Market Overview - On December 18, A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% at 3857.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 13112.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.17% at 3138.66 points [1] - Key sectors such as CPO, tax refunds for outbound travelers, and fiberglass saw significant declines [1] - Notable stocks included Baida Group, which opened up 4.49%, and Shengtong Energy, which reached a limit up after a change in control [1] Company News - SpaceX has entered a "regulatory quiet period," signaling the initiation of the largest IPO in history [2] - Vanke A proposed a 12-month extension for the principal repayment of its medium-term notes, with a total outstanding amount of 3.7 billion yuan [2] - CATL launched the world's first humanoid robot production line for battery PACKs, marking a significant milestone in intelligent manufacturing [2] - China CNR signed several major contracts totaling approximately 53.31 billion yuan, representing 21.6% of its projected 2024 revenue [3] - Huayi Brothers reported a reduction in shareholding by Alibaba's venture capital arm, decreasing its stake from 3.47% to 2.40% [3] Industry Insights - The global optical module market is experiencing a rapid shift from copper cables to fiber optics, with 1.6T products expected to see significant growth starting in 2026 [6] - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau plans to revoke 27 mining licenses, including one for Jiangte Electric's lithium-containing ceramic stone mine with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons [7] - Travel bookings for the upcoming New Year holiday have increased by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year, indicating a recovery in the tourism sector [8] - A successful clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface was completed, allowing a paralyzed patient to control a smart wheelchair using brain signals [9] - The upcoming FORCE conference by Volcano Engine is expected to introduce new AI models, enhancing performance and reducing costs [10] - The fifth International AIDC Liquid Cooling Supply Chain Summit will discuss the growing importance of liquid cooling technology in data centers due to rising AI server demands [11] - The founder of Hailin Energy predicts that global electricity demand will surge by 2050, emphasizing the critical role of energy storage in addressing energy challenges [12][13] Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Securities highlights structural opportunities in the express delivery sector, focusing on cost reduction across the entire supply chain [14] - CICC notes that the food and beverage industry is nearing a bottom, with a focus on high-quality growth driven by product innovation and channel expansion [15] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the recent approval of L3 autonomous driving vehicles will accelerate value reconstruction in the smart driving industry, with significant investment opportunities emerging in 2026 [16]

Group 1 - The Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has conducted joint interviews with several internet platforms regarding the dissemination of negative information about the Beijing real estate market, including false listings and panic-inducing content, requiring platforms to promptly remove such information and address non-compliant accounts [1] - Bloomberg reported that the tightening of real estate conditions in 70 major cities continues to attract the attention of policymakers, who are considering measures such as home purchase subsidies and tax rebates [1] - Policymakers have committed to encouraging the purchase of existing homes to reduce excessive inventory levels [1] Group 2 - According to CRIC Real Estate Research, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities increased by 14% month-on-month in November, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3% [3] - In four major cities, Beijing saw a month-on-month increase of 9% in second-hand home transactions, while Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou experienced a decline in new second-hand home listings [3]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 华泰证券固收研究 核心观点 今年以来，海外宏观事件驱动交易的特性明显，对国内市场的辐射和联动也有所增强。而辐射范围来 看，开始从之前的以经济驱动为主导，转变为经济、地缘、AI产业趋势、全球流动性等多个渠道。总 体而言，海外对国内映射的四条主线仍需要在明年密切关注，外需影响盈利预期，AI链仍贡献热点， 地缘风险有所降低，海外流动性和人民币升值对国内资产影响偏正面。本周配置建议方面，虽然美联储 FOMC会议释放鸽派信号，但"做多AI科技+做多工业金属+做空美元"的共识交易高度集中，甲骨文信用 债利差扩大等再次引发AI泡沫化担忧，市场波动放大。国内股债跷跷板效应短期弱化，年底阶段盈 利、叙事、资金面青黄不接，短期股指向下有支撑但向上空间不清晰；债市遇利好不涨反跌，机构行为 和供求失衡担忧是关键。 核心主题：海外对国内市场映射的四个路径 今年即使在关税的影响下，我国出口增速仍维持高位，展现出较强的韧性。明年海外财政扩张，叠加制 造业周期回暖，外需对国内经济仍有支撑。微观视角下，国内企业积极拓展海外市场，有望打造第二增 长曲线，具备技术优势的头部 ...

投资的科学面：均值回归是绕不开的铁律 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析投资的运气骗局，拆解背后不为人知的硬核逻辑。 不少人觉得投资全靠运气，有人靠一只股票翻倍，有人却栽得血本无归。但往深了挖才发现，那些看似 幸运的成功，背后都藏着一套严密的逻辑。 经济学的"理性人"假设虽不完美，却揭示了投资的底层规律。投资从来不是瞎蒙，它既有科学的必然， 也有艺术的弹性，看懂这一点，才能避开大多数坑。 投资的科学成分，核心就是均值回归的必然性，说白了就是涨久必跌，跌久必涨。这不是随口说说的玄 学，而是经过市场长期验证的规律。 就像去年火遍全网的某新能源龙头股，2023年一路飙升翻了三倍，不少人追高入场，觉得会一直涨。结 果2024年上半年直接腰斩，套牢了大批散户。 证券日报11月底报道过一则案例，某基金经理坚持均值回归逻辑，在这只股估值高位时果断减仓，转而 布局低估的消费板块。虽然短期业绩不如同行，但到了2024年下半年，消费板块回暖，他的基金业绩直 接冲进同类前10%。 还有A股市场的白酒板块，过去十几年里经历过多次涨跌循环，每次下跌后总会有反弹，每次暴涨后也 难免回调。这就是均值回归的力量，不管市场情绪多狂热或 ...

12月15日，国家统计局发布最新数据，全国70个大中城市的二手住宅销售价格，环比全面下跌，其中，北上广深 一线城市以1.1%的环比跌幅，继续"领跌"全国，创下2024年10月以来的最大单月跌幅。其他66个二线和三线城市 的二手住宅销售价格，环比下降0.6%。出现了明显的"一线领跌、二三线跟跌"的市场局面。 具体来看，北京的二手房价格，环比下降了1.3%；上海的二手房价格，环比下降了1.0%；广州的二手房价格，环 比下降了0.9%；深圳的二手房价格，环比下降了1.3%。其中，北京和深圳的跌幅较上月分别扩大0.3%和0.4%，显 示出核心城市房价调整的压力，持续加大。在二线城市中，杭州、南京、武汉等经济发达城市的下跌幅度在 0.7%-0.9%之间，高于其他二线城市平均水平。在三线城市中，部分前期房价上涨较快的城市如徐州、洛阳等，跌 幅也达到了0.8%左右。 这样的市场表现背后，是多重因素的共同作用。第一，宏观经济的增速放缓，对居民收入的预期，形成了压制。 今年前三季度GDP增速为4.2%，低于疫情前的水平，造成了购房者观望情绪加重。第二，房地产税试点扩大的预 期，持续影响市场心理。虽然房产税的具体方案尚未公布，但 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.47% to close below 48,000 points, the Nasdaq dropping by 1.81%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.16% [1] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 6.9% to 17.62, indicating increased investor anxiety [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks saw significant declines, with Nvidia down 3.8%, Microsoft down 0.1%, Amazon down 0.6%, Apple down 1.0%, Meta down 1.2%, Google down 3.1%, and Tesla down 4.6% [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.3%, with notable drops in chip manufacturers such as Broadcom down 4.4% and AMD down 5.3% [3] Corporate Developments - Oracle's stock dropped by 5.4% following news that its largest data center partner, Blue Owl Capital, would no longer fund a $10 billion data center project, raising market concerns despite Oracle's clarifying announcement [3] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock fell by 2.3% after the board rejected a $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid from Paramount-DreamWorks, opting instead for a more certain offer from Netflix [3] Commodity Market Movements - International oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.21% to $55.94 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 1.29% to $59.68 per barrel [3] - Precious metals saw gains driven by risk-averse sentiment, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.00% to $4,347.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 5.64% to $66.237 per ounce, both reaching historical closing highs [3] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to November 2025, stamp duty revenue reached 404.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with securities transaction stamp duty at 185.5 billion yuan, up 70.7% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with five other departments, issued a notice promoting clean and efficient coal utilization, encouraging upgrades and modifications to existing projects to meet benchmark levels [4]

这几年我们能明显感受到，一些二三线城市正在经历人口的流失。不是说这些地方不好，而是它们逐渐成为了一个奇怪的现 象：年轻人来了以后待不久，最后还是会选择离开。有些是回到家乡，有的是去往更大的城市，也有人干脆放弃了城市生活。 政府部门其实也注意到了这个问题，不少城市都推出了各种吸引人才的政策，给大学毕业生补贴、放宽落户条件、提供住房支 持等等。可是再好的政策好像也难以留住那些真正沮丧的打工人。 我们有必要冷静下来看一看，到底是哪几座城市在面临这样的困境。这不是在说这些地方有什么问题，只是在客观描述一个现 象。有些城市的工资水平与生活成本的比例确实显得很不匹配。 小李在南昌一家软件公司工作了3年，月薪8000块。他租住在老城区一个15平的房间里，每月房租要1500块。买房的梦想对他来 说早就成了奢望。去年年底，他终于决定回到老家三线城市，虽然工作机会少了一些，生活成本却降低了太多。他的故事在我 们的朋友圈里激起了不少共鸣。很多在大城市打拼的人都在经历同样的困境：拼命工作却越来越看不到希望。 我们的一个朋友在长沙工作了4年，最后还是决定去往北京。他说不是长沙不好，只是他在那里看不到5年以后的自己会是什么 样子。他算了 ...

上个月，一位朋友找到我，倾诉着他心中的巨大困惑。他手头有一套位于三四线城市市中心的旧房，房龄已达十八载。近来，一位买家出价，价格仅比他五 年前购入时高出寥寥无几。与此同时，他的女儿即将步入婚姻殿堂，期望能在繁华的一线城市购置新居。这让他陷入两难：是果断出售老房，将资金投入一 线城市的房产，还是应该暂缓交易，静观其变？面对这种复杂的局面，我并未立刻给出定论，因为这背后牵扯着诸多考量。 如今，这种抉择正困扰着千家万户。一些人急于抓住当下的上车机会，生怕错过便再无可能；而另一些人则紧握现有房产，犹豫着此刻出手是否会成为日后 的遗憾。这两种心态，正是当前市场焦虑的缩影。今天，我们不妨拨开迷雾，将这个问题彻底厘清。 这引出了一个核心疑问：为何市场会演变至此？我们逐一剖析。 首先是人口结构的变迁。我国人口结构正在发生深刻变化，年轻群体数量减少，这直接削弱了住房的刚性需求。供大于求的局面下，房价自然承受着巨大的 下行压力。 其次是宏观经济环境的影响。近年来，许多家庭的收入增速放缓，部分行业仍在进行深度调整。在这样的背景下，即便房价停滞不前，许多人也已感觉购房 压力倍增。购买力下降，使得市场上真正能完成交易的购房者数量锐减。 ...

Core Insights - The investment strategy for 2026 will shift from valuation-driven to a dual focus on earnings and valuation, emphasizing technology autonomy, domestic demand recovery, and high-dividend assets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The low interest rate environment is prompting a reassessment of asset values, with a focus on stable returns while managing risks [2] - The "fixed income +" products are expected to experience a third round of expansion, with the scale surpassing 2 trillion yuan by mid-2025, driven by demand for alternatives following regulatory changes and a recovering equity market [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to transition from external demand-driven growth to a balance of internal and external demand, with a potential earnings growth turning point in 2026 [2] - After three years of decline, A-share earnings showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with expectations for further growth in 2027 [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Four main domestic investment themes have been identified: 1. Semiconductor and military industries, with significant demand expected in 2026 [3] 2. "Anti-involution" sectors like chemicals and new energy, benefiting from policy-driven supply-demand improvements [3] 3. Service sector consumption, with increased policy support expected to boost recovery in travel and dining [3] 4. Real estate industry chain, projected to rebound in the second half of 2026 after a prolonged downturn [3] Group 4: International Investment Strategy - The "barbell strategy" emphasizes investments in U.S. tech stocks, which are pivotal in the AI revolution, and Hong Kong stocks, known for their high dividend yields, which have outperformed tech indices over the past decade [3] Group 5: Technology Sector Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to see sustained momentum, driven by global AI advancements and China's technological rise, with a balanced focus on domestic and international capabilities [4] - Key developments in AI, such as the emergence of DeepSeek and advancements in reusable rockets, are seen as critical milestones for the industry [4] Group 6: AI Industry Growth - The AI industry is still in its early growth phase, with no substantial bubble present, as current valuations are reasonable compared to historical tech bubbles [5][6] - The focus on AI infrastructure is strong, with significant opportunities anticipated in cloud applications, edge devices, and autonomous technologies [6] Group 7: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies include a focus on established "white horse" stocks while diversifying into promising second-tier leaders and hidden champions [7] - Attention is drawn to the "sweet spot" of the industry cycle, with a focus on high-growth potential in the application phase of AI technologies [7]

2026 年度策略会年度策略报告巡礼之金融篇 20251217 摘要 2025 年证券板块内部出现分化，A 股广发证券表现最佳，H 股广发证券 涨幅显著，而部分股票如国联民生、财富趋势、招商证券则出现下跌， 反映市场对不同券商的业绩和发展前景存在差异化预期。 2026 年证券行业展望：各类资金持续入市，推动成交量维持高位；经 纪业务受益于客户保证金扩张和线上获客能力提升；两融余额预计提升， 增加利润贡献；资管业务通过丰富投资策略和向主动管理转型提升业绩。 保险资金入市方面，大型国有保险公司新增保费的 30%需投资股票，居 民存款搬家潜力巨大，有望推动增量资金入市。经纪业务收入与利润贡 献预计保持重要地位，线上化、AI 化趋势明显。两融余额持续增长，资 管业务需通过丰富投资策略及向主动管理转型来提升业绩。 2025 年前三季度港股日均成交额同比增长显著，南向资金占比提升， 港股 IPO 发行大幅增长，A 股上市公司赴港二次 IPO 占比超 70%。预计 港股市场发行将持续扩张，美联储降息将保持港股流动性充裕。 2025 年 A 股保险股表现平稳，港股保险股超额收益显著，受顺周期属 性和高估值性价比驱动。新华保险 ...