金融界4月9日消息，上证指数低开高走，沪深300汽车与零部件指数 (300汽车，L11506)报9285.43点。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当沪深300指数调整样本时，沪深300行业指数样本 随之进行相应调整。在样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对沪深300行业指数 样本进行相应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 数据统计显示，沪深300汽车与零部件指数近一个月下跌10.23%，近三个月上涨0.40%，年至今下跌 5.11%。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比51.54%、深圳证券交易所占比 48.46%。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数持仓样本的行业来看，乘用车占比72.16%、汽车内饰与外饰占比16.55%、 轮胎占比4.01%、汽车系统部件占比3.93%、汽车电子占比3.35 ...

上汽集团 600104.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月08日） | 14.62 元 | | 目标价格 | 21.40 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 21.3/11.49 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 1,157,530/1,157,530 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 169,231 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -7 -10.85 -18.28 -1.81 相对表现% -0.91 -3.41 -14.63 -5.04 沪深 300% -6.09 -7.44 -3.65 3.23 | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | 袁俊轩 | yuanjunxuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052307 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits for domestic parts companies building factories in Mexico due to the new tariff policies announced by Trump, which will not impose additional tariffs on certain goods [9][12] - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robotics and automotive supply chain investment opportunities, with expectations for profitability and valuation increases [3][14] - The anticipated growth in market share for competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology by 2025 is emphasized [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies such as SAIC Motor, BYD, and Changan Automobile, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][15] - Specific companies highlighted include: - SAIC Motor (buy) - Changan Automobile (buy) - BYD (not rated) - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (buy) - GAC Group (buy) [15] Market Performance - The report notes a decline in the automotive sector, with a 3.5% drop in the CITIC automotive sector index, underperforming the CSI 300 index [17] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the automotive sector, including New Aluminum Era and Jiuyi Co., while also noting significant declines in others like Junda Co. [17][18] Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics indicate a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in March, with total sales reaching 2.41 million units [26] - Retail sales also saw a 12% increase year-on-year, totaling 1.89 million units in March [26] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of new models such as the AITO M8 and M9, which are expected to boost sales for the brand [2][14] - It also highlights the performance of various companies, with notable growth in revenue and profit for firms like Seres and Bojun Technology [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 2025 PE average valuation of 20 times [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is making progress in its reforms and partnerships, particularly with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance. The domestic sales of the company's self-owned brands saw a significant year-on-year improvement, with a 58.7% increase in the first quarter [10]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project EPS of 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a predicted revenue of 611.67 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8% [4][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720.99 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 726.20 billion CNY in 2023. However, a significant drop to 611.67 billion CNY is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.25 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.88 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 16.12 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a forecasted drop to 1.77 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12.38 billion CNY in 2025 and 13.39 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% by 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% in 2026 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 20 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is experiencing significant improvements in domestic sales of its self-owned brands, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7% in the first quarter. The sales of new energy vehicles in March reached 125,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.2% [10]. - The company is advancing its collaboration with Huawei, aiming to enhance its product development and marketing capabilities, which is expected to gradually improve the sales and brand influence of its self-owned brands [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720,988 million CNY, with a projected revenue of 611,672 million CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8%. However, revenue is expected to recover to 721,878 million CNY by 2026, with a growth rate of 7.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16,118 million CNY in 2022, projected to drop to 1,771 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 13,389 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 8.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.15 CNY in 2024, 1.07 CNY in 2025, and 1.16 CNY in 2026 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.65 HKD [2] - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 24.5% year-on-year growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 16,632 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 213.3% [4][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 3.3 HKD per 10 shares to all shareholders [9] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales reached 2.1767 million units in 2024, marking a 32.0% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 91.9% [9] - The company has set ambitious sales targets for its brands, with specific goals for 吉利 (Geely), 极氪 (Zeekr), and 领克 (Lynk & Co) [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch a new cycle of electric vehicles in 2025, with multiple new models planned under its upgraded Galaxy brand [9] - The integration of advanced intelligent driving systems across all new models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - The revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 19.05 RMB or 20.65 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% - The operating profit for 2023 was 3,806 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 4.3% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5,308 million RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% - The gross margin for 2023 was 15.3%, with a net margin of 3.0% and a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6% [4][10][11] Sales and Growth Projections - The company aims for a total sales target of 271,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5% - The sales targets for the brands are set at 200,000 for Geely, 32,000 for Zeekr, and 39,000 for Lynk & Co, with respective growth rates of 19.8%, 44.1%, and 36.6% [9][10] Brand and Product Development - The company plans to launch five new energy models under the Galaxy brand in 2025, alongside several updated models, all equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems [9][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 88.82 million units in 2024, marking a 91.9% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.8% of total sales [9] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China, with a market capitalization of 168,281 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.5 in 2023 to 7.9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.22 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in its automotive parts business margins and is focusing on advancements in its robotics business [1]. - The revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios have been adjusted, with new profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of 3.666 billion, 4.246 billion, and 4.748 billion CNY respectively [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 24,558 million CNY - 2024: 27,947 million CNY (up 13.8% YoY) - 2025: 34,640 million CNY (up 23.9% YoY) - 2026: 39,396 million CNY (up 13.7% YoY) - 2027: 43,972 million CNY (up 11.6% YoY) [4][10] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: 27.6% in 2023, expected to remain stable through 2027 - Net Profit Margin: 11.9% in 2023, projected to decline slightly to 10.6% by 2025 [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.78 CNY - 2024: 0.83 CNY - 2025: 0.98 CNY - 2026: 1.14 CNY - 2027: 1.27 CNY [4][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 37.9 in 2023 to 23.3 in 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 6.2 in 2023 to 4.1 in 2027 [4][10] Business Segments - **Automotive Parts Business**: - Revenue of 113.87 billion CNY in 2024, up 14.9% YoY, with a gross margin of 27.64% [10]. - **Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Business**: - Revenue of 165.61 billion CNY in 2024, up 13.1% YoY, with a gross margin of 27.35% [10]. - **Robotics Business**: - The company is nearing mass production of humanoid robots, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.22 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with net profits projected to be 3.66 billion CNY, 4.25 billion CNY, and 4.75 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The automotive parts business is expected to see marginal improvements, while the robot business is anticipated to accelerate [10] - The company has achieved a revenue of 27.95 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [10] Financial Information - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.64 billion CNY, 39.40 billion CNY, and 43.97 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.9%, 13.7%, and 11.6% [4] - The gross margin for the automotive parts business improved to 27.64% in 2024, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The net profit margin is projected to be 10.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.6% [4][10] Business Segments - The automotive parts segment generated revenue of 113.87 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth of 14.9% [10] - The refrigeration and air conditioning business maintained steady growth, achieving revenue of 165.61 billion CNY in 2024, a 13.1% increase [10] - The robot production is nearing mass production, with Tesla aiming to produce 5,000 units of the Optimus robot in 2025 [10]

从指数持仓来看，沪深300汽车与零部件指数十大权重分别为：比亚迪（38.78%）、福耀玻璃 （10.74%）、赛力斯（10.71%）、上汽集团（8.18%）、长安汽车（7.4%）、拓普集团（4.53%）、赛 轮轮胎（4.49%）、长城汽车（3.76%）、德赛西威（3.7%）、华域汽车（3.27%）。 数据统计显示，沪深300汽车与零部件指数近一个月下跌3.48%，近三个月上涨5.64%，年至今上涨 5.04%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级、二级、三级、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数， 形成沪深300行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 沪深300汽车与零部件指数报10278.68点，前十大权 重包含上汽集团等 金融界3月26日消息，上证指数低开震荡，沪深300汽车与零部件指数 (300汽车，L11506)报10278.68 点。 从沪深300汽车与零部件指数 ...