Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "Offense and Defense Dividend 50 Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to enhance returns by selecting high-dividend stocks with a balance of growth and stability, outperforming the benchmark dividend indices[6][15] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by combining stocks with high dividend yields, growth potential, and low volatility. The selection process involves filtering stocks based on dividend-related factors and optimizing the portfolio to achieve a balance between growth and defensive characteristics[6][15] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance, consistently outperforming the benchmark dividend indices and ranking in the top percentile among dividend-focused funds[6][21] - **Model Name**: "Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high dividend payouts, aiming to capture stable returns from these entities[15] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by selecting 30 central SOEs with the highest dividend yields. The selection criteria emphasize stability and consistent dividend payouts[15] **Model Evaluation**: The model shows stable performance, delivering excess returns over the benchmark dividend indices[15][21] - **Model Name**: "Electronic Sector Enhanced Portfolios" **Model Construction Idea**: These models aim to enhance returns within the electronic sector by focusing on high-growth sub-sectors and leading companies in mature sub-sectors[15][31] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio**: This portfolio is constructed by evenly allocating weights across various electronic sub-sectors to achieve diversification[15] 2. **Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio**: This portfolio focuses on leading companies in mature sub-sectors, emphasizing their growth potential and market dominance[15][31] **Model Evaluation**: Both portfolios demonstrate positive returns, with the Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio delivering higher excess returns relative to the electronic sector index[31] Model Backtesting Results - **Offense and Defense Dividend 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: ~1.41% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[6][21] - Year-to-date excess return: ~3.52% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[21] - Weekly performance percentile: ~11% among dividend-focused funds[6][21] - **Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.35% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[6][21] - **Electronic Sector Enhanced Portfolios**: - **Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return: ~0.89% over the electronic sector index[31] - **Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return: ~0.89% over the electronic sector index[31] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Dividend Quality **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability and sustainability of a company's dividend payouts[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using metrics such as dividend payout ratio, historical dividend growth rate, and earnings stability. Companies with higher scores on these metrics are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong predictive power for identifying high-performing dividend stocks[16][18] - **Factor Name**: Dividend Growth **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the growth potential of a company's dividends over time[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from the historical growth rate of dividends and projected earnings growth. Companies with consistent and high dividend growth rates are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows significant excess returns compared to pure dividend yield factors[16][18] - **Factor Name**: Low Volatility Dividend **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor targets stocks with high dividend yields and low price volatility[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by combining dividend yield with a volatility measure (e.g., standard deviation of returns). Stocks with high yields and low volatility are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a defensive characteristic, outperforming during market downturns[16][18] Factor Backtesting Results - **Dividend Quality Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~1.94% over the CSI Dividend Index[18] - **Dividend Growth Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.92% over the CSI Dividend Index[18] - **Low Volatility Dividend Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.69% over the CSI Dividend Index[18]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "攻守兼备红利50组合" (Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model adopts an active quantitative strategy with a "top-down" stock selection logic. It aims to identify high-potential stocks within dividend-related themes by leveraging a refined factor library and aligning with industry and thematic insights[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model focuses on dividend-related stocks, emphasizing a balance between "stability" and "growth" factors[15] 2. It selects stocks from a universe of high-dividend companies, incorporating both fundamental and thematic factors to refine the portfolio[14][15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed and periodically rebalanced to maintain alignment with the strategy's objectives[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong ability to generate excess returns over the benchmark, showcasing its robustness in balancing defensive and growth-oriented attributes[22] 2. Model Name: "央国企高分红30组合" (Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model targets high-dividend stocks within central state-owned enterprises (SOEs), emphasizing stability and defensive characteristics[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio is constructed by selecting 30 high-dividend stocks from central SOEs[15] 2. It prioritizes companies with consistent dividend payouts and strong financial health[15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed to ensure alignment with its defensive strategy[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing stable returns, making it suitable for risk-averse investors seeking consistent income[22] 3. Model Name: "电子均衡配置增强组合" (Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to achieve balanced exposure within the electronics sector, focusing on diversification and stability[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio selects stocks across various sub-sectors within the electronics industry[15] 2. It employs a balanced allocation strategy to mitigate concentration risks[15] 3. The portfolio is periodically rebalanced to maintain its diversified structure[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated positive excess returns over the electronics sector index, indicating its effectiveness in achieving balanced growth[32] 4. Model Name: "电子板块优选增强组合" (Electronics Sector Preferred Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying leading companies within mature sub-sectors of the electronics industry, emphasizing growth potential[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The portfolio targets mature sub-sector leaders with strong fundamentals and growth prospects[15] 2. It employs a factor-based approach to refine stock selection within the electronics sector[15] 3. The portfolio is actively managed to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the sector[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved significant excess returns over the electronics sector index, highlighting its ability to capture growth opportunities[32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "攻守兼备红利50组合" - Excess return over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index: 4.76% (YTD 2025)[22] - Weekly excess return: 0.85%[22] 2. "央国企高分红30组合" - Weekly excess return over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index: 0.11%[22] 3. "电子均衡配置增强组合" - Excess return over the electronics sector index (YTD 2025): 2.40%[32] 4. "电子板块优选增强组合" - Excess return over the electronics sector index (YTD 2025): 5.83%[32]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of QDII fund's regional allocation strategy, particularly the increased allocation to Hong Kong stocks, has drawn market attention as the second quarter reports are released [1][2]. Group 1: QDII Fund Allocation Changes - As of July 20, 37 QDII funds have allocated assets to Hong Kong stocks, with many increasing their holdings [1]. - The Nasdaq index's volatility in the first quarter prompted QDII funds to reduce their U.S. stock positions and shift towards the more favorably valued Hong Kong market [2]. - For instance, the allocation of the Chuangjin Hexin Global Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Stock Fund to U.S. stocks decreased from 39.04% at the end of last year to 29.33% by the end of the first quarter, while its Hong Kong stock allocation rose from 13.97% to 24.07% [2]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a core focus for QDII funds, with 38 funds investing a total of 33.147 billion yuan in this sector [4]. - The information technology industry, which includes sub-sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and software services, is the largest allocation area for QDII funds [4]. - Sixteen QDII funds maintain over 30% allocation to the information technology sector, with some, like the Chuangjin Hexin Global Chip Industry Stock Fund, increasing their allocation from 74.65% to 75.47% [4]. Group 3: Future Investment Trends - Many QDII funds are focusing on the AI industry chain as a key investment theme for the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of AI's development from foundational infrastructure to application scenarios [5]. - The trend of increasing allocation to Hong Kong stocks and focusing on technology reflects a rational response to global market valuation differences and an active grasp of industrial transformation opportunities [5]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to the technological barriers, global competitiveness, and policy adaptability of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong [5].

Group 1: Market Performance - Fund holdings outperformed northbound holdings, with non-fund holdings leading the gains[2] - The real estate sector showed significant growth, with a 6.07% increase, exceeding the overall A-share market by 4.37%[22] - The healthcare sector's leading stocks significantly outperformed the industry benchmark[4] Group 2: Market Trends - Market rotation speed across industries and styles remains high[4] - Small-cap and high-valuation stocks are currently favored, with the reversal index showing strong performance[4] - Digital currency and specialized innovation themes are leading the market[4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Non-fund holdings index gained 2.88%, while fund holdings index only increased by 1.16%[14] - The reversal index has shown a notable increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards recovery[26] - The specialized innovation 100 index rose by 3.61%, highlighting strong interest in niche sectors[28]

Core Insights - The key to understanding the capital cycle is recognizing how changes in capital allocation within an industry affect future returns, emphasizing the importance of supply-side changes over demand analysis [3] - Industry concentration exhibits an inverted U-shaped distribution throughout different stages of the corporate lifecycle, transitioning from high competition to oligopoly, with dividend yields increasing as companies evolve from recovery to maturity [3] - Current recommended secondary industries include aquaculture, animal health, components, consumer electronics, communication services, advertising, television broadcasting, real estate services, shipping ports, logistics, and railroads [3] Section Summaries 01 Capital Cycle: Supply and Concentration Considerations - The capital cycle framework prioritizes supply and concentration changes over economic conditions, indicating that supply fluctuations drive industry profitability [4] 02 Historical Positioning of Capital Cycles in Sub-Industries - The report categorizes 124 sub-industries based on their capital cycle status from Q3 2008 to Q1 2025, using concentration, profit growth, and capital expenditure growth as key indicators [27] 03 Current Capital Cycle Stages of Various Industries - The analysis identifies industries in optimal or suboptimal capital cycle phases, allowing for targeted investment recommendations [39] 04 Capital Cycle Principles and Case Studies in the US and Japan - The report discusses the principles of capital cycles in the US and Japan, providing case studies that illustrate the application of these principles across different market environments [4] 05 Viewing Capital Cycles Through the Lens of "Anti-Overwork" - The report suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by a push against overwork, influences capital allocation and industry dynamics [4]

Market Performance - The northbound heavy positions outperformed the fund heavy positions, with a weekly return of 1.73% compared to 1.60% for the fund heavy index[10] - The overall market showed a slight acceleration in industry and style rotation[4] Sector Highlights - The healthcare sector led with a weekly increase of 3.63%, outperforming the overall A-share market by 2.42%[19] - The financial sector also performed well, with a weekly gain of 1.99%, exceeding the A-share benchmark by 0.77%[19] Investment Style - Low valuation stocks showed the highest gains, with the low valuation index rising by 3.23%[23] - Large-cap and low-volatility stocks dominated the performance, indicating a preference for stability in the current market environment[21] Thematic Trends - The Low Carbon Leaders 30 index was the top performer among themes, with a weekly increase of over 3%[25] - The carbon neutrality series also showed positive returns, with the Longjiang Carbon Neutral Index rising by 2.16%[25]

Market Performance - The TMT sector has shown the highest growth, with the telecommunications sector leading the industry[2] - Non-fund heavy positions have outperformed, indicating a strong institutional profit effect[4] - The market rotation speed remains high across styles and industries, suggesting active trading conditions[4] Investment Themes - The "East Data West Computing" and "Carbon Neutrality" themes are currently leading in market interest[2] - Small-cap and high-valuation stocks are favored, with the ChiNext Growth Index showing significant gains[4] - The ChiNext Growth Index has reported a weekly return of 6.58%, outperforming other indices[22] Sector Analysis - The telecommunications sector achieved a return of 3.82%, exceeding the overall A-share market by 2.21%[17] - The information technology and hardware sector followed closely with a return of 3.45%[17] - The materials sector also performed well, with a return of 2.69%[17] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the potential for market volatility[26]