Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Weifang City emphasizes the importance of the construction and real estate industries in stabilizing economic growth and outlines strategies for high-quality development in these sectors [1][2] Group 1: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The focus is on promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, optimizing housing supply, and addressing the actual needs of various districts [1] - Strategies include enhancing housing consumption, leveraging the "golden September and silver October" sales period, and innovating pathways for "old-for-new" exchanges to stimulate demand [1] - There is a strong push for the construction of quality housing, encouraging companies to improve design, construction, management, and service levels to create safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes [1] Group 2: Construction Industry Development - The meeting calls for accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry, promoting smart, green, and prefabricated construction methods [2] - There is an emphasis on strengthening local enterprises and encouraging partnerships with leading construction firms to participate in major projects and expand both domestic and international markets [2] - The government aims to support enterprises by streamlining processes, ensuring resource availability, and enhancing financial support from institutions to ensure stable operations [2] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Industry Regulation - A systems approach is advocated to coordinate various forces, enhance collaboration, and improve industry regulation and public awareness [2] - The meeting included exchanges from various local government departments and major construction groups, indicating a collective effort towards achieving high-quality development in the construction and real estate sectors [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was significantly above 5.3%, exceeding market expectations[4] - Despite a strong supply side, demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, which still holds a high proportion of household wealth[4] Group 2: Real Estate Insights - Rental yield is crucial; properties with rental yields above 3% are considered attractive if government bond yields are around 2%[8] - Historical data shows that even with high rental yields, such as 6% in the U.S. during 2012, housing prices did not stabilize until later[8] - The rental yield and price-to-rent ratio are essential indicators for assessing property value, similar to price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market[8] Group 3: Price Stability Factors - Housing prices are influenced by expectations of future price movements; when prices are expected to rise, rental yields become less significant[13] - A study of 13 economies revealed that during housing price adjustments, rental yields often revert to historical highs, indicating a compression of property valuations[16] - Stabilizing housing prices requires managing inflation expectations, as asset prices reflect the underlying economy[16] Group 4: Policy Implications - Recent macroeconomic policies in China have focused on boosting expectations and inflation, which are critical for stabilizing housing prices[17] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to play a key role in stabilizing housing prices and supporting domestic demand[17] Group 5: Risks - Global geopolitical risks, uncertainties in U.S. policies, and changes in regulatory policies pose significant risks to the housing market[20]

Production Side - In September, the average operating rate for electric furnaces and rebar steel was 61.70% and 42.21%, respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous month[3] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt improved significantly, reaching an average of 34.38%, up by 10.35 percentage points from last month and 32.34% year-on-year[3] - The capacity utilization rates for coking, glass, cement clinker, and cold-rolled steel improved, recorded at 79.49%, 78.21%, 52.22%, and 78.21% respectively[3] Demand Side - In September, the transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 4.92% month-on-month, while land transaction area in 100 cities rose by 26.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 66,930 units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.17%[4] - The average weekly box office revenue for movies dropped to 635 million yuan, a decrease of 59.61% month-on-month, but a significant year-on-year increase of 70.02%[4] Price Side - The PPI for copper and aluminum saw increases of 1.77% and 0.22% respectively, while rebar and diesel prices fell by 1.75% each[6] - The average price of cement was 342.72 yuan/ton, up by 1.06% month-on-month, but lower than the previous year's average[79] - The price of petroleum asphalt increased to 3,513.20 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 0.27%[81]

Core Insights - Recent policies in China aim to combat "involution" and promote high-quality economic development through various measures targeting ten key industries [1][3][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new growth plans for ten major industries, which collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address chaotic pricing competition, emphasizing fair market practices [1][3] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The ten industries targeted for growth include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automotive, electrical equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [1] - Each industry has been assigned specific quantitative growth targets, such as a 5% annual increase in value added for the petrochemical and non-ferrous metals sectors from 2025 to 2026 [1][3] - The recent announcement of measures to regulate pricing competition indicates a systematic approach to governance, moving from recognition to execution at both central and local levels [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In August, profits of industrial enterprises showed a significant turnaround, increasing by 20.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023 [3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable in August, ending an eight-month decline, with a narrowing year-on-year drop of 0.7 percentage points [3][4] - Profit growth was particularly noted in upstream industries such as coal, steel, non-metallic minerals, and chemicals, suggesting a positive impact from the "involution" policies [3][4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs that align with the sectors benefiting from the "involution" policies, as these can provide efficient exposure to the relevant industries [5][6] - Specific ETFs are highlighted for sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, coal, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the anticipated benefits from the policy measures [6][7] - The ongoing "involution" policies are expected to enhance gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby improving the long-term investment value of related sectors [7]

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：真灼财经） 美股三大指数上周五急挫，道指跌878点或1.9%，标普500指数及纳指跌幅更分别达到2.7%及3.6%。反 映中概股表现之金龙指数亦急跌超过6%。 中港股市上周五同样下跌，A股方面，上综指及深成指分别下跌近1%及2.7%，不过全周计则上综指升 0.37%，深成指跌1.3%。至于港股连续第五个交易日下跌，当中上周五跌幅亦较显著，受科技股跌势拖 累，恒指最终收报26,290点，下跌462点或1.7%，科指跌幅则达到3.3%，收报6,259点。全周计则恒指及 科指分别累跌3.1%及5.5%。成份股中以中芯(00981.HK)表现最差，虽然周中一度创下93.5元新高，但周 四由升转跌后周五跌势加剧，最终一周累跌达到14.7%，另外阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及药明生物 (02269.HK)跌幅均超过一成，值得留意是药股上周跌势显著，中生制药(01177.HK)及药明康得 (02359.HK)跌幅亦超过7%。至于表现最好成份股则是获汇控(00005.HK)提出私有化之恒生(00011.HK)， 股价一周劲升逾26%，至于汇控则跌近6%。另外个别地产股亦有不俗表现，恒隆地产(00101 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% today, with a trading volume of 977.15 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,590.694 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.91% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The banking sector showed the smallest decline with a change of 0.02%, leading to a transaction value of 26.969 billion yuan, which is an increase of 5.62% from the previous day. The top-performing stock in this sector was Pudong Development Bank, which rose by 4.48% [1] - The automotive sector experienced the largest decline at 3.26%, with a transaction value of 81.481 billion yuan, down by 5.28% from the previous day. The leading stock in this sector was RY Electronics, which fell by 10.00% [2] - Other sectors with significant declines included electric power equipment (-2.71%), communication (-2.65%), and non-bank financials (-1.99%) [1][2] Notable Stocks - In the banking sector, Pudong Development Bank was the standout performer with a gain of 4.48% [1] - In the automotive sector, RY Electronics led the decline with a drop of 10.00% [2] - In the electric power equipment sector, Mingzhi Electric fell by 8.33% [2]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate have shown a marginal decline due to the holiday disruptions[2] - The apparent demand for steel has decreased, while the operating rate for polyester in textiles has increased[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have decreased, indicating seasonal fluctuations[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 28.7% year-on-year as of October 10, influenced by the holiday and base effects[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has dropped by 0.83% month-on-month as of September 29[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles increased by 6% year-on-year in September, while major home appliance retail sales fell by 6.7%[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 31.6%[2] - The total number of people moving across regions during the holiday reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 6.9%[2] - Export container freight rates have shown a decline of 6.7% week-on-week, although rates from Shanghai and Ningbo have increased since the end of September[2] Price Trends - The South China black raw materials index rose by 1.8%, while the futures price of rebar increased by 1%[2] - The futures price of coking coal rose by 3.1%, while the spot price in Shanxi fell by 1.1%[2]

Group 1: Autonomous Driving and Low Altitude Economy - The fourth Dubai World Autonomous Driving Congress highlighted that 25% of transportation in Dubai is expected to be automated by 2030, with a further increase to 36% by 2040 [2] - Chinese companies, including Pony.ai, WeRide, and Loong Air, are leading the autonomous driving sector in Dubai, providing testing autonomous taxis for the autonomous driving zone [2] - The DroneTech Dubai 2025 event showcased over 150 exhibitors from more than 40 countries, with the MENA region's low-altitude economy projected to grow to $22-26 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate exceeding 35% [2] Group 2: Aviation and Manufacturing Developments - COMAC (China Commercial Aircraft Corporation) will make its debut at the Dubai Airshow in November, indicating the importance of the Gulf region as a growth market for aircraft manufacturers [3] - China South Glass Group plans to invest 300 million dirhams to establish its first overseas smart manufacturing plant in Abu Dhabi, focusing on energy-efficient glass production with an expected annual output exceeding 5 million square meters [3] Group 3: Economic Policies and Business Growth - Dubai introduced the "Free Zone Mainland Operating Permit," allowing free zone companies to operate in the mainland, which is expected to boost cross-jurisdiction business growth by approximately 20% [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the UAE's corporate tax registration exceeded 640,000, facilitated by the EmaraTax digital platform, enhancing tax compliance and regulatory efficiency [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Performance - Dubai's real estate market reached a historic high in Q3 2025, with total sales nearing 500 billion dirhams, marking a 32.3% year-on-year increase in transaction value [5] - Ajman’s real estate sales surged by 53% in September 2025, reaching 2.97 billion dirhams (approximately $809 million), indicating strong market growth [5] Group 5: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Dubai's electricity and water authority, DEWA, is collaborating with several companies to establish a comprehensive electric vehicle charging network, planning to build over 1,500 green charging stations [6] Group 6: Qatar's Economic Indicators - Qatar's Hamad, Ruwais, and Doha ports reported a 12% increase in transshipment volume in September, with a total of 1.11 million TEUs processed from January to September [7] - Qatar's foreign exchange reserves grew by 3.08% year-on-year in September 2025, reaching 261.05 billion riyals, with official international reserves increasing by 3.73% [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation, with the price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to undergo short - term shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining - end news. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level shock, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics but showed obvious internal differentiation [3]. - The aluminum cable and wire production rate declined, but the orders from the power grid and photovoltaic sectors were still strong. The aluminum profile production rate decreased slightly, with the new orders for construction profiles being weak. The aluminum plate and strip production rate decreased to 68.0%, and the aluminum foil production rate decreased slightly [3]. - On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mining end, and the release of consumption [4].