Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the U.S. economy showed signs of improvement in July after hitting a low in June, despite a rebound in the dollar index since July. The tightening of dollar liquidity and the impact of tariffs on inflation may negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, while the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to around 4.8% in the near term. However, the long-term outlook remains positive for risk assets due to potential dollar liquidity easing and fiscal support for the economy [1][2][16]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Dynamics - The dollar index reflects various factors including cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity. Its fluctuations indicate a structural bear market for the dollar amidst ongoing capital rebalancing between the U.S. and other markets [2][4]. - The dollar index has maintained strength despite the widening U.S. fiscal and trade deficits over the past two years, driven by continued capital inflows into U.S. assets underpinned by AI-related market confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index regained positive correlation with the U.S.-Germany yield spread from May, reflecting the recovery of the U.S. economy in July after a downturn from April to June [6][7]. - High-frequency data indicates that unemployment claims rose significantly from April to June, peaking at 1.95 million, corresponding to an unemployment rate of 4.3%. However, new job openings showed a recovery starting in July [9][10]. Group 3: Liquidity and Debt Issuance - The liquidity situation shifted from easing to tightening as the Treasury General Account (TGA) began releasing funds to replenish reserve accounts, with a significant increase in net debt issuance in July amounting to $308.3 billion compared to $104.9 billion from April to June [12][14]. - The Treasury is projected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [20][21]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The potential for inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, coupled with strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [16][18]. - The report suggests that if the U.S. economy remains stable with rising inflation and tightening dollar liquidity, Treasury yields are unlikely to stay low, which could adversely affect the real estate and manufacturing sectors [21][22]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The report anticipates potential adjustments in risk assets over the next couple of months due to tightening liquidity and rising inflation, particularly affecting growth sectors, while financial, real estate, and industrial sectors may remain resilient due to policy support [22]. - The long-term trend suggests that fiscal dominance may lead to renewed liquidity and continued improvement in fundamentals, maintaining an upward trajectory for the market despite short-term adjustments [22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that E Fund Management Co., Ltd. has increased its stake in China International Capital Corporation (CICC) by purchasing 926,000 shares at an average price of HKD 19.1115 per share, totaling approximately HKD 17.6972 million [1] - Following this transaction, E Fund's total shareholding in CICC has risen to 114,897,200 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 5.99% to 6.04% [1][2]

美股目前接近历史高位，强劲的企业财报和对降息的押注压过了对全面关税影响的担忧。在经济增长可能放缓的信号显现之际，投资者重新涌入科技巨 头和人工智能交易。 高盛交易员警告，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合常理"。"关键在于市场无 法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示， 尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合 常理"。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出： "关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 他认为，投资者可能会忽略 劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱投资 者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为30%，这听起来像 是一个危险信号，但全球股市仍然活跃，因为与市场势头相反的押注"几乎显得不合常理"。 Paolo Schiavone在一份报告中表示："关键点在于，市场无法看得足够远。这就是为什么它会忽视衰退 风险。"他认为，投资者可能会无视潜在的劳动力市场放缓，而是将焦点放在充裕的流动性、以及人工 智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题上。 在强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注掩盖了广泛关税影响担忧的背景下，美国股市接近历史高位。与此同 时，尽管经济增长可能正在放缓的数据信号出现，投资者仍纷纷回流科技巨头和人工智能概念板块。 掉期交易员目前预计，到2026年年中，美联储将降息逾100个基点。随着短期国债大量发行向货币市场 注入流动性，现金储备极为充裕。与此同时，自标普500指数从4月关税引发的抛售中反弹后，短线资金 已大举入市。 Paolo Schiavone表示，这些趋势跟随型投资者(CTA)现在掌控着大部分"热钱"股权流动。这导致市场出 现短视迹象，因为"他们的单一策略('让赢家跑')几乎不给基本面看空者留下空间"。他补 ...

对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不 合常理"。 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出："关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。"他认为，投资者可能会忽 略劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 这位高盛交易员表示，由于短期策略盛行且波动性受到抑制，很少有人愿意与仍然完整的上升趋势作对。他指出，市场正显现出短视的迹象，因 为趋势跟踪投资者"单一的操作手册('让赢家继续跑')为基本面看空者留下的空间很小"。 在这种环境下，Schiavone认为阻力最小的路径仍然是向上，这解释了为什么市场能够在经济衰退风险升高的背景下保持强势。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱 投资者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后大举入市。 Schia ...

Group 1: National Grid and Electricity Demand - National Grid's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.233 billion kilowatts from August 4 to 6, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.180 billion kilowatts [1] - The load is expected to remain above 1.2 billion kilowatts on August 7, with a potential decrease later in the week due to rain and cooler temperatures [1] Group 2: Gaming Laptop Market - The Chinese consumer gaming laptop market saw a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3% in Q2 2025, significantly outpacing the overall consumer PC market [1] - This growth is driven by the demand for high-performance devices from university students and core gaming enthusiasts, as well as the rapid evolution of gaming content [1] Group 3: Real Estate and Office Leasing - Adidas will establish its new Greater China headquarters in a 32,400 square meter office building in Shanghai's West Bund, expected to be completed in Q1 2026 [2] - This leasing transaction is one of the largest in Shanghai's Grade A office market in 2023 [2] Group 4: Bankruptcy and Financial Performance - Claire's, a fashion jewelry manufacturer, filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time since 2018, with estimated assets and liabilities between $1 billion and $10 billion [2] - Evergrande Real Estate Group has recently been executed for over 1.67 billion yuan, with a total of over 55.9 billion yuan in outstanding execution amounts [2] Group 5: Financial Results - Jerry Holdings reported a net profit of 1.241 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.04% [6] - Tiantan Biological's net profit for the same period was 633 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.88% [7] - Shunbo Alloy achieved a net profit of 177 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 110.56% [8] Group 6: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45% with a trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan, indicating a broad market rally with over 3,300 stocks rising [9] - PEEK material concept stocks and military stocks saw significant gains, while pharmaceutical stocks experienced a downturn [10]

Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - A 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession may seem alarming, but global stock markets remain resilient due to current market momentum, making short-selling appear illogical [1] Group 1 - The market is unable to see far enough into the future, which is why it tends to overlook recession risks [1] - Investors may be ignoring the potential slowdown in the labor market, focusing instead on strong liquidity and structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion [1]

欧洲股市回吐此前涨幅，美国股指期货小幅上涨，投资者正在评估美国总统唐纳德・特朗普最新的关税 威胁、令人失望的经济数据以及大量企业盈利报告。 斯托克欧洲 600 指数在上涨 0.4% 后变动不大，原 因是该地区一些大型企业的业绩喜忧参半。标准普尔 500 指数期货上涨约 0.3%，交易员们正等待麦当 劳和华特迪士尼等公司的盈利报告。 周二的数据显示，美国服务业表现疲软，同时物价压力居高不 下，这引发了人们对美联储政策挑战的担忧。特朗普加大了关税攻势，称他将对从俄罗斯购买能源的国 家加征关税，并很快宣布对半导体和药品进口征收关税。尽管如此，强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注目 前仍在提振股市。 XBT 研究总监凯瑟琳・布鲁克斯表示："总体而言，大西洋两岸不错的企业盈利对股 市形成支撑，这在一定程度上缓解了人们对美国经济放缓以及特朗普总统对关税的持续痴迷给全球经济 带来影响的担忧。" 美国股市接近历史高点，原因是在数据显示经济增长可能放缓之际，投资者重新涌 入科技巨头和人工智能相关交易。高盛集团宏观交易员保罗・斯基亚沃内表示，押注市场势头逆转 "几 乎显得不合理"。 瑞银财富管理首席投资官马克・黑费勒表示，任何抛售都将为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump raises concerns among economists and market participants regarding the credibility of economic data, which is crucial for monetary and fiscal policy formulation [1][3][5] Economic Data Credibility - Economists warn that the credibility of economic data is easily damaged and difficult to restore, impacting policy decisions [3][5] - The International Statistical Institute states that Trump's actions violate UN principles aimed at protecting factual statistical data, urging the government to restore public confidence [3] - Experts highlight that the disruption caused by Trump's policies, such as tariffs and immigration enforcement, complicates data collection and affects labor supply [3][5] Market Reactions - Market participants express concerns that the political nature of the BLS's leadership could undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets [7][8] - Following the news of the BLS director's dismissal, safe-haven assets like gold saw significant price increases, indicating market anxiety over the future of dollar assets [7][8] - The bond market reflects heightened concerns, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields showing increased risk premiums, suggesting investor expectations of rising inflation [8] Historical Context - Historical examples, such as Greece's debt crisis and Turkey's statistical agency leadership changes, illustrate the long-term consequences of compromised data credibility on investor trust and market stability [5][6]