Group 1 - The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a key economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment growth outside the agricultural sector [3][4] - NFP data significantly influences traditional financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, and is increasingly impacting the cryptocurrency market [4][22] - The relationship between NFP data and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is becoming more pronounced, as these assets are now viewed similarly to risk assets and gold [4][22] Group 2 - Strong NFP data typically leads to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which can pressure risk assets like BTC, while weak data may enhance expectations for rate cuts, benefiting these assets [7][8] - The correlation between NFP data and cryptocurrency prices is evident, with altcoins often experiencing more volatility than BTC due to lower liquidity [8][5] - The increasing participation of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market is tying BTC and ETH prices more closely to macroeconomic indicators [4][22] Group 3 - In August, BTC experienced a pullback, testing a critical support level of $112,000, with expectations of a subsequent upward trend aligned with potential rate cuts in September [17][19] - ETH also faced a decline but is expected to test higher resistance levels, with significant trading volume indicating strong market interest from institutional investors [19][22] - The upcoming NFP data release is anticipated to influence both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these financial ecosystems [21][22]

上周的最大事件不是以伊冲突，而是稳定币发行商Circle上市和股价暴涨触发的稳定币生态圈爆发。 以色列和伊朗相互攻击，中东局势紧张，WTI原油价格再涨10%。美国、英国和日本央行均决定维持政 策利率水平不变，不过日本银行公告明年放缓削减购债规模的步伐。地缘政治局势不稳，上周全球多数 股市走弱。美联储降息机会增加，美债全线上涨。日本财务省调整发债结构，日债走强。黄金白银高位 整固，美元汇率略强。 美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）作出了一致的政策决定，但也展现出罕见的分歧。美联储预测今年 经济增长1.4%，远远低过去年的增长数字和上次的预测。失业率从现在的4.2%走向年底的4.5%，通货 膨胀由4月的2.1%上调至3%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，"在此一刻，我们等待了解经济未来走向，然后再考虑调整政策立 场"。"在此一刻"四字耐人寻味。会后发布的点阵图显示，FOMC成员预期中位数为今年会有两次降 息，其中10人预期两次降息，7人认为今年不必降息，2人估计今年降一次。决策者对通胀走势并无共 识，他们达成的共识仅是6月份暂时不降息。 FOMC会议后第二天，美联储理事沃勒在采访中表示，夏季就应该降息，"政策应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 4.25%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and concerns over inflation and global geopolitical tensions [1][3][10] Economic Environment - The UK economy is facing a complex situation with a weakening job market and slowing wage growth, yet inflation remains above the Bank's target of 2% [3][4] - Global factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tech decoupling are impacting the UK's economic landscape, making it more challenging for the Bank to adjust interest rates [6][7] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current stance of the Bank of England is characterized as a "tactical wait," as inflation has not sufficiently decreased, and there are risks associated with lowering rates too quickly [3][4] - The Bank's decision to keep rates steady is seen as a strategy to control inflation expectations and avoid triggering a new wave of inflation or asset bubbles [4][6] Structural Economic Issues - The UK economy is losing growth drivers, with diminishing contributions from traditional sectors like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors are lagging behind competitors [7][9] - The government's limited fiscal space and reliance on the Bank's monetary policy for economic stimulus further complicate the situation [7][9] Market Expectations - Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential rate cuts, but the Bank of England is entering a "cautious easing" phase, where minor adjustments may not yield significant effects [9][10] - The upcoming months will be critical for assessing the Bank's ability to navigate economic challenges and maintain policy independence amid external pressures [10]