今日早参 2025 年 7 月 18 日 谢春生 电子与计算机首席研究员 座机：021-29872036 邮箱：xiechunsheng@htsc.com 谢春生 电子与计算机首席研究员 座机：021-29872036 邮箱：xiechunsheng@htsc.com 今日热点 科技/计算机：Token 推动计算 Compute 需求：非线性增长 推理和 Token 调用量之间不是线性关系：从 Agentic AI 底层来看，推理过程 的倍数项包含 Agent 数和迭代次数，多 Agent 协作和多工具调用带来 Token 消耗量倍数增长。Token 的增长与算力硬件需求之间也不是线性关系：据黄 仁勋在 3 月份的 GTC 大会中所述，"Token 量增长 10 倍，所需的算力量的增 长可能增长 100 倍"。这是因为推理过程变得更加复杂，在同样的算力条件 下，计算的时间也将增长，如果要求模型具备交互性与实时性，则需要将计 算速度提升 10 倍。我们认为，Agentic AI 将带来 Token 调用量 10 倍以上增 长，从而带来算力需求 100 倍以上提升。目前市场对于算力需求有较大的预 期差，未来算力需 ...

Core Insights - The rise of the "single economy" in China is driven by a significant increase in single-person households, which now account for 25% of families, up from 8% in 2000, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards services like dining and entertainment [1][2][9] Group 1: Demographic Changes - The proportion of single-person households in China has surged from 8% in 2000 to 25.4% in 2020, with the average family size decreasing from 4.41 in 1982 to 2.62 in 2020 [2][6] - The percentage of individuals aged 25-29 living alone has increased from 5.0% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2020, while the highest rate of single living is among those aged 65 and above, at 15.7% [5][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Single-person households are more willing to spend on services, particularly in dining, leisure, and entertainment sectors, reflecting a fundamental change in consumption habits [9] - The "loneliness economy" is characterized by various forms of loneliness experienced by 21% and 24% of the population, leading to new investment opportunities [10] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - **Sports Industry**: The sports sector is growing rapidly, contributing 1.15% to GDP in 2023, with the number of sports facilities expected to rise from 3.2 million in 2018 to 4.9 million by 2024 [12][21] - **Non-Gambling Entertainment in Macau**: The demand for live performances has surged, with ticket sales for live theater increasing by over 30% in the past decade, and Macau hosting over 2,000 large-scale music events in 2023 [24][27] - **Solo Travel**: Solo travelers make up 62.3% of frequent travelers, with a notable trend among women preferring solo trips, indicating a shift in travel preferences [28][32] - **Virtual Emotional Connections**: The decline in marriage rates and the rise of romantic narrative games reflect changing dynamics in intimate relationships, with games like "Love and Deep Space" generating significant revenue shortly after launch [36][39]

今年上半年，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，服务消费增势较好，消费活力不断释放，消费对经济增长 的拉动作用进一步增强。数据显示，上半年，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元，同比增长5%。上半 年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52%。 提振消费是当前宏观政策的重要着力点，是应对内外部冲击、促进高质量发展的关键举措。业内专家认 为，上半年，我国消费市场在一系列扩内需、促消费政策带动下趋于活跃，发展态势向好，这意味着下 半年消费发展是有支撑的。 "下一步，提振消费的政策还需继续加力、优化升级。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任 董希淼在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，近期，中国人民银行等部门出台金融支持提振消费等政策 措施，引导更多金融资源助力提振和扩大消费，预计下一阶段居民消费意愿和能力将进一步提高，巩固 消费市场回升向好的态势。 "扫货"账单里的换挡提速 上半年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5%，其中，二季度增长5.4%，比一季度加快0.8个百分点，逐季 提升，稳稳撑起经济增长的"半壁江山"。 如果把消费拆开来看，会发现一条清晰的升级曲线——服务消费"跑得"比商品消费更快。上半年，服务 零售额同比增长5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of Shenyang International Pump Track Park has created a new recreational hub for cycling enthusiasts, providing facilities for various wheeled sports and fostering local talent in competitive cycling [2][3]. Group 1: Park Features and Facilities - Shenyang International Pump Track Park covers an area of 45,800 square meters and includes 9 tracks suitable for different skill levels, catering to skateboarding, rollerblading, and cycling [2]. - The park has become a popular destination, with over 1,000 visitors on peak days, attracting not only local residents but also enthusiasts from other regions [3]. Group 2: Training and Development - Young athletes like 11-year-old Xie Youning have benefited from the park, training regularly and improving their skills, with Xie participating in competitions and achieving notable success [3]. - The park has hosted 15 various international and domestic events over the past two years, enhancing its reputation as a competitive venue [3]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The park operates on a free-entry basis, encouraging community participation and making it a new landmark for leisure sports in Shenyang [3]. - Local cycling enthusiasts have formed teams for training and competition, fostering a sense of community and collaboration among riders [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guo Yuan Jin K Cup" third village BA township basketball invitational tournament successfully concluded in Lucheng Town, showcasing local talent and promoting community engagement through sports [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The tournament was organized by the Danyang Sports Association and Lucheng Town Government, featuring 13 teams from 12 townships in Changzhou and Danyang [1]. - The event lasted for 23 days, starting on June 24, culminating in the finals on July 16 [1][2]. Group 2: Competition Results - Changzhou Xixiapu Huijiang Coating Team won the championship, while Lucheng Huafa Team secured the runner-up position, and Lucheng Kangle Team took third place [1][2]. - In the third-place match, Lucheng Kangle Team defeated Changzhou Xuebu Chunhui Team with a score of 46:33 [1]. - The championship match saw Changzhou Xixiapu Huijiang Coating Team triumph over Lucheng Huafa Team with a final score of 66:62 [2]. Group 3: Community Impact - The tournament not only provided a competitive platform but also facilitated cultural exchange and learning among participating teams [2]. - Lucheng Town, known as the "Hometown of Basketball," aims to promote the sport further in the region through this annual event [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation of measures to boost consumption in Jiangsu Province, highlighting the positive trends in the consumer market and the government's efforts to stimulate demand through various policies and initiatives [2][3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Market Performance - In the first half of the year, Jiangsu Province achieved a total retail sales of consumer goods of 23,949 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with the province's retail sales accounting for 9.8% of the national total, marking the highest growth in both total and net increase across the country [2]. - The government has introduced 62 specific measures aimed at releasing consumption potential and expanding effective demand, focusing on increasing income and reducing burdens to enhance consumer capacity [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Consumer Incentives - Over 25.98 million people benefited from subsidy programs in the first half of the year, with a total of 17.377 billion yuan in subsidies used, driving over 142.805 billion yuan in major consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances [3]. - The government is promoting new business models and consumption scenarios, such as integrating sports events with tourism and entertainment to stimulate consumer spending [4]. Group 3: Cultural and Sports Events Impact - The "Su Chao" sports events have led to cross-regional consumer spending, with 91.7 million participants in 103 monitored events generating 2.07 billion yuan in consumption [4]. - The government plans to introduce a comprehensive set of policies to further support the development of event-driven economies and enhance consumer confidence [4]. Group 4: Future Initiatives and Financial Support - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism is launching the "Su Travel Loan" financial product to support the tourism industry, with an allocation of 50 million yuan aimed at providing at least 5 billion yuan in financing for cultural tourism projects [6]. - The province is focusing on developing water sports and outdoor activities to meet the growing demand for high-quality lifestyle experiences [6]. Group 5: Consumer Protection and Dispute Resolution - The Jiangsu Provincial Market Supervision Administration is innovating in consumer dispute resolution, encouraging large enterprises to establish effective systems and exploring new online resolution mechanisms [7]. - The administration aims to enhance consumer confidence by promoting a unified and convenient return and exchange service across different stores [7].

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|如何定位"市场化反内卷"？》 1、我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧 重于成本调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的 供给格局配合，我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个 方面讨论哪些行业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和 存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，以上述三个指标是否发 生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出 清的行业。2、我们筛选出两类受益方向：第一类走困境反转逻辑，行业 "反内卷"需求较为迫切，处在周期底部，出清拐点初步显现且具有较好 的出清弹性，属于"反内卷"较为核心的赛道。典型行业为光伏设备、通 用设备。以光伏为例，行业库存与开支周期向下，去库效果初显，营收增 速出现环比改善，但毛利率和现金流的改善仍未出现，困境反转后向上空 间较大。第二类走率先出清、盈利改善的右侧逻辑，内卷程度已经得到一 定改善，行业业绩能见度较高。典型为家电、化学原料等。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验有局限性；2）地缘风险 ...

Core Insights - Consumption is identified as a fundamental driver of economic growth and a means to better meet the needs of people's lives, with ongoing expansion in consumption scale and market vitality in China [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends and Innovations - The investigation team observed a diverse development of grassroots consumption in rural areas, exemplified by a village in Fuzhou, Fujian, which integrates agriculture, tourism, and education to enhance local economic activity [2] - In Xiamen, Meitu Company is leveraging artificial intelligence to simplify the creation of images and videos, indicating a shift towards tech-driven consumer products [3] - The cross-border e-commerce public service center in Shishi City is facilitating small and medium enterprises in Fujian to expand their international sales, showcasing a new model of "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" [5] Group 2: Urban Renewal and Employment - Urban renewal projects in Quanzhou, such as the "Ancient City Cultural Revival Plan," are enhancing the integration of historical culture with modern living, reflecting a consumer-centric approach to urban development [2] - Anta Group has transformed from a traditional private enterprise to a modern company with over 65,000 employees, emphasizing the importance of employment as a source of consumption [4] - The Jia Geng Innovation Laboratory at Xiamen University is supporting over 80 technology and industrialization projects, contributing to the quality upgrade of durable consumer goods [6] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Future Directions - The investigation team proposed that Fujian should explore policies focused on "investing in people" to enhance public spending efficiency in the social sector [7] - Emphasis was placed on utilizing urban renewal as a tool to improve living conditions and stimulate demand, which is crucial for addressing consumption challenges [7] - Recommendations included increasing financial support for new consumption types and considering the use of consumption vouchers to enhance consumer sentiment and capability [7]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Province has launched its first batch of cultural, sports, and tourism consumption incentive projects for 2025, with a total funding of 11.76 million yuan allocated to 25 projects, covering various sectors such as concerts, cultural performances, and new tourism formats [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the integration of cultural and tourism sectors, fostering growth in consumer demand and expanding the local economy [1][8] - The funding is designed to be easily accessible, encouraging market confidence and promoting innovative cross-sector collaborations [1][8] Group 1: Project Highlights - The Global Dinosaur City Lantern Festival at the Dino Water Town attracted 1.413 million visitors and generated over 30 million yuan in sales, earning a financial reward of 500,000 yuan due to exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2] - The "Dance in Jiang Hai" event in Nantong attracted 60,000 visitors and generated nearly 4 million yuan in sales, resulting in a 200,000 yuan financial reward for the Nantong Square Dance Association [2] - The 2025 Wuxi Marathon set a record with 429,000 registrations and generated over 500 million yuan in economic benefits, receiving a financial reward of 960,000 yuan [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The financial rewards are aimed at enhancing the quality and scale of events, creating unique city-specific IPs, and stimulating regional consumption [3] - The policy encourages collaboration between government and enterprises, optimizing service delivery and maximizing the effectiveness of public resources [4][8] - The initiative includes performance indicators such as the proportion of out-of-province visitors and consumption effects, promoting deeper integration of culture, sports, tourism, and commerce [8] Group 3: Future Directions - The Jiangsu government plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies to enhance consumer project development and improve the consumption environment [8] - Ongoing tracking of policy effectiveness will focus on consumption data, visitor flow, and industry impact rates to refine funding allocation [8] - Collaboration among various departments will be essential to create a favorable consumption and business environment, driving quality improvements in the cultural and tourism sectors [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - Digital technology is a crucial engine driving the transformation of social production methods, economic structures, and lifestyles, leading sports from traditional forms to digital and intelligent directions [1][2] - The application of digital technology in sports ceremonies enhances audience experience through immersive and interactive spaces, as demonstrated by events like the Qatar World Cup and Hangzhou Asian Games [1][3] - The current state of digital sports in China is still exploratory, with a need to innovate large-scale sports events in terms of performance, communication, and experience to expand their influence [2][5] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Large sports events serve as a platform for showcasing technological advancements, with digital technologies providing rich resources and enhancing viewer engagement through high-definition visuals and virtual reality [3][4] - Future sports ceremonies should deepen the application of digital technologies to create multi-dimensional interactive spaces, as seen in the Beijing Winter Olympics with AI rendering and VR experiences [3][4] Group 3: Public Participation and Cultural Identity - The integration of digital technology in sports ceremonies fosters emotional connections and cultural identity, bridging traditional and modern elements [4][5] - Broad public participation is essential for the success of digital sports ceremonies, necessitating a multi-faceted communication strategy that combines traditional and new media [5][6] Group 4: Government Regulation - The rapid development of digital sports ceremonies is accompanied by challenges such as data breaches and algorithmic biases, highlighting the need for robust government regulation [6][7] - A comprehensive governance framework involving technology, law, and ethics is necessary to ensure the safe application of digital technologies in sports [7][8] Group 5: Digital Transformation - The digital transformation of sports ceremonies represents a shift from collective physical performances to a system of meaning production that intertwines virtual and real experiences [7][8] - This transformation is characterized by a dynamic interplay of technological empowerment, cultural recognition, and institutional restructuring, which can enhance emotional resonance and shared values in global sports [8]