Group 1 - Recent reports indicate that egg prices in Japan are surging due to rising feed costs and reduced production caused by high summer temperatures, nearing historical highs [1][2] - The wholesale price of medium-sized eggs in Tokyo reached 325 yen per kilogram, close to the record high of 350 yen per kilogram observed during the "egg shortage" in spring 2023 [1] - Many restaurants and cake shops are struggling with increased costs due to rising egg prices, leading to concerns about potential customer loss if they raise menu prices [1] Group 2 - The first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza this season was confirmed in Hokkaido, raising further concerns about egg price increases [2] - Compared to the previous avian influenza season, the current season's first outbreak occurred about a week earlier, which could lead to higher egg prices if the outbreak spreads [2] - During the 2022-2023 avian influenza season, over 17 million birds were culled in Japan, marking the highest number for a single season, which significantly impacted egg supply and prices [2]

Group 1 - Recent surge in egg prices in Japan due to rising feed costs and reduced production from summer heat, nearing historical highs [1][2] - As of July 27, the wholesale price of medium-sized eggs in Tokyo reached 325 yen per kilogram, close to the peak of 350 yen per kilogram during the "egg shortage" in spring 2023 [1] - Many restaurants and cake shops are struggling with increased costs, leading to concerns about potential loss of customers due to price hikes [1] Group 2 - The first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza was confirmed in Hokkaido on May 22, raising concerns about further increases in egg prices [2] - The current avian influenza season has started approximately one week earlier than the previous season, which could lead to a new record in egg prices if the outbreak spreads [2] - From October 2022 to April 2023, over 17 million birds were culled in Japan due to avian influenza, marking the highest number of culls in a single season [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply; the focus of the futures market game is whether the spot price increase can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional egg stocking season, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. There is a small increase expectation but no large increase space in terms of driving force. The futures market position is high, and it is judged to be in the bottom - building stage, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature dropped, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao at 2.53 yuan/jin, in Huilongguan in the sales area dropped to 3.12 yuan/jin, and in Dongguan dropped to 2.77 yuan/jin [11]. - **Restocking and Culling**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature drop, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price dropped after the festival, the futures basis returned to a low level, driving the monthly spread to decline [23]. - **Culling Chicken Price**: The egg price is not strong during the peak season, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the culling chicken price has dropped significantly, but the chicken age remains at a high level of 499 days [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg Chicken Restocking**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33]. - **Culling Chicken Slaughter**: Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days, but still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side - The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonal low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - High egg production capacity remains the main concern in the market, with high in - production laying hen inventory and no over - culling of old hens. Post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, leading to poor terminal digestion, cautious purchasing by traders, which drags down the egg market and suppresses near - month contracts. However, continuous losses reduce market replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to forward prices. There is a tendency for previous short positions to take profits and exit the market, causing the futures price to rebound at a low level. But high production capacity pressure may limit the rebound space. The far - month contract may perform stronger than the near - month contract due to the logic of production capacity reduction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 102; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24073 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9306; the egg futures spread between January and May contracts is - 126 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 55; the futures open interest of the active contract is 247685 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 11145; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, with no week - on - week change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.87 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03; the basis (spot - futures) is - 161 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 71 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 31.02; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, with no week - on - week change; the national new chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 3.3; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.46 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.64 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28; the national average age of culled hens is 507 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.62 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.1; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.3 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.72 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.45; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 264.92 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7179 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 442 [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.64 yuan/kg, up 0.06 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.51 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.14 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday. The in - production laying hen inventory remains high, old hens have not been over - culled, high production capacity is the main market concern, post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, terminal digestion is poor, and traders are cautious in purchasing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains high, leading to short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3147, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3328, down 11; JD09 closed at 3777, down 51 [3]. - 01 - 05 spread closed at - 181, down 11; 05 - 09 spread closed at - 449, up 40; 09 - 01 spread closed at 630, down 29 [3]. - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price in the production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3]. - The profit per chicken was - 4.68 yuan, down 0.01 from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [6]. - In September, the number of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [7]. - From October 16th to the week, the number of culled hens in the main production area was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - As of October 17th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [9]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current high laying - hen inventory and lack of over - culling of old hens result in a high - production situation, which, combined with the post - holiday seasonal decline in consumption, is expected to keep the egg supply - demand in a loose state and suppress near - month contracts. The post - holiday drop in spot prices also affects the futures market. However, continuous losses reduce market restocking enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. Overall, short - term near - month contracts are restricted by high - production pressure and falling spot prices, while far - month contracts may perform better due to the logic of production capacity reduction [6]. - For near - month contracts, a bearish trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hen culls [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, egg futures were in a low - level oscillation. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 2959 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High laying - hen inventory and post - holiday consumption decline will maintain the loose supply - demand situation and suppress near - month contracts. Continuous losses reduce restocking enthusiasm, which is good for long - term prices. Near - month contracts are restricted in the short term, while far - month contracts may be stronger [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish trading strategy for near - month contracts and monitor old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 12 - contract oscillated at a low level, with an open interest of 218,645 lots, an increase of 26,310 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was - 23,920, a slight decrease in net short positions compared to last week's - 33,849 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 30 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3008 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 49 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 220 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Restocking**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national average age of culled hens was 510 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2271.57 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 10, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.4 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Egg - hen Chick and Culled - hen Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 8.92 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In August 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,121.03 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.82% (1281.43 tons more than the same period last year) and a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure shows the change in its price - to - earnings ratio, but no specific data is provided [65].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货价格明显回落 盘面再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 鸡蛋： 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋继续收跌，2511合约收盘价为2806元/500千克，较前一周-232元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：蛋鸡在产存栏仍较高，老鸡尚未超淘，高产能仍是市场主要关注点，且节后消费季节 性转淡，鸡蛋供需宽松状态预计将继续维持，也持续压制近月合约。另外，国庆假日期间，鸡蛋 现货价格也明显下跌，节后补库也不及预期，现货市场进一步走弱，拖累节后盘面的表现。总体 而言，高产能压力仍存，叠加现货价格下跌，近月合约再度走低，远月受产能去化逻辑支撑，表 现或强于近月合约。 Ø 策略建议：近月合约仍以偏空交易为主，关注老鸡淘汰量。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价 ...

Core Insights - The average price of eggs in major production areas remains stable or shows a slight decline, indicating a softening market trend [1][2][3] - The futures market reflects a downward trend in egg prices, with a notable drop in the main contract [2][3] - High production capacity and seasonal demand fluctuations are key factors influencing the egg market [3][4] Price Overview - Shandong: 5.73 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Hebei: 6.00 CNY/kg, down 0.40 CNY [1] - Guangdong: 6.67 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Beijing: 6.20 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Futures market: Main contract at 2806.00 CNY/500kg, down 2.26% [2] Market Dynamics - Egg production remains high, with a significant number of hens still in production and older hens not being culled [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, leading to a continued oversupply situation [3][4] - The age of hens being culled has decreased but remains above levels seen in previous downturns, suggesting ongoing supply pressures [4]

观望或回落买入 鸡蛋周报 2025/09/27 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：蛋价行至高位后各环节备货量下降，市场风控情绪增多，库存回升，上周蛋价以震荡回落为主，周内老鸡出淘量偏高，淘鸡-白鸡 价差偏低，鸡龄小幅升高至498天；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周落0.1元至3.5元/斤，周内最高3.6元/斤，馆陶周落0.2元至3.11/斤，周内最高 3.22元/斤，销区回龙观周落0.13元至3.57元/斤，东莞周持平于3.19元/斤；在产存栏和冷库蛋规模偏高，市场供应充足，加之临近节日市 场风控情绪增加，蛋价或维持小幅偏弱，但节前小批量备货支撑仍在，预计蛋价小落后趋稳。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价持续低迷和养殖亏损影响，8月份全国补栏量继续下降至7962万只，环比-0.4%，同比-9.4%；8月份至今旺季不旺，蛋价 涨幅始终低于预期，加之 ...

Core Viewpoint - In September, the demand for eggs increased across the country, alleviating supply pressure and leading to a rise in egg prices, although still lower than the same period last year. Feed costs remained stable, allowing egg production to turn profitable. In October, egg prices are expected to stabilize initially before declining, with a potential reduction in profit margins for producers [1][8]. Group 1: Egg Market Dynamics - The national average price of eggs reached 3.49 yuan per jin by September 25, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.05% [1][3]. - The average cost of feed for eggs was 3.03 yuan per jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.33% month-on-month [1][3]. - The total number of laying hens increased to 1.365 billion by the end of August, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.06%, the highest level since 2021 [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for eggs improved significantly due to seasonal factors, including increased purchases by schools and food companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8]. - Despite the increase in demand, there remains some supply pressure, particularly from cold storage eggs entering the market [3][8]. - The egg production rate is expected to stabilize as temperatures drop, contributing to higher egg output [3]. Group 3: Feed Cost Trends - The price of soybean meal decreased by 3.92% compared to the beginning of the month, which slightly reduced feed costs [5][7]. - The average feed cost for eggs was reported at 3.01 yuan per jin, a minor decrease of 0.66% from the start of the month [5][7]. - Corn prices remained stable, with no significant changes observed in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In October, egg prices are anticipated to stabilize initially before experiencing a decline, with potential prices dropping to between 3.00 and 3.20 yuan per jin [8][9]. - The profit margin for egg producers is expected to shrink as feed costs may decrease at a slower rate than egg prices [9].