Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of career choices and the impact of societal trends on employment, emphasizing that current popular choices may not remain viable in the future [5][22]. Group 1: Career Choices and Trends - The author reflects on the past recommendations of certain fields, such as civil engineering, which were once considered promising but have since declined [5][6]. - The concept of a "two-level chaotic system" is introduced, where predictions can influence outcomes, particularly in career choices influenced by prominent figures [6][7]. - The article highlights the rapid changes in job market demands, noting that fields like computer science may soon face saturation, similar to civil engineering [11][19]. Group 2: The Nature of Choices - The discussion includes the idea of "utilitarianism" in career choices, where students are encouraged to pursue fields with better job prospects, reflecting a risk-averse strategy [8][12]. - The author points out the randomness of life and career paths, suggesting that even well-planned choices may not yield the expected results [10][21]. - The article contrasts two reproductive strategies, R-strategy and K-strategy, to illustrate the unpredictability of long-term success in career planning [13][14]. Group 3: The Role of Information - The author describes the role of influential figures in shaping public perception and choices, acting as "information equalizers" [7][22]. - The effectiveness of current popular career paths is questioned, suggesting that as more people follow the same advice, those paths may become overcrowded and less beneficial [22][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of lifelong learning and adaptability in navigating career choices, as the job market continues to evolve [25][26]. Group 4: Education and Employment - The article argues that the traditional link between university education and employment is weakening, with universities focusing more on critical thinking and adaptability rather than direct job training [26]. - It suggests that personal passion and interest in a field are crucial for long-term success and happiness, regardless of the current job market trends [26].

其实张雪峰几乎所有的观点，我都能接受并理解，他那些东西，绝大部分属于成年人世界的常识。包括 他很多年前推荐大家去读土木，这一点被人诟病和攻击得很厉害，其实我也能理解，毕竟在当时，土木 还是香饽饽。你说当时他为啥看不到土木的衰落？ 其实没几个人能看到，现在当然人人好像都很懂，回到当时，大猛子出现之前，谁都不知道土木这个行 业会衰落这么快。就好像你现在也看不穿过几年除了AI哪些行业会崛起，哪些行业会急剧衰退一样。 但是这事里，也隐藏了一个很深的问题，就是他现在说的那些很对的话，多年后还正确吗？或者说，现 在的常识，多年后还是常识吗？ 这就涉及到了咱们社会的一个基本模型，叫"二级混沌系统"。 比如咱们现在的超级计算机，可以轻松算出来行星轨道，甚至做天气预报这样极其复杂的预测。这些预 测，就是"一级混沌"，你的预测不影响结果。 但还有很多东西，属于"预测结果干预运行结果"，比如巴菲特说他看好某个股票，可能这种预测本身就 会导致那个股票大涨。 再比如我报考大学那一年，有专家在我们省内电视频道预测某个热门专业大家都别报，以往竞争太激 烈，高分生被成批刷掉。导致那年那个专业的分数很低，因为高分生主动避开了。 其实张雪峰现在 ...