Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: After the export window, carry out reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transactions improved. After the manufacturers raised the quotes, the transactions were average. Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,686 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,660 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 36 yuan/ton (+7), in Henan it was - 26 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu it was - 36 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 16, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 16, 2025, the urea production profit was 120 yuan/ton (+10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of September 16, 2025, the export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+0). September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 16, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.82% (+4.74%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 55.38% (- 3.60%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.88 days (+0.47). Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 16, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1327 million tons (+37,700 tons), and the port sample inventory was 549,400 tons (- 71,500 tons). The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

尿素：步入震荡格局，日内走势关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,686 | 1,683 | 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,691 | 1,679 | 1 2 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 129,472 | 166,237 | -36765 | | （01合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 277,334 | 284,978 | -7644 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 8,279 | 8,613 | -334 | | | | （万元） 成交额 | 437,832 | 558,324 | -120492 | | | | 山东地区基差 | -36 | -43 | 7 | | 基 | 差 | 丰 ...

Group 1 - Strategic emerging industries and future industries will be key directions for central enterprises to cultivate a second growth curve during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Chengfei Integration has identified drone fuselage manufacturing as an important new development direction, included in the company's 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Some central enterprises have set specific growth targets, with Zhenhua Technology aiming to increase the proportion of civil business to 30% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 2 - CNOOC Development is accelerating its layout in chemical new materials, expanding production capacity for DPC catalysts and functional membrane materials [3] - Digital transformation is a crucial path for central enterprises to cultivate new growth points, with China Merchants Highway planning to promote smart and green development in the toll road operation industry chain [3] - The focus on high-end resin and polyether polyol products by Shenyang Chemical aims to serve high-growth markets such as automotive seats and medical gloves [3] Group 3 - China National Materials International acknowledges challenges in integration and business transformation, aiming to enhance performance and structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - New energy storage has become a key focus for several energy central enterprises, with Zhonglv Electric prioritizing the development of new energy storage projects [4] - Hubei Energy plans to develop new businesses in inspection and testing, new energy storage technology, and hydrogen energy [4] Group 4 - Hong Sifang, a fertilizer production central enterprise under China Salt Group, will prioritize industry transformation and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - Jiangnan Chemical is focusing on the transformation of the civil explosives industry and aims to promote cross-regional and cross-ownership restructuring [5] - Zhongke Technology plans to extend its operations into the valve industry and maintenance services to achieve industrial breakthroughs [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange criticized Guolian Co., Ltd. for inaccurate financial disclosures in multiple periodic reports, involving significant amounts, and for failing to respond to regulatory letters in a timely manner [1] - The company was found to have misused raised funds, violating several regulations including the General Provisions of Financial Reporting and the Management and Use of Raised Funds [1] - The disciplinary action included a public reprimand for the company's then Chairman Liu Quan, then General Manager Qian Xiaojun, and then Chief Financial Officer Tian Tao [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Guolian Co., Ltd.'s revenue composition was as follows: Petrochemical accounted for 56.12%, Grain and Oil Trade 16.11%, Sanitary Products 13.36%, Fertilizer 7.1%, and Glass 5.6% [2] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Guolian Co., Ltd. was 23.7 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Si Er Te, is currently under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, which may lead to potential compensation claims from affected investors [3]. Group 1: Financing Activities - On September 15, Si Er Te had a financing buy-in of 7.175 million yuan, with a financing repayment of 3.619 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 3.556 million yuan. This marks a cumulative net buy of 22.022 million yuan over the past five days [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - On September 1, Si Er Te received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation into the company for suspected information disclosure violations, which could lead to legal consequences under relevant laws [3]. - Affected investors who purchased shares between April 20, 2022, and April 25, 2025, and held them until the latter date may be eligible for compensation claims [3]. Group 3: Accounting Policy Changes - On April 30, Si Er Te announced a change in accounting policies in accordance with the Ministry of Finance's new guidelines, which does not require board or shareholder approval [4]. - The company stated that the accounting policy change will not affect previously disclosed financial statements and will not have a significant impact on its financial status, operating results, or cash flows [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]

Group 1 - The national production material market prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August [1] - Coal prices rose by 1.6% month-on-month but decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with coking coal, thermal coal, and No. 2 smokeless block coal increasing by 5.1%, 1.1%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Steel prices increased by 1.2% month-on-month and decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with channel steel, ordinary medium plates, and welded steel pipes rising by 2.5%, 2.1%, and 1.9% respectively [2] Group 2 - Non-ferrous metal prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with copper and aluminum prices falling by 0.5% and 0.2%, while zinc prices rose by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices fell by 0.8% month-on-month and decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with urea prices dropping by 0.9% and compound fertilizer prices increasing by 0.2% [3] - Refined oil prices decreased by 1.3% month-on-month and fell by 7.2% year-on-year, with prices for 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline declining by 1.4%, 1.1%, and 1.0% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by fertilizer companies, particularly in the context of fluctuating urea prices and the implementation of the "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project, which aims to mitigate risks for storage enterprises through financial tools and risk management mechanisms [1][4]. Group 1: Market Challenges - Urea production is at an average daily output of 190,000 tons, with demand shrinking and exports not being opened, leading to concerns about inventory becoming a "hot potato" for storage companies [1]. - The volatility in urea prices has transformed the responsibility of storage from a duty to a high-risk burden for enterprises involved in national fertilizer reserves [2]. Group 2: "Commercial Storage Without Worries" Project - The "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project was initiated to provide financial support for storage enterprises, allowing them to hedge against price risks and effectively manage their operations [2]. - Participation in the project has grown from 5 companies to 52 over five years, indicating its success and the establishment of a risk management mechanism that covers storage costs and supports futures trading [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Financial Outcomes - The company utilized futures tools to establish short positions, successfully generating a profit of approximately 1.8 million yuan from a 200 yuan per ton price drop in the futures market, which offset the depreciation of their physical inventory [3]. - The effective use of futures as a hedging tool has allowed storage companies to stabilize their operations and protect inventory value, demonstrating a successful case of risk management in the fertilizer industry [3][4].

Core Points - The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly (617 votes in favor, 18 against) to exempt over 90% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the EU carbon border adjustment tax [1] - This tax is levied on imports based on the estimated carbon footprint of specific goods such as steel and cement, and will enter a transitional phase starting October 2023 [1] - From 2026, importers will be required to report the carbon footprint of their goods and pay duties where applicable [1] - Following the exemption from the EU border tax, SMEs will not need to report the carbon emissions associated with imports of steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, or hydrogen into the EU [1]