本文字数：1766，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2026.01. 29 周三盘后，Meta、微软和特斯拉发布最新业绩。 新年以来，随着投资者试图判断人工智能的应用将如何颠覆此前龙头企业的商业模式，大盘科技股、软件股 与芯片股内部的分化态势正持续加剧。因此这些热门赛道公司的业绩，特别是资本开支状况受到了广泛关 注。 按照日程安排，苹果周四将披露最新业绩。 Meta公布利好营收预测，盘后涨逾7% 特斯拉最新业绩超市场预期，但公司全年营收同比下滑3%，创下公司历史上首次年度营收下降的纪录，股 价在盘后交易中上涨近3%。 脸书母公司Meta盘后涨逾7%，超市场预期的销售额业绩指引提振市场情绪。公司第四财季营收598.9亿美 元，同比增长24%，市场预期 585.9 亿美元。调整后每股收益EPS 8.88 美元，预期8.23美元。 Meta预计一季度营收将在535亿至565亿美元区间，高于分析师514.1亿美元的预期值。 此外，2026年全年总支出将在1620亿至1690亿美元之间；为推进人工智能业务的资本支出预计在1150亿至 1350亿美元区间，不仅高于分析师1107亿美元的全年预期，也是202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock drop of over 8% following the release of its Q2 fiscal report, which revealed record-high spending and a slowdown in cloud business growth, raising investor concerns about the return on AI investments taking longer than expected [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2025, Microsoft reported revenues of $81.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The net profit was $38.46 billion, with earnings per share at $5.16, up from $24.11 billion (earnings per share of $3.23) in the same period last year [4]. - Capital expenditures reached $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-on-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $36.2 billion [4]. - The Azure cloud computing segment's revenue grew by 38% year-on-year, but this growth rate slowed compared to the previous quarter. Analysts had anticipated growth rates of 39.4% and 38.9% for this segment [4]. Cloud Business Insights - Microsoft's commercial remaining performance obligations reached $625 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 110%, largely due to a $250 billion cloud services agreement with OpenAI. About 45% of these obligations are related to OpenAI [5]. - The slowdown in Azure's growth has led to investor disappointment, particularly among those who had high expectations for cloud performance [6][7]. Investor Sentiment - Concerns have arisen regarding the sustainability of AI demand and the profitability of large-scale investments in data centers by Microsoft and other tech giants. Investors are particularly focused on whether Azure's growth can outpace spending growth to justify current investment levels [7].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong financial results for Q2 FY2026, exceeding Wall Street expectations, but concerns over slowing Azure growth and record capital expenditures led to a significant drop in stock price after hours [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter ending December 31, Microsoft achieved revenue of $81.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 17%, surpassing the market expectation of $80.3 billion [2]. - Net profit reached $38.46 billion, translating to earnings per share of $5.16, significantly above the expected $3.92 [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $4.14, also exceeding forecasts [2]. - A notable portion of the profit increase was attributed to changes in accounting treatment for the investment in OpenAI, contributing an additional $1.02 to earnings per share [2]. Cloud Business Performance - Microsoft's "Intelligent Cloud" segment, including Azure, generated revenue of $32.91 billion, a nearly 29% year-over-year increase, slightly above expectations [3]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 38% year-over-year at constant currency, matching analyst predictions, but the growth rate slowed by one percentage point compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Despite the overall cloud revenue surpassing $50 billion for the first time at $51.5 billion, the deceleration in Azure's growth raised concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven cloud growth [3]. Capital Expenditures and AI Investment - Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $36.2 billion [4]. - Approximately two-thirds of this expenditure was allocated to computing chips for data centers to meet AI demand [4]. - CEO Satya Nadella noted an increase of nearly 1 gigawatt in computing capacity during the quarter, but the significant investment raised questions about the return on AI investments [4]. - The "remaining performance obligations" (RPO), indicating future revenue from signed contracts, reached a record $625 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with 45% of this amount linked to agreements with OpenAI [4][5]. Competitive Landscape and Stock Performance - Microsoft is the first among major cloud service companies to report quarterly financial results, serving as a key indicator of the efficiency of AI investments among tech giants [7]. - In contrast to Microsoft's stock decline, Meta's stock rose significantly after announcing increased AI spending, highlighting differing market perceptions of AI strategies [7]. - The emergence of competitors like Google's Gemini model and Anthropic is intensifying pressure on Microsoft's AI and traditional software businesses [7]. - As of the close on Wednesday, Microsoft's stock was priced at $481.63, experiencing a drop of over 7% in after-hours trading, and a decline of approximately 11% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 1% during the same period [7].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong financial results for Q2 of FY2026, with revenue and profit exceeding Wall Street expectations. However, concerns over slowing growth in Azure cloud services and significant capital expenditures related to AI investments led to a sharp decline in its stock price post-announcement [1]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter ending December 31, Microsoft achieved revenue of $81.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 17%, surpassing the market expectation of $80.3 billion. Net profit reached $38.46 billion, translating to earnings per share of $5.16, significantly exceeding the expected $3.92. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.14, also above forecasts. Notably, the surge in net profit was partly due to changes in accounting treatment for investments in OpenAI, contributing an additional $1.02 to earnings per share [2]. Cloud Business Performance - Microsoft's "Intelligent Cloud" segment, including Azure, generated revenue of $32.91 billion, a nearly 29% year-over-year increase, slightly above expectations. However, the growth rate of Azure and other cloud services, which increased by 38% year-over-year at constant currency, showed a deceleration of one percentage point compared to the previous quarter. This slowdown raised concerns among investors betting on stronger cloud performance [3]. Capital Expenditures and AI Investment Concerns - Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $36.2 billion. Approximately two-thirds of this expenditure was allocated to computing chips for data centers to meet AI demands. CEO Satya Nadella noted an increase of nearly 1 gigawatt in computing capacity during the quarter. Despite significant investments, the company faces challenges in rapidly expanding sufficient computing capacity to meet demand [4]. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) - The remaining performance obligations (RPO), representing future revenue under contract but not yet recognized, reached a record $625 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. This figure surpassed Oracle's reported $523 billion. However, 45% of Microsoft's RPO is tied to agreements with OpenAI, highlighting the company's deep reliance on this AI startup [4][5]. Other Business Segments - The Productivity and Business Processes segment, which includes Office, Dynamics, and LinkedIn, generated revenue of $34.12 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations. Microsoft also reported that its AI assistant, Microsoft 365 Copilot, has gained 15 million commercial user seats, indicating initial adoption momentum. Conversely, the More Personal Computing segment, which includes Windows, Xbox, Surface, and Bing, saw revenue decline by approximately 3% year-over-year to $14.25 billion, slightly below expectations, with gaming revenue down 9.5% [6]. Industry Competition and Stock Pressure - Microsoft is the first of the three major cloud service companies to report quarterly financial results, serving as a key indicator of the efficiency of AI investments among tech giants. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are expected to collectively spend over $500 billion on AI this year. In contrast to Microsoft's post-earnings stock decline, Meta's stock surged following its announcement of increased AI spending, reflecting differing market expectations regarding AI strategies. Analysts noted that Microsoft's stock performance is closely tied to OpenAI's outcomes, particularly amid competition from Google's Gemini model and other emerging competitors [7].

苹果周四将发布业绩。 周三盘后，Meta、微软和特斯拉发布最新业绩。 微软发布第二财季财报显示，营收812.7亿美元，同比增长17%，市场预期802.7亿美元，净利润384.6亿 美元，合每股收益EPS 5.16 美元，较去年同期241.1 亿美元（合每股收益3.23 美元）大幅增长。 微软盘后股价跌近7%。微软智能云业务板块（含 Azure 云基础设施）营收达329.1亿美元，同比增长近 29%，略好于市场预期，不过Azure 云服务及其他云业务营收同比增长39%，而该业务在财年第一季度 的同比增速为40%。生产力和商业流程业务板块营收341.2亿美元，同比增长约16%，个人计算业务板块 营收142.5亿美元，同比下跌约3%。 新年以来，随着投资者试图判断人工智能的应用将如何颠覆此前龙头企业的商业模式，大盘科技股、软 件股与芯片股内部的分化态势正持续加剧。因此这些热门赛道公司的业绩，特别是资本开支状况受到了 广泛关注。 按照日程安排，苹果周四将披露最新业绩。 Meta公布利好营收预测，盘后涨逾7% 脸书母公司Meta盘后涨逾7%，超市场预期的销售额业绩指引提振市场情绪。公司第四财季营收598.9亿 美元，同 ...

►►上海期货交易所发布公告，再次对黄金、白银等期货涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金比例进行调整，其中，镍期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为11%， 套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%；氧化铝、铅、锌期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证 金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%；不锈钢、铸造铝合金、螺纹钢、热轧卷板期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交 易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%；黄金期货AU2606、AU2608、AU2610、AU2612、AU2702合约涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套 保持仓交易保证金比例调整为17%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%；白银期货AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、 AG2612、AG2701合约涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为17%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%。 上海黄金交易所于同日发布公告，对白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整，自2026年1月30日（星期五）收盘清 ...

今日关注 美联储宣布维持基准利率不变。 现货黄金站上5400美元/盎司。 6．当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 微软、特斯拉、Meta最新财报公布。 中国商火：坚决打赢主力箭首飞及回收攻坚战，全力突破可重复使用技术。 重要的消息有哪些 1．上期所发布通知，自2026年1月30日（星期五）收盘结算时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比 例调整如下：镍期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为11%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 12%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%；氧化铝、铅、锌期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调 整为9%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%；不锈钢、 铸造铝合金、螺纹钢、热轧卷板期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金 比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%；黄金期货AU2606、AU2608、AU2610、 AU2612、AU2702合约涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为17%，一般持 仓交易保证金比 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [2] - Following the Fed's decision, precious metals saw significant price increases, with London gold reaching a new high of $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising over 10% [1][8] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.17% [2] Group 2 - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with the Tech Giants Index up by 0.19%. Nvidia rose by 1.59%, while Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla experienced declines [4] - Microsoft reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $81.27 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $80.31 billion, but its stock fell over 7% post-announcement [4] - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue reached $59.89 billion, surpassing market estimates of $58.42 billion, leading to a post-announcement stock increase of over 10% [5] - Tesla's Q4 2025 revenue was $24.901 billion, slightly above market expectations, resulting in a stock increase of over 3% [6] Group 3 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.32%, and the Chinese tech leaders index increased by 0.63%, with BYD ADR up over 2% and Alibaba, NetEase, and Xiaomi ADRs rising over 1% [7] Group 4 - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for March delivery rising by $0.82 to $63.21 per barrel, a 1.31% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.83 to $68.40 per barrel, a 1.23% increase [10]

Group 1 - The employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) of the company will expire on July 29, 2026, with a total duration of 48 months starting from the last transfer of shares to the ESOP account on July 30, 2022 [3][6] - The ESOP was approved during the board and shareholder meetings held in July 2022, allowing the company to implement the plan [1][2] - As of January 28, 2026, the ESOP holds 772,650 shares, representing 0.0408% of the company's total share capital [3] Group 2 - The ESOP shares will be unlocked in three phases: 30% after 12 months, 30% after 24 months, and 40% after 36 months from the last transfer date [2] - If the shares are not fully sold or transferred 15 days before the expiration of the ESOP, the duration can be extended with the approval of two-thirds of the participating holders [4][5] - The ESOP can be terminated early if all shares are sold before the expiration date, or if the holders approve an extension [5]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported a significant increase in capital expenditures and a slowdown in cloud business sales growth, raising investor concerns about the time required for its substantial investments in artificial intelligence to yield results, leading to a post-earnings stock price drop of approximately 5% [1][3]. Financial Highlights - Revenue for Q2 reached $81.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17%, exceeding analyst expectations of $80.31 billion [5]. - Operating income was $38.3 billion, reflecting a 21% year-over-year growth [6]. - Net income, according to GAAP, was $38.5 billion, up 60% year-over-year; on a non-GAAP basis, net income was $30.9 billion, a 23% increase [6]. - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) under GAAP was $5.16, a 60% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.92; on a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS was $4.14, a 24% increase [7]. Capital Expenditures and Cloud Business - Capital expenditures for Q2 reached a record high of $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations of $36.2 billion [7]. - Cloud business revenue was $51.5 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase; on a constant currency basis, it grew by 24% [8]. - The commercial remaining performance obligations grew by 110% year-over-year, reaching $625 billion [7]. Business Segment Performance - Productivity and Business Processes segment revenue was $34.1 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [8]. - Intelligent Cloud segment revenue was $32.9 billion, a 29% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations [8]. - More Personal Computing segment revenue was $14.3 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline [9]. AI and Future Outlook - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated that the company is in the early stages of AI proliferation, with AI business now larger than some of its traditional businesses [9]. - Microsoft’s cloud business surpassed $50 billion in revenue, reflecting strong market demand for its service portfolio [9]. - The company anticipates that customer commitments, which are expected to convert into actual sales, have more than doubled compared to the same period last year, largely due to a new $250 billion agreement with OpenAI [12].