Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - Key issues in cross-border M&A include policy compliance, financing costs, and transaction structures, which have become central topics for companies [1] Group 2: Event Information - An offline seminar hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will take place in Beijing on July 10, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:30 [2] - The agenda includes various thematic discussions, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and observations on recent outbound activities of Chinese enterprises [2] Group 3: Speakers and Expertise - Notable speakers include: - He Jia, Head of M&A at China Galaxy Securities, with 22 years of investment banking experience [4] - Liu Weiming, an economist and institutional investor known for his macroeconomic research [5] - Liu Chengwei, a partner at Global Law Firm, specializing in M&A and capital markets [6] - Feng Kai, Senior Investment Banking Data Manager at LSEG, with 16 years of experience in transaction data [7] - Ling Yufeng, Senior Client Learning Manager at LSEG, with expertise in financial information solutions [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a strong warning that the US dollar may begin a new round of decline following the release of the June non-farm payroll data on July 3 [1] - The dollar index has dropped 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance for the same period since 1973 [1] - A significant deterioration in the US job market could reinforce market expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, further driving the dollar index down [1] Group 2 - The easing of international geopolitical risks and the reduction of domestic fiscal policy noise are weakening the dollar's long-standing role as a safe-haven currency [1] - Even if the non-farm data is not as bad as expected, multiple factors could still lead to a gradual decline in the dollar index [1] - A weaker dollar is expected to positively impact emerging markets, supporting arbitrage trading strategies and potentially strengthening Asian currencies like the renminbi [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating the possibility of a cut in July if economic data supports it [3] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by the end of 2025, with Treasury Secretary Yellen suggesting cuts could occur as early as September [3] - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, also predict further declines in the dollar index due to rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [3][4]

| | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | | 350-375 | | 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 73.1% | | 2025/9/17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 64.9% | 12.9% | | 2025/10/29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 53.3% | 27.1% | 3.5% | | 2025/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - International investors are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, as evidenced by multiple foreign institutions hosting "China-themed" forums and raising GDP growth forecasts for China by 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 due to reduced external disturbances and enhanced domestic growth policies [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xie Ziqiang, predicts a fiscal package worth 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan to support urban renewal and infrastructure [2] - Nomura's chief economist for China, Lu Ting, has also raised GDP growth predictions for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected retail data supported by the "trade-in" policy [2] Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, believes that foreign capital will return to the Chinese stock market in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong's IPO market raising $9 billion so far this year, a 320% increase year-on-year [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [3] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target indices for major Chinese stock indices, reflecting ongoing structural improvements in the Chinese economy [3] Group 3: Earnings Performance - Morgan Stanley's chief Asia and China equity strategist, Liu Mingdi, noted that the MSCI China Index had a strong performance last year, with actual EPS growth reaching 16%, surpassing the initial expectation of 14% [4] - The market's consensus EPS growth expectation for the MSCI China Index this year is 8%, with leading internet companies continuing to perform well [4] - Liu Mingdi projects the MSCI China Index to reach 80 points under baseline and 89 points under optimistic scenarios this year [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Insights 1. Asia FX Volatility Strategies - Recommendations include selling USDCNH risk reversals, buying USDKRW puts, and selling USDTWD call spreads. [1][2] - Specific trades suggested: - Sell 6m USDCNH 25d RR at 0.25% and 1y USDCNH 25d RR at 0.55% [3][4] - Buy 3m USDKRW 1350 EKO at 33 bps [4] - Buy 3m USDSGD 1.24 digi put at 11.20% [4] - Sell 3m USDTWD 30.25/31.00 call spread for 46.3 bps [4] - Buy 1y 82 USDINR Digi Put at 9.2% [4] 2. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) - 30-year JGB yields have risen sharply, now above German bund yields, indicating a lack of demand for long-duration bonds [7][8][12]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal position are growing, with calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of elections [7][8]. - The market is expected to see increased ultra-long inventories, but foreign demand remains weak [9][11]. 3. China Trade Optimism - Recent headlines suggest that US-China trade optimism may have peaked [15][19]. - G7 countries are discussing tariffs on low-value goods from China, which could negatively impact trade [16][17]. - China's response to US restrictions on Huawei chips has intensified, indicating a tougher stance [18]. 4. Taiwan Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Implications - Taiwan's SWF aims to invest overseas to enhance government income and support national security and infrastructure [27]. - The SWF's launch is linked to Taiwan's involvement in the Alaska gas project, capped at 50% of an estimated US$44 billion investment [27]. - Potential funding sources for the SWF include government-issued bonds and fiscal surpluses [28]. 5. Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Movements - The HKMA has noted recent strengthening of the HKD and discussed liquidity injections following the LERS trigger [32][33]. - The HKMA emphasizes that lower yields are beneficial for the Hong Kong economy, with low chances of intervention unless the HKD hits 7.85 [33]. Additional Important Insights - The CFETS index has shown volatility, reflecting US-China trade talk optimism followed by declines [26]. - The PBoC may resist large RMB appreciation to protect exporter margins and employment [20][23]. - Taiwanese exporters have been asked to limit daily USD sales, indicating central bank intervention in the FX market [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and potential impacts on the respective markets.

高盛突然将美联储降息预期从12月提前至9月，这个看似简单的日期调整，实则暗藏玄机。作为深耕量 化领域多年的观察者，我注意到每次这样的重大预期调整，都会引发资本市场的连锁反应。但有趣的 是，当普通投资者还在争论降息幅度时，专业机构早已完成了战略布局。详细仔细讲 一，降息预期的蝴蝶效应 高盛这份报告像块石头砸进池塘，荡起的涟漪远比表面看到的复杂。当普通投资者还在争论"9月还是12 月降息"时，真正的老手早就开始翻检历史数据——2019年美联储转向宽松前夕，A股有47%的个股在政 策落地前三个月就走出独立行情。 但诡异的是，这些股票在启动前都呈现相似特征：日均换手率不足2%、波动率压缩至历史低位、甚至 财报季也毫无亮点。就像深夜便利店的值班员，明明货架在悄悄补货，却偏要装作打瞌睡的样子。 二、机构成本的暗箱游戏 这种行为模式在量化领域被称为"沙丁鱼策略"——就像罐头厂故意延迟捕捞让鱼群挤得更密，机构通过 反复震荡把浮动筹码清洗干净。等新闻出来时，他们手里攥着的已经是打折收购的带血筹码。 PS： 上文图中的橙色柱状，是我用系统观察的「机构交易特征」数据叫做「机构库存」。 如果「机构库存」数据越活跃，那就意味着参与交易 ...

消息人士：中金公司、中信和高盛正在筹划立讯精密在香港的股票发售。 ...

Core Insights - Recent data on U.S. tariff revenue has garnered significant attention, with annualized tariff revenue reaching an astonishing $327 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that regardless of whether the tax burden falls on producers or consumers, it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic growth [1] Tariff Revenue Trends - As of June 26, the U.S. customs net revenue reached $27.3 billion, reflecting a rapid increase in tariff revenue [1] - Tariff revenue has shown a clear upward trend, rising from $15.6 billion in April to $22.2 billion in May, and then to $27.3 billion in June [1] - The annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion is equivalent to 65% of the projected corporate income tax for 2024 and 32% of non-withheld personal income tax, indicating a substantial economic burden on individuals and businesses [1] Impact on Corporate Profitability - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, the profit margin for U.S. non-financial companies is projected to decline from 13.8% to 11.7%, which is below the 15-year average of 12.2% [2] - Even if companies pass some or all of the tariff costs onto consumers, the negative impact on profitability cannot be entirely mitigated [2] Economic Growth Concerns - The tariffs pose a threat to overall economic growth, with Morgan Stanley emphasizing that the substantial tax revenue will not contribute positively to economic expansion [4] - Other economic indicators, such as a mere 1.7% year-on-year growth in air passenger volume as of May, suggest a slowdown in consumer activity, further intensifying economic downward pressure [4] Investment Recommendations - Given the increased economic downside risks, Morgan Stanley maintains its investment advice, suggesting a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to potential further declines in interest rates [5] - The firm also recommends a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, anticipating a shift towards accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [5] - Investors are advised to monitor market movements around July 9 and consider increasing long positions in U.S. Treasuries, capitalizing on the rise in yields due to tariff news [5]

Group 1 - Cirsa, a Spanish gaming company controlled by Blackstone, has launched an IPO that has garnered significant attention in global capital markets, being considered one of the most notable IPOs in Spain for 2025 [1] - The IPO was officially opened to investors on July 3 and is set to close on July 7, with shares expected to be allocated on the same day and trading to commence on July 9 [1] - Cirsa aims for a valuation target of €2.52 billion (approximately $2.97 billion) with an expected issuance size between €453 million and €521 million [1] Group 2 - The IPO includes a greenshoe option, allowing for additional share issuance if market demand is strong, providing flexibility for Cirsa to expand its financing [6] - The offering also involves the transfer of shares from existing shareholders, indicating a proactive approach to capital structure adjustments by the company and its investors [6] - The underwriting syndicate consists of major financial institutions including BBVA, Jefferies, Mediobanca, Société Générale, and UBS, ensuring liquidity and strong participation from international investors [6] Group 3 - Cirsa is the largest casino operator in Spain and has expanded its operations into Italy, Morocco, and various Latin American markets, with recent expansions into Portugal and Puerto Rico [6] - The successful IPO of Cirsa is expected to boost market sentiment in Spain, which has not seen large IPOs for several months, potentially revitalizing the capital market [6] - The IPO is seen as a reflection of the recovering European capital market, positively influencing investor sentiment in the Eurozone [7]

Group 1 - The upcoming US June employment report is expected to be a critical turning point for the US dollar's trajectory, with potential implications for monetary policy expectations [1] - The foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with traditional macroeconomic data becoming the primary driver of currency fluctuations, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal policy disputes [1] - A decline in risk aversion has led to downward pressure on US short-term Treasury yields, further diminishing the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs views the June employment report as a "stress test" for the dollar's performance, with a significant miss in expectations likely to trigger concentrated selling of the dollar [2] - If the employment data meets expectations, the market is likely to continue the trend of "moderate dollar depreciation + benefits for risk assets" [2] - This shift in the foreign exchange market narrative is moving away from being driven by geopolitical and fiscal policy factors towards being dominated by traditional economic data [2]