编者按：2025 年 8 月 7 日，摩根大通发布《中国互联网 2025 年二季度前瞻》报告，聚焦消费互联网公司盈利下调是否见底、资金是否从数字娱 乐龙头向消费互联网轮换等核心问题。以下是报告核心内容解读： 一、财报季焦点：消费互联网盈利下调是否终结？ 2025 年二季度财报季的核心看点，在于消费互联网公司（阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多、携程等）的盈利下调是否已结束 —— 这将决定投资者是继 续持有数字娱乐龙头（腾讯、网易、腾讯音乐、快手），还是转回消费互联网赛道。 过去三个月，消费互联网股平均股价下跌 5%（同期 KWEB 指数上涨 4%），而数字娱乐龙头平均股价大涨 31%。这种分化主要源于消费互联网 企业的密集投资与竞争：过去三个月，2025 年彭博一致预期调整后每股收益（adj EPS）平均下调 20%，资金随之转向数字娱乐板块。 因此，投资者需重点关注消费互联网公司管理层对 "竞争 / 投资强度" 的表态，以及未来 1-2 季度的财务指引。摩根大通当前行业首选标的为：腾 讯音乐（TME）> 快手 > 阿里巴巴 > 携程 > 腾讯。 二、该从数字娱乐 "回流" 消费互联网吗？ 虽然尚无确凿证据表明消费互联网 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat as of midday on June 26, with the Hong Kong consumer sector experiencing continued fluctuations [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that it will issue the third batch of subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods in July, emphasizing a focus on sustainability and balance in the implementation of the policy throughout the year [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the 300 billion yuan subsidy for the replacement program represents approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods for the year 2024, potentially boosting the growth rate of retail sales by about 1 percentage point if certain conditions are met [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities highlighted that the issuance of guidelines for financial support to boost and expand consumption provides strong backing for the investment value of the consumer sector, with a focus on enhancing credit support and diversifying financing channels [1] - Popular ETFs related to the consumer sector include the Food and Beverage ETF (515170), which focuses on core assets in the food and beverage sector, and the Consumption 30 ETF (510630), which covers various sub-sectors such as liquor, food, beauty care, and biotechnology [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights China's extraordinary economic transformation over the past two decades, which has lifted millions out of poverty and established a prosperous middle-income group, positioning China as a global economic powerhouse [1] - McKinsey Global Institute defines "arena" as vibrant, high-growth industries that reshape the global economy through significant innovation, competition, and value creation, analyzing 12 sectors that experienced super-scale growth from 2005 to 2020, including e-commerce, biomedicine, electric vehicles, and internet consumption [1][2] - Chinese companies have successfully entered global markets in sectors like electric vehicles, personal computers, and e-commerce, driven by a large domestic market, a strong manufacturing base, supportive national policies, and an encouraging entrepreneurial environment [1] Group 2 - The research anticipates that future arenas could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenue and $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040, with China already achieving success in several of these areas [2] - Chinese companies are major players in e-commerce and AI services, leveraging innovations in data analytics and supply chain efficiency to compete globally, with established firms integrating generative AI into personalized education, short video creation, and enterprise software [2] - Progress in electric vehicles, battery technology, and robotics positions China well for future growth, indicating a solid foundation for economic value creation and innovation [2][4] Group 3 - China's economic development has relied on its ability to seize opportunities in high-growth sectors, and it is well-prepared to thrive as the world transitions to new transformative industries [4] - The article notes that China faces a complex global environment characterized by changing geopolitical dynamics, evolving trade relations, and intensified competition in technology and innovation [4] - The next chapter of China's economic story is poised to be written, with significant and exciting opportunities ahead [4]