Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][15][19]. Core Insights - The company is a well-known operator of Chinese casual dining restaurants, focusing on cost-effectiveness and high-quality dining experiences. As of May 2025, it operates 493 stores across Hong Kong and various cities in mainland China [4][12][17]. - The company’s mature stores maintain healthy operations, with projected sales for 2024 expected to exceed 10 million yuan per store. The increase in takeaway orders is anticipated to help same-store sales recover [4][12][17]. - The company has recently experimented with smaller restaurant formats, which have higher table turnover rates and lower operating costs, leading to a reduced payback period of 14-15 months for new stores. With effective incentive mechanisms in place, the company is expected to accelerate its store expansion [4][12][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started from Hangzhou West Lake and has expanded nationwide, opening its first restaurant in 2008. By May 2025, it has established a network of 493 restaurants across various city tiers in China [23]. - The main business model is direct-operated restaurants with a focus on fusion cuisine priced between 50-70 yuan, achieving a competitive edge through high cost-performance [25][26]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese restaurant market is projected to reach 5.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2019 to 2024. The casual dining segment is the fastest-growing within the Chinese restaurant market, with a CAGR of 5.6% [49][53]. - The chain restaurant penetration rate in China has increased to 23.3% in 2024, up 4.2 percentage points from 2019, indicating a gradual shift towards more standardized and scalable restaurant operations [55]. Competitive Advantages - The company boasts strong menu development capabilities, with its founder leading product innovation. The average annual sales for mature stores remain above 10 million yuan, and the investment payback period for new stores has decreased due to smaller, more efficient formats [14][19]. - The company has implemented a profit-sharing mechanism to align employee interests with operational quality and expansion goals, enhancing its competitive position [14][19]. Growth Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 46.8 billion yuan in 2025, 59.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 75.0 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 25.9%, and 27.3% respectively [15][19]. - The company plans to open 131, 176, and 183 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supported by a favorable market environment and improved operational efficiencies [18][19].

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 电商"投流税"重锤落地，海南将于年底全岛封关运作 [Table_Title2] 海外周报 [Table_Summary] 核心结论: ► 史上最严税规来袭，电商"投流税"重锤落地。 一场针对电商税务漏洞的监管风暴正在席卷全国，从佛山 1.23 亿销售零申报被查，到青岛即墨区商户 5679 万收入仅 申报 32 万被定性偷税，税务稽查的利剑已精准刺向电商经营 的核心地带。 近期，国家市场监管总局与税务总局连续出台多项重磅政 策，标志着电商行业迎来最强监管时代。其中，《〈中华人 民共和国广告法〉适用问题执法指南（一）》的发布，将企 业投流费用明确定性为广告费和业务宣传费，彻底改变了电 商营销成本的税务处理规则。 根据规定，自 2025 年 10 月 1 日起，企业发生的投流费用税 前扣除额度不得超过年度营业收入的 15%，超出的部分将按 规定计征企业所得税。这意味着，那些依赖巨额流量投入驱 动的电商商业模式将面临前所未有的税务成本重构。 与此同时，《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的全面实 施，要求 ...

Core Insights - The "2024 Commercial Franchise TOP 300" list was released by the China Chain Store & Franchise Association (CCFA), showcasing the annual development trends in the franchise sector [1] - The list includes 300 companies across 25 sub-sectors, with a total of 830,000 stores, reflecting a 30.73% increase from the previous year's 630,000 stores [1] - The distribution of sectors shows that the restaurant industry remains stable at 33.67%, retail slightly decreased to 40.00%, and the service industry increased to 26.33% [1] Industry Overview - The 2024 TOP 300 includes 101 restaurant companies, 120 retail companies, and 79 service companies, indicating a slight adjustment in consumer demand structure [1] - The number of franchise brands with over 10,000 stores increased from 9 in 2023 to 18 in 2024, highlighting the growing influence of leading brands in the market [1] - A total of 71 new franchise brands were added to the list, with 34 in the restaurant sector, 26 in services, and 11 in retail, demonstrating the sector's ongoing attractiveness [1] Event Insights - The 65th China Franchise Exhibition will be held from August 8-10 in Shanghai, focusing on the analysis of the TOP 300 list and featuring over 100 quality brands from various sectors [2] - The exhibition will include forums and workshops aimed at exploring growth strategies and promoting sustainable development in the franchise industry [2] - The CCFA Franchise Committee, established in 2015, has grown to include 69 member companies, advocating for the interests of various franchise sectors and promoting industry self-regulation [2]

研究报告 Research Report 28 Jul 2025 小菜园 Xiaocaiyuan International (999 HK) 首次覆盖：大众便民中式餐饮领导者，长期成长空间广阔 [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$9.83 目标价 HK$13.50 HTI ESG 4.3-4.5-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$11.57bn / US$1.47bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$4.53mn 发行股票数目 1,177mn 自由流通股 (%) 9% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$12.46-HK$7.94 注：现价 HK$9.83 为 2025 年 07 月 25 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 2.8% 10.5% 绝对值（美元） 2.8% 9.3% 相对 MSCI China -2.4% -2.7% [Table_Profit] ...

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week[11] - A total of 34 companies conducted buybacks this week, down from 43 companies last week[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740.86 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 29.95 million HKD[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, primarily driven by HSBC's significant repurchase[14] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 7 firms participating[14] - The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors followed, each with 6 companies conducting buybacks[14] Group 3: Individual Company Buyback Data - Australia New Oriental Education (1752.HK) had the highest buyback ratio at 12.19% of its total shares[15] - IGG (0799.HK) and Xinyi International (0732.HK) had buyback ratios of 0.21% and 0.22%, respectively[15] - The buyback amounts for other notable companies included 1.73 million HKD for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) and 1.37 million HKD for Vitasoy International (0345.HK)[15] Group 4: Significance of Buybacks - Buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, often signaling that the stock is undervalued[22] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, indicating companies' confidence in their stock's intrinsic value[22] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five buyback waves since 2008, all coinciding with subsequent market recoveries[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][5][37]. Core Viewpoints - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 items (21%) to 6,600 items (74%), which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hainan for businesses and tourists [14][15]. - The investment in the Yajiang Hydropower project, totaling 1.2 trillion CNY, is anticipated to stimulate regional economic activity and support various industries such as education, tourism, and logistics [16][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector will benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential recovery in valuations [3][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The consumer services sector outperformed the market with a 4.41% increase, surpassing the benchmark by 1.61 percentage points during the reporting period [23][26]. - Key stocks in the consumer services sector included Tibet Tourism, Lansheng Co., and Oriental Selection, which saw significant gains [26][27]. Company Dynamics - Dou Shen Education launched an AI-based writing and reading system, while JD.com introduced a "Dish Partner" program to innovate traditional restaurant franchising [29][30]. - Sally's net profit reached a record high for the quarter, driven by a low-price strategy that increased customer traffic [31]. - The official direct sales platform for civil aviation was launched by Hanglv Zongheng, integrating resources from 37 airlines [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Atour, China Oriental Education, and Meituan, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][37]. - Mid-term selections include China Duty Free Group, Meituan, and Huazhu Group, indicating a diverse range of investment options across the sector [3][37]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies, with a focus on maintaining an "Outperform the Market" rating for firms like Mixue Group and Atour [4][37].

近三个月，新兴服务业市场蓬勃发展、已进入多平台良性竞争的新阶段。 7月28日，淘宝闪购和饿了么联合宣布，连续两个周末日订单超过9000万（不含0元购及自提）。虽然连 续两周国内大范围强降雨，但消费热情不减，淘宝闪购的订单准时率稳定在96%。 淘宝闪购自5月上线以来，日订单屡创新高，从1000万、4000万、6000万到连续两周峰值超8000万，再 到连续两个周末超9000万。社会消费热情被持续点燃，商家生意也持续增长、收入显著提升。 最新数据显示，近一个月来，淘宝闪购上140万商家日均订单数和实收均显著增长。 尤其在中西部省份市场，一些区域连锁企业表现突出，不仅收入提升、还有效地扩大了市场。如成都茶 饮品牌"陈多多"，不少门店的订单和利润均增长翻番，其在金堂县等县域地区、泸州等三四线城市的部 分门店，月销可达近万单，收益不输大城市门店。合肥本土知名连锁品牌"联家超市"，旗下有十几家门 店入驻淘宝闪购，今年5月以来，新用户持续增加，近一个月其店均收入增长近3万元；以水果生鲜为主 的区域超市"润宜佳"，在淘宝闪购上线后订单持续突破峰值，7月以来，下单用户数环比近乎翻倍增 长，其中新用户占比高达60%，店均收入增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][5][36]. Core Viewpoints - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 items (21%) to 6,600 items (74%), which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hainan for businesses and tourists [1][14]. - The investment of 1.2 trillion CNY in the Yajiang hydropower project is anticipated to stimulate regional economic cycles and boost related industries such as education, business travel, catering, and tourism [1][16][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector is likely to benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential valuation recovery [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, rising by 4.41% during the reporting period, exceeding the market benchmark by 1.61 percentage points [22][25]. - The report highlights various industry dynamics, including the launch of AI educational products by Dou Shen Education and JD's new "Dish Partner" initiative, which aims to disrupt traditional restaurant franchising [28][29]. Company Performance Predictions - Key companies such as Mijia Group, Atour, and Ctrip are rated as "Outperform the Market," with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E and 2026E showing positive growth [4][36]. - The report includes a detailed table of investment ratings and financial metrics for various companies in the sector, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Atour, China Oriental Education, and Meituan, among others, as they are expected to perform well in the current economic environment [3][36]. - Mid-term selections include China Duty Free Group, Meituan, and Huazhu Group, reflecting a diversified investment strategy across the social services sector [3][36].

Group 1: Summer Economic Trends - The end of the college entrance examination marks the beginning of a diverse and expansive summer consumption market, driven by students and their families [1] - The summer economy is characterized by various consumption patterns, including self-improvement, beauty investments, and skill acquisition [1] Group 2: Graduation Celebrations - The tradition of graduation banquets has evolved into a significant consumption phenomenon, supported by a growing number of high school graduates [2][4] - The banquet market shows a clear segmentation, with high-end customized options in first-tier cities and more affordable traditional options in lower-tier cities [2][4] - The rise of graduation banquets reflects the societal recognition of educational success and the desire for social status among families [2][5] Group 3: Travel Trends - The graduation travel market has seen a surge, with related searches increasing threefold and bookings up 137% year-on-year [6] - Young travelers are favoring longer and themed trips, with a preference for cultural cities and group travel [6][8] - The introduction of visa-free policies has further stimulated outbound travel, with a significant increase in hotel bookings for popular destinations [8] Group 4: Indoor Skiing - The popularity of indoor skiing has risen, particularly in southern regions, as it offers a unique experience regardless of the season [9][11] - Businesses are responding with tailored packages for students, creating a comprehensive service chain that enhances family participation [11] Group 5: Arts Education - The summer period has become a peak time for arts training, driven by a growing emphasis on quality education [12][15] - Families are increasingly viewing arts education as a necessary investment, leading to a diverse range of offerings in the market [12][15] Group 6: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics market is projected to grow significantly, with a notable increase in student consumers during the summer months [16][18] - Parental support plays a crucial role in driving this consumption trend, reflecting a shift in attitudes towards cosmetic procedures [18] Group 7: Driving Licenses - The demand for driving licenses peaks during the summer, with a significant portion of annual registrations occurring in July and August [19][21] - Driving schools are adapting by offering discounts and flexible training options to attract students [21] Group 8: Vision Correction Surgery - The summer is a popular time for vision correction surgeries, driven by the need for clear vision for certain academic programs [22][24] - The market is characterized by a strong demand for quality procedures, with various options available at different price points [24] Group 9: Live Events - The summer concert and festival market is experiencing substantial growth, with ticket sales and related consumption on the rise [25][30] - The events not only drive direct ticket sales but also boost local economies through increased travel and hospitality spending [27][30] Group 10: Overall Economic Impact - The rise of the summer economy is attributed to fixed holiday periods and the increasing influence of younger consumers [31] - As Generation Z becomes the main consumer force, the summer economy is expected to evolve towards more personalized and quality-driven experiences [31]

环球市场动态 对 美 出 口 修 复 助 力 内 地 工 企 利 润 改 善 股 票 周五A股下跌，但科创板尾盘拉升； 港股三大指数齐跌超 1%，惟南下 资金大幅流入；欧洲股市普遍收跌， 投资者继续等待美欧贸易谈判进 展；美股周五收涨，部分企业乐观 财报和贸易协议提振市场情绪。 外 汇 / 商 品 石油市场面临供应过剩风险，上周 五国际油价下跌超 1%；市场憧憬 美美国与大部分地区有望达成贸易 协议，美元指数连续第二天反弹， 黄金延续跌势。 固 定 收 益 美国国债收益率走高，美国经济数 据相对稳健，特朗普与鲍威尔同行 淡化美联储解雇疑虑。亚洲市场月 末资金流动偏向卖盘，利差走阔 1- 2 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 7 月 28 日 123 ▪ 内地 6 月工业企业利润增速有所回升，结构上主要是国有企业、外资企业和中游行业利润增速回暖。"量" 的提 高和 "利润率" 边际改善是 6 月工业企业利润好转的主要拉动因素，两者或主要源于 6 月对美国出口增速的回 升，5 月 12 日中美日内瓦谈判后，对美出 ...