ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 12 日 证券研究报告•宏观深度报告 宏观深度 新经济时代的"动态革新" ——我国产业升级的赋能机制研究 摘要 西南证券研究院 、 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 联系人：徐小然 邮箱：xuxr@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary] 理论框架："新经济"重视技术和知识产权。该概念最早出现在 2016 年中国 《政府工作报告》中，主张发展高技术产业和现代服务业等新兴产业。从理论 看，索洛模型认为经济处于稳态时，人均产出增长只能由外生技术进步所驱动。 而内生增长理论认为，由于知识、技术创新等要素具有正外部性，且存在规模 报酬递增现象，由此可实现内生的持续增长，打破了资本边际收益递减的假设。 实证检验：技术创新、数字经济与高质量 ...

据泰媒报道，尽管2026年泰国整体经济前景仍面临压力，但数字经济的持续增长有望发挥重要支撑作 用。True集团首席执行官西格维.布雷克指出，越来越多泰国消费者积极采用数字技术，从线上购物到 无现金支付，推动数字生活方式加速普及。预计泰国数字支付市场规模将在2025年突破86亿美元，成为 东南亚增长最快的市场之一。人工智能应用快速扩张，约75%的泰国民众已使用ChatGPT等工具，显示 出强劲的技术接受度。布雷克认为，当前转型仍以消费者驱动为主，企业需加快数字化、云计算和AI 布局，以在不确定的经济环境中提升生产力和竞争力。 ...

站在2026年的门槛回望，2025年已成为全球产业深刻调整的序章。 这一年，地缘冲突与贸易摩擦持续扰动供应链；人工智能加速融入千行百业，引发效率革命与对AI监管的讨论；能源转型在争议中缓慢推进，清洁技术 投资与化石能源需求不断拉锯……这些从2025年延展而来的动能与挑战，正为2026年的产业变局铺就底色。 2026年全球汽车市场预计呈现复杂图景。商用车销售因整体市场疲软而增长缓慢，但得益于电动车需求拉动，新车总销量预计仍将增长2.5%。其中电动 车销量预计增长15%至2400万辆，中国将继续占据全球一半以上份额。 与此同时，随着美国降低对电动车的政策支持，部分车企开始调整电动化步伐。奥迪将推迟停产燃油车，阿斯顿·马丁延后推出首款电动车，本田也取消 在美国生产电动SUV的计划，预计美国电动车销量增速将放缓至2%。 为应对关税和贸易壁垒，汽车制造商将调整战略。大众和通用汽车将扩大其美国产能；中国电动车企则会在巴西、匈牙利等地增加出口；欧洲虽将推迟排 放罚款，但会加强安全标准，同时中国车型涌入预计将推动当地电动车销量增长18%并拉低售价。 2026年全球国防开支预计将达到2.9万亿美元（约合20.4万亿人民币）的历 ...

当国内市场增长渐趋平缓，越来越多的中国企业将目光投向海外，开启全球化征程。这股"出海潮"背后，是企业寻求突破与增长的深层逻辑，交织着广阔的 机遇与严峻的挑战。 出海之旅充满诱人机遇。一方面，新兴市场消费潜力巨大。东南亚、中东、拉美等地区的中产阶级迅速扩张，数字化进程加快，对中国成熟的消费互联网模 式、高性价比的工业品及基础设施解决方案有着强烈需求。另一方面，产业链协同优势凸显。中国完备的制造业体系与供应链能力，使得企业能够以较高效 率响应全球需求，尤其在新能源、数字经济等优势领域，具备输出整体解决方案的能力。此外，技术创新带来新可能。跨境电商、数字支付等工具降低了跨 境贸易门槛，使中小企业也能参与全球竞争。 风浪之险：航行途中必经的考验 然而，蓝海之下暗流涌动。首要挑战是跨文化管理与合规风险。各国法律体系、商业惯例、劳工标准、宗教信仰与文化差异巨大，稍有不慎便可能引发冲突 或遭遇处罚。其次，本土化竞争与供应链重构压力。企业需应对当地竞争对手，并建立稳定可靠的本地供应链，物流成本与复杂性显著增加。再者，地缘政 治与经济波动带来不确定性。国际贸易摩擦、汇率剧烈波动、地区冲突等都可能对海外业务造成冲击。最后，高端品 ...

数字经济以数据作为关键生产要素，通过数字技术的广泛应用，实现产业转型升级和资源优化配置。它 以网络化、智能化为主要特征，给经济发展带来巨大变革，已经成为当今社会经济增长的核心关键力 量，不仅是推动经济高质量发展的新引擎，也是提升国家竞争力的重要保障。 数字经济涵盖了数字产业化和产业数字化两个主要方面，二者共同成为数字金融发展基础。数字产业化 指的是数字经济核心产业，即依赖于数字技术、数据要素的各类经济活动。在数字产业化领域，以5G 基站、数据中心、蜂窝物联网、千兆光纤宽带、工业互联网、IPv6 等为核心的新型基础设施持续夯 实，基本建成全球规模最大、技术领先、性能优越的数字新型基础设施体系，整体能力实现跨越式跃 升；以芯片、集成电路、屏幕、内存、电池、存储硬件等为主要内容的硬件产业制造能力和创新能力不 断增强，从制造到应用的场景与数字化结合越发紧密；以AI（人工智能）、云计算、大数据、物联 网、区块链、传感器等为主要内容的技术产业数字科技创新能力不断增强，应用场景不断拓宽，创新成 果不断涌现；以数据挖掘、数据采集、数据整理、数据存储、数据流通、数据确权、数据分析和应用等 为主要内容的数据产业正在不断壮大，数据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" as China transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The conference highlights the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver," "innovation-driven development," and "opening up to the outside world" as key tasks for economic growth [1] Group 2 - China is constructing a domestic demand-driven growth system, which provides stable and diverse market opportunities for Central Asian countries, with a focus on boosting consumption and increasing residents' income [2] - In the first five months of this year, trade between China and the five Central Asian countries reached 286.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with imports from these countries growing by 21% [2] Group 3 - The conference underscores the significance of innovation as the primary driving force for development, aligning with Central Asian countries' needs for industrial upgrading and digital transformation [4] - Cooperation in areas such as smart agriculture, digital payments, 5G communication, and smart cities is flourishing, promoting digital upgrades in local industries [4] Group 4 - China is committed to opening up and promoting win-win cooperation across multiple fields, establishing a solid institutional guarantee for China-Central Asia cooperation [7] - By June 2025, China's investment in Central Asian countries is expected to exceed 30 billion USD, with completed contract revenues in engineering projects reaching 75.6 billion USD, covering various sectors including energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and digital economy [7]

Core Insights - Walmart is migrating from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq, marking the largest exchange migration in U.S. history, which has garnered global attention [1] - The move reflects Walmart's strategy to align itself with high-tech narratives, as it aims to present itself as a company that integrates traditional retail with AI automation [1][3] - This transition is expected to enhance Walmart's valuation and attract passive investment funds by potentially including it in the Nasdaq-100 index [1][3] Company Strategy - Walmart has historically been viewed as a traditional retail giant, but it is now emphasizing its investments in automation and AI to reshape its image [3][5] - The company aims to position itself as a direct competitor to Amazon rather than other discount retailers like Costco or Target, indicating a shift in retail paradigms where technology is becoming more critical than store count [5][6] - In its third-quarter earnings call, Walmart reported that over 60% of its goods are transported through automated distribution centers, and more than 40% of new software code is generated or assisted by AI [5][6] Market Implications - The migration to Nasdaq is seen as a strategic move to signal to traders and investors that Walmart is a serious competitor in the tech-driven retail space [3][5] - By joining Nasdaq, Walmart is expected to attract more passive capital and enhance its brand as a "tech retail" entity, aligning itself with other tech giants [6] - The cost of listing on Nasdaq is generally lower than on the NYSE, which aligns with Walmart's cost-saving ethos, even if the financial impact is minimal for such a large company [6]

Core Insights - Ghana's digital payment transaction volume reached 350 million in a single quarter, maintaining its leading position in Africa [1] - The growth is attributed to the widespread adoption of mobile payments, advancements in fintech, and increased consumer trust in digital channels [1] Group 1: Digital Payment Growth - Ghana is transitioning from a cash-based economy to a cash-light economy [1] - The average monthly digital payment volume in Ghana is 27 billion cedis, equivalent to the total annual salaries of teachers and healthcare workers nationwide [1] Group 2: Security and Regulation - The Central Bank of Ghana, in collaboration with Visa, announced the achievements at the 2025 Accra Payment Industry Cybersecurity Summit [1] - The Central Bank's Information Security Deputy Director emphasized the need for enhanced risk management alongside innovation [1] - The Central Bank plans to introduce a new cybersecurity directive to expand the coverage of financial security operations and promote the implementation of international security standards across the industry [1]

Core Insights - South Africa is signaling new cooperation opportunities to global investors, particularly from China, in the context of global green transition and supply chain restructuring [1][2] - The South African Investment Conference held in Beijing emphasized the potential for collaboration in renewable energy, fintech, and agri-tech, highlighting the urgency for early participation [1][5] Renewable Energy - South Africa is actively promoting investments in renewable energy, including hydrogen, solar, and wind energy projects, creating ample opportunities for external investors [4][5] - The urgency for investment in renewable energy is underscored, with the potential for significant mutual benefits for both South Africa and China [5] Financial Services - The financial services sector in South Africa is mature and well-developed, presenting new growth opportunities, particularly in fintech [5] - South Africa encourages Chinese enterprises to engage in digital banking, payments, credit, and blockchain collaborations [5] Agriculture - Agriculture remains a crucial economic pillar for South Africa, with increasing opportunities for investment and collaboration in agri-tech [5] - The opening of the Chinese market has facilitated the entry of more South African products, enhancing bilateral agricultural cooperation [5] Key Mineral Resources - South Africa possesses abundant "critical minerals" essential for battery and renewable energy industries, ranking fifth globally in mining GDP contribution [2][8] - The country produces nearly 60% of the world's platinum group metals, providing a significant resource base for potential investors [2] Strategic Positioning - South Africa serves as a strategic gateway for Chinese investors looking to enter the African market, leveraging its industrialization and financial infrastructure [2][7] - The upcoming G20 summit in South Africa is expected to enhance the country's role in attracting high-quality investments and promoting sustainable development [2][6] Youth and Talent - South Africa has a relatively young population, which is adaptable to new technologies, providing a dynamic labor force for future industries [9] - The country’s industrial base and financial services support innovation, creating a conducive environment for technology-driven investments [9]

Core Insights - Mogo Inc. is a digital wealth and payments company set to release its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 7, 2025, and is recognized for its innovative approach in the fintech sector, particularly in digital payments and cryptocurrency [1] Financial Performance - Wall Street analysts project Mogo's earnings per share to be -$0.05, with estimated revenue around $16.08 million, indicating a year-over-year revenue decline [2][6] - Mogo's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 12.73, reflecting the market's valuation of its earnings [3][6] - The price-to-sales ratio is about 0.72, showing how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of sales [3] Valuation Metrics - The enterprise value to sales ratio is around 1.79, indicating Mogo's total valuation relative to its sales [4] - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 35.11, providing insight into the company's cash flow efficiency [4] - Mogo's earnings yield stands at 7.85%, suggesting a return on investment relative to its share price [4] Financial Health - Mogo's financial leverage is indicated by a debt-to-equity ratio of about 1.02, suggesting a balanced approach to financing [5][6] - The current ratio is approximately 1.57, indicating Mogo's ability to cover short-term liabilities with its short-term assets [5][6]