Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Manufacturing**: In October, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Supply contracted (3 - month average: the production index was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), demand declined (new orders were 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (finished - product inventory up 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, raw - material inventory down 0.1 percentage points to 47.9) [3]. - **Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Supply slowed (3 - month average: the employee index was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), demand increased (new orders were 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (inventory was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month) [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Eight industries were in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and 3 less year - on - year [9]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Thirteen industries were in the expansion range, 5 more month - on - month and 1 more year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Automobile and Textile Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [16]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, while construction new orders increased 1.1 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [16]. 3.3 Supply: Focus on the Decline of Civil Engineering and the Improvement of Automobile and Pharmaceutical Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the production index in October was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Seven industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined. The employee index was 48.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eleven industries improved month - on - month, and 4 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the employee index in October was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 3 declined [24]. 3.4 Price: Focus on the Decline of Ferrous Metals and the Improvement of Aviation - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the ex - factory price index in October was 48.3, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. The profit trend in March decreased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, continuing to converge [32]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in October was 47.9, unchanged month - on - month. Service was unchanged, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 5 declined. The profit in March increased 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, with service unchanged and construction increasing 2.7 percentage points month - on - month [32]. 3.5 Inventory: Focus on the De - stocking of Non - ferrous Metals, Postal, and Construction Decoration Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the finished - product inventory in October increased 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Nine industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined. The raw - material inventory decreased 0.1 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined [39]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing inventory in October was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Service increased 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and construction increased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined [39]. 3.6 Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts The report provides detailed data on various manufacturing industries' PMI, including specific values, month - on - month, year - on - year, and three - year average changes for multiple indicators such as new orders, production, and inventory in industries like special equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others [47][49][54].

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing landscape of various industries, highlighting the decline of traditional roles and the emergence of new opportunities in the face of technological advancements and market shifts [6][22][23]. Industry Trends - A significant number of television channels and radio frequencies have been shut down, with 144 television channels and 52 radio frequencies canceled as of March 2024, primarily due to low viewership and declining advertising revenue [7][8]. - The entertainment industry is experiencing a shift, with former stars now performing in less prestigious venues, indicating a broader trend of diminishing returns for traditional media roles [11][13][15]. - The translation industry is facing challenges due to the rise of AI technology, leading to a reduction in demand for traditional translation roles and a decline in the profitability of language programs in educational institutions [16][21]. Employment Landscape - Many industries that were once considered stable are now facing significant changes, with high unemployment rates and a shift in job requirements. For example, the banking sector has seen a 12% layoff rate in 2023, and the construction industry is struggling to fill positions [22][24]. - The article emphasizes that no industry is immune to change, and even once-thriving sectors can become obsolete as market demands evolve [23][24]. Adaptation Strategies - Companies and individuals are encouraged to adopt a "sparrow mentality," which involves collaborating with AI and embracing technological advancements rather than resisting them [28][30]. - The importance of cross-disciplinary skills is highlighted, suggesting that professionals should develop a "mountain-shaped talent" profile, combining core expertise with auxiliary skills to remain competitive [32][34]. - The article advises individuals to pivot towards emerging "blue ocean" markets when their current industries decline, emphasizing the need for adaptability and innovation in career paths [35][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of career choices and the impact of societal trends on employment, emphasizing that current popular choices may not remain viable in the future [5][22]. Group 1: Career Choices and Trends - The author reflects on the past recommendations of certain fields, such as civil engineering, which were once considered promising but have since declined [5][6]. - The concept of a "two-level chaotic system" is introduced, where predictions can influence outcomes, particularly in career choices influenced by prominent figures [6][7]. - The article highlights the rapid changes in job market demands, noting that fields like computer science may soon face saturation, similar to civil engineering [11][19]. Group 2: The Nature of Choices - The discussion includes the idea of "utilitarianism" in career choices, where students are encouraged to pursue fields with better job prospects, reflecting a risk-averse strategy [8][12]. - The author points out the randomness of life and career paths, suggesting that even well-planned choices may not yield the expected results [10][21]. - The article contrasts two reproductive strategies, R-strategy and K-strategy, to illustrate the unpredictability of long-term success in career planning [13][14]. Group 3: The Role of Information - The author describes the role of influential figures in shaping public perception and choices, acting as "information equalizers" [7][22]. - The effectiveness of current popular career paths is questioned, suggesting that as more people follow the same advice, those paths may become overcrowded and less beneficial [22][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of lifelong learning and adaptability in navigating career choices, as the job market continues to evolve [25][26]. Group 4: Education and Employment - The article argues that the traditional link between university education and employment is weakening, with universities focusing more on critical thinking and adaptability rather than direct job training [26]. - It suggests that personal passion and interest in a field are crucial for long-term success and happiness, regardless of the current job market trends [26].

其实张雪峰几乎所有的观点，我都能接受并理解，他那些东西，绝大部分属于成年人世界的常识。包括 他很多年前推荐大家去读土木，这一点被人诟病和攻击得很厉害，其实我也能理解，毕竟在当时，土木 还是香饽饽。你说当时他为啥看不到土木的衰落？ 其实没几个人能看到，现在当然人人好像都很懂，回到当时，大猛子出现之前，谁都不知道土木这个行 业会衰落这么快。就好像你现在也看不穿过几年除了AI哪些行业会崛起，哪些行业会急剧衰退一样。 但是这事里，也隐藏了一个很深的问题，就是他现在说的那些很对的话，多年后还正确吗？或者说，现 在的常识，多年后还是常识吗？ 这就涉及到了咱们社会的一个基本模型，叫"二级混沌系统"。 比如咱们现在的超级计算机，可以轻松算出来行星轨道，甚至做天气预报这样极其复杂的预测。这些预 测，就是"一级混沌"，你的预测不影响结果。 但还有很多东西，属于"预测结果干预运行结果"，比如巴菲特说他看好某个股票，可能这种预测本身就 会导致那个股票大涨。 再比如我报考大学那一年，有专家在我们省内电视频道预测某个热门专业大家都别报，以往竞争太激 烈，高分生被成批刷掉。导致那年那个专业的分数很低，因为高分生主动避开了。 其实张雪峰现在 ...