国信证券近日发布公用环保行业202508第2期：本周沪深300指数上涨1.23%，公用事业 指数上涨1.61%，环保指数上涨2.58%，周相对收益率分别为0.38%和1.34%。申万31个一级 行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第22和第8名。电力板块子板块中，火电上涨 2.88%；水电下跌0.56%，新能源发电上涨0.52%；水务板块上涨0.29%；燃气板块上涨 3.60%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资策略：公用事业：1.煤价电价同步下行，火电盈利有望维持合理水平，推荐全国大 型火电企业华电国际以及区域电价较为坚挺的上海电力；2.国家持续出台政策支持新能源发 展，新能源发电盈利有望逐步趋于稳健，推荐全国性新能源发电龙头企业龙源电力、三峡能 源，区域优质海上风电企业广西能源、福能股份、中闽能源，以及开展新能源与智算中心一 体化深化算电协同标的金开新能；3.装机和发电量增长对冲电价下行压力，预计核电公司盈 利仍将维持稳定，推荐核电运营标的中国核电、中国广核；国家电投整合核电资产，打造A 股第三家核电运营商，推荐重组标的电投产融；4.全球降息背景下高分红的水电股防御属性 凸显，推荐业绩稳健性和成长性兼具的水电 ...

Core Insights - Tianfu Energy (600509.SH) reported a total revenue of 4.066 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 484 million yuan or 10.64% compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 304 million yuan, down by 9.3866 million yuan or 3.00% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 226 million yuan, a decline of 149 million yuan or 39.65% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 71.04%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 3.10 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 22.83%, down by 0.26 percentage points from the previous quarter, but up by 4.39 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is 3.95%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings and Efficiency Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.22 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan or 3.45% compared to the same period last year [4] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.13 times, down by 0.05 times or 28.14% year-on-year [4] - The inventory turnover ratio is 8.89 times, a decrease of 0.96 times or 9.71% compared to the same period last year [4] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 69,700, with the top ten shareholders holding 540 million shares, accounting for 39.30% of the total share capital [4] - The largest shareholder is China New Construction Power Group Co., Ltd., holding 33.60% of the shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to promote the development of green electricity direct connection, marking the first time a national-level framework for this model has been established [1] Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection - Green electricity direct connection refers to the supply of renewable energy such as wind, solar, and biomass directly to a single electricity user without going through the public grid, allowing for clear physical traceability of the supplied electricity [2] - The policy aims to address the challenges of renewable energy consumption, promote low-carbon transformation in industries, and meet the growing demand for green energy from enterprises, especially in the context of international carbon barriers [2][3] - The notification emphasizes the need for nearby consumption of renewable energy to better meet the green energy needs of enterprises, particularly in light of China's rapid growth in the photovoltaic industry [2] Group 2: Market Mechanism and Structural Changes - Green electricity direct connection is expected to bring structural changes to the electricity industry, shifting from large-scale centralized development to a combination of centralized consumption and distributed local consumption [4] - This model allows companies to directly purchase low-cost green electricity, thereby reducing energy costs and changing energy consumption patterns [4] - The introduction of green electricity direct connection is seen as a key step in China's electricity market reform, impacting transaction mechanisms, price formation, and the cultivation of new business entities [4][5] Group 3: Implementation Challenges and Solutions - Several provinces, including Jiangsu, Yunnan, and Qinghai, have begun to implement plans to promote green electricity direct connection, focusing on operational management and source-load matching [6] - Challenges such as the sustainability of business models and the efficiency of operational modes need to be addressed for broader application of green electricity direct connection [6] - A coordination mechanism is necessary to balance the relationship between green electricity direct connection projects and grid companies, ensuring that the revenue of grid companies is not adversely affected while maintaining the price advantage of direct connection [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of sectors including finance, commodities, and energy - chemical. In the financial sector, factors such as tariff policies, central bank operations, and potential leadership changes in the Fed impact market trends. In the commodity sector, supply - demand relationships are influenced by natural conditions, production disruptions, and policy regulations. In the energy - chemical sector, factors like inventory levels, production capacity, and market demand determine the price trends of various products [13][27][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that gold will not be subject to additional tariffs. After this confirmation, gold prices dropped significantly, especially COMEX gold futures. The spread between New York gold and London gold has returned to normal, and Shanghai gold followed London gold in the correction. Short - term gold prices lack the momentum to break through, and there is a risk of a pullback [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the VAT law. The A - share market is highly bullish, with all positive factors fully reflected. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are new candidates for the successor to Powell. Trump downplayed the expectations for the US - Russia summit, so the meeting may not yield effective results, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [18][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia and AMD are expected to pay 15% of their sales of AI chips to China to the US government in exchange for export licenses. The market is concerned about the upcoming CPI data, and there is a risk of a pullback in the US stock market [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long - position holders should pay attention to the rhythm [25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August increased compared to the same period last year. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% to 68%. It is necessary to closely monitor the development of China - US relations and the USDA's August supply - demand report [27][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July increased by 4.02% month - on - month, which was lower than market expectations. Indonesia plans to implement B50 in 2026 and may increase the DMO, which is positive for international palm oil prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for palm oil futures [30][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coke price in the Linfen market is rising. Some coal mines issued a notice on the trial implementation of the 276 - working - day production plan, which affects market sentiment. Short - term futures prices have limited upside potential, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies and demand changes [35][36]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Cuba's sugar production in the 2024/25 season dropped below 150,000 tons. The US tariff on South African imports has a serious impact on South African sugarcane growers. India's ethanol production's dependence on sugarcane has decreased, and the net sugar production in the 25/26 season may increase significantly [37][40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. Starch enterprises'开机 rate increased last week, and inventory accumulated again. It is recommended to avoid trading the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts while monitoring weather conditions [41][45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, automobile sales increased by 14.7% year - on - year. Steel prices are rising, and the market expects supply to decrease due to environmental protection restrictions. The short - term market is expected to be strong, but there are risks [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Precipitation in North China and the Huang - Huai region has alleviated the drought, but there is a risk of waterlogging. The 09 contract of corn futures has limited upside and downside potential, and it is recommended to avoid it. Hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to weather changes [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina production capacity is in a state of over - supply. Newly - added production capacity is being gradually released, and the market is moving towards a more relaxed supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The damage to Chile's El Teniente copper mine is more severe than initially expected. Lundin Mining's copper production in the second quarter increased by 11.8% year - on - year. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [47][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated signed a 450 - million - yuan polysilicon purchase contract. Polysilicon inventory is accumulating, and production is expected to increase in August. Short - term polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to have a bullish view on pullbacks and consider selling out - of - the - money put options [51][53]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The DMC market shows a co - existence of stable prices and price concessions. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but due to the increase in demand from polysilicon, the market may still be in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 8, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $31.29 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots continued to decline. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased significantly, and the supply is expected to be high in August. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions well for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Yichun project has suspended mining after the expiration of the mining license on August 9. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and pay attention to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [61][62]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 936 tons on August 11. Short - term nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly. In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63][65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. International freight rates have risen significantly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in spot prices and factory warehouse behavior and consider the far - month positive arbitrage opportunity [66][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq raised the official selling price of Basra medium - grade crude oil to Asia in September. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt in refineries increased significantly, and the demand is still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories changed little. The current industry's production cut extension is showing results, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. The absolute price of bottle chips mainly follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market has different production - sales ratios in different regions. The short - term supply - demand pattern of urea is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release rhythm of autumn fertilizer demand [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price rose on August 11. The unilateral price of PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased. The production of styrene is expected to remain high in the short term, and the start - up rate may decline in September. The current price of styrene is expected to fluctuate [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the spot basis strengthened. The demand side is still weak, and the supply side may see a slight recovery in processing fees. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [81][83]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply of caustic soda has increased, and the demand is average. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [84][86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot market of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend. The short - term pulp futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [87]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market was slightly adjusted. The current fundamentals of PVC are still weak, but macro - level positives and rising coal prices support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate [88]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. The medium - term strategy for soda ash is to short on rallies, but there may be supply - side policy disturbances [89][90]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The glass futures price was slightly stronger due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage strategies [91].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Guoxin's stock price closed at 7.50 yuan on August 11, 2025, reflecting a decline of 1.06% from the previous trading day [1] Company Overview - Jiangsu Guoxin primarily engages in the electricity sector, with business operations including power generation and heating [1] - The company is a significant energy enterprise within Jiangsu Province [1] Market Performance - On August 11, 2025, the trading volume for Jiangsu Guoxin was 22.24 million shares, with a total transaction value of 166.7 million yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds on that day was 12.62 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.87 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] Financial Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Jiangsu Guoxin is 8.20 times, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 0.87 times [1]

截至2025年8月11日15时，永泰能源股价报1.45元，与前一交易日持平。该股当日开盘价为1.45元，最高 触及1.46元，最低下探至1.45元，成交量为193.11万手，成交金额达2.81亿元。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 永泰能源属于电力行业，同时涉及煤化工、物联网、核能核电等多个领域。公司总市值316.36亿元，流 通市值316.36亿元。数据显示，A股市场股价低于2元的个股共有36只，永泰能源位列其中。 从资金流向来看，永泰能源当日主力资金净流出748.95万元，占流通市值的0.02%。近五个交易日累计 净流出1585.01万元，占流通市值的0.05%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a national unified electricity market marks a significant historical transition in China's electricity market reform, moving from regional fragmentation to a nationally standardized operation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Structure and Rules - The national unified electricity market is a crucial component of the broader national unified market, providing essential practices for its construction [1]. - The "1+6" basic rule system has been preliminarily established, marking a milestone in the reform of the electricity market [2]. - The basic rules of electricity market operation serve as the foundation, with long-term, spot, and ancillary service rules forming the core, supported by disclosure, registration, and settlement rules [3]. Group 2: Market Activity and Growth - In the first half of the year, the national market trading electricity volume reached 2.95 trillion kilowatt-hours, with cross-regional trading increasing by 18.2% year-on-year [4]. - The electricity spot market is achieving significant breakthroughs, with the National Development and Reform Commission indicating that it will soon achieve near-complete coverage [5]. - By the end of 2024, the number of market participants is expected to rise to 816,000, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Green Energy and Future Outlook - The national green certificate trading volume is projected to reach 446 million units in 2024, a staggering increase of 364% year-on-year [7]. - By 2030, the scale of market-based electricity trading in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, with the proportion of renewable energy participation rising from 30% to over 80% [8]. - Future regulatory guidelines will continue to enhance the basic rule system of the national unified electricity market, ensuring efficient coordination among various market categories [8].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial bond market in China has experienced significant growth in both issuance quantity and scale, with a year-on-year increase of 46.54% in the number of bonds and 32.61% in total issuance amount, reaching 1.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Drivers - A total of 2053 industrial bonds have been successfully issued this year, reflecting a robust expansion in the market [1] - Key drivers for this growth include sustained policy support, strong corporate financing demand, reduced supply of municipal bonds, and increased market maturity and innovation [1][2] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has also surged, with 493 bonds issued, marking a 61.64% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Innovation - Regulatory measures have significantly improved the financing environment, particularly in the technology sector, which has become a crucial driver for market expansion [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has actively promoted the regular issuance of high-growth industrial bonds, resulting in 53 successful issuances totaling 31.815 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Benefits of Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds provide diverse financing channels for various types of enterprises, including state-owned, private, and foreign companies, while also optimizing corporate debt structures [3] - The development of the industrial bond market enhances the multi-tiered capital market system, increasing the proportion of direct financing and reducing reliance on indirect financing [3] - By optimizing capital allocation, industrial bonds can improve resource utilization efficiency and support the growth of competitive enterprises, contributing to high-quality economic development [3]

Carbon Neutrality Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released the "Basic Rules for Metering and Settlement in the Electricity Market" on August 6, which includes 56 articles covering metering management, settlement management, and supervision management [1] - The rules aim to unify metering and settlement processes, enhance risk management, and standardize electricity payment processes between power generation and grid companies, as well as between users and grid companies [1][2] Energy Storage Standards - The first mandatory national standard for energy storage, GB 44240-2024, took effect on August 1, focusing on safety requirements for lithium batteries used in energy storage systems [3] - This standard introduces stricter testing requirements and aims to phase out substandard production, shifting the industry focus from cost to safety [3][4] Circular Economy Initiatives - The COP30 conference will include circular economy topics for the first time, scheduled for November 2025 in Brazil, highlighting its importance in climate change discussions [4] - The inclusion of circular economy in the agenda is expected to enhance global cooperation and resource efficiency [4][5] Local Dynamics - The Shanxi steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transformation, requiring approximately 148.3 billion yuan in funding over the next decade to support advanced technologies and processes [5] - The transition is driven by the need for financial support and the urgency of moving towards green and low-carbon practices in resource-dependent industries [5][6] Corporate Practices - Fuyou Truck launched its first "Hydrogen-Powered Zero Carbon New Line" on August 6, marking a significant step in promoting green logistics [6] - The new line, approximately 450 kilometers long, is part of Fuyou Truck's strategy to integrate smart and green logistics, aiming to set a benchmark for zero carbon emissions in freight transport [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 公用环保 202508 第 2 期 优于大市 山东 136 号文细则发布，浙江电力现货市场转正式运行 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.23%，公用事业指数上涨 1.61%，环 保指数上涨 2.58%，周相对收益率分别为 0.38%和 1.34%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 22 和第 8 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 2.88%；水电下跌 0.56%，新能源发电上涨 0.52%； 水务板块上涨 0.29%；燃气板块上涨 3.60%。 重要事件：山东发改委发布关于印发《山东省新能源机制电价竞价实施 细则》的通知。竞价申报主体为已投产和计划次年 12 月 31 日前投产（首 次竞价为 2025 年 6 月 1 日-12 月 31 日内投产），且未纳入过机制电价 执行范围的新能源项目。文件明确：机制电量总规模为 94.67 亿千瓦时， 其中，风电为 81.73 亿千瓦时，光伏为 12.94 亿千瓦时。单个项目机制 电量比例风电为 70%，光伏为 80%。竞价上限风电、光伏均为每千瓦时 0.35 元，竞价下限风电为 0.094 ...