格隆汇11月13日｜牧原股份公告称，近日收到股东牧原集团通知，其将持有的6420万股公司股份解除质 押，占其所持股份比例7.56%，占公司总股本比例1.18%，质权人为中信银行南阳分行，起始日为2023 年2月13日，解除日期为2025年11月12日。截至公告披露日，牧原集团及其一致行动人累计质押股份 1.73亿股，占其所持股份比例5.74%，占公司总股本比例3.16%。本次解除质押后，实际控制人及其一致 行动人剩余质押股份无实质性资金偿还风险，质押风险可控。 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices are generally under pressure and may continue a weak trend due to slow adjustment of reproductive sow capacity, significant growth in pig production capacity, high supply pressure, and potential increase in southern curing demand [4][6]. - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom because of continuous decline in chick sales, low replenishment enthusiasm, continuous increase in old - hen culling, a slight decrease in laying - hen inventory, high current laying - hen inventory, high supply pressure, and weak consumption [7][8]. Summary by Directory I. Pig 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of live pigs stopped falling after a low - level shock, and the spot price rebounded briefly and then declined again. The Zhengzhou outer ternary price dropped from 12,380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,800 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was close to the spot price [4]. 2. Breeding Situation - Pig farming is facing serious losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 89.21 yuan per head. Feed raw material prices were stable or rising, and the pig - grain ratio was 5.6, below the break - even line [4]. 3. Production Capacity - The adjustment of reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. At this pace, it will take nearly 3 years to complete the policy - required reduction of 1 million heads. The national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23% [4]. - From the perspective of large - scale farms, the adjustment progress is also slow. In September, the reproductive sow inventory of large - scale farms was 5.0421 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month. The number of piglet births increased slightly month - on - month, and the sales volume decreased. The inventory of commercial pigs increased month - on - month, and the proportion of fat pigs increased slightly [5]. 4. Demand - In October, the sales volume of commercial pigs from large - scale farms reached a new high in recent years. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. Downstream slaughter enterprises became profitable again, and the operating rate was stable and higher than the same period last year. As of November 7, the operating rate of 81 slaughter enterprises was 33.49%, a slight month - on - month increase. The southern curing demand may gradually increase [6]. II. Egg 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of eggs rebounded and then declined again. The spot price dropped, and the price of eggs in Xishui, the main producing area, decreased from 3,380 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was at a premium [7]. 2. Breeding Situation - Egg - chicken farming continues to be slightly loss - making. As of November 7, the national egg - chicken farming profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken. The loss cycle has lasted for nearly 9 months. In October, the chick sales volume was 35.88 million feathers, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years [7]. 3. Production Capacity - The culling of old hens continued to increase. In October, the culling volume of old hens at sample points was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. The laying - hen inventory decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time this year, but still increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The laying - hen inventory may decline seasonally in the fourth quarter [7][8]. 4. Consumption - Egg consumption is relatively stable and depends on festival consumption stimulation. After October, consumption was insufficient, and the egg sales volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [8].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian beef, Brazil's beef exports reached a historical high in October, driven by increased exports to China and other markets [2][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - In October, Brazil's beef export volume was approximately 357,000 tons, a 19% increase year-on-year, and a 2% increase from the previous month, which was the highest since 1997 [4]. - The export value also saw significant growth, reaching around $1.9 billion, a 40% increase compared to the same month last year [4]. - China was the largest importer, accounting for 187,000 tons, followed by the U.S. at 12,900 tons and Chile at 12,700 tons [6]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs led to a 54% year-on-year decrease in Brazil's beef exports to the U.S., with export value dropping by 48% [6]. - The U.S. market's share in Brazil's beef exports fell from approximately 10% to 3.7% by October 2024 [6]. - The tariffs were implemented in August under the Trump administration, raising concerns about the impact on Brazil's beef industry [6]. Group 3: Market Diversification - Brazil's beef export strategy has shifted towards diversification, with significant increases in exports to Mexico (up 3.1 times), the EU (up 2.1 times), and a 76% increase to China from January to October [6][9]. - The Lula government has successfully opened new markets for Brazilian beef, including Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia [9]. Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - Global beef prices are at historical highs due to climate factors reducing pasture availability and increased demand in Asia [9]. - The high tariffs on Brazilian beef have contributed to rising prices for imported goods in the U.S., affecting inflation [9]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association plans to establish an office in China by 2025 to strengthen its presence in Asia [10]. - Brazil's beef industry is expected to impact the Japanese market, although Japan remains cautious about low-priced beef imports [10].

生猪期货早报 2025-11-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11795元/吨，2601合约基差95元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and this pattern is difficult to change. The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October are expected to be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there may be a risk of early slaughter if prices decline. The future supply of pigs is still in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will further increase supply pressure [2] - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the overall demand remains weak. After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.86 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On November 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.55, down 0.02 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 1.2%; beef was 66.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 62.46 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; and white - striped chickens were 17.71 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October may be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there is a risk of early slaughter if prices fall. The future supply of pigs is in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will increase supply pressure, making the pattern of strong supply and weak demand difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3063 yuan/500 kg, down 89 yuan or 2.82% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.76 yuan/jin. The spot basis changed +89 in all three regions [3] - Inventory: On November 12, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days, up 0.08 days or 6.20% [3] Market Analysis - After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the short - term pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

11月10日，记者从西安海关获悉：陕西秦洲盛达实业有限公司养殖的首批15头秦川牛日前从延安发 往香港。这标志着延安活牛供港实现零的突破，填补了延安活畜禽出口的空白。 延安海关关长马丁介绍，延安是特色农业大市，农产品出口有着得天独厚的优势。今年以来，延安 海关聚焦县域经济发展，积极开展"一县一策"送政策上门活动，监管放行价值近7000万元的农食产品， 延安连续9个月出口增速位列全省第一。 今年1月至10月，西安海关检疫监装供港澳活牛2624头，同比增长18.3%，占内地同期供港澳活牛 总量约三成，平均每头活牛出口附加值较内销提升30%，带动畜牧业形成"以贸促产"良性循环。 西安海关动植物检疫处副处长刘文武表示，西安海关对供港澳活牛实施"日常监测、出栏预检、现 场监装"全链条监管，持续为地方农业部门提供从养殖场选址、规划到管理体系建设全流程指导，推动 陕西建成9家供港澳活牛注册饲养场，数量居全国首位。（记者：肖倩 见习记者：柯雁清） "公司获批延安市首家供港澳活牛资质企业后，今年一直在为出口忙活。多亏了延安海关手把手指 导，让我们能顺利完成活牛供港业务。"陕西秦洲盛达实业有限公司负责人陈银河说。 为帮助企业顺利出 ...

Core Insights - The company has reported a significant decline in pig prices since the third quarter, leading to overall losses in the pig farming sector, although the feed business remains profitable, resulting in a slight overall profit for the third quarter [1][2] - For the first three quarters of the year, the company's pig farming business incurred cumulative losses of approximately 180 million yuan, with a loss of 230 million yuan in the third quarter alone, although this represents a reduction in losses of 270 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The company has seen a decrease in pig farming costs, with the cost of fattened pigs dropping to 12.9 yuan/kg in the third quarter, and further reductions to 12.7 yuan/kg in September and 12.5 yuan/kg in October [1] Industry Analysis - The recent sharp decline in pig prices is attributed to several factors, including a peak in the number of breeding sows last November, effective disease control measures, and increased production efficiency, leading to a surplus of pigs in the market [1] - The company believes that the current price drop is not alarming, as the overall market supply is relatively stable, and the excess capacity must be resolved through sales, which may accelerate market clearing [1] - The industry is facing widespread losses at current prices around 11 yuan/kg, with many leading enterprises also experiencing losses, which may force weaker players to exit the market, ultimately benefiting larger, cash-rich companies in the long run [1]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The current internal and external environment is increasingly complex and severe, necessitating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. The report aligns with the Fourth Plenary Session's assessment of the economic situation, highlighting the impact of trade issues on global economic growth and the need for a consumption-driven economic model in China [4][5]. - The report indicates improvements in price operations, with both CPI and PPI showing year-on-year increases in October. It emphasizes the need for coordinated macro policies to promote reasonable price recovery, including advancing the construction of a unified national market and boosting consumption [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report outlines changes in the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system. This indicates a future focus on systematic development in monetary policy [5][6]. - The importance of stabilizing growth has been elevated, with monetary policy expected to remain "moderately loose," including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions as necessary. The report suggests that the broad fiscal or social financing will be a major support in 2026, with a need for lower financing costs for residents and enterprises [6][7]. Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - Banks are accelerating the disposal of non-performing assets, particularly real estate, due to multiple considerations including capital consumption and market risks. This strategy aims to alleviate capital pressure and supplement profits amid rising retail risks [11][12]. - The report highlights significant disparities in the scale and impairment provisions of non-performing assets among listed banks, with state-owned banks accelerating asset disposals to release capital and enhance profitability [12][13]. Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The pig farming sector is entering a destocking cycle driven by policy and market factors, with a recommendation to actively invest in leading companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods due to the sector's defensive attributes amid low prices [17][18]. - The beef cattle sector is experiencing a favorable demand cycle, with expectations of continued profitability improvements through 2027. The report suggests investing in companies within the beef cattle industry chain [18]. Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report discusses the promising results of DR10624 for treating severe hypertriglyceridemia, showing significant reductions in triglyceride levels and liver fat. The company maintains a "buy" rating based on projected net profits for 2025-2027 [30][31]. - The competitive landscape in the pharmaceutical sector is intensifying, with multiple multinational corporations targeting the FGF21 pathway, indicating a potential for differentiated market positioning for the company [31].

Core Insights - Qinghai Province has maintained the highest annual output of yak and Tibetan sheep in China for five consecutive years, with over 9 million livestock being produced annually [1] Group 1: Livestock Production - Qinghai's livestock output has remained stable at over 9 million heads annually, with yak and Tibetan sheep leading in production [1] - In 2024, Qinghai is projected to have a livestock inventory of 19.6012 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, while the output is expected to reach 9.3659 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] Group 2: Industry Transformation - The province is transitioning its livestock industry from a quantity-based model to a quality and efficiency-oriented model, supporting the establishment of 554 yak and Tibetan sheep breeding bases [1] - Qinghai has implemented production models such as "herd breeding in shelters" and "household breeding in farms," promoting practical technologies like "one calf per year" for yaks and "three births in two years" for Tibetan sheep [1] Group 3: Policy Support - Local governments have introduced reward and subsidy policies for livestock output, effectively encouraging farmers to increase their production and improve the commercialization rate of livestock [1]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯神农集团11月12日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至11月10日，公司的股东人数为 19154户。 ...