今年10月1日起，按照《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》（以下简称《规定》）有关要求，互联网 平台企业将首次正式报送平台内经营者和从业人员的身份信息、收入信息。 吉林财经大学税务学院院长张巍介绍，《规定》明确互联网平台内从事配送、运输、家政等便民劳务活 动的从业人员，依法享受税收优惠或者不需要纳税的，无需报送其收入信息。这意味着，《规定》实施 不会对外卖员等从业人员的日常工作、收入和税负产生影响，外卖员等从业人员也不会因此增加税收负 担。 施正文同时介绍，累计预扣法并不是一个新的预扣预缴方法，目前该方法在工资薪金所得、保险营销员 和证券经纪人的劳务报酬所得等预扣预缴中被广泛使用，是一种已被证实的便捷高效且能较好体现量能 负担的扣缴方法。这次将累计预扣法适用于平台上的外卖员等从业人员，可以大幅减轻这部分人员预扣 预缴税款的负担。 除个人所得税外，《公告》还细化了增值税及附加税费代办申报相关规定，从业人员自互联网平台企业 取得的服务收入可按规定享受增值税小规模纳税人月销售额10万元以下免征增值税等税费优惠政策，不 需再按次申报缴纳增值税，进一步减轻了平台从业人员的税收负担。 有一些从业人员担心平台在代扣代缴过程中 ...

Core Points - China has the world's largest social security system, with basic pension and medical insurance covering 1.066 billion and 1.326 billion people respectively by the end of 2024, a remarkable achievement for a developing country with a population of 1.4 billion [1] - The recent ruling by the Supreme People's Court emphasizes that any agreement between employers and employees to not pay social insurance is invalid, which has sparked discussions about mandatory social insurance for over 200 million flexible workers [1][2] - The current minimum social insurance payment base is generally set at 60% of the average monthly wage of urban employees from the previous year, leading to significant costs for employers [2][3] Social Insurance Regulations - The new interpretation of existing laws clarifies that employers are obligated to pay social insurance, addressing previously ambiguous areas where agreements to waive such payments existed [2][4] - The average social insurance coverage for new employment forms is low, with many workers, especially in the gig economy, lacking adequate social security [7][8] Labor Market Dynamics - The declining dependency ratio in China's pension system indicates a growing challenge, with projections suggesting that reforms could delay the depletion of pension funds from 2035 to 2044 [3][6] - The majority of flexible workers, particularly those with lower incomes, are more likely to agree to waive social insurance, highlighting a power imbalance in employer-employee negotiations [5][6] New Employment Forms - Approximately 84 million new employment form workers exist in China, representing about 21% of the total workforce, with many lacking basic social insurance coverage [7][8] - The average number of social insurance types covered for new employment form workers is only 1.46, indicating significant gaps in coverage [8] Legal and Institutional Responses - Recent government initiatives aim to protect the rights of new employment form workers, including pilot programs for occupational injury insurance [9][12] - The introduction of labor contracts for full-time delivery riders by platforms like JD.com marks a significant step towards ensuring social insurance coverage for gig workers [11][12] Economic Implications - The long-term sustainability of the social security system requires balancing immediate economic pressures with the need for comprehensive coverage for all workers [13][16] - Companies that prioritize compliance with social insurance obligations may enhance their competitive advantage and build trust with consumers and employees [16][18]

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]

策略对话交运：交运反内卷行情展望 20250723 摘要 航空行业历史上是否出现过供给端收缩的情况？过去十年来有哪些可借鉴的经 验？ 航空业历史上从未出现过大规模供给端问题。2017 年在供给侧改革背景下， 一线机场控制时刻资源导致股价表现亮眼，但需求并不差。目前航空行业供给 变化是前所未有的，自 2020 年以来累计亏损近 5,000 亿，使得 19 年以来供 给断崖式下行，从之前 15 年的复合增长率 12%降至不到 3%。需求恢复迅速 但工商务需求一般，因此尚未看到连续翻正。今年 5 月因私需求带动票价翻正， 但 6 月因禁酒令及其他因素导致工商务需求环比下滑 10 个百分点，使得六七 月份票价偏弱。预计今年 9 月初国内重大事件后可能会看到价格翻正。 航空业票价更多反映供需现实而非预期，2024 年 5 月已现票价翻正， 主要由供需关系驱动。民航局虽强调整治内卷，但即使无政策，若供给 端协同，票价翻正仍具持续性和幅度。 航空业自 2020 年来累计亏损近 5,000 亿，导致供给断崖式下行，年复 合增长率从 12%降至不到 3%。需求虽恢复迅速，但工商务需求疲软， 6 月因禁酒令等因素环比下滑 10% ...

Group 1 - The core initiative is the "Three Exemptions and One Subsidy" policy, which offers free tuition, materials, and registration fees for training courses, along with rewards for outstanding students ranging from 100 to 500 yuan [1] - The program aims to create a friendly ecosystem for new employment groups, focusing on their needs for career growth, children's education, and health security [2][3] - A total of 7500 affordable housing units have been made available, with rents set at 70% below market prices, and an additional 1100 units planned for this year [3] Group 2 - The "Xiang Xiao Jiao" education service package includes 18 teaching points offering 12 practical courses, with training scheduled during evenings and weekends to accommodate workers [2] - The initiative also extends support to the "little migratory birds" group by establishing at least 80 care classes across 14 streets to assist with childcare [2] - The program includes the establishment of a volunteer service team from the courier industry, with over 200 couriers participating in community governance [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Gold Market**: Gold prices have recently surpassed $3,000 per ounce, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and a decline in the U.S. stock market, which has suppressed market risk appetite and boosted safe-haven assets. This trend is also reflected in the rising prices of silver and copper, indicating a spread of risk aversion across the metal markets [2][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Dynamics**: The surge in gold prices is primarily influenced by short-term factors, with medium-term prices deviating from traditional pricing frameworks. Key support comes from central bank purchases and increased demand from the private sector in Asia, particularly China. The potential for U.S. tariffs on gold remains a critical factor to monitor [3][17]. - **Aviation Market Recovery**: The domestic aviation market is gradually recovering, with ticket prices rebounding post the Two Sessions meeting. The average ticket price excluding fuel surcharges has shown a year-on-year increase, while the overall flight supply is experiencing negative growth. The next 30 days of advance booking data indicate a 5% increase in ticket prices, suggesting a positive outlook for the aviation sector as a resilient consumer demand category [3][4]. - **Express Delivery Sector Growth**: The express delivery industry saw a 25% increase in package volume in January and February, exceeding initial market expectations. However, intense price competition in regions like Yiwu could impact profitability. Recommendations include focusing on Shentong and Zhongtong as key players [3][5]. - **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing price declines due to lower-than-expected seasonal demand. However, certain products like pesticides and organic silicon still present investment opportunities due to fiscal stimulus and domestic demand recovery. Recommendations include Baofeng Energy and Guojing Chemical [3][7]. - **High-Speed PCB Industry**: The high-speed PCB industry is thriving, driven by AI computing needs. Companies like Ximing Life Science and Dongcai Technology are expected to see significant growth in orders and deliveries, marking this sector as a high-growth area [3][12]. - **Coal Industry Lifecycle**: The coal industry is entering a new lifecycle phase, with global coal inventories declining and geopolitical factors supporting demand. Chinese coal companies are enhancing their overseas market strategies, which is expected to boost profit contributions [3][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: The most recommended investment directions include domestic aviation and express delivery sectors, with specific focus on large Hong Kong airlines and small A-share airlines. In the express sector, Shentong, Zhongtong, JD Logistics, and SF Express are highlighted as key players [3][8]. - **Vitamin Market Dynamics**: The vitamin market is expected to see price increases due to low inventory levels and upcoming restocking by downstream customers. Companies like Zhejiang Medicine and Xinhecheng are recommended for their potential earnings growth with rising prices [10][11]. - **Governance Issues in Potash Industry**: The resolution of governance issues at Yara International has alleviated major risks, making it a favorable investment in the potash sector [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks based on the latest market dynamics.