Core Insights - The report by OECD and FAO forecasts growth in global agricultural and fishery markets over the next decade, although the growth rate is expected to slow down [1][2] Consumption Trends - Agricultural and fish consumption will continue to rise, driven by urbanization and increased income levels in low and middle-income countries, leading to more diverse and nutritious diets [1] - By 2034, the total caloric intake from animal-source foods is projected to increase by 6%, with chicken consumption growing the fastest, followed by beef and pork [1] Production Trends - Agricultural and fishery production is expected to grow, primarily due to productivity improvements, especially in low and middle-income countries [2] - The report anticipates a 16% increase in livestock production and a 12% increase in fishery production over the next decade, with aquaculture being a significant driver [2] International Trade - International trade will play a crucial role in the agricultural and fishery markets, with an expected increase in trade volume to balance global supply and demand [3] - Major meat-exporting countries identified include Brazil, the USA, Argentina, India, Thailand, and Turkey, while China, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Turkey are expected to be significant importers [3] Challenges and Opportunities - The report highlights the need for policymakers to ensure food security and nutrition, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and enhance international cooperation [4] - Addressing risks such as climate change and geopolitical tensions is essential for maintaining stability in agricultural and fishery production [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company successfully issued its third phase of medium-term notes for the year 2025, raising a total of 500 million RMB to optimize its financing structure and reduce costs [1]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance was approved by the company's board and shareholders on December 5 and December 21, 2023, respectively [1]. - The total issuance scale was 500 million RMB, with all funds received by July 23, 2025 [1]. - The medium-term note is named "25牧原食品 MTN003" with a code of 102583015, having a term of 2 years [1]. Group 2: Financial Terms - The interest rate for the issued notes is set at 2.15% [1]. - The issuance price was 100 RMB per 100 RMB face value [1]. Group 3: Underwriters - The lead underwriter for this issuance was Industrial Bank Co., Ltd., with joint lead underwriters being China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. and Huaxia Bank Co., Ltd. [1].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine and Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to increased trial and error costs for companies, resulting in some reducing production or exiting the market [1][2] - The overall market is characterized by a "short bull, long bear" cycle, with the agricultural sector underperforming in the secondary market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Pork price fluctuations significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI), despite pork's low share (1.2%-1.5%) in CPI, due to its strong cyclicality and amplification effects [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, pork prices are expected to decline by 20% quarter-on-quarter, with potential further decreases in the second half if no policy interventions occur, affecting CPI negatively [1][4] - Approximately one-third of breeding entities are currently operating at a loss [1][4] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is leading a multi-ministerial effort to balance swine supply and demand, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million to reverse the cycle and increase prices [1][5] - Initial policy execution has been weak, with some leading companies expanding against the trend, prompting regulatory bodies to strengthen credit policies to maintain a price floor of 14 yuan/kg [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Muyuan Foods**: Noted for its significant cost advantage and potential for profit release, with projections of achieving over 30 billion yuan in profits if costs drop to 11 yuan/kg by 2026 [1][8] - **Bangji and Dekang**: Innovative companies focusing on empowering farmers and achieving efficient expansion through light-asset models [1][8] Livestock Industry Trends - The beef industry is currently in a deep loss phase, but with reduced imports due to anti-dumping investigations, a capacity clearance is expected [3][10] - The beef cycle is similar to the swine cycle, with low production rates and slow recovery in capacity expected [3][10] Future Prospects for Dairy and Beef Companies - Companies like **Yuran** and **Shengmu** are expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in both beef and dairy markets, with stable operations and prices above industry averages [3][11] - Profit projections for Yuran are estimated at 2.8 to 4 billion yuan by 2026, while Shengmu is expected to reach 600 million to 1 billion yuan [3][13] Overall Investment Strategy - The livestock sector, including swine, beef, and dairy, presents significant investment potential. Companies like Yuran and Shengmu are recommended for their dual-benefit logic and stable operational status [3][14] - Continuous monitoring of policy changes and anti-dumping investigations is advised to adjust investment strategies accordingly [3][14]

7月23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，部党组书记、部长韩俊主持会议并讲话。 会议强调，要认真贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，落实党中央、国务院决策部署，进一步强化市场引 导和政策支持，健全生猪产能综合调控机制，促进生猪市场稳定运行，加快推进生猪产业转型升级，推 动生猪产业稳定健康发展。座谈会上，牧原食品、正大投资、四川德康农牧食品、北京大北农 （002385）、广西扬翔、山东锦成浩达公司、山西泽州县宋建鹏养殖场、温氏食品、重庆琪泰佳牧、双 胞胎集团、河南双汇相关负责人，四川、河南、广东省农业农村厅主要负责人，国家生猪产业技术体系 首席专家，中国畜牧业协会主要负责人发言。大家普遍反映，近年来我国生猪稳产保供能力持续增强， 种源供给能力明显提升，生物安全防控有效落实，生产效率和产业素质不断提升。去年下半年以来，及 时开展逆周期调节，引导各方面有序调减生猪产能，取得了明显成效。生猪养殖自去年5月份以来已连 续14个月盈利，生猪生产形势总体较好。韩俊认真听取大家发言，就有关问题作深入交流，要求进一步 完善有关政策举措，坚决防止出现生产大起大落、价格大跌，切实消除生猪产业高质量发展的深层次制 约，提升生 ...

7月22日， 内蒙古证监局公布的一纸罚单，揭开了内蒙古骑士乳业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"骑士乳业"）在期货市场巨亏却隐瞒不报的违规内幕。该公 司及包括时任董事长党涌涛在内的三名高管因未及时披露重大损失，被处以总计340万元的罚款及警告。该决定书落款日期为2025年7月18日。 经内蒙古证监局查明，骑士乳业2024年开展了豆粕、白糖、尿素等期货交易业务，期间出现重大亏损且未按规定及时披露。 2024年1月17日，公司及其子公司8个期货账户累计亏损达902.46万元，占公司2022年度经审计净利润的12.60%。此重大亏损状态持续至2月27日，期间最高 亏损达1751.37万元，占2022年净利润的24.45%。 2024年7月18日，累计亏损扩大至1294.55万元，占公司2023年度经审计净利润的12.77%。亏损状态持续至7月25日。 2024年8月13日，累计亏损激增至3873.36万元，占2023年度净利润的38.21%。亏损状态持续至年底，期间最高亏损达到4167.88万元，占2023年度净利润的 比例高达41.12%。 内蒙古证监局认定，骑士乳业上述期货交易重大亏损事项可能对公司股票交易价格产生较 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-23 出栏有所增加，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14380元/吨，较前交易日变动+15.00元/吨，幅度+0.10%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.39元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+10，较前交易日变动-65；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 14.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH09+170，较前交易日变动-195；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.62元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-760，较前交易日变动-15。 据农业农村部监测，7月22日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.77，比昨天下降0.14个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.82，比昨天下降0.16个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.74元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉64.08 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.50元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.26 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium, indicating a significant focus on the pig farming industry [1] - There was a sudden increase in live pig prices, rising over 5% during trading, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The term "anti-involution" is mentioned, implying a broader discussion on market competition and pricing strategies within the pig farming sector [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Futures Morning Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Advisory Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs may decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. The price of LH2509 is expected to fluctuate between 14,100 and 14,500 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price is short - term volatile and weak, and the futures follow the same pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 14,310 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Group 1 - The pork concept sector rose by 2.86%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 32 stocks increasing in value, led by Dayu Biotechnology, Bangji Technology, and Shennong Group, which rose by 10.33%, 7.77%, and 7.69% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector saw a net inflow of 468 million yuan from main funds, with 24 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks attracting over 30 million yuan each, with Muyuan Foods leading at 73.31 million yuan [2][3] - The top three stocks by net inflow ratio in the pork concept sector were Dongrui Co., Shennong Group, and Zhenghong Technology, with net inflow ratios of 16.20%, 12.91%, and 12.04% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The top stocks in the pork concept sector by net inflow included Muyuan Foods, New Hope, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen, with net inflows of 73.31 million yuan, 66.12 million yuan, 58.22 million yuan, and 56.30 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading performance of stocks in the pork concept sector showed varying turnover rates, with Dongrui Co. at 2.62%, Shennong Group at 2.50%, and Tangrenshen at 8.17% [3][4] - The overall market performance indicated a positive trend in the pork sector, contributing to the sector's growth amidst fluctuations in other sectors [1][2]