证券研究报告 江波龙 (301308 CH) 2Q25：存储周期向上，环比扭亏 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 半导体 1H25 公司实现营收 101.96 亿元（yoy：+12.80%），归母净利润 0.15 亿 元（yoy：-97.51%），扣非归母净利 0.32 亿元（yoy：-94.02%）。其 中，2Q25 实现营收 59.39 亿元（yoy：+29.51%，qoq：+39.53%），归 母净利润 1.67 亿元（yoy：-20.55%，qoq：+209.73%），扣非归母净润 2.34 亿元（yoy：+33.33%，qoq：+215.94%）。2Q25 公司营收创单季度 历史新高，主要受益于终端需求有所回暖，下游库存逐步回归健康水位， 同时，存储供需格局改善带动存储价格见底回升；毛利率环比改善至 14.82%（yoy：-7.83pct，qoq：+4.47pct），叠加费用管控显效，环比实 现扭亏为盈。存储周期向上，DRAM/NAND 三季度有望保持涨价趋势。公 司企业级存储、Lexar 及巴西 Zilia 等海外业务增长势头强劲，并积极推进 TCM 及 PTM 模式实现大客户突破，带动长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in storage solutions and is enhancing its layout in advanced wafer-level packaging [4]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54% [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising storage prices, with significant price increases projected for various memory products in Q3 2025 [8]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and has a strong R&D investment strategy, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [11]. Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 461.27 million [2] - Circulating shares: 317.30 million [2] - Market price: 64.07 CNY [2] - Market capitalization: 29,553.29 million CNY [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 3,591 million CNY, with a growth rate of 20% [4]. - Projected revenue for 2024A: 6,695 million CNY, with a growth rate of 86% [4]. - Projected net profit for 2025E: 461 million CNY, with a growth rate of 186% [4]. - Projected EPS for 2025E: 1.00 CNY [4]. - Projected P/E ratio for 2025E: 64.2 [4]. Market and Industry Analysis - The company has a strong market position in embedded storage, PC storage, automotive-grade storage, and enterprise storage, ranking among the top domestic storage manufacturers [8]. - The company is implementing a one-stop solution for storage and wafer-level advanced packaging, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the market [10]. - The company has successfully launched its first domestically developed main control chip, which is expected to cater to various applications, including smart wearables and automotive [10].

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of between 80 million to 120 million RMB for the current period, with a significant decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 120.64% to 130.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's operating revenue is projected to be between 3.8 billion to 4.2 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 74.63% to 93.01% [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.49 to 0.74 RMB per share, compared to a profit of 2.63 RMB per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The improvement in supply-demand structure has driven overall price recovery, and the company has actively expanded its enterprise-level storage and embedded storage businesses, leading to a significant increase in operational scale [2] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in R&D expenses, with approximately 130 million RMB for the first half of 2025, up from 86.64 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a 50% increase [2] - The company has successfully upgraded its service model from a single product supply to an integrated service of "hardware + technology + supply chain," achieving rapid breakthroughs in enterprise-level and embedded storage sectors [2]

Group 1: Storage Market Insights - The storage market is experiencing a "supply-demand double kill," transitioning from DDR4 production cuts to a surge in AI computing power [1][2] - Recent supply contractions are driving short-term price increases, while long-term demand is expected to rise due to high AI market activity [3] - Domestic manufacturers are making significant progress in the localization of enterprise-level storage, indicating a trend towards domestic substitution [4] Group 2: Chemical Industry Developments - Major companies in the polyester bottle chip sector are implementing production cuts of approximately 20%, which is expected to accelerate industry recovery [6][7] - The overcapacity in the market has been largely digested, suggesting a potential for improved market conditions [8]

Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing Trends - Manufacturing utilization rates continue to improve year-on-year, with downstream manufacturers focusing on Chiplet and advanced packaging technologies[1] - The storage market is showing signs of a price turning point, with an upward trend expected to continue until Q3 2025, driven by AI-related demand[1] - Design companies are experiencing differentiated downstream demand, with power and analog companies reporting a recovery in industrial and automotive sectors[1] Group 2: Equipment and Domestic Production - Global WFE is projected to reach $100 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4%-5%[3] - Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing significant growth in new orders, benefiting from downstream expansion and increased localization rates[3] - The verification speed of core new equipment by domestic companies is accelerating, indicating a positive trend for advanced node domestic equipment breakthroughs[3] Group 3: Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to see price increases, with predictions of 18-23% and 13-18% growth for Server and PC DDR4 modules respectively in Q2 2025[4] - The enterprise storage market is projected to grow from $23.4 billion in 2024 to $49 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16%[25] - Domestic manufacturers are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage driven by AI infrastructure investments[25] Group 4: Design Sector Insights - The power semiconductor sector in China is entering a mild upward cycle, with a 14.5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger car production from January to April 2025[38] - The demand for SoC and MCU products is significantly driven by national subsidies and export opportunities, with performance expected to vary across companies in Q2 2025[26] - The analog chip sector is recovering, with industrial and communication sectors seeing a return to inventory restocking[29]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on its core business of storage chips, increasing R&D investment to enhance technological autonomy, and expanding its product development and business operations in emerging fields such as AI servers and data centers [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1302.30% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.41%, but a net loss of 69.09 million yuan [1]. Market Conditions and Strategy - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to industry cycle fluctuations, structural adjustments in market demand, and temporary cost pressures, but expects improvement as industry conditions recover [1]. - Since March, the storage chip market has shown signs of supply-demand improvement, leading to a stabilization and recovery in prices [2]. R&D and Product Development - The company has significantly increased R&D investment in 2024, particularly in high-performance areas, and is focused on breakthroughs in core technologies related to storage chips [2]. - The company is actively developing products in enterprise-level storage, industrial-grade storage, embedded storage, and high-performance main control chips to meet the diverse needs of emerging technologies like AI and cloud computing [2][3]. Business Expansion - The enterprise-level storage business is progressing well, having entered the supply chains of major internet and server manufacturers, with some products successfully validated and shipped in bulk [3]. - The company is expanding its product matrix to include solid-state drives, embedded storage, memory bars, and mobile storage, while also targeting new application scenarios such as data centers, industrial control, consumer electronics, and smart wearables [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on breakthroughs in core technologies within the storage chip sector and is actively developing a core technology platform to meet the diverse demands of emerging technologies like AI and cloud computing [1] Group 1: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively laying out plans in enterprise storage, industrial-grade storage, embedded storage, and high-performance main control chips [1] - Some new products have already achieved mass production and have been successfully introduced to key customers, which is expected to positively impact the company's overall performance [1]