证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 增持|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.59 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）45.26 / 45.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）434 / 432 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.04 / 8.24 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.0% | | 市盈率 | 106.56 | | 第一大股东 | 南方希望实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 新希望(000876) 降本增效成果显著，破除困局 ⚫ 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，其中 24 年全年实现营 业收入 1030.63 亿元，同比下降 27.27%，归母净利 4.74 亿元，同比 增长 90.05%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业总收入 244.17 亿元，同 比增长 2.13%，归母净利润 4.45 亿，同比扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 点评：降本增效成果显著，饲料及生猪业 ...

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 增持|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.59 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）45.26 / 45.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）434 / 432 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.04 / 8.24 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.0% | | 市盈率 | 106.56 | | 第一大股东 | 南方希望实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 新希望(000876) 降本增效成果显著，破除困局 ⚫ 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，其中 24 年全年实现营 业收入 1030.63 亿元，同比下降 27.27%，归母净利 4.74 亿元，同比 增长 90.05%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业总收入 244.17 亿元，同 比增长 2.13%，归母净利润 4.45 亿，同比扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 点评：降本增效成果显著，饲料及生猪业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The agricultural industry achieved a revenue of CNY 11,498.20 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 466.39 billion, an increase of 806.55% [6][17] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of CNY 2,706.77 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, with a net profit of CNY 133.13 billion, up 795.07% [6][17] - The overall profitability of the industry improved significantly in Q1 2025, with gross profit margin at 12.91%, net profit margin at 5.16%, and return on equity (ROE) at 2.57%, all showing year-on-year increases [21][30] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the agricultural industry saw a slight decline in revenue but a substantial increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite lower sales [17] - The profitability metrics for Q1 2025 showed significant improvements compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease in the expense ratio [21] Sub-industry Analysis - The livestock sector experienced a remarkable increase in net profit, with pig farming turning profitable in 2024 and continuing strong performance into 2025 [6][29] - The poultry farming sector also showed strong growth, with net profit increasing significantly due to reduced feed costs and improved efficiency [43][44] - The pet food sector maintained high growth rates, with revenues and profits continuing to rise [6][25] Livestock Farming - In 2024, pig farming companies generated CNY 4,370.03 billion in revenue, a slight decline, but net profit surged to CNY 320.13 billion, reflecting a recovery in profitability [29] - In Q1 2025, revenues for pig farming increased by 18.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 236.12% [29][30] Poultry Farming - Poultry farming companies achieved a revenue of CNY 520.71 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 28.49 billion, marking a significant increase [43] - In Q1 2025, revenue continued to grow, reaching CNY 118.71 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 4.51 billion [43][44] Feed Industry - The feed industry reported a revenue of CNY 1,863.30 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 52.48 billion, showing a significant recovery in profitability [58] - In Q1 2025, revenues rose to CNY 428.66 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 15.26 billion [58][61] Animal Health - The animal health sector saw a revenue of CNY 129.02 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 10.82 billion, despite a decline in profitability [66] - In Q1 2025, revenues increased to CNY 30.96 billion, with net profit rising to CNY 4.26 billion [66]

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - Total assets at the end of 2024 were CNY 5.41 billion, a decrease of 9.58% from the beginning of the year [3] - Total liabilities were CNY 3.81 billion, down 14.08% from the start of the year [3] - Owner's equity reached CNY 1.60 billion, with equity attributable to shareholders at CNY 1.51 billion, an increase of 2.28% [3] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of 2024 was 70.37%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [3] - Revenue for 2024 was CNY 4.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.91% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 30.16 million, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [3] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - Feed business achieved sales volume of 880,800 tons (excluding internal sales of 262,800 tons), a year-on-year increase of 29.51% [3] - Sales revenue from feed was CNY 2.77 billion, up 6.54%, with a profit of CNY 65 million [3] - Swine farming saw a total output of 1.20 million heads (including 671,500 market pigs, 489,000 piglets, and 40,500 breeding pigs), a growth of 14.73% [3] - Revenue from swine farming was CNY 1.65 billion, a 44.12% increase, with a profit of CNY 199 million [3] Group 3: 2025 Strategic Goals - The company aims for revenue exceeding CNY 5.5 billion in 2025, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [4] - Key initiatives include expanding swine output and feed sales volume, targeting 110,000 to 130,000 heads for swine output [4] - The target cost for market pigs in Q1 2025 is CNY 14.15 per kg, with a goal to reduce it to CNY 13 per kg [4] - The company plans to lower the asset-liability ratio to 69% in 2025 through operational cash flow and depreciation exceeding CNY 300 million annually [5] Group 4: Future Development and Operations - The company currently has approximately 73,000 breeding sows and plans to adjust based on market conditions [5] - The swine production capacity is estimated to reach around 2.2 million heads, with a utilization rate below 70% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to enhance the direct sales model for feed, aiming for a 70% share [5] - Capital expenditure for 2025 is budgeted at around CNY 50 million, primarily for environmental upgrades at pig farms [5]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：001313 证券简称：粤海饲料 公告编号：2025-035 广东粤海饲料集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 注：本次质押股份不存在涉及负担重大资产重组等业绩补偿义务的情形。 （二）股东股份累计质押基本情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： ■ 二、其他说明 截至公告披露日，对虾公司所持有的股份除存在质押情形外，不存在平仓或被强制过户风险，未发生股 份被冻结、拍卖或设定信托的情况，股份质押风险在可控范围内。 公司将持续关注相关质押情况及质押风险情况，严格遵守相关规定，及时履行信息披露义务。 三、备查文件 一、股东股份质押基本情况 广东粤海饲料集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到控股股东湛江市对虾饲料有限公司（以下 简称"对虾公司"）通知，获悉其所持有公司部分股份被质押，具体事项如下： （一）本次股份质押基本情况 ■ （一）中国证券登记结算有限责任公司证券质押及司法冻结明细表。 特此公告。 广东粤海饲料集团 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing high growth in performance, with significant profitability in Q1 2025 despite a downward price trend starting in Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The overall financial health of the industry is improving, with a notable reduction in the asset-liability ratio and strong operating cash flow [1][24]. - The supply of pigs is expected to rebound in the short term, while medium-term capacity continues to decline, indicating a cautious approach to long-term asset investment by pig farming companies [1][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming: Performance Improvement and Continuous Operations - The pig farming industry maintained high profitability, with a total revenue increase of 2.53% year-on-year in 2024, and a significant recovery in net profit to 30.68 billion yuan [1][13]. - Operating cash flow for 14 listed pig farming companies reached a historical high of 74.77 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing to show strong performance at 13.29 billion yuan [24][30]. - Inventory levels for listed pig farming companies increased to approximately 96.89 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.03% year-on-year growth [31]. 2. Post-Cycle: Recovery in Pig Farming and Beneficiaries - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with animal health revenue reaching 17.56 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.06% [43]. - The feed sector's revenue in 2024 was 261.65 billion yuan, down 8.31% year-on-year, but profitability improved significantly with a net profit of 7.84 billion yuan [43]. 3. Poultry: Stable Revenue and Profitability - The poultry farming sector reported a revenue of 72.91 billion yuan in 2024, with a remarkable year-on-year increase in net profit to 2.95 billion yuan [67]. - The fixed assets of four major white-feathered chicken companies reached 20.33 billion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating a slowdown in long-term asset growth [68].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [17] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large variances due to cost differences, leading to a stronger performance from leading companies [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural adjustment with varying profitability across different types of chickens, indicating a potential bottoming out in the white chicken segment [22][26] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biotechnological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and continuous performance from leading companies [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for most A-share pig companies were between 14.5-15.5 yuan/kg, down from 16-17 yuan/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Leading companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with Shennong achieving around 300-350 yuan per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with dividend payout ratios of 49.6% for Tiankang and 42.4% for Muyuan [19] Poultry Sector - The profitability of white chickens is narrowing, with major companies reporting significant declines in net profits [22] - The supply of parent stock is at a five-year low, indicating a potential for price increases as demand recovers [26] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng [25][26] Seed Industry - The seed sector's net profit dropped by 37.6% in Q1 2025 due to oversupply, with leading companies showing varied performance [29] - High R&D investment continues, with a focus on biotechnological advancements expected to enhance competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with significant increases in net profits for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong [32] - The demand for senior pet care products is rising, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted for its market share growth and improving financial performance, with Q1 revenues up by 10.6% [34] - The aquaculture feed market is expected to improve due to rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies like Huisheng showing over 50% growth [35] - Investment focus is on new product lines and the potential for pet health products to capture market share [35][36]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 2,706.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, and a net profit of 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% year-on-year [4][14] - The profitability indicators showed improvement, with the gross profit margin at 12.91% in Q1 2025, up 5.74 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin at 5.16%, an increase of 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [4][18] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The livestock sector saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with poultry farming, livestock farming, feed, and pet food sectors showing net profit increases of 1,109.96%, 389.01%, 230.88%, and 75.67% respectively in 2024 [5][20] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth rates for feed, poultry farming, livestock farming, aquaculture, animal health, and pet food sectors were 962.42%, 588.35%, 254.62%, 117.28%, and 21.27% respectively [5][20] Weekly Perspective - The swine sector shows low-positioning value, with the recovery of profitability and consumer demand boosting the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][24] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with recommended stocks including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Petty Co. [6][26] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] - The feed sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with individual stocks like Ruip Biotech, New Sai Co., and Daodaoquan leading the market [7][32] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat rose by 0.11 yuan/kg to 19.2 yuan/kg [8][37] - The average price of beef increased to 69.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.74% rise [8][43] - The average price of bass rose to 35.30 yuan/kg, up 3.82% from the previous week [8][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]