Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, silver has a hedging property, and military demand is expected to grow continuously with the great - power game. The current structural tightness of the silver spot supports the short - term price. After a pullback, the risk - reward ratio is evident. It is expected that the annual high point is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [3] - Comparing platinum and palladium, platinum has more room for price increase. Platinum has both the irreplaceability of military rigid demand and emerging applications in industrial fields such as commercial aerospace and hydrogen energy, with a more diversified and rigid demand structure. Palladium's demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive catalytic field, and its demand growth has obvious uncertainty due to the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. [3] - In the future, under the multiple backgrounds of the continuation of the global loose liquidity expectation, the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, the continuous release of military rigid demand, and the difficulty in alleviating the rigid constraints on the supply side, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise continuously. [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The New Normal of Great - Power Game - The Fragmented Pattern Brought by National Resource Nationalism - Since the beginning of 2026, driven by American national resource nationalism, the global geopolitical and external environment has shown the characteristics of the normalization of great - power game, the fragmentation of the global order, and the weaponization of the rule system, forming a fragmented pattern centered on "America First". [7] - The shift from multilateralism to bilateralism in the global order has accelerated. Resource protection and camp fragmentation have led to continuous conflicts and the general rise of commodity prices. The United States has broken the post - World War II international governance system, and the authority of traditional multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations has been continuously weakened. [8] - The great - power game has been upgraded to security competition and camp confrontation, driving the global arms race into a new round of acceleration. Platinum and silver have become irreplaceable core materials in the military industry chain, and their demand is strongly related to the geopolitical pattern and the intensity of the arms race. [9] 2. Military Silver Enters the Era of Rigid Demand 2.1 Silver's Military Application Scenarios - **Electronic System**: In military equipment, silver is mainly used in electronic and electrical systems, such as in the form of silver - plated connectors, conductive surface coatings, etc. In missile guidance systems, silver can reduce transmission losses and ensure stable signal transmission. In military communication equipment and aerospace, silver can also improve the reliability of signal transmission. For example, a Tomahawk missile contains about 10 - 15 ounces (0.31 - 0.47 kg) of silver. [11][12][15] - **Energy and Power System**: In military equipment, silver is used in high - power - density batteries and solar panels. Silver - zinc batteries are used in underwater weapons and main surface warships' weapon systems. For example, a single MK45 seawater - activated torpedo battery contains about 137 kg of silver equivalent. In satellite solar panels, although space - grade solar cells currently mainly use materials such as gold, titanium, and platinum, low - cost alternatives such as silicon - based batteries and perovskite batteries are emerging. [19][20][21] - **Special Materials and Coatings**: Silver can be used as an electromagnetic shielding material in stealth materials, and silver ions can be used in antibacterial and water - purification components in military equipment. [25] 2.2 Historical Military Silver Consumption - In the 1976 - 1978 fiscal years, the annual average military silver consumption in the United States was about 3.5 million ounces (about 109 tons/year), and in the wartime scenario, it was about 38.4 million ounces (about 1194 tons/year). [26] - By quantifying and summing up the silver consumption in missiles, satellites, and batteries, it is estimated that the military silver consumption from 2020 - 2024 was about 510 tons, and in 2024, it accounted for 1.4% of the global annual silver demand. It is expected that the military silver consumption in 2025 and 2026 will be 548 tons and 564 tons respectively. [30] 3. Platinum's Military Use Has Strategic Rigidity 3.1 Platinum's Military Application Scenarios - **Key Components of Military Equipment**: In missile infrared guidance systems, platinum can improve the recognition accuracy and anti - interference ability of target heat sources. In radar and electronic warfare equipment, platinum coatings can reduce signal transmission losses. In naval ships and armored vehicles, platinum alloys can resist corrosion and improve wear resistance. In nuclear military equipment, platinum can be used in control rod components or the shells of nuclear radiation detectors. [35][37] - **Core Components of Aerospace Engines**: Platinum catalysts in military aircraft fuel combustion systems can improve combustion efficiency, reduce fuel consumption, and meet emission requirements. They can also reduce carbon deposition and infrared radiation signals. [38][39] - **Space Propulsion Systems and Spacecraft Equipment**: Platinum is used in liquid rocket engines to trigger the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide propellants, in spacecraft small thrusters as electrode materials, in space solar cell electrode coatings, and in spacecraft thermal control systems. [43] 3.2 Platinum's Core Application Scenarios in the Military Field Have Strong Irreplaceability - Although there is no accurate data on the specific platinum consumption in application scenarios, it is estimated that the platinum consumption of a single military aircraft engine may exceed 500 grams. Platinum's applications in military and aerospace fields are irreplaceable, such as in rocket propellant decomposition, military aircraft engine hot - end protection, etc. [47][48][49] 3.3 Palladium's Military Application Degree Is Affected by Its Own Characteristics and Is Relatively Low - Palladium is mainly used as an auxiliary functional material in military and aerospace fields, with fewer application scenarios than platinum. Due to its performance limitations, such as a lower melting point and susceptibility to sulfur poisoning, it is difficult to replace platinum in core military scenarios. [53] 4. Historical Review of Local Wars and Views on Silver and Platinum Assets - After reviewing the price fluctuations of precious metals in the two months after the outbreak of 7 wars since 1970, it is found that gold rose 4 times and fell 3 times, silver rose 2 times and fell 5 times. For platinum and palladium, data since 1980 shows that platinum fell 5 times and palladium fell 4 times in the 6 wars. [54] - Historically, gold mostly rose during geopolitical conflicts, and silver mostly fell slightly but had significant increases in two cases. Silver has a certain hedging property, and its military demand is expected to grow if the new cold - war pattern of great - power conflicts continues. [54] - In the short term, the price of silver is affected by the structural tightness of the spot. It is expected that the high point this year is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [55] - In the past, the short - term performance of platinum and palladium in the market was more like industrial metals, with prices under pressure due to the impact of war on the real economy. However, since 2025, the pricing logic of the platinum - palladium market has changed, forming a multi - dimensional pricing system. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise further. [58][61][62]

记者丨董鹏 编辑丨巫燕玲 贵金属市场仍未企稳。2月5日早盘，伦敦银再次出现14%的下跌，这距一周前的高点已经回撤近40%，并且可能会再次创出阶段性新低。截至发稿，现货白 银仍跌12%，黄金则跌至4860美元/盎司左右。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4859.850 | -108.456 | -2.18% | 12.54% | | 伦敦银现 | 78.024 | -10.665 | -12.02% | 9.01% | 金、银价格剧烈波动，有的企业选择高位出手，落袋为安，也有人敢于跌停抄底，甚至是加杠杆入局。 A股的奥克股份、港股英皇娱乐酒店，近期便分别将其库存原料白银、用于装饰的金砖对外出售，后者更因此有望获得9020万港元的投资收益。 另一边的权益市场，更为精彩。不仅有兴业银锡董秘敢于在第三个跌停板逆市增持200万的案例，更有融资资金趁着金价回落的机会，两天狂买18亿元湖南 黄金…… 贪婪与恐惧的激烈交锋，上市公司、个人投资者不同的多空抉择，共同构成了近期贵金属市场剧烈波动下的资本图景。 高位变现 ...

2025年，全球贵金属市场迎来一场史无前例的"牛市"狂欢，黄金年内涨幅突破70%，白银飙升超 170%，铂金、钯金亦纷纷刷新历史高点。 火热行情迅速传导至国内消费终端，主流黄金品牌足金饰品价格突破每克1400元，线下门店购金热潮涌 动，黄金回收区也迎来交易高峰。 回溯本轮"牛市"成因，多重核心因素形成共振：多国中央银行持续增持黄金；地缘政治风险推升市场避 险情绪；美元信用动摇，进一步提升黄金等贵金属的相对吸引力；叠加矿产端供给短缺与工业需求增长 形成的供需结构性失衡，共同构筑了"牛市"的底座。 展望2026年，结构性分化或将取代普涨行情，需警惕的是，当前贵金属价格已处历史高位，而美联储货 币政策预期摇摆、地缘冲突缓解等潜在因素，仍可能引发市场大幅波动，理性研判、严控仓位成为投资 者穿越市场周期的关键。 2025：狂飙的"牛市" 12年前，中国大妈"血战"华尔街大鳄，在全国各地黄金卖场掀起了一场"疯狂扫货"的热潮，成为全球金 融市场上一段令人津津乐道的传奇。如今，随着2025年贵金属市场迎来"牛市"上涨行情，跑步入局的不 仅仅是中国大妈，中青年投资者也将黄金视为投资理财的心头好。 如果说之前贵金属的上行主要依赖 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold surpassing $4000 and silver exceeding $50 per ounce, marking historical highs since the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market [3][4][5] - The demand from institutions and nations is influencing prices, while the short-selling pressure on gold and silver is diminishing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][5] - There are alarming signs of a global silver shortage, with reports of supply disruptions from mints in Canada and South Africa, suggesting a potential crisis in precious metal availability [5][6] Market Dynamics - The reduction of short positions by major banks in silver contracts by 50% from July to August indicates a weakening of the forces that have historically suppressed silver prices [5][6] - The potential for extreme price volatility in silver is predicted, with daily fluctuations of $5 to $20 becoming possible as the market transitions into a new phase of price discovery [7][8] - The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is seen as a catalyst for the surge in precious metal prices, suggesting that monetary policy changes are driving market behavior [6][7] Economic Implications - The current trends in precious metals reflect deeper issues within the global monetary system, with the dollar losing significant purchasing power, estimated at 99.34% [6][8] - Predictions suggest that gold could reach prices between $13,000 and $30,000 per ounce as the monetary system undergoes reevaluation, indicating a potential systemic collapse [7][8] - The potential for hyperinflation similar to that experienced in Venezuela and Argentina is highlighted, with significant implications for the value of currencies and precious metals [7][8] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider precious metals as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, as historical trends show that physical assets tend to retain value in depreciating currency environments [8] - The volatility in the market is expected to be severe, necessitating preparedness for short-term corrections and significant price swings [8] - The current environment may represent a historical turning point, requiring a reevaluation of traditional investment strategies and perceptions of value [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]