Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

进一步完善技能人才薪酬分配制度，增强政策与产业发展实际的适配性，在平衡人才和企业利益的基础上提高技 能人才待遇水平，让技能人才发展更有"奔头" 通过税收优惠、融资支持、政策奖励、资金补助等方式，对建立完善技能导向的薪酬分配制度的中小微企业，加 大支持和激励 业内人士表示，各地已出台一些针对高收入技能人才的税收优惠政策，但可操作性有待加强。比如，一些政策表 述为"对个人所得税实际税负超过15%的部分，给予一定比例奖励"。但各负责落实的归口单位对"一定比例"的理 解不同，政策落地效果与预想有差距。 文 |《瞭望》新闻周刊记者 技能人才是支撑中国制造、中国创造的重要力量。近年来，我国技能导向的薪酬分配制度正在建立。 《瞭望》新闻周刊记者近日采访发现，我国技能导向的薪酬分配制度面临增技增收有落差、制度落地有困难等现 实问题。受访业内人士建议，进一步完善技能人才薪酬分配制度，增强政策与产业发展实际的适配性，在平衡人 才和企业利益的基础上提高技能人才待遇水平，让技能人才发展更有奔头。 增技增收存落差 记者采访了解到，在构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度的过程中，一些地方仍存在制度落实精准度不足、政策延续性 不强等问题。 一方面， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic soybean harvest is nearing completion with quality differentiation, and prices are stabilizing. High soybean imports continue, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Oil mill operating rates are rising, and soybean meal inventories are gradually decreasing. Demand remains strong. The soybean No.1 contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will oscillate and adjust. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No.2601 contract oscillated and rebounded. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4000 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the futures price shifted from a discount to a premium. - The soybean meal 01 contract stopped falling after oscillation, rebounding after hitting a low of 2863. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the 43 - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 2900 yuan/ton to around 2870 yuan/ton. The basis oscillated, and the futures price maintained a slight premium [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - As of October 17, the domestic soybean harvest was more than half - completed, showing variety differentiation. The remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang rose to 90%, in Anhui to 70%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 70%. The soybean harvest in Heilongjiang was almost finished, with good quality, while in North China and other regions, continuous rain led to poor quality [4]. Import Situation - In September, domestic soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Sino - US negotiations may take place at the end of this month, with soybeans being one of the three major demands. The market expects China to purchase US soybeans to ease the situation. However, domestic imports are mainly from South America, and as the cost of Brazilian soybeans rises, purchases have slowed down. As of October 17, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.21 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline, and port soybean inventories were 9.884 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline, remaining at a high level in recent years [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are oscillating at a low level. The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. Currently, the US soybean harvest may be more than half - completed, but US soybean farmers have nowhere to sell their soybeans due to the government shutdown and受阻 aid. Sino - US negotiation expectations are boosting US soybeans [5]. Oil Mill Situation - As of October 17, the operating rate of oil mills was 59.59%, a significant increase. The soybean crushing volume was 2.166 million tons, returning to a high level. Oil mill soybean inventories reached 7.687 million tons, hitting a new high in recent years. Soybean meal production was 1.711 million tons, a significant increase. Oil mill soybean meal inventories were 976,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline, and the unexecuted soybean meal contracts were 5.007 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans has declined [5]. Feed Demand Situation - In the livestock farming sector, pig prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but farming is still in significant losses. As of October 17, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, with losses widening. Leading pig enterprises are also facing losses. Policy regulation is insufficient and has a lagging effect. Although the production capacity has been adjusted downward to some extent, the decline is not large, and the pig inventory is still growing due to inertia. - In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded and then fell again. Laying hen farming is back in the red, and the culling rate is insufficient. The inventory in September continued to grow and remained at a historical high. Feed demand is strong. As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory days of feed mills were 7.93 days, continuing to decline [6].

Group 1 - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to reduced foreign capital inflow into A-shares as the attractiveness of the dollar remains high [3] - The geopolitical conflicts, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent Israel-Palestine tensions, are impacting A-share industries, especially those reliant on energy and agricultural commodities [4] - Domestic and external demand pressures are evident, with commodity markets showing signs of weakness and trade protectionism affecting export-oriented sectors, particularly electronics and light industry [5] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing a critical week, with the potential for continued volatility depending on the persistence of these three major negative factors and the response of policies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the main line may enter rotation, and the index opened higher and fluctuated. In the bond market, the bond futures weakened. The precious metals market showed an upward trend despite the easing of geopolitical and trade frictions. Different commodities in the commodity futures market also have their own characteristics, such as copper prices oscillating due to social inventory accumulation during the peak season, and alumina prices continuing to be under pressure due to supply - side pressure and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market opened higher and fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures all rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts oscillated narrowly. The China - US trade friction is in the mutual exploration stage. The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short term, but the index is expected to fall first and then rebound, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at a low price or try to sell put options at the support level [2][3][4] - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net repurchase of funds was conducted on October 20. The overall economic situation shows that the pressure to achieve the annual economic target is not significant, and the necessity of policy strengthening has decreased. The key factors affecting the bond market in the short term are risk preference, the implementation of the new fund redemption fee regulations, and the progress of the China - US trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the TL contract [5][6][7] Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose synchronously with risk assets. The US economic operation and employment market are affected by government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The Fed's policy interest - rate cut path may strengthen the expectation of continuous easing and depress the US dollar credit. Geopolitical and other risk events are frequent, and investors may increase the allocation of precious metals. In the short term, before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, there are uncertainties in Trump's internal and external and tariff policies and the China - US trade negotiation process. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. For silver, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the London inter - bank lending and leasing rates, and it is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations [8][9][10] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot quotes of container shipping to Europe show different ranges. The futures price of the main contract rose on the previous day. The current spot price is expected to gradually increase, which will drive the futures price to rise. It is expected that the short - term market will show a strong - side oscillating pattern. It is recommended to buy the main EC contract below 1600 [12][13] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The social inventory of copper increased during the peak season, and the copper price oscillated. The macro factors such as the potential US bank "thunderstorm" and the China - US tariff negotiation deadline need to be concerned. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the production of refined copper in October is expected to decline. The high copper price has a certain inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand has strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 84000 - 85000 for the main contract [13][14][18] - **Alumina**: The alumina market continued its weak pattern, and the futures price continued to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The high - cost enterprises may reduce production to relieve the operation pressure. It is expected that the short - term spot price will continue to be under pressure, and the reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [18][20][21] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price maintained a high - level oscillating pattern, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively light. The macro situation is mixed, and the fundamentals show that the supply is stable, the demand has the resilience of the peak season, and the inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [21][22][23] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed an interval oscillating trend. The cost support is obvious, the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, the demand shows a mild recovery, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a strong - side oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [23][25][26] - **Zinc**: The zinc price oscillated. The supply is relatively loose, but the increase in production in the second half of the year may be limited. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the overseas inventory is low. The expected interest - rate cuts support the zinc price. The short - term price may be driven by macro factors, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. It is recommended that the main contract refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 [26][27][29] - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated at a high level. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the demand is weak. The traditional consumer electronics and home appliance markets have weak demand, while the AI and photovoltaic industries drive partial consumption. It is expected that the short - term macro - level fluctuations will increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the buying points caused by the decline in macro sentiment [30][32][33] - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general. The overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. It is expected that the price will oscillate within the range of 120000 - 126000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33][35][36] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price maintained a weak pattern. The macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are rising, the cost of nickel ore has support, but the price of nickel iron is weakening, and the peak - season demand is not significantly boosted. It is expected that the short - term price will be weakly adjusted, and the reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 [37][38][39] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. The supply increased during the peak season, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory continued to decline. The Pilbara Minerals will hold a lithium concentrate auction, and the demand - supply gap is expected to expand in October. It is expected that the short - term price will be strong, and the reference range for the main contract is 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [41][42][43] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel was stable. The cost of carbon elements has support, and the cost of iron elements may decline. The supply of iron elements increased in the first nine months, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The domestic demand is expected to be weak, but there is a policy support expectation in the fourth quarter, and the export is at a high level. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the plate inventory needs to be reduced through production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the carbon - iron arbitrage [44][45][47] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures continued to oscillate weakly. The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand from steel mills is weakening, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected that the iron ore price will be weak due to the weak steel price. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling iron ore [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated upward. The domestic coking coal market rebounded after a slight decline, and the downstream procurement increased. The supply of domestic mines increased after the holiday, and the supply of imported Mongolian coal was tight. The demand from iron and steel enterprises was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at a low price in the short term and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [52][53][54] - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated upward. The second - round price increase of coke is waiting to be implemented. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the coking industry's production decreased due to losses. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory is moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at a low price and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [55][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of domestic soybean meal in the spot market rose steadily on October 20, and the price of rapeseed meal also increased. The demand expectation of US soybeans has improved, but the Chinese procurement is still zero. The new US soybeans have a high excellent - rate, and the Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still high. It is expected that the spot price will be difficult to improve this year, but the downward space is limited. The M2601 contract has support at around 2900, and the 1 - 5 positive spread may have opportunities [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded slightly. The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the second - fattening boosts the pig price. In the long term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and hold the LH3 - 7 reverse spread [62][63]

Core Viewpoint - The visit of the Cambodian delegation to Nanjing Agricultural University Sanya Research Institute resulted in the signing of a memorandum for the establishment of a joint soybean laboratory, indicating a commitment to enhance agricultural cooperation between China and Cambodia [1] Group 1: Agreement and Cooperation - The signed agreement focuses on the construction of an agricultural technology demonstration park and a joint soybean laboratory, aiming to deepen collaboration in areas such as joint research, quality testing, and technical support [1] - The Cambodian side is actively negotiating with Chinese authorities to facilitate the entry of more high-quality agricultural products into the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Delegation Activities - During the visit, the delegation toured various agricultural facilities, including the soybean horticultural crop germplasm innovation center and several agricultural industry parks, to understand China's agricultural industrialization and technological innovation achievements [1]

历经20多年发展，目前同舟集团已成为集棉花收购加工、棉纺织品生产、进出口贸易于一体的国际化企 业集团。公司设立了专门的期货市场研发和投资部，培养了一批精通现货、期货、套期保值业务的专业 人才，为公司期现结合的经营模式奠定了坚实的基础。对人才培养的长期投入，为"同舟杯"的创设积累 了丰富的实践经验和储备资源。 以赛育人 以赛选人 编者按：第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛暨第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛（简称实盘大 赛）已于9月26日圆满结束。在本届比赛中，新设置的"同舟杯"专项奖受到了广泛关注。该奖项聚焦棉 花、花生和红枣等特色农产品，有效地提升了市场参与度，同时有助于进一步挖掘期货服务产业的典型 案例和模式。即日起，本报推出"实盘大赛'同舟杯'专项奖系列报道"，敬请关注。 在今年的实盘大赛中，河南同舟国际贸易集团有限公司（简称同舟集团）专门开设了"同舟杯"专项奖， 即"同舟杯"全国棉花、花生、红枣期货（期权）交易大赛，以独特的"以赛育人、以赛选人"模式，为期 货市场人才培育与产业应用搭建起桥梁。 同舟集团总裁黄红雨告诉期货日报记者，作为国内棉花种植、皮棉加工和贸易等领域的头部企业，同舟 集团棉花、棉纱年经 ...

Core Insights - The 12th China International Agricultural Products Trade Fair showcased the vibrant development of rural industries in China, highlighting local specialties and the growth of agricultural processing enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Processing - In 2024, China's grain production is expected to reach 1.4 trillion jin, an increase of 74 billion jin compared to 2020 [2]. - The number of large-scale agricultural processing enterprises is projected to exceed 100,000, with total revenue around 18 trillion yuan [1][2]. - Over 94,000 leading enterprises at the county level are primarily engaged in agricultural processing, with more than 80% of them focused on this sector [3]. Group 2: Rural Development and New Industries - Various regions are developing unique local industries, such as Yunnan coffee and Yan'an apples, which are driving the growth of rural e-commerce and leisure industries [4]. - The income from leisure agriculture is expected to approach 900 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of nearly 50 billion yuan since 2020 [4]. Group 3: Poverty Alleviation and Income Growth - The transition period for consolidating poverty alleviation results and rural revitalization is crucial, with 832 poverty-stricken counties cultivating 2 to 3 leading industries, generating a total output value exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [5]. - The per capita disposable income of rural residents is projected to reach 23,119 yuan in 2024, indicating a gradual narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural residents [5]. Group 4: Agricultural Modernization and Reforms - The trade fair highlighted advanced agricultural equipment, such as multifunctional robots in orchards, showcasing the new productive forces in agriculture [7]. - Ongoing rural reforms, including the extension of land contracts and the management of rural homesteads, are providing strong momentum for the development of rural industries [7].

Group 1 - The article highlights the successful implementation of digital tax services in Shaanxi, focusing on the "Xi Tax Cloud" live Q&A sessions that address common taxpayer concerns regarding electronic invoicing and tax policies [1] - The live Q&A sessions have attracted significant participation, with over 1,011 viewers and 252 interactions, indicating a strong interest in tax-related issues among businesses [1] - Shaanxi tax authorities have launched the "Shaanxi Tax Protection · Benefit Enterprises" brand, introducing 10 service measures aimed at improving taxpayer satisfaction and facilitating online tax services [2] Group 2 - The "Silver-Tax Interaction" program has provided quick financing solutions for small enterprises, exemplified by a cooperative that received a 1 million yuan loan within 48 hours, enabling them to upgrade equipment and increase production capacity by 70% [2][3] - In the first seven months of the year, Shaanxi tax authorities assisted 175,300 enterprises in securing bank loans totaling 138.068 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of the tax credit evaluation and financing support mechanisms [3] - The article emphasizes the role of small and micro enterprises in driving economic growth and innovation, with tax authorities actively enhancing the tax service quality and business environment to support high-quality economic development [4] Group 3 - The article describes the transformation of a cold-water fish industry park in Shaanxi, which has benefited from tax incentives and personalized guidance from tax authorities, resulting in significant tax reductions and business growth [4][5] - The successful development of high-value products like caviar and fish paste by local enterprises demonstrates the positive impact of tax policies on industry advancement and market expansion [5] - Shaanxi tax authorities plan to continue reforming tax administration and improving the business environment to support the growth of small and micro enterprises, contributing to the province's economic development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The focus on domestic economic circulation has intensified due to the impact of US-China trade tensions and the global pandemic, leading to a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic production, consumption, and circulation to stabilize the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Contributions - From 2020 to 2025, domestic demand has contributed an average of 86.4% to economic growth, with consumer spending accounting for 56.2% of this contribution, indicating a significant shift towards internal circulation [2][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales rising by 7.7%, demonstrating the effectiveness of policies promoting domestic consumption [6]. Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector is positioned as a key beneficiary of the domestic circulation strategy, with the government promoting local production to ensure food security and reduce reliance on imports [8][12]. - By 2024, the planting area for soybeans is expected to expand to 12 million acres, increasing the self-sufficiency rate from 15% to 16%, reflecting a focus on enhancing domestic agricultural capabilities [8][12]. - The income of farmers has increased by over 7% due to the shift towards domestic sales, supported by government subsidies for agricultural machinery [8][12]. Group 3: Digital Economy and Self-Media - The self-media sector has seen explosive growth, with short video users exceeding 1 billion in 2023 and advertising revenue projected to reach hundreds of billions by 2024, driven by increased domestic consumption [10][12]. - The government's regulations on foreign content have encouraged the production of local cultural content, leading to a 30% increase in viewership for domestic animations in 2022 [10][12]. Group 4: Retail Industry - The retail industry has emerged as a direct winner from the domestic circulation strategy, with online retail sales reaching 11 trillion yuan in 2020 and accounting for over 25% of total consumption by 2023 [12][14]. - The government has implemented measures such as consumption vouchers and trade-in programs, which are expected to drive sales by 1.1 trillion yuan in 2025 [12][14]. - The retail sector is enhancing supply chain efficiency through digitalization, contributing to a growth rate exceeding 4% in 2024 [12][14]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - By 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with domestic demand contributing over 80% to economic growth [14]. - The interconnection of agriculture, self-media, and retail sectors is crucial for stimulating demand and ensuring stable economic development, benefiting both consumers and businesses [14].