Group 1: Core Insights - The focus of the Q2 2025 earnings season is whether the profit downgrades for consumer internet companies (Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Ctrip) have ended, which will influence investor decisions between digital entertainment leaders and consumer internet stocks [1][2] - Over the past three months, consumer internet stocks have seen an average price decline of 5%, while digital entertainment leaders have experienced a 31% increase, driven by intense competition and investment in the consumer internet sector [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's current preferred stocks in the industry are Tencent Music (TME), Kuaishou, Alibaba, Ctrip, and Tencent [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is no conclusive evidence that profit downgrades for consumer internet companies have ended, but Morgan Stanley believes selectively shifting from digital entertainment to consumer internet offers a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][3] - The investment intensity in the takeaway and instant retail sectors is expected to peak in Q3 2025, with a gradual easing of investment thereafter [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba holds a competitive advantage in the market, while Meituan faces pressure due to a significant disparity in financial strength [5] - Meituan is projected to capture approximately 80% of industry revenue and 99% of industry profits in 2024, but new competition may lead to a decline in its revenue and profit share [5] Group 4: Stock Price Drivers - The narrative driving stock prices for some internet companies has shifted this year, with Alibaba focusing on cloud computing and AI, and Tencent Music transitioning to an ARPU-driven model [6] - Alibaba's cloud business is expected to be a core driver of revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [6] Group 5: AI Capital Expenditure - AI capital expenditure growth is expected to slow down but remain high, with Tencent's AI-related capital expenditure projected to increase by 152% in 2024, followed by a decrease to 25% and 20% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][10] - Alibaba plans to invest at least 380 billion yuan over three years starting March 2025, with AI capital expenditure expected to account for 65% of its total capital expenditure in the 2026 fiscal year [10] Group 6: Earnings Outlook - The investment intensity in takeaway and instant retail has peaked, with a 20% average downgrade in profit expectations for consumer internet companies over the past three months [12] - Major companies are expected to report varying earnings, with Tencent projected to have total revenue of 182 billion yuan and Alibaba expected to report 248 billion yuan [13][16] Group 7: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite a 20% downgrade in profit expectations for consumer internet companies, their average stock price has only declined by 4%, indicating potential for valuation recovery if profit downgrades have indeed bottomed out [17] - The digital entertainment sector has seen a 66% average stock price increase year-to-date, despite only a 3% upward adjustment in profit expectations, suggesting that short-term preferences are driving market behavior [17]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a phase adjustment in Q3, primarily due to the lagging impact of tariffs and the fluctuating policies of the Federal Reserve. However, the current bull market is not expected to end, with adjustments seen as opportunities for investment rather than a market termination [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Since the low in April, the S&P 500 index has rebounded over 26%. As Q3 approaches, concerns arise from weak non-farm employment data and inflation worries due to tariffs, leading to market uncertainty about the continuation of the bull market [3][4]. Bull Market Logic - The bull market's foundation is rooted in a V-shaped recovery of earnings revision breadth (ERB), which has rebounded from -25% in April to +10% currently. This indicator is crucial for confirming market bottoms and has historically led earnings surprise data [6]. Tariff Impact and Federal Reserve Policy - The impact of tariffs is expected to reflect in corporate earnings reports in Q3, particularly affecting consumer goods sectors with weak pricing power, while industrial firms that can pass on costs will be less affected. Labor market data adds to policy uncertainty, with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [9]. Earnings Growth and Fed Policy Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the outlook for the next 12 months remains bullish, supported by three main factors: increased certainty in earnings growth, with consensus predicting a 9% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 and 14% in 2026; the eventual shift in Fed policy towards rate cuts; and resilience in valuations and liquidity, with the S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio remaining at reasonable levels [10].

"盈利修正广度正在爆发，"威尔逊说，"企业在应对关税方面很有一套，这一点无可否认。" 曾是华尔街最坚定空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，美股牛市正 在形成，但标普500指数本季度可能先遭遇一波冲击。 他认为，受美国总统特朗普贸易政策对企业资产负债表的影响，美股本季度可能下跌5%-10%。但这一下跌 将是短暂的，会为投资者提供一个极具吸引力的入场点——最终，企业盈利增长预期的改善将推动股市上 涨。 "这就是新一轮牛市初期的样子，"威尔逊周四在接受彭博社《Surveillance》采访时说，"它的爆发力很强，不 会给人太多入场机会。变化速度超出预期，正在加速。" 他补充道，任何回调都将"时间短、幅度浅"，而且他"绝对会"在回调时买入。 标普500指数周四再创历史新高，其反弹之惊人，以至于市值在短短几个月内就增加了约11.5万亿美元。4月 初，特朗普对全球贸易伙伴加征全面关税后，该指数一度濒临熊市；一周后，他决定暂停关税，点燃了这波 最新的市场热情。 在市场波动期间，威尔逊是少数几位对美股保持乐观的华尔街预测人士之一。他的许多同行曾迅速下调展 望，但随着市场反弹至新高 ...

下一步关注技术阻力位Michael Wilson认为，目前标普500指数已经突破了此前的阻力位5500点，并重新 回到了关税宣布之前的5500-6100点区间。他认为，更重要的上行空间将取决于与贸易协议以及盈利修 正的重新加速。策略师们表示： 然而，后两个因素尚未实现。上周，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了央行在放松货币政策上的"观望"态度，而 十年期国债收益率目前已超过4.4%。摩根士丹利认为，十年期国债收益率超过4.5%将对估值构成阻 力。 此前，由于担心全球贸易战，标普500指数自2月份的高点下跌了近19%。但随着美国政府开始与合作伙 伴进行贸易谈判，该指数已经收复了约一半的跌幅。 商务部周一下午宣布，中美各取消了共计91%的加征关税，暂停实施24%的反制关税。中美两国同意暂 时降低彼此商品的关税，这一举措为双方提供了三个月的时间来解决分歧，推动了标普500指数期货上 涨，风险资产也随之上涨。 摩根士丹利的研究显示，在财报季期间，关税问题一直是企业关注的焦点，在财报电话会议中被提及的 次数创下了纪录。大约30家公司由于关税的不确定性而撤回或暂停了业绩指引，尤其是在汽车、耐用品 和工业等行业。尽管如此，策略师们指出 ...

以下文章来源于英为财情Investing ，作者Investing.com 英为财情Investing . 全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包 括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。 他认为，从历史经验看， 这种负面修正「通常伴随市盈率（P/E）收缩」，料会打击股市表现， 阻碍近期反弹。 「 这两个因素可能在未来数月拖累股市，令技术性超卖反弹难以持续。 」Matejka解释。 虽然首季预期已足够保守，但焦点或转向企业在贸易政策不明朗下的前景指引。Matejka认为， 相比业绩本身， 前景指引或会逊色得多 ， 企业可能借机下调展望。 此外，首季经济动力减弱，环球采购经理指数（PMI）疲软，新订单与存货比率下降，均显示企 业对前景更趋审慎。 经最近下调预测后，标指首季盈利预计按季跌8%，远超一般1%的季节性跌幅。 美股盈利按年仅升1%，撇除七大科技股更只升3%，延续「近三年盈利增长仅个位数」的趋势。 Matejka预期，周期股及出口股的前景指引最令人担忧，建议投资者转投防守性板块避险，尤其 在 ...