然而，最新证据显示，关税对消费者价格的推动作用较为有限，且通胀放缓的整体趋势更为显著。报告 中提到："关税的影响似乎仅对物价水平产生一次性冲击，而非持续性通胀压力。"这一判断促使高盛重 新评估美联储的政策节奏。 除了关税因素，美联储内部的声音也为降息预期的提前提供了支持。一些美联储公开市场委员会 （FOMC）成员的近期表态显示，只要即将公布的通胀数据不出现大幅超预期上涨，他们对9月降息持 开放态度。特别是美联储理事鲍曼的言论进一步强化了这一可能性。她表示，即便通胀数据略显坚挺， 若主要由关税效应驱动，FOMC成员可能不会过于担忧。这种态度的转变为9月降息铺平了道路。 周三（7月2日）亚市盘中，黄金期货价格上涨，最新沪金价格报775.88元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日开盘于 780.80元/克，最高上探781.00元/克，最低触及775.02元/克。 【要闻速递】 高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius及其团队在最新报告中指出，美联储下一次降息的时间窗口可能提前至9月， 而非此前预计的12月。核心原因在于，他们认为特朗普政府推行的关税政策对通胀的冲击远没有预想中 剧烈。此前，高盛曾担忧夏季关税可能推高月度通胀数据，从 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs plans to increase its common stock dividend by 33% to $4.00 per share and has submitted the relevant documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [1] Company Summary - The proposed increase in the dividend reflects a significant commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The new dividend rate of $4.00 per share indicates a strong financial position and confidence in future earnings [1] Industry Summary - The move by Goldman Sachs may set a precedent for other financial institutions in the industry to consider similar dividend increases [1] - This action could signal a positive trend in the banking sector, particularly in terms of profitability and shareholder returns [1]

在经历了十多年来欧洲IPO上半年最慢的时期后，交易员们寄希望于今年晚些时候几笔大型交易能够重 燃市场。据彭博社汇编的数据，到2025年为止，该地区的IPO已筹集约55.2亿美元，较上年下降60%。 美国总统特朗普的关税引发的动荡导致市场冻结数周，虽然一些公司此后开始发行股票，但也有一些公 司推迟或取消了首次公开募股。 ...

收税来了，并且可能长期驻留 摩根士丹利表示，财政部数据显示，美国净关税收入呈现急剧上升趋势：4月份为156亿美元，5月份为222亿美元，6月份截至26日已达273亿美元。6月份数 据年化后达到3270亿美元，占一季度名义GDP年化值的1.1%。 美国进口关税已成为经济重负，关税影响达到"奇点"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在6月30日的报告中表示，美国关税收入已达到惊人规模，6月份年化关税收入达3270亿美元，相当于美国GDP的1.1%。 这一惊人数字对经济和企业构成多重压力，若企业完全吸收关税成本，利润率将从13.8%降至11.7%，低于15年移动平均线12.2%。若全部转嫁给消费者，将 加剧通胀压力。 从税收角度审视，6月份年化关税收入相当于：相当于企业所得税收入的65%；相当于个人预扣税/社保税收入的10%；相当于个人非预扣税收入的32%。 分析师警告，当投资者纠结于消费者还是生产者将承担更多关税、以及这何时会在企业财报或消费者通胀中显现时，他们忽略了一个更大、更重要的事实： 美国进口商已经开始支付大量关税，而且规模惊人。 如果企业完全承担关税成本，将对利润率造成显著冲击。非金融企业一季度税后利润为2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trend of wealthy individuals seeking new havens due to stable and favorable tax treatments, significantly impacting the competitiveness and attractiveness of various economies [2][3] - According to the "Global Private Wealth Migration Report," the number of millionaires in China has increased by 74% since 2014, ranking just below Montenegro, UAE, Malta, and the US in terms of growth [2][3] - The report indicates that after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, China's economic recovery, along with clear regulations and new incentives for domestic investment, has boosted the confidence of wealthy individuals in the country's future [3][4] Group 2 - Shenzhen and Hangzhou are identified as leading cities in China's rise as a technology powerhouse, attracting a growing number of millionaires due to rapid growth in finance, healthcare, and entertainment sectors [3] - The report anticipates a record 142,000 millionaires will migrate by 2025, with the UK expected to see the highest net outflow of high-net-worth individuals at 16,500 [5] - The UAE is projected to maintain its status as a top destination for wealth, with an expected net inflow of 9,800 millionaires this year, attributed to its "Golden Visa," zero income tax, and stable political environment [5]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase on July 1, with the main Shanghai gold price at 776.10 CNY per gram, up 1.47%, and the main Shanghai silver price at 8810.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.11% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3347.70 USD per ounce, up 0.99%, and COMEX silver at 36.48 USD per ounce, up 0.40% [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for the main Shanghai gold and silver futures were 766.18 CNY per gram and 8737.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 776.64 CNY per gram and 8810.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3315.70 USD per ounce, with a peak of 3351.80 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver opened at 36.33 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 36.77 USD per ounce [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September instead of December, citing that the impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be less than expected [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the next two meetings remains low, despite market expectations for a rate cut in July rising from 8% to 20% and in September from 60% to 90% [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold prices increased by 0.88% to 3315.00 USD per ounce, with the CME "FedWatch" indicating a 79.8% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July and a 20.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September is at 5.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75.9% and a 50 basis point cut is 18.8% [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3302.59 per ounce, reaching a high of $3332.09, and a low of $3301.07, with a current price of $3332.09, reflecting a 0.77% increase [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting cuts in September instead of December, citing that the impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be less than anticipated [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, adjusting the terminal rate forecast from 3.5%-3.25% to 3-3.25% [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is slightly above 50%, with several potential paths identified, including lower-than-expected tariff effects and labor market weakness [3] - The current resistance level for gold prices is identified at $3360-$3370, while support is noted at $3227-$3237 [3]

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View - The US faces a large - scale debt problem, with about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds to be sold in the next year, which may lead to a "fiscal heart attack." The passage of a related bill is uncertain and has raised concerns [1] - There are different views on the valuation of US stocks. Goldman Sachs believes it is too high, while others think US stocks are supported by solid balance sheets, and European trading is more speculative [1] - Neuralink has the potential to revolutionize human - machine interaction, with the ultimate goal of achieving a full - brain interface and transforming the human brain into a "biological + digital" brain [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and there are ongoing institutional applications [1] - A New York mayoral candidate advocates for a more equitable city by taxing the top 1% of the wealthy to fund public services [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - The US needs to sell about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds in the next year, including $1 trillion for interest payments, $9 trillion for debt repayment, and an additional $2 trillion due to a $2 trillion deficit [1] - The passage of a bill with a large - scale debt is uncertain, and some senators oppose it [1] - Different views on US and European stock markets: Goldman Sachs thinks US stock valuation is too high, while others believe US stocks have solid balance sheets, and European trading depends on infrastructure plans [1] - Neuralink can enable humans to control Tesla Optimus robots with thoughts, and its ultimate goal is a full - brain interface [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and institutions are applying for related services [1] - A New York mayoral candidate wants to tax the top 1% to fund public services [1] Global Economic Logic - The US President claims to have reached a trade agreement with China, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising [1] - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI final value is 52.0, indicating continued expansion. China's June PMI production index continues to expand, and the new order index resumes expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 0. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion boosts European manufacturing [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1]