证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观点评 宏观点评 20250612 如何"反内卷"?——关键在于定价权 在过去 5 年毛利率标准差的倒数低于 25%、介于 25%至 50%两组上市 公司中,区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 59.85%、 51.65%; ) 乐吴让莽 2025年06月12日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb@dwza.com.cn 相关研究 《并购重组驶入"快车道"助力科技 企业估值提升》 2025-06-08 《融资需求回暖,5月社融增速或继 续抬升》 2025-06-08 具体而言: 通过对沪深上市公司计算1自 2020年至 2024年毛利率标准差的倒数 (反映定价权,数值越高越好),2自 2020/1/2 至 2024/12/31 区间股价 涨跌幅可得: 但在过去 5年毛利率标准差的倒数介于 50%至 100%、高于 100%两组 上市公司中,区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 39.23%、 41.69%。 ■ 风险提示:(1)对地方 ...

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The concept of "involution" refers to a situation where increased labor supply does not lead to higher productivity, resulting in complex organizational structures and increased labor intensity without output growth[8] - Since 2024, "anti-involution" has been a key focus of domestic policy, with significant events such as the implementation of the new "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium Enterprises" and increased efforts to resolve government debts owed to enterprises[9] - Short-term measures to clear government debts may improve cash flow for construction, environmental, and IT sectors, but could limit local government bond capacity for physical work contributions[10] Group 2: Pricing Power Analysis - "Pricing power" is defined as the ability of a company to pass on cost increases to consumers, which is crucial for addressing "involution" and establishing a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve government debt issues[11] - The report quantifies pricing power using the inverse of the standard deviation of gross profit margins over the past five years, indicating that stable profit margins are essential for transferring cost increases to consumers[11] - Data from A-share listed companies shows that companies with the weakest pricing power (inverse standard deviation of gross profit margin below 25%) had a negative stock price change ratio of 59.85%, while those with the strongest pricing power (above 100%) had a ratio of only 41.69%[18] Group 3: Statistical Findings - In the past five years, companies with an inverse standard deviation of gross profit margin between 50% and 100% had a negative stock price change ratio of 39.23%[18] - The analysis indicates that as pricing power increases, the proportion of companies experiencing negative stock price changes decreases significantly, with a drop of over 18 percentage points when comparing the weakest and strongest pricing power groups[12]