◎记者 孔令仪 唐燕飞 9月24日，工业工程企业山东宝盖新材料科技股份有限公司向港交所GEM(创业板)递交招股书，这是今 年第11家向港交所GEM递表的企业。 "今年港股GEM上市申请企业较往年同期更多，主要是因为港股市场流动性改善和估值修复。对于一些 有迫切融资需求的中小企业来说，GEM不失为一种上市路径选择。"毕马威华南区资本市场发展主管合 伙人姜健成在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，"GEM上市审核时间长短，主要与上市公司的自身质 地、申请资料完备程度、申请公司对于监管机构提问回复的速度及质量相关。" 数据显示，2024年共有3家公司向港交所GEM递交招股书，目前均已完成上市；2023年有5家公司向港 交所GEM递交招股书，其中1家公司撤回申请，另外4家公司招股书自动失效。今年以来，尚未有企业 实现在GEM上市，但有一家GEM企业成功转板至港交所主板上市。 中小企业冲刺GEM上市意愿增强 港交所官网显示，截至9月26日，今年11家公司正在冲刺GEM上市，这些公司主要分布在基础化工、教 育、纺织服饰、家居建材、软件与IT服务等领域。 从业绩表现来看，上述11家公司的年收入多数在1亿元（人民币，下同）左右，年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market shows a low probability of rising in the five trading days before the National Day holiday, but the last trading day before the holiday has a 70% probability of an increase, while the market tends to rise after the holiday [1][6] - Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has a 70% probability of rising on the first trading day after the holiday and a 60% probability of rising in the following five trading days [2][6] - The leading sectors in the A-share market before and after the National Day holiday exhibit significant rotation, covering various fields such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology [6][7] Group 2 - The leading sectors for the five trading days before the holiday from 2020 to 2024 include Food & Beverage, Social Services, and Defense & Military, while the sectors leading after the holiday include Electronics, Automotive, and Pharmaceuticals [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and potential profit-taking by investors [6][7] - The financing trend typically shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday and explosion after," indicating a shift in risk appetite post-holiday [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations from August 25 to August 29, with major indices showing reduced volatility. The ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 rose by 7.74% and 9.27% respectively, while the Sci-Tech 50 recorded a 7.49% increase, driven by policy support, particularly the State Council's announcement on August 26 regarding the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, and the Shenzhen Index rose by 4.36%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite some sectors facing challenges [3] Industry Performance - The Wind first-level average index rose by 0.87%, with 72% of the Wind Top 100 concept indices showing positive returns. The telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed well, increasing by 12.38%, 7.16%, and 6.28% respectively. In contrast, the banking, coal, and textile sectors declined by 2.13%, 2.76%, and 2.87% [3][16] - The technology and materials sectors led the market, with the information technology sector achieving a 5.69% increase, while traditional sectors like energy and finance faced declines of -1.74% and -1.44% respectively, reflecting a growing divergence in industry performance during the economic recovery [16][17] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 41 funds were issued last week, including 29 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 2 FOFs, with a total issuance of 28.205 billion units [4][20] - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.41%, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 2.59% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 2.86% [4][11] Global Asset Review - Global equity markets showed structural differentiation, with U.S. indices slightly declining due to pressure on tech stocks. European markets faced significant drops, with the French CAC and German DAX falling by 2.60% and 1.89% respectively, influenced by political instability in France and concerns over the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Commodity markets saw precious metals leading gains, with COMEX gold and silver rising by 2.86% and 4.34% respectively, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.76% to close at 3800.35 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 1.43% to 12295.07 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.69% to 2723.20 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose slightly by 0.13% to 1272.56 points [1][12]. - Overall, there were 633 stocks that rose and 4761 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 31656 billion yuan, an increase of 4865 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for telecommunications experienced declines. The leading sectors in decline included beauty care (-3.86%), real estate (-3.51%), comprehensive (-3.14%), building materials (-3.05%), and textile and apparel (-2.99%). The telecommunications sector saw an increase of 1.66% [1][12]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included rare earths, rare earth permanent magnets, semiconductors, and smart speakers, while sectors such as digital currency, western infrastructure, and titanium dioxide experienced pullbacks [2][11].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% today, with a trading volume of 915.04 million shares and a turnover of 1,124.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Light Industry Manufacturing: increased by 0.54% with a turnover of 12.62 billion yuan, led by Tianan New Material, which rose by 10.05% [1]. - Computer: increased by 0.52% with a turnover of 107.90 billion yuan, led by Tianrun Technology, which rose by 22.94% [1]. - Textile and Apparel: increased by 0.42% with a turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, led by Hongqingting, which rose by 7.58% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - Building Decoration: decreased by 1.87% with a turnover of 38.46 billion yuan, led by Deep Water Planning Institute, which fell by 14.62% [2]. - Building Materials: decreased by 1.69% with a turnover of 19.11 billion yuan, led by Huaxin Cement, which fell by 9.25% [2]. - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.21% with a turnover of 2.34 billion yuan, led by Nanjing New Hundred, which fell by 6.38% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Tianan New Material (Light Industry Manufacturing) with a gain of 10.05% [1]. - Tianrun Technology (Computer) with a gain of 22.94% [1]. - Hongqingting (Textile and Apparel) with a gain of 7.58% [1]. - Notable decliners included: - Deep Water Planning Institute (Building Decoration) with a decline of 14.62% [2]. - Huaxin Cement (Building Materials) with a decline of 9.25% [2]. - Nanjing New Hundred (Comprehensive) with a decline of 6.38% [2].

Market Review - Major indices experienced declines in the recent trading days from June 13 to June 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.19% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.95% [5] - The trading volume slightly decreased, with a total of 6.33 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion yuan, down by 99.55 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [13] Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, continuing to decline, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.6% [29] - Manufacturing investment rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, indicating a need for stabilization in the real estate market [30] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly rebounding by 1.3 percentage points, supported by policies and promotional events [32] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a "1+6" policy package aimed at further reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the introduction of a growth tier and the resumption of the fifth set of listing standards [34] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the future [35] Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by continued fluctuations, with external risks not fully dissipated and key variables needed to break the existing trend [38] - Investment opportunities are identified in the banking sector due to high dividend yields and defensive characteristics, as well as thematic investment opportunities in the TMT sector, biomedicine, and national defense industries [38]

Group 1 - The report highlights a trend of increasing credit risk in the convertible bond market over the past five years, with a significant rise in the number of downgrades from 7 in 2020 to 49 in 2024, while upgrades remain scarce [1][11][23] - There is a notable seasonal clustering in rating adjustments, particularly during Q1 and Q4, with Q1 2022 seeing a peak where 73% of downgrades occurred, indicating a concentration of risk exposure during financial disclosures [11][12] - Structural differentiation is evident across industries, with social services and textiles experiencing significantly higher downgrade ratios, while sectors like coal and steel show no downgrades, reflecting their cash flow stability [17][18] Group 2 - A comprehensive rating factor system is essential for predicting credit ratings, categorized into five main factors: conversion pressure, debt repayment pressure, profitability and operational efficiency, corporate governance, and market performance [2][28] - The conversion pressure factor indicates that indicators such as bond balance to underlying stock market value and recent stock price trends are positively correlated with rating downgrades, while conversion value shows a negative correlation [29][30] - The debt repayment pressure factor reveals that a higher debt-to-asset ratio correlates positively with downgrades, while metrics like EBITDA to interest-bearing debt show a negative correlation, indicating the importance of long-term repayment capacity [40][41] Group 3 - The profitability and operational efficiency factor assesses the issuer's ability to generate cash flow, with continuous losses and financial delisting risks showing a strong positive correlation with downgrades, while metrics like earnings per share exhibit a negative correlation [46][51] - Corporate governance factors, such as the type of audit opinion, significantly influence credit ratings, with non-standard audit opinions correlating positively with downgrades, indicating potential financial uncertainties [58][60] - Market performance factors reflect real-time investor sentiment towards the issuer's creditworthiness, with indicators like market price and earnings ratios showing significant correlations with rating changes [3][61]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.23% closing at 3384.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.58% closing at 10203.50 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.17% closing at 2048.61 points [1][9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors were communication, electronics, computers, media, and machinery equipment, with increases of 2.62%, 2.31%, 2.12%, 1.27%, and 0.98% respectively [1] - The sectors that experienced declines included beauty care, textiles and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, comprehensive, and pharmaceutical biology, with decreases of 3.07%, 1.81%, 1.79%, 1.30%, and 1.01% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included circuit boards, digital currency, IDC, 5G, big data, memory, cloud computing, financial technology, technology leaders, cameras, smart speakers, consumer electronics manufacturing, cybersecurity, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% and total trading volume slightly expanding to over 1.17 trillion [1] - The recent PMI data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin indicates that both are in the contraction zone, highlighting insufficient demand as a primary issue [1][2] Economic Policy and Trade - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which may create uncertainty for companies in formulating long-term strategies [2] - The domestic steel industry faces short-term cost pressures, but policies like "old for new" may partially offset these challenges [2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Caixin manufacturing PMI for May recorded 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [2] - Both official and Caixin PMI data are in the contraction zone, with the Caixin data reflecting a more significant decline, likely due to its focus on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Market Performance - On June 4, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3376.20 points, up 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10144.58 points, up 0.87% [3] - Among the sectors, beauty care, comprehensive, and textile apparel led the gains, while transportation, defense, and public utilities experienced declines [3] Capital Flow - The market turnover reached 11,776.08 billion, an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance reported at 18,044.88 billion, also up from the prior day [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating a significant divergence in market performance among sectors, with transportation seeing the highest inflow and computer industry facing the largest outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary Net Inflow - Transportation industry recorded a net inflow of 1.479 billion, with a price change of 0.90% and a turnover rate of 1.01%, showing a 40.74% increase in trading volume compared to the previous day [1]. - Banking sector saw a net inflow of 0.546 billion, with a price change of 0.67% and a turnover rate of 0.23%, but a decrease in trading volume by 13.37% [1]. - Non-banking financials had a net inflow of 0.508 billion, with a price change of 0.26% and a turnover rate of 0.87%, experiencing a 9.20% increase in trading volume [1]. Net Outflow - The computer industry experienced the largest net outflow of 3.464 billion, with a price change of -0.90% and a turnover rate of 3.63%, showing a 6.76% increase in trading volume [2]. - The communication sector faced a net outflow of 0.276 billion, with a price change of -0.97% and a turnover rate of 1.59%, reflecting a 6.52% increase in trading volume [2]. - The electronic industry had a net outflow of 2.715 billion, with a price change of -0.60% and a turnover rate of 1.95%, showing a slight decrease in trading volume by 0.43% [2].