"统治全球工业"非虚妄！美智库报告预警：关税战下，中国45%份额成定局？美国恐只剩"高价低 质"的国内市场！ 当《纽约时报》以醒目标题宣告"一个属于中国的世纪可能已经到来"时，全球商业领袖的目光正聚 焦东方。 这篇引发巨大震荡的重磅文章作者——普林斯顿研究员、兰德公司智库专家Kyle Chan在《纽约时 报》发表的评论中，以"中国产业政策专家"身份向特朗普政府发出尖锐警告。 中国已在钢铁、铝、造船、电池、太阳能、电动汽车、风力涡轮机、无人机、5G设备、消费电子、 活性药物成分及高铁等12个关键产业中占据全球产量榜首，且这种主导地位正以"指数级速度"向高 附加值领域蔓延。他援引多方研究称，2030年中国制造业产值将飙升至全球45%，相当于美、 日、德三国总和的2.3倍，届时"作为卓越的世界技术和经济超级大国，中国的工厂将遍布世界各 地，并将以中国为中心重新配置供应链"，而美国恐怕只有底特律那样的未来。 文章开篇即指出，长期存在于西方理论界的"中国世纪"预言，即"中国凭借经济与技术潜力重塑全 球权力格局、确立北京为中心的时代"可能已成现实。 他进一步强调，特朗普第二任期初期的政策失误，正加速中美实力对比的质变：关 ...

"统治全球工业"非虚妄！美智库报告预警：关税战下，中国45%份额成定局？美国恐只剩"高价低质"的国内市场！ 当《纽约时报》以醒目标题宣告"一个属于中国的世纪可能已经到来"时，全球商业领袖的目光正聚焦东方。 这篇引发巨大震荡的重磅文章作者——普林斯顿研究员、兰德公司智库专家Kyle Chan在《纽约时报》发表的评论中，以"中国产业政策专家"身份向特朗普 政府发出尖锐警告。 文章开篇即指出，长期存在于西方理论界的"中国世纪"预言，即"中国凭借经济与技术潜力重塑全球权力格局、确立北京为中心的时代"可能已成现实。 他进一步强调，特朗普第二任期初期的政策失误，正加速中美实力对比的质变：关税战削弱美国创新根基，削减科研投入迫使人才外流，美国正在错失与中 国角逐的关键窗口。 而中国通过国家主导的长期战略，在新能源、半导体、人工智能等关键领域形成技术良性循环。他援引比亚迪销量碾 压特斯拉、中国占据全球45%工业机 器人装机量等标志性事件，揭示中国以举国体制推动的"曼哈顿计划式"高科技攻坚，正在电动汽车、芯片、商用飞机等战略领域构建难以撼动的壁垒。 凤凰网财经发现，Kyle Chan大量引述的产业数据——如中国占全球制造业45 ...

| 产品组合 | | --- | | 工业机器人 | 9.6% | | --- | --- | | 注塑机、配套设备 | 17.8% | | 数控机床 | 10.7% | | 自动化应用系统 | 16.7% | | 智能能源及环境管理 | 42.8% | | 系统 | | 公司基本信息 | 产业别 | | 机械设备 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/6/23) | | 31.97 | | 深证成指(2025/6/23) | | 10048.39 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 43.5/9.37 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 476.97 | | A 股数(百万) | | 337.69 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 107.96 | | 主要股东 | | 吴丰礼 | | | | (30.32%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 5.87 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 5.44 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -6.2 | -0.2 166.6 | 2025 年 06 月 24 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.co ...

2025 年 06 月 22 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250614-20250620） 本期投资提示： 比 较 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 行 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共5页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。2 ✓ 房地产：2025 年 1-5 月全国商品房销售面积同比下降 ...

Core Insights - Suzhou's total import and export value from January to May reached 1,076.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 6% of the national total [1] - Exports amounted to 679.55 billion yuan, growing by 8.6%, while imports were 396.6 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [1] Trade Performance - General trade exports and processing trade imports in Suzhou maintained rapid growth, with general trade import and export totaling 462.17 billion yuan, up 7.4% [1] - Exports in general trade reached 316.4 billion yuan, a growth of 15.4%, driven by the small household appliance industry in Wuzhong District [1] - Processing trade import and export totaled 448.79 billion yuan, growing by 3.5%, with imports at 174.07 billion yuan, increasing by 7.6% [1] Foreign and Domestic Enterprises - Foreign-funded enterprises had an import and export value of 617.01 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, while domestic enterprises reached 459.03 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3% [1] - Both foreign and domestic enterprises showed parallel growth in import and export activities [1] Belt and Road Initiative - Suzhou's import and export to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 471.46 billion yuan, growing by 15.4%, contributing 6.2 percentage points to the city's overall growth [1] - Trade with ASEAN countries amounted to 206.45 billion yuan, a significant increase of 30.5% [1] - Trade with BRICS countries and Africa reached 107.42 billion yuan and 18.12 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [1] Export Products - From January to May, Suzhou's export of electromechanical products was 528.79 billion yuan, accounting for 77.8% of total exports, with a growth of 7.4% [2] - Notable increases in specific product categories included electrical equipment at 35.88 billion yuan (up 19.4%) and computer accessories at 14.82 billion yuan (up 57%) [2] - The export of industrial robots reached 360 million yuan, growing by 38.2%, reflecting Suzhou's focus on new industrialization [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]

又有A股上市公司进入退市整理期，这次是工智退（000584），今天（6月20日）上午盘中公司股票暴跌超过84%，同时成交量急剧放大。 值得注意的是，近期进入退市整理期的公司接二连三，相关公司在退市整理期股价普遍暴跌，尤其是在退市整理期首日普遍跌势惨烈。 | | | | | 工智退(日线) ◎ MA5: 1.31 MA10: 1.56 MA20: 1.69 MA60: 2.43 MA120: 2.92 MA250: 2.3' | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3.00 | | | ...

Group 1 - The power equipment industry is undergoing significant transformation due to the implementation of Document No. 136, which continues to promote power reform [1] - The green certificate trading rules in Guangzhou have clarified that green certificates cannot be traded twice and established a pricing mechanism [1] - Sichuan aims to cover 5% of its maximum load with a power demand response mechanism [1] Group 2 - The supply-side clearing in the photovoltaic industry is steadily advancing, with silicon material companies reducing production loads and leading firms planning capacity replacements, indicating a potential recovery in industry prosperity [1] - In the battery sector, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with total planned capacity nearing 450 GWh, and the 2025 Solid-State Battery Summit focusing on engineering challenges, expecting to break the 1 GWh milestone by 2028 [1] Group 3 - The European electric vehicle market continues to grow, with sales in the top ten countries increasing month-on-month in May, showing a steady rise in penetration rates and positive overseas demand [1] - The overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, with prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells continuing to drop, while module prices remain stable amid intensified industry competition [1] - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector maintain high operating rates despite the competitive landscape [1] Group 4 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812) compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting quality listed companies in high-end manufacturing and automation from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index focuses on manufacturing sectors with high technological content and growth potential, reflecting the trend of China's manufacturing industry towards intelligence and automation [1]

Core Insights - The reasons for multinational companies to invest in China have shifted from cost advantages to innovation and efficiency in the supply chain [1][2] - China is increasingly recognized for its capabilities in research and development, as well as its talent pool, particularly in emerging industries like electric vehicles and drones [2] Investment Trends - Multinational companies are now focusing on China's industrial chain efficiency and innovation capabilities, moving away from traditional factors like labor and land costs [2] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, has seen significant foreign investment, with companies establishing manufacturing bases in cities like Hefei and Jiaxing [2] New Consumer Opportunities - The rise of "new consumption" trends in China is creating opportunities for global retailers, with a shift towards experiential and personalized services [3] - The retail market is seeing a notable increase in service-oriented consumption, with 73% of retail inquiries related to new store openings or expansions, the highest since mid-last year [3][4] Commercial Real Estate Insights - The demand for commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality properties, is increasing as consumer spending rises [5] - Investors are advised to focus on core cities in major urban areas like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area, as these regions show strong potential for commercial real estate investment [6] Future Outlook - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to approach 49 trillion yuan in 2024, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [4] - There is an anticipated investment window in the next 6-12 months for certain asset classes, particularly in first and second-tier cities [6]

扫码订阅 智能制造 产业日报， 1.【我国新一代载人飞船分"7座"和"3座"进行研制】6月17日，我国在酒泉卫星发射中心成功组织实 施梦舟载人飞船零高度逃逸飞行试验。零高度逃逸试验的完成对于梦舟飞船的研制是飞船完成初样设 计的重要标志，后续，"梦舟"载人飞船将投入正样飞行器的研制阶段。"梦舟"载人飞船是我国新一代 载人天地往返运输飞行器，由航天科技集团五院抓总研制，采用模块化设计，由返回舱和服务舱两舱 构成，在神舟飞船技术基础上实现了全面升级，通过灵活配置可满足不同深度的空间任务需求。"梦 舟"飞船规划两个核心型号：近地版可支持中国空间站运营，最多可搭载7名航天员往返地面与近地轨 道登月版则服务于载人月球探测任务，可搭载3名航天员穿越地月空间（央视新闻） 2. 【英特尔计划裁减芯片制造部门15%至20%员工】6月18日消息，据环球网援引CRN报道称，英 特尔计划裁减芯片制造部门15%至20%员工，其他部门也将面临裁员。英特尔发言人表示，公司正 采取措施，成为一家更精简、更快速、更高效的公司，以更好地满足客户需求并增强执行力。这些决 定是基于对未来业务定位的仔细考量，公司将关怀和尊重员工。（科创板日报） 3.【 ...