随着美国最高法院最早可能于本周五对特朗普总统备受争议的关税政策做出最终裁决，一场规模空前的 法律"围攻"正在华盛顿上演。超过1000家企业已正式提起诉讼，试图推翻现行关税政策，并寻求退还在 过去数月间支付的巨额税款。 据彭博报道，这一诉讼浪潮是在最高法院于去年11月5日的听证会上对特朗普的贸易政策表现出怀疑态 度后爆发的。随着裁决日的临近，包括全球知名零售商和制造商在内的数百家企业不再观望，纷纷加入 诉讼行列，使得涉及的法律实体总数突破1000家。若政府败诉，这将引发一场关于如何退还已征收税款 的复杂博弈。 根据官方最新报告，截至去年12月14日，美国政府依据紧急权力法案征收的关税总额已达约1330亿美 元。特朗普此前曾警告称，如果被迫退还这些关税，将是一场"国家安全灾难"。他在周二对众议院共和 党人的讲话中重申，总统必须拥有通过关税进行谈判的能力，并寄望最高法院能做出"正确的事情"。 尽管最高法院尚未确认是否会在本周五发布的意见中包含关税案，但对于数以千计的进口商而言，这一 裁决不仅关乎数十亿美元的现金流，更将决定未来美国贸易政策的法律边界。即便最高法院宣布关税非 法，具体的退款流程仍可能交由下级法院处理， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 国货护肤林清轩港股 IPO，看好新消费 景气度延续 ——新消费行业周报（20251229-20260102） [Table_Summary] 主要观点 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.12.29-2026.1.2），A 股 SW 商贸零售行 业指数下跌 1.63%，而沪深 300 下跌 0.59%，上证指数上涨 0.13%。 商贸零售在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 26 位。 [行Ta业bl:e_Indu商st贸ry]零售 二、核心逻辑： [T分ab析le师_A:utho杜r]洋 美妆个护：我们认为美护行业正从"渗透率扩张"转向"品质升级"， 美妆赛道已从"流量红利"步入"品牌红利"时代，建议关注"悦己 刚需+国货替代+技术优势+渠道迭代"四条主线。 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《双十一国货领跑，关注理性消费和即时 零售》 《10 月 CPI 同比转正，关注提振消费方 向》 《波司登推出 AREAL 高端线，关注冬装 销售》 行业周报 林清轩上市：定位国货高端护肤，深耕山茶花原料以油养肤。林清轩 于 2025 年 12 月 30 日正式登陆港交所，林清轩招股价 ...

1月7日，全球最大消费品私募股权投资机构路威凯腾（L Catterton）正式宣布与中国高端美妆领军者毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司达成战略合作框架协议。 双方将在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构优化、人才引进与治理等多个维度展开深度协同。双方计划共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权 投资基金。 毛戈平集团2024年登陆香港交易所主板，荣膺"国货高端美妆第一股"之称。旗下拥有超过400个SKU，覆盖彩妆、护肤、香水三大品类。品牌在全国高端 百货渠道已设立超过400个专柜，并连续多年在LVMH旗下高端美妆零售商丝芙兰系统中稳居国货销量榜首。 路威凯腾成立于1989年，自2016年Catterton基金与LVMH集团旗下L Capital合并以来，掌管着高达390亿美元的股权资本，关注消费类赛道，投资足迹遍布 全球，累计完成超过300笔消费行业投资，构建起覆盖食品饮料、宠物经济、美妆个护、奢侈品、餐饮零售等多个核心赛道的宏大产业版图。 自2021年在北京设立办公室以来，路威凯腾加快在中国市场的本土化布局步伐。从与金融城资本合作在成都开展首支人民币基金的落地，到投资喜茶、元 气森林等新消费代表品牌，再到布局高端宠物 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the e-commerce sector, particularly during the off-peak periods, highlighting the importance of brand operations and consumer engagement strategies [2][5]. Core Insights - The Chinese online consumer brand index (CBI) shows a year-on-year growth of 0.9% in Q3 2023, reflecting a sustained increase in consumer willingness to spend during off-peak periods [2][4]. - Brands are increasingly viewing off-peak periods as critical for building long-term value and operational stability, focusing on customer retention and repeat purchases [5][35]. - The report emphasizes the necessity for brands to optimize their operations during off-peak times to leverage the momentum gained during major sales events like "618" and "Double Eleven" [2][4]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The CBI data indicates that the online consumer brand index has consistently risen during the off-peak periods, suggesting that these times are not void of consumer demand but rather a phase for rational brand selection [4][6]. - The report notes that the online retail sales growth rate is significantly higher than the overall retail market, with a 4.4% increase compared to Q3 2022 [2][7]. Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Sector - The FMCG sector shows a stark contrast between online and offline sales, with online sales growing by 16.8% while offline sales declined by 9.3% in Q3 2025 [10]. - Specific categories like dairy and maternal and infant products are experiencing varied growth rates, with dairy products showing a decline of 16.6% [10][11]. Brand Strategies - Brands are focusing on scenario-driven marketing and consumer engagement during off-peak periods, utilizing emotional value and social gifting to enhance consumer experiences [25][28]. - The report highlights the importance of creating a stable sales curve by integrating products into specific lifestyle scenarios, thereby enhancing brand loyalty and repeat purchases [35][40]. Consumer Behavior Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards products that resonate with social and emotional contexts, particularly among younger demographics [32][33]. - The report identifies a trend towards "self-reward" and "quality socializing" in the alcohol sector, with brands adapting to younger consumers' preferences for lower alcohol content and convenient packaging [28][30]. Operational Recommendations - Brands are encouraged to leverage platform tools for precise consumer targeting and to maintain a robust membership system to optimize traffic during off-peak periods [39][41]. - The report suggests that successful brands will be those that can effectively convert new product launches and seasonal changes into repeat purchases during these critical off-peak times [40].

2025 年，消费品行业从高增长回落至结构分化阶段。奢侈品、美妆与食品饮料不再具备天然抗 周期属性，消费者对"价值、健康与透明度"的要求显著提升。 在增速放缓、成本与可持续压力叠加的背景下，企业竞争焦点正从规模扩张转向护城河重构，决 定胜负的关键在于产品组合、运营效率与技术赋能能力。 奢侈品进入 1%–3% 低增长区间，关键市场逆风与提价触顶叠加，消费者更看重价值与透明度；品牌需强化独 特性、升级体验并精简运营以穿越周期。 从2025年纽约消费者分析师峰会(CAGNY)看全球消费趋势 全球消费品巨头将高端化、健康创新、AI 提效与全球拓展作为主线，以 RGM+成本管控+并购把握不确定性中 的股东价值兑现。 行业遇冷，奢侈品牌生存与突破之道——科尔尼2025奢侈品行业展望发布 食品饮料行业在需求多元化与格局重塑中寻找创新路径；行业共识转向"高质量增长"，强调产业协同、创新与 结构升级。 印度在财富增长与开放环境下成为奢侈品重要增量市场；品牌需把握本地文化与消费升级节奏，构建可复制的 增长模型。 科尔尼全球合伙人刘晓龙出席2025全国糖酒会主论坛，暨《全球食品饮料行业趋势洞察报告》首发 印度：下一个奢侈品热土？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Unilever's strategic shift towards growth through organizational changes, particularly the promotion of Leandro Barreto to Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), which reflects the company's focus on a consumer-centric growth model and enhanced marketing strategies [5][14][25]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Unilever announced the promotion of Leandro Barreto to CMO, effective January 1, 2026, expanding his responsibilities to oversee the entire marketing function of the company [3][5]. - This leadership change is part of a broader organizational restructuring involving adjustments to 200 senior management positions as part of an operational and organizational transformation plan [5][17]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - Unilever is shifting its marketing strategy to prioritize social media, increasing its advertising budget on these platforms from 30% to 50% of total ad spending [13][25]. - The company aims to enhance its engagement with consumers through localized and refined marketing efforts, including a significant increase in collaborations with Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) [13][14]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Unilever's beauty and wellness segment saw a 5.1% increase in underlying sales, driven by both volume and price contributions [11]. - The personal care segment also performed well, with a 4.1% increase in underlying sales, largely attributed to successful innovations in brands like Dove [11][12]. Group 4: Brand and Portfolio Strategy - Unilever is undergoing a significant brand and category restructuring, with plans to streamline its brand portfolio to focus on high-growth and core brands, aiming to reduce the total number of brands to under 200 [19][20]. - The company has already divested over 20 beauty or personal care brands since 2023, including the sale of non-core assets like Suave and the Eli d a Beauty unit [20][21]. Group 5: Market Focus - China has emerged as a key market for Unilever, showing low single-digit sales growth amidst overall company challenges, and is identified as a critical target for high-end beauty and health business expansion [28][29]. - The company is adapting its research and marketing strategies in China to align with local consumer demands, emphasizing high-value skincare and beauty products [28][39].

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience and vitality of the Chinese consumer market amidst global economic slowdown and uncertainty, indicating a shift from being the "world's factory" to a global leader in innovation and trends [1][5] - The concept of "new consumption" is redefined, driven by digital technology, online-offline integration, and new consumer relationships based on social networks, emphasizing digitalization, personalization, socialization, and quality [2][5] Market Overview - China's consumption structure is transitioning from material-based to service-oriented, with rapid growth in service consumption expenditures becoming a new engine for market growth [1][5] - Government policies are aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand through income distribution reforms and enhanced social security [1][5] Industry Insights - The restaurant industry is experiencing structural adjustments with increased chain rates and the rise of "satellite stores" due to the importance of delivery channels [3] - In the food and beverage sector, health and emotional value are key themes, with consumers becoming more rational about ingredient research and emotional value driving purchasing decisions [3] - The retail sector is facing disruption from "hard discount" models, while immersive experiences and business model integration are crucial for attracting foot traffic [3] - The consumer electronics industry is leveraging AI advancements, with rapid growth in AI smartphone penetration and the AI toy market driven by lower technology costs and educational upgrades [3] Brand Strategy - New consumption brands must focus on "adaptability" and "community" to enhance operational resilience and build deep relationships with consumers based on shared values [2][5] - The report introduces the "VIG Compass" brand strength evaluation model, assessing brands across three dimensions: brand voice, core strength, and growth potential [4][30] Future Outlook - The Chinese new consumption market is characterized by a continuous reshaping of rules, with growth logic shifting from external dividends to internal innovation and value creation [5] - Future winners will be those brands that deeply understand and integrate into local cultural dynamics while optimizing operational efficiency and establishing emotional connections with users [5]

"透视图"栏目在年终特别策划了"36氪年度透视"系列，用数据透视2025全年趋势，以图片呈现今年商业世界中不可错过的要点。 这是我们的第7期内容。 作者｜贺哲馨 当"国货"从一种情怀沉淀为生活的背景色，中国消费市场正迎来一场静默而深刻的权力更迭。 据Euromonitor数据显示，2012年至2024年间，在涵盖护肤、彩妆等27个快消品类中，本土品牌的市场份额已从66%稳步攀升至76%。尤其在服饰鞋履赛道， 2025年将迎来一个历史性的分水岭：本土品牌预计将占据50%的江山，正式与外资平分秋色。 然而，覆盖变广了，并不等同于真正变强了。 奢侈品 0 0 6 ● 美妆个护 0 C B 0 本土品牌集 场蛋糕被大 0 服饰鞋包 0 摊，缺乏强 O ® 0 0 0 0 数据来源: euromonitor, 2024 U 36氪制图 透过数据我们发现，国货的"主场时代"仍带着明显的结构性阵痛： 36氪制图 大而不强：相比于外资巨头极高的品牌势能，本土服饰鞋履品牌表现出明显的"长尾效应"。前20大品牌市场份额（CR20）仅占不到16%，大量中小品 牌在摊薄利润的同时，也让市场缺乏具有绝对统治力的领军者。 36氪制图 昂 ...

当文创的风吹进护手霜赛道，全国各大景区、商业街已陆续涌现出多家文创护手霜门店。 作为遍布全国各地的"特产"，文创护手霜渐渐成为旅游伴手礼的新首选 。 魔镜洞察 . 作为AI赋能的市场研究和消费者洞察公司，魔镜洞察用机器学习和AI算法，帮助品牌从海量的市场信息 中提取高增长的、有投资价值的新机会。通过SaaS系统和行业市场洞察，我们服务于数百个品牌。 以下文章来源于魔镜洞察 ，作者Darlira 对应城市热门景点的限定包装，生肖、姓氏、星座等不同主题包装，365天生日花专属香调……原本的 日常护理单品，如今既是游客随手购入的"伴手礼新宠"，更成为年轻人社交圈的"打卡道具"。 这场"文创+护手霜"的跨界热潮，为何能在景区持续升温？ 01 景区文创护手霜： 场景与情感的双重胜利 以高颜值包装赋予产品充足的情绪价值。 365天生日花、十二星座、专属姓氏、城市限定等多元主题， 结合花果香、木质香等不同香调，让每一款护手霜都承载了专属意义，极大提升了使用与赠送的仪式 感。 这一模式下，青稚、荔秋、春弦等品牌迅速崛起。 其中青稚的表现尤为亮眼，魔镜分析+ 统计数据显 示，2025年10月，其销售额达227万元，销量达3.2 ...

以渠道为脉络 构建可持续增长韧性 近日，法国百年SPA奢护养发品牌FORVIL旗下核心产品线正式入驻高端美妆集合品牌HARMAY话梅， 于全国23家门店同步上架。此次合作，远非一次简单的渠道进驻，而是品牌在中国市场完成"线上全域 覆盖，线下精准卡位"立体化零售网络后的关键一跃。它标志着FORVIL正以渠道为脉络，将其源自法国 的百年奢护体验，深度织入中国当代潮流生活的肌理，并在其全球化战略蓝图上，落下承前启后的重要 一子。 着眼全球 持续深化全球化战略布局 在HARMAY话梅全国各大门店，FORVIL温莎森林将其标志性的头皮微生态平衡系列、复刻百年传奇的 黑珍珠护发精油、以及满足密集修护需求的深润修护精华发膜等产品带入这一汇聚全球先锋美妆力的空 间，诠释品牌"以护肤重新定义护发"的理念。 选择HARMAY话梅作为战略合作伙伴，是基于双方对高品质商品与卓越消费体验的一致追求。 HARMAY话梅作为主打美妆及生活品类的零售连锁，凭借其独特的策展式零售模式和深厚的年轻高净 值客群基础，成为国际品牌与中国消费者进行深度对话的重要场域。落户HARMAY话梅，是FORVIL在 中国市场渠道网络日益缜密、布局日趋成熟的自然 ...