crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,090 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan; the social inventory was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] 5. Industry News - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]