经济观察网 根据公开信息，ST春天（600381.SH）近期收到监管函的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 监管关注的核心问题 2026年2月6日，公司公告收到上海证券交易所《2025年业绩预告相关事项的监管工作函》，重点关注三 大问题： 收入确认合规性：要求公司说明2025年第四季度收入（1.30亿至1.58亿元，占全年近40%）暴增的原因 及合理性，并提供资金流、货物流与终端销售匹配证据，排查是否存在关联交易或规避退市的突击交 易。 营业收入扣除：要求逐项核查是否存在应扣未扣收入。2025年公司预告扣除后营收为3.38亿至3.67亿 元，略高于3亿元退市红线，但年审会计师称无法确认该指标真实性。 资金占用风险：公司向控股股东关联方宜宾听花的预付投资款（截至2025年三季度余额1.73亿元）到期 后转为借款，若审计前无法收回，年审会计师将出具无法表示意见的审计报告，直接触发退市。 退市风险加剧 监管函直指公司可能触及的多重退市指标： 财务类退市：若扣除后营收低于3亿元且净利润为负（2025年预告净利润-4400万至-5950万元）。 审计意见类退市：若借款回收无进展导致审计报告"无法表示意见"。 规范类退市：若查 ...

编者按 2026年农历新年的临近，过去一年表现跌宕起伏的酒水行业开启了新的一年。 作为每年传统旺季，消费者在农历新年中庞大的消费需求，催生了酒水消费的旺盛，在日常遭遇压力的 酒水产品，在旺季之中压力似乎都得到了释放。 在此环境下，今年初的酒水行业表现出哪些重要趋势、变化与现象？南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题 组对此进行深入报道。 在农历新年前夕，英国威士忌进口关税有所下降，这对我国现有的威士忌市场格局影响有多大？ 近期，国务院关税税则委员会公告，自2026年2月2日起，对威士忌酒实施5%的进口暂定税率，对比此 前的15%综合税率可谓大幅下降，这对于每年威士忌进口量排名第一的英国威士忌（主要系苏格兰威士 忌）来说，无疑是一次降低成本的利好。 据南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者了解，进口关税下降将一定程度降低英国威士忌的推广成 本，这对目前全球发展受阻的英国威士忌带来利好和新增量。但对于正在崛起的国产威士忌而言，未来 一年无疑要与"威士忌头部产地"进行"硬碰硬"。 英国威士忌全球"过不好" 中国降税或有助于增加收益 据了解，在本次关税下降前，包括英国威士忌在内曾经历过为期超过1年的加税。 2025年1月1日， ...

随着农历新年的脚步临近，一年中最为隆重的传统佳节即将到来。春节不仅凝聚着深厚的文化底蕴与情 感寄托，也在经济层面扮演着承前启后的重要角色。正因如此，春节市场历来是商家竞相布局的关键赛 道。 在酒水行业，这一现象尤为突出。饮酒习俗早已深深融入春节文化之中，无论是家庭团聚、亲朋走动， 还是宴请赠礼、个人小酌，酒都是不可或缺的情感载体。因此，每年春节前后，酒水市场总会迎来全年 最旺盛的销售高峰。深谙此道的百年糊涂，今年早早启动春节营销布局，推出多项迎新春活动。尤其是 百福6#"开盖扫码赢好礼"活动，以丰厚的奖项设置、直击人心的情绪价值以及过硬的产品品质，成功吸 引了大量消费者的关注与参与。 据悉，百福6#开盖扫码惊喜活动是在以往扫码赢奖基础上的升级版。活动期间，消费者购买百年糊涂百 福6#酒品，有可能参与开瓶扫码赢再来一瓶活动；同时，开盖扫码还有双重惊喜，有机会赢得999元红 包，扫码即刻到账，不卡顿、不套路、不设门槛，开瓶那一刻，好运和酒香一起扑面而来。 百年糊涂敏锐洞察当下年轻消费的底层逻辑，不讲大道理，只做小确幸：百福6#瓶身扫码赢好酒，瓶盖 扫码赢千元红包，综合中奖率100%。双重叠加的幸福感，更深层地挖掘 ...

近年来，人们对于春节的情感寄托愈发细腻而深沉。在生活与工作压力双重夹击下，"年味"不再只是红 纸灯笼的视觉符号，更成了可触摸、可兑现、可分享的情绪货币。同时，年轻消费者在市场中占比愈加 增大，他们对于春节的消费意愿更为突出。他们更追究"仪式感"和"情价比"，更希望消费带来的不只是 单纯的物质满足，而是情绪的即时回响，是情感共振与文化认同。 随着农历新年的脚步临近，一年中最为隆重的传统佳节即将到来。春节不仅凝聚着深厚的文化底蕴与情 感寄托，也在经济层面扮演着承前启后的重要角色。正因如此，春节市场历来是商家竞相布局的关键赛 道。 在酒水行业，这一现象尤为突出。饮酒习俗早已深深融入春节文化之中，无论是家庭团聚、亲朋走动， 还是宴请赠礼、个人小酌，酒都是不可或缺的情感载体。因此，每年春节前后，酒水市场总会迎来全年 最旺盛的销售高峰。深谙此道的百年糊涂，今年早早启动春节营销布局，推出多项迎新春活动。尤其是 百福6#"开盖扫码赢好礼"活动，以丰厚的奖项设置、直击人心的情绪价值以及过硬的产品品质，成功吸 引了大量消费者的关注与参与。 据悉，百福6#开盖扫码惊喜活动是在以往扫码赢奖基础上的升级版。活动期间，消费者购买百年糊涂 ...

而对于具体投资方向，姜禄彦认为，2026年消费品投资品领域具备较多结构性投资机会。 （来源：经济参考报） 诺德基金研究员姜禄彦近期发表市场观点表示，从2023年以来，传统消费板块整体经历调整，供需结构 逐步匹配，库存去化也较为充分。从2025年三季度开始，传统消费在多个维度都呈现了触底回升迹象。 展望2026年，传统消费在政策支持、周期规律以及较低基数的作用下有望呈现一定的复苏态势。 "互联网巨头的线下支付数据于2025年二三季度转正，其中三季度线下支付增长加速。餐饮消费方面， 头部火锅品牌翻台率降幅持续收窄，2025年8月份后逐步恢复至持平区间。出行相关数据方面，三大酒 店集团自2025年9月以来ADR转正，RevPar降幅持续收窄。三大航空公司票价降幅持续收窄，并于9月 转正，四季度维持正增长。"谈及行业中观维度，姜禄彦表示。 展望2026年，姜禄彦认为，政策将对消费更加支持，中央经济工作会议将"实施消费升级行动，扩大重 点领域消费"放在首要位置。同时，国内强大的制造业和科技产业也为经济发展注入了新的动能。叠加 2025年外在因素对顺周期消费的冲击导致的低基数，2026年传统消费的景气度有望进一步改善，复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional consumer sector is expected to show signs of recovery in 2026 after a three-year adjustment period, supported by policy measures, cyclical patterns, and a low base effect from 2025 [1][3][7] Industry Overview - Since 2023, various segments of the consumer market, including liquor, beer, condiments, frozen foods, dining, travel, and hotels, have undergone adjustments to achieve supply-demand balance and inventory reduction [2][10] - By the third quarter of 2025, signs of bottoming out in the consumer sector were observed across multiple dimensions [2][11] Consumer Trends - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, with brands like Hermès and Prada reporting continuous same-store sales growth, while Louis Vuitton and Burberry have seen a narrowing of same-store sales declines [2][12] - The restaurant sector is also improving, with major hot pot brands experiencing a reduction in turnover rate declines, returning to stable levels by late 2025 [2][12] - The travel sector has seen positive trends, with major hotel groups reporting a turnaround in average daily rates (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPar) since September 2025 [2][12] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained low from February to September 2025 but returned to positive growth in October, reaching 0.7-0.8% in November and December, the highest since the pandemic [3][13] Investment Directions - The investment landscape for consumer goods in 2026 presents numerous structural opportunities, focusing on new industry trends, new product cycles, and investments in companies at the bottom of the cycle [4][14] - A new industry trend, "hard discount retail," is emerging, characterized by direct sourcing and reduced channel costs, particularly in the snack food category [4][14] - New product cycles are being driven by innovative items like electrolyte water and konjac snacks, which are gaining popularity and market share [5][15] - The liquor sector remains a focal point for investors due to its strong brand positioning and potential for market share growth, especially as demand is expected to recover in 2026 [6][16][17]

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been fluctuating downwards since the beginning of the year, with notable investor Duan Yongping expressing that the current price is "really not expensive" when viewed over a longer time frame [2] - Duan Yongping plans to increase his holdings in Guizhou Moutai by purchasing 20,000 shares at a price of 1,365 yuan, amounting to approximately 27.3 million yuan, demonstrating his confidence in the company's long-term value [2] - Public funds' allocation to the liquor sector is currently low, with their holdings in Guizhou Moutai decreasing to 1,919,970 shares, down from 1,964,840 shares at the end of the third quarter of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The allocation of public funds in the liquor sector has dropped from a peak of 16% in 2020 to the current 3.93%, which is below historical levels and indicates a potential for recovery in the sector [3] - Active equity funds have maintained a low allocation to the liquor sector for six consecutive quarters, with the current allocation at a historically low level, suggesting a potential for future increases [3] - The overall liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth and structural optimization due to factors such as rational consumer behavior, regulatory policies, and excess production capacity [3] Group 3 - Institutions predict that the actual sales of liquor during the 2026 Spring Festival will remain stable, considering various factors such as the extended holiday and consumption scenarios [4] - The liquor industry is expected to benefit from upcoming Spring Festival marketing activities, with channels learning from leading companies' experiences in reforming channels and products [4] - The industry may refocus on market cultivation and consumer education to promote sales and reduce burdens on distributors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of the Tashkent City Market Supervision Administration to combat excessive packaging of holiday gift boxes ahead of the Spring Festival, aiming to regulate market order and promote environmentally friendly consumption practices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Market Supervision Administration is conducting a special inspection focusing on holiday gift boxes, particularly in supermarkets and New Year markets [1] - The inspection targets food, local specialties, and popular holiday items such as tea and alcohol [1] - Enforcement personnel are checking compliance with packaging layer regulations and measuring packaging void ratios to prevent oversized packaging [1] Group 2: Cost Control Measures - The administration aims to control the proportion of packaging costs to avoid increasing consumer burdens and prohibits the use of expensive materials like precious metals and hardwoods for packaging [1] - Businesses are urged to strictly implement procurement verification responsibilities [1] Group 3: Compliance and Future Actions - As of now, 11 businesses have been inspected, with one ordered to rectify its practices [1] - The Market Supervision Administration plans to continue enhancing regulatory efforts to create a green, low-carbon, and environmentally friendly holiday consumption environment [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant surge in alcohol consumption during the pre-Spring Festival period, driven by both gifting and personal enjoyment demands, with notable growth in various alcohol categories compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - Tmall's New Year Festival data indicates that alcohol sales experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with categories like baijiu, wine, and spirits showing higher sales, while beer, fruit wine, and health-focused alcoholic beverages saw even faster growth, with beer sales doubling [1] - On January 19, the Tmall alcohol festival recorded over 100 million in transactions, with more than 50 alcohol live-streaming sessions, and brands like Wuliangye, Moutai, and Jian Nan Chun achieving sales exceeding one million [1] - Certain products from brands such as Wuliangye, Penfolds, and Remy Martin saw year-on-year sales growth exceeding 200% [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The demand for gifting during the Spring Festival is particularly evident, with most top-selling products being gift boxes and bulk packaging, especially among younger consumers who favor new and limited edition packaging [2] - The growth of low-alcohol beverages indicates a shift towards self-indulgence in alcohol consumption, with women under 30 being the primary drivers of this trend, reflecting a stronger emotional value in alcohol consumption [2] - The health and wellness trend is influencing alcohol consumption, with sales of health-focused alcoholic beverages increasing by nearly 50% year-on-year during the festival, and a specific two-bottle New Year gift box becoming one of the fastest-growing products, with a 400-fold increase in sales compared to the previous year, predominantly among female consumers [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that *ST Chuntian (sh600381) reached its daily limit with a price of 4.33 yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase and a total market capitalization of 2.542 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The potential reasons for *ST Chuntian's limit-up include its dual business segments: the liquor fast-moving consumer goods sector and the health sector focused on the research, production, and sales of Cordyceps products. The gradual recovery of the consumer market is expected to support demand in both sectors, contributing to performance growth [2] - The company is set to release its annual report on April 21, 2026, and there are optimistic market expectations regarding its performance. A strong annual report could positively impact the stock price, leading investors to position themselves in advance, thus driving the stock price up [2] - Recent market trends show that both the liquor and health sectors have gained momentum, with related stocks performing well, creating a sectoral synergy effect. Data from Dongfang Caifu indicates that there has been a notable inflow of funds into these sectors, contributing to *ST Chuntian's limit-up [2] - Technical analysis from Tonghuashun indicates signs of capital inflow on the day of the limit-up, reflecting market interest and optimism towards the stock, although specific technical indicators are not provided [2]