证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心观点 策略研究·策略专题 | 证券分析师：吴信坤 | 证券分析师：余培仪 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-61761046 | 021-61761040 | | | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525120001 | S0980526010001 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 8526.31/3.18 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 3311.51/3.38 | | AH 股价差指数 | | 119.27 | | A 股总/流通市值 (万亿元) | | 101.97/93.33 | | 市场走势 | | | 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices has prompted Hong Kong-listed companies, such as Emperor Entertainment Hotel, to sell gold to recover financial losses [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Sale Details - Emperor Entertainment Hotel announced the sale of multiple gold bars weighing a total of 79 kilograms for HKD 99.7 million, with a net profit of approximately HKD 90.2 million after transaction costs [2][3]. - The gold bars were originally recorded at a book value of HKD 9.4 million, which was also the purchase price [2]. - The sale is part of a strategy to enhance the company's financial position, especially after the cessation of its gaming operations [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the six months ending September 30, 2025, Emperor Entertainment Hotel reported total revenue of approximately HKD 336 million, a decline from HKD 408 million in the same period the previous year [2]. - The company recorded a net loss of approximately HKD 73.1 million, compared to a net loss of HKD 226 million in the prior year [2]. Group 3: Background on Emperor Group - Emperor Group, founded by businessman Yang Shou Cheng, has expanded from a watch retail business to a well-known entertainment empire in Hong Kong [4]. - The group includes various subsidiaries, such as Emperor Watch & Jewellery, Emperor International Holdings, and Emperor Capital, among others [4]. - The company faced a debt crisis, particularly related to its real estate arm, Emperor International, which reported a significant increase in losses [4][5].

弘阳地产(01996)发布公告，本公司、附属公司及联营公司(本集团)2026年1月份的合约销售金额为人民 币1.00亿元，同比减少85.05%;销售面积为7523平方米;平均销售价格为每平方米人民币13323元。 ...

格隆汇2月5日丨弘阳地产(01996.HK)发布公告，集团2026年1月份的合约销售金额为人民币1.00亿元； 销售面积为7,523平方米；平均销售价格为每平方米人民币13,323元。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment since the second half of 2021, nearing the average adjustment period internationally. The stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for economic development [2][9] - The decline in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities signals that these cities often lead the overall adjustment in the country. The report suggests that the "correction" phase may enter a deeper stage starting from May 2025 [9][10] - The experiences of Japan and Hong Kong in terms of housing price recovery, particularly the relationship between rental yield and housing prices, are highlighted as important references for understanding the current situation in China [3][28] Group 1: First-tier City Price Adjustments - The report notes that first-tier cities have shown a more resilient new housing price trend compared to second and third-tier cities. However, since May 2025, second-hand housing prices in these cities have entered a "correction" phase with a more significant decline [10] - Historical data indicates that first-tier cities typically lead the national adjustment process, suggesting that the current price corrections may indicate a transition into a more profound adjustment phase [10] Group 2: Rental Yield and Housing Price Relationship - The report argues that rental yield should be compared with loan interest rates rather than government bond yields. A rental yield exceeding loan interest rates is seen as a preliminary step towards price stabilization, with actual price recovery dependent on rising rental prices [3][28] - The report emphasizes that the relationship between rental prices and housing prices is crucial, with evidence showing that rental price increases are necessary for housing price recovery [3][28] Group 3: Current Rental and Price Trends in China - The report identifies a positive correlation between rental and housing price increases in 2025, with specific examples from cities like Urumqi, where both rental and housing prices are expected to rise simultaneously [3][69] - Positive signals are emerging from major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and others, where rental prices have recently increased, leading to either price stabilization or a reduction in price declines [76][78]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market's potential systemic issues may first impact ordinary wage earners rather than speculative investors, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of housing price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Impact on Ordinary Families - A significant drop in housing prices could lead to ordinary families, like Xiao Wang's, facing negative equity, where their property value falls below their mortgage debt [5][6] - Families burdened with heavy mortgages may be forced to cut essential expenses, leading to a cycle of financial distress and reduced consumer spending [8][9] - The interconnectedness of the real estate sector with various industries means that widespread financial difficulties among homeowners could lead to job losses and further economic contraction [9][11] Group 2: Economic Consequences - A decline in housing prices can erode public confidence in asset value, resulting in decreased consumer spending and a potential economic downturn characterized by deflation [11] - The chain reaction from foreclosures and forced sales can depress property values in entire neighborhoods, affecting the financial stability of many households [10] Group 3: Proposed Solutions - The need for a balanced approach is emphasized, advocating for a stable housing market that avoids systemic financial risks while providing affordable housing solutions for low-income groups [13] - Government initiatives should focus on constructing affordable housing and converting existing properties into social housing to support vulnerable populations [13] - A healthy real estate market with robust safety mechanisms is deemed more beneficial for the majority than one characterized by irrational price fluctuations [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas data shows a decline in the US labor market and a recovery in manufacturing, with continued tech decline in overseas markets and lingering or potentially escalating risk - aversion sentiment. The focus on tech is more on performance realization rather than long - term narratives [1]. - The domestic market shows an oscillating trend with significant internal divergence, where the market index is stronger than individual stocks, and hotspots are concentrated in photovoltaic electrical equipment. High - valuation sectors with difficult - to - realize performance face risks, and there is a shift in capital from high - to low - valuation sectors, which is an important factor for the rise of the resource sector at the beginning of this year. The index is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with strong support at 4000 - 4050 points and pressure at 4200 points. Market trading sentiment will further decline approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and is expected to pick up after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the performance of traditional cyclical sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - The US ADP employment in January was 22,000, lower than the expected 48,000 and the previously - reported figure. The US Department of Labor will resume normal full operation on February 4, with the release of non - farm payroll data on February 11 and CPI data rescheduled to February 13 [1][4]. - The US Treasury maintains its debt - issuing strategy unchanged. Iran - US nuclear negotiations will be held in Oman on Friday. The US announced cooperation with Japan, Mexico, and the EU to jointly develop key mineral resources [5][6]. - On the evening of February 4, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. In the afternoon of February 4, President Xi Jinping had a video meeting with Russian President Putin. The central bank held a 2026 credit market working meeting, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. The Ministry of Commerce expressed high concern and strong dissatisfaction over the EU's frequent use of the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" to investigate Chinese enterprises. An expert seminar on the "14th Five - Year Plan for the Gold Industry (Discussion Draft)" was held in Beijing [7][8][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, premium/discount rates, annualized premium/discount rates, contract delivery dates, and remaining times of various stock index futures contracts, including those of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents data on the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, net position changes, short - position open interest changes, and long - position open interest changes of various futures contracts and their corresponding indices, as well as the total data [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, such as the Shanghai 50 Index and CSI 300 Index [14][15][17]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Data on the current year's price changes, trading value, daily price change rates, monthly price change rates, current points, weekly price change rates, and other indicators of major stock indices and sectors are provided, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and various industry sectors [35]. - **Market Style Impact on Indexes**: The report analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including the number of stocks, weights, daily contributions, weekly contributions, monthly contributions, and annual contributions [36][37]. - **Index Valuation**: Charts show the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan sectors [39][43]. - **Market Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: Charts present the Sunday - average trading volume, Sunday - average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [45][46][47]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: A chart shows the currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection of the central bank's open - market operations [50][51]. - **Shibor Interest Rate Levels**: A chart presents the levels of different - term Shibor interest rates [50][52].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has released a report listing the latest "Conviction Buy" (Select) list for the Asia-Pacific region, which now includes Mao Geping (01318) [1] - The report indicates that the overall cosmetics industry may face challenges in profitability due to rising online customer acquisition costs, diminishing channel transformation benefits, and increased tax burdens [1] - Despite industry challenges, Mao Geping is expected to outperform the market, with projected compound annual growth rates for sales and net profit reaching 23% and 22% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - The report has removed DISCO (6146.JP), China Resources Land (01109), and Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.US) from the "Conviction Buy" list [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite challenges in the overall cosmetics industry, 毛戈平 (Mao Geping) is expected to outperform the market [1] - The report highlights that the cosmetics industry is facing rising customer acquisition costs, diminishing channel transformation benefits, and increased tax burdens, which may impact profitability [1] - 毛戈平 is newly added to the "Conviction Buy" list, while DISCO, 华润置地, and Reliance Industries have been removed [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that 毛戈平's sales and net profit will achieve compound annual growth rates of 23% and 22%, respectively, from 2025 to 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on the investment opportunities in the overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises, particularly in green real estate and manufacturing sectors, indicating a strong potential for growth and strategic alignment with global trends [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that by 2024, the overseas revenue of Chinese listed companies is expected to exceed RMB 10 trillion, accounting for 13.8% of total revenue, marking a significant shift towards internationalization as a survival strategy for businesses [7][9]. - It identifies the dual drivers of internal capacity surplus and external geopolitical pressures as key factors pushing Chinese enterprises to expand overseas, particularly in green manufacturing and real estate [8][9]. - The report outlines the increasing importance of Southeast Asia and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative as primary destinations for Chinese investments, with a focus on logistics, industrial parks, and commercial real estate [8][9]. Summary by Sections Current Status of Chinese Enterprises Going Abroad - In the first nine months of 2025, China's total outward direct investment flow reached USD 128.93 billion (RMB 92.37 billion), with non-financial investments accounting for over 85% [10]. - By the end of 2024, China's outward direct investment stock exceeded USD 3.1 trillion, maintaining a global share of 7.2% [11]. - The report notes that in 2024, China's outward direct investment accounted for 11.9% of the global total, positioning it among the top three global investors for 13 consecutive years [12]. Investment Trends and Characteristics - Traditional sectors such as wholesale, retail, and manufacturing continue to dominate, accounting for 83.8% of total outward direct investment in 2024, with manufacturing investment increasing by 37.3% [18]. - Emerging sectors, particularly in high technology, saw a remarkable increase, with investments in information transmission and software services surging by 205.5% [19]. - The report indicates a significant rebound in mergers and acquisitions, with a 70% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a recovery in investment activity [23]. Geographic Distribution of Investments - Southeast Asia remains the primary destination for Chinese investments, with notable growth in Indonesia and Vietnam, driven by regional integration and infrastructure needs [30][37]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the Belt and Road Initiative countries, where Chinese investments in mergers and acquisitions reached USD 12.4 billion, marking an 84% increase [29]. - In North America, investments are focused on high-tech sectors, while in Europe, the emphasis is on financial technology and automotive industries [40][41]. Real Estate and Supporting Sectors - The report notes a shift in real estate investments from traditional residential development to industrial and commercial properties, with a focus on logistics and industrial parks [52][54]. - Key strategies include providing industrial facilities for manufacturing and renewable energy companies, expanding into high-demand urban areas, and supporting cross-border business needs [54][56]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning real estate investments with local market demands and economic growth potential [68].