Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration outlines the new value-added tax (VAT) policy for individuals selling residential properties, effective from January 1, 2026. Individuals selling properties purchased within two years will be subject to a 3% VAT, while those selling properties held for two years or more will be exempt from VAT [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **VAT Policy for Residential Property Sales**: Individuals selling residential properties purchased for less than two years will pay a 3% VAT on the total sale amount. In contrast, sales of properties held for two years or longer will be exempt from VAT [1]. - **Implementation Date**: The new VAT policy will take effect on January 1, 2026. Prior to this date, any VAT related to residential property sales that has not been declared can be processed according to the new policy [1]. - **Cancellation of Previous Regulations**: The announcement also states that the previous regulations regarding the transition from business tax to VAT will be terminated simultaneously with the implementation of the new policy [1].

Group 1 - The South Korean government will require more companies to submit regulatory documents in English starting next year, enhancing transparency and providing broader market access for foreign investors [1] - The Financial Services Commission (FSC) will expand the requirement for English submissions from KOSPI-listed companies with assets over 10 trillion KRW to those with assets below 2 trillion KRW [1] - The new disclosure requirements will take effect on May 1, aiming to improve transparency and accessibility for overseas investors while enhancing the competitiveness of the local capital market [1] Group 2 - The "Yellow Envelope" law, which amends the Labor Union Act, is expected to come into effect in March next year, aimed at protecting the bargaining rights of indirectly hired workers by subcontractors [1] - The law prohibits companies from filing damage claims or temporary seizure lawsuits against workers who join unions [1] Group 3 - In 2026, South Korea's minimum wage will increase by 2.9% to 10,320 KRW per hour, with the monthly minimum wage reaching 2.15 million KRW [2] - The government has decided to expand tax incentives for domestic companies returning to South Korea, applicable to those that reduce overseas operations after establishing or expanding domestic facilities within four years [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the economic situations of the United States and China in 2026, including their economic indicators, policies, and investment opportunities. It expects the US economy to show a slowdown but not a stall, with the Fed likely to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. In China, the economy is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end of 2026, with policies remaining moderately loose. The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, especially favoring technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises [46][102][113]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs United States 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, the US economy and assets showed a divergence, with weakening economic data but strong asset performance. This was due to loose policies and the rise of AI, and this background will continue into 2026 [10]. 2.1. Entering the Third Year of the Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - In 2025, there were 3 interest - rate cuts totaling 75bp, and the federal funds rate dropped to the range of [3.50% - 3.75%]. In 2026, attention should be paid to the Fed's independence after the chairman's replacement and the Fed's policy expectations in the third year [12]. 2.2. Loose Policies: Intensified Divergence within the Fed - There are internal differences between local and council members and between hawks and doves in the Fed, as well as external differences between the White House's pressure and the Fed's independence. The divergence was intensified in the December vote pattern, as shown by the dot plot [18]. 2.3. Behind the Divergence: The Failure of Monetary Policy - The dual goals point to interest - rate cuts to improve employment. However, AI has squeezed employment, and more interest - rate cuts may further exacerbate this situation. It is estimated that the Fed will cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026, and the federal funds rate is expected to move towards the neutral rate of 3% [21]. 2.4. More Certain and Effective Fiscal Expansion - The "A Great Beautiful Act" includes tax policies (tax cuts of about 3.9 trillion), expenditure cuts (about 1.9 trillion), increased spending (about 0.35 trillion), and raising the debt ceiling from 36.1 trillion to 41.1 trillion dollars [23]. 3.1. Differentiated Investment in the US Economy, with Concentrated AI Investment - The growth rate of US private investment has shown obvious differentiation. Traditional investment demands such as housing and construction have declined, while intellectual property products and equipment have strengthened. The concentrated investment in the AI direction is the main reason [26]. 3.2. The Growth Rate of AI - Related Investment Is Much Higher Than Others - In equipment investment, information - processing equipment, and in intellectual property investment, software investment have maintained high growth rates. The proportion of relevant investment has reached over 25% [32]. 3.3. Continued Decline in US Employment - Non - farm employment and the unemployment rate have continued to weaken. AI has reduced the demand for labor while increasing productivity, leading to a continuous decline in employment [34]. 3.4. Multi - angle Observation of US Employment, Lay - offs, and Structure - Declining demand, accelerated lay - offs, and long - term unemployment together indicate increasing downward pressure on US employment [36]. 3.5. Impact of Weakening Employment - A decline in employment leads to a decrease in income, which affects household spending. Prices of optional durable goods such as cars and rent may be affected, and core inflation may decline, showing the negative correlation between unemployment and inflation [41]. 3.6. The K - shaped Economic Structure in the US - Low - income families are more likely to be affected [43]. 4.1. Mid - term Elections Are a Major Uncertainty - The mid - term elections in 2026 will go through primary elections, final elections, etc. The US will focus on itself, and Sino - US relations will enter a period of relaxation when Trump visits China in April 2026 [44]. 5.1. The Logic of the US Macroeconomic - The rise of AI has intensified resource imbalance, with concentrated AI investment and weakened non - AI investment. Monetary policy is loose but ineffective, leading to idle liquidity. Fiscal policy is loose, and the "Great Beautiful Act" may have various impacts on the economy, such as affecting inflation, the stock market, and the dollar [46]. Economic Indicators - The US economic hard data shows resilience, while soft data slows down. The overall performance slows down but does not stall. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 2% in 2026. Inflation indicators continue to slow down, with the inflation expectation dropping to 2.4%. Employment indicators continue to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp - 75bp to around 3% in 2026 [48]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is expected to decline by about 25bp. - Exchange rate: The US dollar index may continue to weaken. - Stocks: The US technology sector remains favored in the long term, but there may be increased volatility in the first half of the year. - Commodities: Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals [49]. China 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, China's economic data was significantly differentiated, with stable economic growth but a significant decline in investment. Inflation indicators deviated significantly, with CPI rising and PPI contracting. The background of economic transformation will continue [54]. 2.1. Pressures in the Economic Transformation Period - In 2025, there were still problems such as insufficient effective demand, high pressure on residents' income, and persistent youth employment issues [56]. 2.2. Development Main Line: Economic Shift towards People's Livelihood - Fiscal policy involves debt monetization, central government support for local government debt, and the central bank's support for central government debt. The central bank continues to buy gold to back the RMB. Monetary policy aims to stabilize the M2/GDP ratio, and the bond market may bottom out and rebound. Industrial policy focuses on developing new - quality productivity, normalizing the real - estate market, and promoting the service industry. Income distribution is tilted towards families, and the government focuses on people's livelihood. The real - estate market is expected to bottom out slowly, and the RMB will fluctuate more with a higher center than in 2025 [58]. 2.3. Stability Main Line: Stabilizing the Supply Chain and Positioning as a Safe Asset - Domestically, China will maintain supply - chain stability by building up inventories of upstream raw materials and keeping the proportion of manufacturing in GDP stable. Externally, it will ensure resource inflows and position itself as a safe asset to attract foreign investment [60]. 3.1. The First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - The goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan include economic growth, institutional reform, and technological and industrial upgrading. Policies will remain loose and more targeted. Monetary policy has limited room for interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and fiscal policy will be more active, with the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds not lower than in 2025 [63]. 3.2. More Precise and Effective Monetary Policy - The direction of monetary policy includes fund - swap facilities, stock - repurchase re - loans, and consumption and housing - loan interest subsidies. The M2/GDP ratio will rise, and there may be one cut each in the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate in 2026, along with the use of structural tools [65][67]. 3.3. A Lighter Fiscal Burden in 2026 - Under the pressure of debt resolution, the bond issuance of the government sector and the growth rate of infrastructure investment have diverged. More than 60% of platforms have cleared their implicit debts. In 2026, the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds will not be lower than in 2025, and special bonds can be used for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing [70]. 4.1. Investment Was the Main Drag on the Economy in 2025 - Investment growth remained low, and investment was the main factor dragging down the overall demand from January to November 2025 [78]. 4.2. Manufacturing and Infrastructure May Receive Support - The profits of the manufacturing industry improved in 2025, while infrastructure investment stalled [81]. 4.3. The Decline in Investment Is the Pain of Economic Transformation - The traditional investment model relying on real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing has high inventory, high debt, and low profits. Now, the focus is on improving production efficiency, and investment is shifting towards people's livelihood, consumption, and the service industry, with an emphasis on quality [84]. 4.4. Close Combination of Investment in Objects and Investment in People - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the close combination of investment in objects and people. The proportion of people's livelihood - related investment should be increased, and the income - distribution system should be improved [86]. 4.5. Income Growth Should Be Higher Than GDP Growth - The growth rate of residents' income has declined, and it is necessary to continuously improve the income level of the resident sector [88]. 4.6. How to Increase Income Levels - Measures include deepening the income - distribution system reform, tax cuts and fee reductions, and increasing property income [94]. 4.7. The Investment Attribute of the Stock Market Is Recovering - By improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital - market system and promoting the coordination of investment and financing functions, the stock market can increase the property income of the resident sector [96]. 4.8. Full Relaxation of Real - Estate Restrictions - The real - estate market is still in a state of "falling prices and volumes" and has not stabilized as expected. Real - estate restriction policies have been fully relaxed, and special - bond funds will support the market [101]. Economic Indicators - In 2026, the economy will be low at the beginning and high at the end. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 4.9%. Inflation indicators will rise, with core CPI reaching 1.8% and the decline of PPI narrowing to - 1%. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, with M2 remaining high, and there may be one cut each in interest rates and the reserve - requirement ratio. Fiscal policy will be more active [102]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The 10 - year Chinese treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. - Exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7. - Stocks: A - shares are still cost - effective, and attention should be paid to technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors. - Commodities: There are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products, and attention should be paid to products affected by the "anti - involution" policy [106]. Asset Allocation Bonds - US 10 - year Treasury bond yields are expected to decline by about 25bp, and Chinese 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [111]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index may continue to weaken, and the RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7 [111]. Stocks - US technology stocks remain favored in the long term, and A - shares are cost - effective, with attention on technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors [111]. Commodities - Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products [111]. Direction and Structure Judgment Direction Judgment - The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, but the increase may be smaller than in 2025. Sino - US relations will be in a period of relaxation, and domestic A - share markets will have sufficient liquidity, but the impact of liquidity will weaken [113]. Structure Judgment - The report is more optimistic about technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are introduced, undervalued sectors may have opportunities for profit and valuation repair [115].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a carbon footprint management system is essential for promoting green transformation and enhancing international competitiveness in response to global carbon pricing policies [1] Group 1: Carbon Footprint Management System - The Chinese government aims to establish a carbon footprint management system by 2027 and further improve it by 2030, addressing the need for a unified accounting standard and certification system [1] - The current challenges include a lack of standardized accounting methods, insufficient local databases, and low levels of international recognition [1] Group 2: Standard System Construction - A layered and collaborative standard system is necessary to address the fragmentation of current industry standards and improve international alignment [2] - Focus on key industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum to develop specific standards that reflect the unique characteristics of different sectors [2] Group 3: Emission Factor Database - The creation of a diverse emission factor database is crucial for ensuring the credibility of carbon accounting [3] - A national-level database is set to launch in 2025, supplemented by local and industry-specific databases to support accurate carbon footprint calculations [3] Group 4: Certification and Application Mechanism - A unified carbon footprint certification system is being developed to enhance transparency and drive low-carbon transformation across supply chains [4] - The certification process will prioritize products with high export potential and government procurement [4] Group 5: Value Creation from Carbon Footprint - Encouraging companies to integrate carbon footprint data into their procurement processes can enhance collaboration across the supply chain [5] - Financial institutions are being supported to create differentiated pricing products based on carbon footprints, promoting low-carbon financing options [5] Group 6: International Cooperation - Active participation in international carbon governance is essential, especially in light of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [6] - Establishing mutual recognition frameworks for carbon footprint data with major trading partners can reduce compliance costs for companies [6]

2025.12.31 本文字数：1401，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 周二，美国股市在清淡交投中小幅收跌，标普500指数录得连续第三个交易日下跌。通信服务板块上 涨，但未能抵消科技股和金融股走弱带来的拖累。 截至收盘，标普500指数下跌9.50点，跌幅0.14%，收于6896.24点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌55.27点，跌 幅0.24%，收于23419.08点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌94.87点，跌幅0.20%，收于48367.06点。 板块方面，受Meta Platforms上涨1.1%提振，通信服务板块在标普500各板块中涨幅居前。该公司表示， 将收购人工智能初创公司Manus，以加快在Facebook和Instagram等平台上整合先进人工智能技术。 其他科技巨头中，特斯拉跌1.13%，英伟达跌0.36%，微软涨0.08%，苹果跌0.25%，谷歌-A涨0.09%，博 通涨0.13%，亚马逊涨0.20%，超威半导体跌0.13%。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.27%，阿里巴巴跌0.76%，拼多多跌0.28%，京东跌 1.91%。上涨股当中，网易涨0.80%，百度涨4.39 ...

Group 1: Policy Changes and Economic Measures - The State Council of China announced the implementation of the VAT Law Regulations starting January 1, 2026, which includes tax incentives and requires timely public disclosure of VAT exemption standards and conditions [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released a notice on the "Two New" policy for 2026, adjusting the subsidy for old-for-new vehicle exchanges to a percentage of the vehicle price, while maintaining the upper limit for automobile subsidies [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration confirmed a reduction in the VAT rate for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The automotive industry is set to receive support through a one-time subsidy for consumers who scrap older vehicles and purchase new energy vehicles or fuel-efficient cars, as outlined in the 2026 implementation details [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a digital transformation plan for the automotive industry, aiming for over 95% adoption of design tools and a 10% increase in labor productivity by 2027 [1] - The securities and futures industry saw a significant increase in the number of private asset management products registered, with a 44.78% month-on-month increase and a 129.96% year-on-year increase in November 2025 [1] Group 3: Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit increase of approximately 59%-62% for 2025, attributed to higher production and sales prices of key mineral products [1] - Sichuan Road and Bridge signed a highway construction contract worth 154.58 billion yuan [5] - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 46.05 billion yuan [5]

Market Performance - Major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 94.87 points (-0.20%), Nasdaq down 55.27 points (-0.24%), and S&P 500 down 9.50 points (-0.14%) [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index decreased by 0.27%, reflecting mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks [1] Technology Sector - Large tech stocks exhibited varied performance: Tesla fell over 1%, Nvidia down 0.36%, Apple down 0.26%, while Facebook rose over 1%, Amazon up 0.2%, Microsoft and Google both up 0.09% [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, EHang Intelligent surged over 5%, Tiger Brokers and Baidu Group increased over 4%, while XPeng Motors and NIO rose over 3% [1] - Conversely, Dingdong Maicai dropped over 7%, Vipshop fell 7%, and JD Group and Pony.ai declined nearly 2% [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a rebound, with COMEX gold futures up 0.2% at $4352.3 per ounce and spot gold up 0.17% at $4338.83 per ounce [2] - COMEX silver futures surged 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce, while spot silver rose 5.66% to $76.239 per ounce, reaching a peak of $78 during trading [2] - Platinum on NYMEX rose by 4%, while palladium saw a slight decline of 0.14% [2] Oil Prices - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil futures settling down 0.22% at $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures down 0.03% at $61.92 per barrel [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 14.9%, with an 85.1% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, while the chance of maintaining rates is at 48.3% [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a slight decline with the S&P 500 index falling for the third consecutive trading day, closing down 9.50 points or 0.14% at 6896.24 points. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 55.27 points or 0.24% to 23419.08 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 94.87 points or 0.20% to 48367.06 points [1] - The communication services sector saw gains, primarily driven by Meta Platforms, which rose by 1.1% following its announcement to acquire AI startup Manus to enhance AI integration on platforms like Facebook and Instagram [2] Company Performance - Meta Platforms' acquisition of Manus is aimed at accelerating the integration of advanced AI technologies into its platforms, indicating a strategic move to enhance user engagement and technological capabilities [2] - Other major tech stocks showed mixed performance: Tesla fell by 1.13%, Nvidia by 0.36%, Microsoft rose by 0.08%, Apple decreased by 0.25%, and Amazon increased by 0.20% [2] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector faced notable pressure, with Goldman Sachs down 0.87% and American Express down 0.51%. Citigroup also fell by 0.8% after announcing the sale of its remaining business in Russia, which is expected to result in a pre-tax loss of approximately $1.2 billion due to currency conversion issues [3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a thorough discussion on inflation and employment risks before deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points. However, there was no broad consensus among officials regarding the necessity and timing of the rate cut [4] - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with the market generally expecting the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged [5] Real Estate Market - Recent data indicated that U.S. home prices in October experienced the slowest year-over-year growth in over 13 years. However, pending home sales in November increased by 3.3%, surpassing the market's previous expectation of 1% [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices experienced slight declines for the third consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 down 0.14% to 6896.24 points, the Nasdaq down 0.24% to 23419.08 points, and the Dow Jones down 0.2% to 48367.06 points, reflecting a lack of significant market catalysts during the year-end holiday period [1][3]. Metal Market - Following a significant drop, metals such as silver and copper rebounded sharply, with Comex silver futures rising nearly 8% after a 7% drop, and London spot silver increasing over 5%. Copper also saw a daily increase of over 3% after a previous decline [5][7]. - Nickel prices surged by 6% due to Indonesia's plans to cut production, reaching a nearly one-year high [5]. Company Performance - In the tech sector, notable stock movements included Nvidia down 0.36%, Apple down 0.25%, Google-A up 0.09%, and Meta up 1.10% after announcing the acquisition of Manus. Tesla saw a decline of 1.13% [8]. - Chinese stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.27%. Alibaba fell 0.76%, while Baidu rose 4.39% [8]. Tesla Deliveries - Tesla's stock dropped over 1% after the company published delivery estimates for Q4 2025, projecting 422,850 vehicle deliveries, a 15% year-over-year decline. Other analysts estimated deliveries at 440,907, reflecting an 11% decrease [9][11]. Investment Activities - SoftBank has reportedly completed a $40 billion investment commitment to OpenAI, marking one of the largest private financings in history and enhancing SoftBank's strategic positioning in the AI sector [12]. - Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion, focusing on its highly skilled workforce [14].

人无信不立。随着个人信用重要性日益凸显，信用修复问题也备受关注。中国人民银行日前发布一次性 信用修复政策，符合相关条件的逾期信息将不会在个人信用报告中予以展示，助力个人高效便捷重塑信 用，卸下"包袱"轻装前行。 当今社会，个人信用早已超越金融范畴，成为人们融入社会、追求美好生活的"通行证"。对信用受损者 而言，不良记录如同一道无形的"紧箍咒"，令其在贷款、求职、出行等方面处处受限。不良记录的产 生，有的源于缺乏诚信意识的主观故意，也有的是因失业、疾病等客观原因导致的"无心之失"。信用修 复政策为那些非恶意失信且已积极改正的人提供"出路"，避免因一次失误而长期受限。 根据政策，对于2020年1月1日至2025年12月31日期间单笔金额不超过1万元人民币的个人逾期信息，个 人于2026年3月31日（含）前足额偿还逾期债务的，金融信用信息基础数据库将不予展示。这既体现了 制度的善意与精准，也显示出惩教结合、标本兼治的现代治理理念，有助于激发微观主体活力，也有利 于金融机构更加精准识别个人信用状况，进一步提升普惠金融服务质效，更有利于构建崇信向善的诚信 社会。 不过，"一次性"也意味着适用范围有限，未来制度善意能否覆 ...