期货研究报告|中观数据 2026-01-05 去库延续，需求仍待改善 ——行业景气度系列十 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 中观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1（0.9 pct MoM），处于扩张区间的行业环比减少 4 个，处于 收缩区间的行业环比增加 4 个；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2（0.7 pct MoM），处于扩张区间的 行业环比增加 5 个，处于收缩区间的行业环比减少 5 个。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 总体：12 月制造业 PMI 近五年分位数位于 57.6%，变动 37.3%。其中，4 个行业制造业 PMI 处于扩张区间，环比减少 4 个，同比减少 3 个。 供给：小幅回落。3 个月均值来看，12 月制造业 PMI 生产指数为 50.5 ，环比减少 0.1 个 百分点；其中，5 个行业出现环比改善，10 个行业出现环比回落。 需求：仍待改善。3 个月均值来看，12 月制造业 PMI 新订单为 49.6 ，环比增加 0.4 个百 分点。其中，3 个行业出 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Manufacturing**: In October, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Supply contracted (3 - month average: the production index was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), demand declined (new orders were 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (finished - product inventory up 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, raw - material inventory down 0.1 percentage points to 47.9) [3]. - **Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Supply slowed (3 - month average: the employee index was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), demand increased (new orders were 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (inventory was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month) [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Eight industries were in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and 3 less year - on - year [9]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Thirteen industries were in the expansion range, 5 more month - on - month and 1 more year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Automobile and Textile Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [16]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, while construction new orders increased 1.1 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [16]. 3.3 Supply: Focus on the Decline of Civil Engineering and the Improvement of Automobile and Pharmaceutical Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the production index in October was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Seven industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined. The employee index was 48.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eleven industries improved month - on - month, and 4 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the employee index in October was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 3 declined [24]. 3.4 Price: Focus on the Decline of Ferrous Metals and the Improvement of Aviation - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the ex - factory price index in October was 48.3, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. The profit trend in March decreased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, continuing to converge [32]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in October was 47.9, unchanged month - on - month. Service was unchanged, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 5 declined. The profit in March increased 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, with service unchanged and construction increasing 2.7 percentage points month - on - month [32]. 3.5 Inventory: Focus on the De - stocking of Non - ferrous Metals, Postal, and Construction Decoration Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the finished - product inventory in October increased 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Nine industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined. The raw - material inventory decreased 0.1 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined [39]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing inventory in October was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Service increased 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and construction increased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined [39]. 3.6 Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts The report provides detailed data on various manufacturing industries' PMI, including specific values, month - on - month, year - on - year, and three - year average changes for multiple indicators such as new orders, production, and inventory in industries like special equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others [47][49][54].

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing landscape of various industries, highlighting the decline of traditional roles and the emergence of new opportunities in the face of technological advancements and market shifts [6][22][23]. Industry Trends - A significant number of television channels and radio frequencies have been shut down, with 144 television channels and 52 radio frequencies canceled as of March 2024, primarily due to low viewership and declining advertising revenue [7][8]. - The entertainment industry is experiencing a shift, with former stars now performing in less prestigious venues, indicating a broader trend of diminishing returns for traditional media roles [11][13][15]. - The translation industry is facing challenges due to the rise of AI technology, leading to a reduction in demand for traditional translation roles and a decline in the profitability of language programs in educational institutions [16][21]. Employment Landscape - Many industries that were once considered stable are now facing significant changes, with high unemployment rates and a shift in job requirements. For example, the banking sector has seen a 12% layoff rate in 2023, and the construction industry is struggling to fill positions [22][24]. - The article emphasizes that no industry is immune to change, and even once-thriving sectors can become obsolete as market demands evolve [23][24]. Adaptation Strategies - Companies and individuals are encouraged to adopt a "sparrow mentality," which involves collaborating with AI and embracing technological advancements rather than resisting them [28][30]. - The importance of cross-disciplinary skills is highlighted, suggesting that professionals should develop a "mountain-shaped talent" profile, combining core expertise with auxiliary skills to remain competitive [32][34]. - The article advises individuals to pivot towards emerging "blue ocean" markets when their current industries decline, emphasizing the need for adaptability and innovation in career paths [35][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of career choices and the impact of societal trends on employment, emphasizing that current popular choices may not remain viable in the future [5][22]. Group 1: Career Choices and Trends - The author reflects on the past recommendations of certain fields, such as civil engineering, which were once considered promising but have since declined [5][6]. - The concept of a "two-level chaotic system" is introduced, where predictions can influence outcomes, particularly in career choices influenced by prominent figures [6][7]. - The article highlights the rapid changes in job market demands, noting that fields like computer science may soon face saturation, similar to civil engineering [11][19]. Group 2: The Nature of Choices - The discussion includes the idea of "utilitarianism" in career choices, where students are encouraged to pursue fields with better job prospects, reflecting a risk-averse strategy [8][12]. - The author points out the randomness of life and career paths, suggesting that even well-planned choices may not yield the expected results [10][21]. - The article contrasts two reproductive strategies, R-strategy and K-strategy, to illustrate the unpredictability of long-term success in career planning [13][14]. Group 3: The Role of Information - The author describes the role of influential figures in shaping public perception and choices, acting as "information equalizers" [7][22]. - The effectiveness of current popular career paths is questioned, suggesting that as more people follow the same advice, those paths may become overcrowded and less beneficial [22][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of lifelong learning and adaptability in navigating career choices, as the job market continues to evolve [25][26]. Group 4: Education and Employment - The article argues that the traditional link between university education and employment is weakening, with universities focusing more on critical thinking and adaptability rather than direct job training [26]. - It suggests that personal passion and interest in a field are crucial for long-term success and happiness, regardless of the current job market trends [26].

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of career choices and the potential for industries to decline unexpectedly, as seen with civil engineering and the current state of computer science [1][12][34] - It highlights the concept of a "second-level chaotic system," where predictions can influence outcomes, particularly in the context of career advice from influential figures [2][6][34] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations of current knowledge and the transient nature of perceived "safe" career paths [35][36][38] Group 2 - It points out that the current emphasis on job-oriented education may not guarantee future success, as industries can become oversaturated or decline [8][12][28] - The discussion includes the idea that personal passion and skills may ultimately determine success more than the chosen field of study [32][39] - The article concludes that universities are increasingly disconnected from job markets, focusing instead on developing critical thinking and adaptability skills [38][39]