Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in fund issuance, with 37 new funds launched this week, marking a 48% increase from the previous week, the highest in nearly seven weeks [1] - Mixed funds are the primary focus of this week's fundraising, with 18 mixed funds launched, accounting for 48.65% of the total, while 13 stock funds and 6 bond funds were also launched [1] - The increase in fund issuance is attributed to favorable policies and improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in investor risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Index funds are gaining popularity among investors due to their clear style and transparent operation, becoming an important choice for asset allocation [2] - The current A-share index has rebounded to levels seen before the escalation of US-China trade tensions, but further gains require new catalysts to boost market confidence [2] - June is seen as a window period for increased market risk appetite due to the easing of trade tensions and the implementation of domestic macro policies, with a focus on dividend-related sectors and consumer stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The supply side of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market is still in a bottoming phase, with both inventory and capacity remaining weak, but there are signs of marginal recovery on the demand side [1][3][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by weak replenishment and expansion intentions, with inventory growth for Q1 2025 at -1.63% year-on-year and stock growth at -4.46%, both showing declines compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for Q1 2025 is at 2.32, down 0.04 from 2024, marking 12 consecutive quarters of decline since mid-2022 [3]. - Expansionary capital expenditure for Q1 2025 has a year-on-year decline of 20.69%, the first negative value since 2018, indicating weak investment intentions among listed companies [3]. Industry Focus - Key industries to focus on include those with relatively tight supply and good profitability, those that have shown signs of recovery from the bottom, and those still on the left side of the turning point but entering the later stages of clearing [1][10]. - Specific industries identified for potential support to performance include metal products, broiler farming, entertainment products, and gaming, with only the entertainment products sector showing high levels of expansionary capital expenditure [1][70]. Detailed Industry Breakdown Cyclical Sector - Industries with tight supply include those with high capacity utilization and low inventory, indicating potential for profitability improvement [12]. - Industries at the bottom include construction materials, chemicals, and photovoltaic power, which are experiencing supply structure optimization [12][25]. Manufacturing Sector - Tight supply industries include cable components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, and metal products, with low expansionary capital expenditure [26][40]. - Bottomed industries include the new energy chain and military electronics, which are likely to face hard constraints on future production capacity [26][37]. Consumer Sector - Tight supply industries include broiler farming and entertainment products, with the latter showing high expansionary capital expenditure [41][54]. - Bottomed industries include pharmaceuticals and food processing, with signs of marginal improvement in capacity utilization and profitability [41][49]. TMT Sector - Tight supply industries include gaming, with low expansionary capital expenditure, indicating hard constraints on future supply [55][69]. - Industries at the bottom include electronic components and security equipment, with potential for recovery in capacity utilization and profitability [55][63].

轻工制造 GLO 日本试销推进，新型烟草趋势向上 投资要点： 【周观点】5 月 12 日日本 GLO 官网公布新品 HILO 信息，新品预期将于 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县试销限定发售，若日本市场试销良好，产品力进一 步验证，思摩尔 HNB 业务成长空间有望进一步打开；本周中美贸易冲突暂 缓，优质低估出口链、以及前期受外销业务担忧的包装龙头迎来布局窗口； 出口情绪好转带动包装纸企涨价潮，玖龙、山鹰、理文等集体发布提价函。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/20 7/31 10/11 12/22 3/4 5/15 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 华福证券 轻工制 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two industry categories are highlighted: "supply clearance" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion[2] - Industries exhibiting "supply clearance" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services[2] - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports[2] Export Chain Analysis - Key export chain industries with high overseas revenue proportions include other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery[3] - Industries with high revenue exposure to the U.S. face uncertainty until trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products and textiles if tariffs ease[3] High Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yield sectors identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods[4] - Notable increases in dividend yields for transportation and consumer sectors compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods[4] Market Strategy and Outlook - The A-share market shows resilience, with ETF net outflows indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet maintaining a steady upward trend with transaction volumes above 1 trillion[5] - The market is at a turning point, with key factors to monitor including U.S.-China trade talks and domestic economic indicators[5] - A broad fluctuation is expected in the A-share market, with strong support likely at lower levels, suggesting potential for increased positions if support levels are tested[5] Investment Recommendations - Balanced asset allocation is advised to navigate uncertainties, with a focus on technology sectors potentially regaining momentum[6] - Transitioning trading strategies from exceeding expectations to focusing on high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, and animal health[6] - Defensive assets like banks, insurance, and utilities remain viable as core holdings, with attention to sectors with rising dividend yields[6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to recover growth in 2024, with new growth momentum gradually forming. Key products like folding tents and car awnings have stabilized, and major clients are resuming orders. The current star product, the starry sky pavilion, continues to grow and is replacing traditional wooden structures, leading to a leading market share [2][3] - The company is implementing a "1+N" product extension strategy based on its core product, the starry sky pavilion, continuously upgrading its product matrix to include barbecue pavilions, metal garages, and outdoor garden rooms, thus creating a comprehensive outdoor living solution [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast due to uncertainties in the macro consumption environment and increased expenses from overseas business expansion. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.8 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.4 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71, 0.96, and 1.29 [4] Financial Data Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 0.5 billion, a 42% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.04 billion, a 91% increase [1] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.2 billion, a 13% increase, while the net profit is expected to be -0.14 billion [1][5] - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 1.1 billion in 2023 to 2.9 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 31.5% [5][10]

Group 1 - The core products of Zhaoli Pharmaceutical show stable growth, with a high dividend payout ratio maintained, achieving a revenue of 2.578 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.71% [8][9] - The company has significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency, with a notable decrease in expense ratios, including a sales expense ratio of 32.53%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company plans to implement an employee stock ownership plan by the end of 2024, with profit growth targets set at no less than 30% for 2025 [10] Group 2 - Weining Health's revenue for Q1 2025 was 345 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.24%, with a net profit of 5.29 million yuan, down 68.18% [11][12] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 120.53% year-on-year [12] - The WiNEX product is entering a phase of mass delivery, supporting internet operations and international adaptation, with a strong digital architecture capable of handling millions of transactions [14][15] Group 3 - Lais Information's revenue for 2024 was 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.94%, while Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 55.53% to 109 million yuan [17][18] - The company is optimizing its business structure, with significant growth in air traffic control and urban traffic management sectors, achieving revenue increases of 13.68% and 33.47% respectively [18][19] - The company is enhancing its research and development efforts, with a focus on refining its product offerings and improving operational efficiency [20] Group 4 - FenJung Media reported a revenue of 12.262 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, with a net profit of 5.155 billion yuan, up 6.80% [23][25] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 4.766 billion yuan, representing 92.45% of net profit [24][25] - The planned acquisition of New潮传媒 is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the outdoor advertising market [28] Group 5 - Jingwang Electronics achieved a revenue of 12.659 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, with a net profit of 1.169 billion yuan, up 24.86% [30][31] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on high-end markets and AI applications, particularly in the automotive sector [32][33] - The company is increasing its R&D investments to support technological advancements and market expansion [33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous ratings [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million, a decrease of 1% [1]. - For 2024, the projected revenue is 11.4 billion, representing a 3% increase, but the net profit is expected to decline by 18% to 60 million [1]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and enhancing customer service, particularly in B2B administrative office supplies, MRO industrial products, marketing materials, and employee benefits [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was approximately 11.1 billion, with a growth rate of 28.62%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 11.4 billion, with a growth rate of 2.69% [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 76.91 million, with a significant decline of 39.29% expected in 2024 to 62.82 million [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.11, projected to decrease to 0.09 in 2024, before recovering to 0.14 in 2025 [5][12]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to concentrate on core customers, including state-owned enterprises and Fortune 500 companies, while also exploring procurement opportunities with private enterprises [2]. - It is developing high-value administrative office operation solutions and focusing on MRO solutions, alongside digital union welfare solutions and marketing material solutions [2]. - The company is enhancing its self-operated e-commerce capabilities and diversifying its product offerings through collaborations with quality IP partners [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous ratings [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million, a decrease of 1% [1]. - For 2024, the projected revenue is 11.4 billion, representing a 3% increase, but the net profit is expected to decline by 18% to 60 million [1]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and enhancing customer service, particularly in B2B administrative office supplies, MRO industrial products, marketing materials, and employee benefits [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 was approximately 11.1 billion, with a growth rate of 28.62%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 11.4 billion, with a growth rate of 2.69% [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 76.91 million, with a significant decline of 39.29% expected in 2024 to 62.82 million [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.11, projected to decrease to 0.09 in 2024, before recovering to 0.14 in 2025 [5][12]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to concentrate on core customers, including state-owned enterprises and Fortune 500 companies, while also exploring procurement opportunities with private enterprises [2]. - It is developing high-value administrative office operation solutions and enhancing its digital capabilities to support B2B e-commerce procurement [2]. - The company is also focusing on brand partnerships and product innovation to improve its market position in the stationery sector [3].