今日A股小幅震荡，上证指数微涨0.04%，收于3965.28点，截至今日已录得九连阳；深证成指下跌0.49%，收于 13537.10点。两市成交维持2.15万亿元的高位，整体上跌多涨少。临近年末市场热点趋于分散，石油、军工板 块表现相对较好。四季度以来市场经历短暂调整后恢复上行，长期来看推动本轮行情的积极因素尚未出现变 化，明年的慢牛行情依然可期。 养殖板块今日温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加，生猪供应将出现 实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，且行业亏损 之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题）的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代 种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润形成支撑。 总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复，感 兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF(159865)。 //// // ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 9.36 CNY [6]. Core Views - The white chicken industry chain is experiencing persistent price weakness, but the company is continuously enhancing its capabilities in adversity. As the industry prices stabilize and recover, the company's performance is expected to show greater upward elasticity [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market, and the future development trends in the industry support a positive outlook for its earnings growth [12]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 35,970 million CNY, with a decline to 32,545 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 40,649 million CNY in 2025 and further growth to 44,156 million CNY in 2026, and 47,519 million CNY in 2027 [12][13]. - The company’s gross margin for the poultry business was 2.1% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% for the entire year of 2024, but significantly improved from 1.0% in the first half of 2024 [12]. - The average price of chicken products in the first half of 2025 was 8,966 CNY/ton, lower than the annual average of 9,435 CNY/ton in 2024 [12]. Business Segments - The poultry segment is expected to generate revenues of 113.4 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 136.6 billion CNY in 2025, and 152.6 billion CNY in 2026 [16]. - The feed business is projected to see revenues rise from 125.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 172.8 billion CNY in 2025, and 190.4 billion CNY in 2026 [16]. - The pig farming segment is expected to generate revenues of 33.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline to 34.3 billion CNY in 2025, before recovering to 37.9 billion CNY in 2027 [16]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market position by focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in its poultry operations while actively expanding its market reach and optimizing marketing strategies [12]. - The company has ceased expansion in meat chicken farming temporarily due to sufficient industry supply, focusing instead on high-quality processing and premium market channels [12].

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 猪价或持续弱势，产能去化进行时 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20251208-20251212） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续弱势，去化逻辑或逐步加强 本周 SW 生猪养殖板块涨 1.11%，猪价表现先弱后强，生猪期货低位反弹（收涨 +2.17%）。降温叠加腌腊需求，本周猪价先弱后强收至 11.27 元/kg，周日涨至 11.54 元/kg（涌益）、全行业亏损，但第三方机构显示去化偏缓（涌益 11 月 yoy-0.14%）， 资本市场担忧产能去化进度、股价短期震荡。当前出栏均重上涨至约 130kg，12 月 出栏计划环比继续增长（涌益样本增幅 ...

资金逢低布局畜牧板块，畜牧ETF(159867)盘中净申购3800万份。 截至2025年12月4日 13:33，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，海大集团(002311)领涨 1.44%，华英农业(002321)上涨1.43%，中牧股份(600195)上涨1.28%；罗牛山(000735)领跌。畜牧 ETF(159867)最新报价0.64元。 畜牧ETF跟踪指数中证畜牧[930707.CSI]，数据显示，申万三级行业中： 1. 生猪板块：小体重猪出栏占比上升，持续关注冬季疫病防控情况！猪价持续阴跌&仔猪价格企稳。截 至11月末，全国生猪均价11.63元/kg，行业自繁自养亏损为111元/头。需求端，天气转凉，北方屠宰企 业表现在低猪价阶段的主动加量动作，南方市场主要以川渝区域带动为主，地方性尝鲜期腌腊消费开 启，本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比增加3.39%。同时受气温下降影响，山东南部、辽宁西部部分区 域有零星猪病散发，90kg以下小体重猪整体出栏占比为4.83%，较上周增加0.34%。应重视生猪板块空 间和重视优秀企业的盈利能力，在25年猪价持续低位与政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。 动 ...

人民财讯12月1日电，温氏股份（300498）11月28日在券商策略会上表示，公司养鸡业生产成绩持续保 持高水平稳定。10月份，公司毛鸡出栏完全成本降至5.7元/斤。自8月以来，鸡价快速回升并延续较好 鸡价水平，符合传统消费旺季特性。根据当前鸡价水平，公司养鸡业务可以获得合理盈利。 ...

编号：202514 | 投资者关 | 现场调研 电话会议 | | --- | --- | | 系活动类 | 业绩说明会 路演活动 | | 别 | 券商策略会 其他活动 | | 参与单位 | 2025 年 11 月 28 日，公司前往广西南宁参加国海证券"桂启新程"2026 资本市场年会（线 | | 名称及人 | 下），国寿资管、交银施罗德基金、中金资管等 家机构共 位机构投资者参与。部 9 12 | | 员姓名 | 分名单详见附件清单。 | | | 重要提示：参会人员名单由组织机构提供并经整理后披露。公司无法保证所有参会人员 | | | 及其单位名称的完整性和准确性，敬请投资者注意。 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 11 28 | | 地点 | 广西南宁 | | 上市公司 | 证券事务代表覃刚禄，投资者关系管理室主任史志茹 | | 接待人员 | | | 姓名 | | | | 一、Q&A | | | （一）养猪业务 | | | 1.请问公司当前疫病防控情况如何？ | | 投资者关 | 答：近年来，公司构建了科学完善的生物安全防控体系，配备有空气过滤等硬件设 | | 系活动主 | 施，猪场实施 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 10 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 10 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2307 万套，同比 +2.5%，环比+0.7%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1532 万套，同比-6.8%，环比 -2.2%。10 月父母代鸡苗价格为 47.79 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 44 周数据为 45.97 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比上涨，毛鸡养殖端环比下降。10 月毛鸡养殖亏损 1.78 元/羽，环比盈利大幅下降；孵化场盈利 0.65 元/羽，环比盈利大幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas in October is 3.35 CNY per chick, down 19.3% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month, indicating a challenging environment for white feather chicken farming [1] - The average price of live chickens is 6.93 CNY per kilogram, down 6.8% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with a loss of 1.78 CNY per chick in the farming sector [1] - The supply of parent stock broiler chicks is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025 due to a significant decrease in overseas imports, which will also impact the supply of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [1] Group 2: Yellow Feather Chicken Insights - The average price of fast-growing yellow chickens in October is 4.82 CNY per jin, down 6.4% year-on-year and 10.9% month-on-month, while the average price of Xueshan grass chickens is 7.68 CNY per jin, down 13% year-on-year and 14.2% month-on-month [2] - Despite a slight decline in demand post-holidays, yellow chicken prices remain stable, and profitability in the farming sector is still favorable [2] - Major companies have reduced their yellow chicken production costs, with Wens' cost at approximately 5.8 CNY per jin and Lihua's potentially below 5.7 CNY per jin [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for quality parent stock broiler chicks is expected to remain strong in 2025, despite an increase in imports of grandparent stock chickens in 2024 [3] - The current low inventory of parent stock chickens and ongoing industry losses are setting the stage for future price increases in yellow chickens [3] - The market for fresh yellow feather chickens is anticipated to have significant growth potential due to changing consumer habits and economic recovery [3]

Core Insights - In October, the comprehensive cost of pig farming for the company was 6.1 yuan per jin, while the total cost for broiler chicken was 5.7 yuan per jin [1] Company Summary - The company reported a comprehensive cost of 6.1 yuan per jin for pig farming in October [1] - The total cost for broiler chicken production was stated as 5.7 yuan per jin [1]

Group 1 - The company reported that the comprehensive cost of pig farming in October was 6.1 yuan per kilogram [2] - The complete cost of broiler chicken farming in October was 5.7 yuan per kilogram [2]