沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai lead futures may experience wide - range fluctuations after a decline. Although the domestic supply and demand both increase, the low - level inventory continues to rise, causing the supply - demand situation to weaken marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend. Mid - term attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Changes Processing Fees In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrates in physical volume, with a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average level in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the tight situation of domestic mines continued. The processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat. For spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat [2]. Supply In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, and the monthly output was higher than expected; the output of recycled refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. For primary lead enterprises, there were both maintenance and resumption of production, and the supply increased mainly on a month - on - month basis. The operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces monitored by SMM was 50.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. The refined lead import window remained open, and the import profit margin narrowed slightly. The cost of waste batteries increased, and the profit of recycled lead was still acceptable, with only a slight narrowing of profit. The future growth of recycled lead production was limited but still had room for improvement [3]. Consumption Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces monitored by SMM was 70.77%, a week - on - week increase of 4.18%. After the New Year's Day holiday, lead - acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production, and the weekly operating rate increased. In December, the inventory in the battery industry chain accumulated, and in November, the net export of lead - acid batteries decreased month - on - month. In January, orders decreased, and the production enthusiasm was lower than that in December. Orders from automotive battery and energy - storage battery enterprises were relatively stable, and medium - and large - sized enterprises' production was okay. The operating rates of medium - and large - sized enterprises ranged from 60% to 80%, and a few enterprises even considered early holidays before the Spring Festival. Due to changes in tariff policies, orders from some export - oriented enterprises were sluggish, and there were large differences in the operating rates of production enterprises. At the initial stage of implementing the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more wait - and - see, and the production of electric bicycles declined [4]. Spot As of the week ending January 16, the domestic lead spot basis turned to a premium, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 115 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.18 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory As of the week ending January 16, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,375 tons to 206,400 tons. The LME inventory had been falling continuously from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 6,933 tons to 37,044 tons. As of January 15, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions monitored by SMM reached 27,400 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. 2. Market Outlook and Strategy The LME lead inventory has been falling continuously, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains in a deep discount state, indicating that the overseas lead supply - demand surplus situation continues. The import volume of lead ore increased month - on - month in November, slightly higher than the average level, but the increment was limited. Due to the seasonal off - season of domestic mines in winter, the domestic mine supply remains in a deficit state, and domestic processing fees are operating at a low level. For primary lead, there are both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating rate has increased slightly; the cost of waste batteries has increased, the profit of recycled lead is still acceptable, and the profit has only narrowed slightly. The future growth of recycled lead production is limited but still has room for improvement. The Shanghai - London price ratio has decreased slightly, the domestic import window remains open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. Overall, the domestic supply and demand both increase, but the low - level inventory continues to rise, and the supply - demand situation weakens marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend after a decline [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of lead in China is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and overseas lead concentrate processing fees remain stable at a low level. The domestic monthly processing fee in January is 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged month - on - month. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore is 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply** - **Primary Lead**: In December 2025, the primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters last week was 66.60%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Some smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, South China, and East China have production fluctuations, maintenance, or delayed resumption of production [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In December 2025, the secondary refined lead output was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead last week was 49.01%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. After the environmental protection control was lifted, the production of secondary lead enterprises in Anhui gradually resumed. Some enterprises in Henan increased or decreased production due to different reasons. Some large smelters in Inner Mongolia expressed the intention to stop production. The raw material inventory of secondary lead enterprises has further declined, and the later supply release pressure is still limited. The import window of refined lead continues to open, and the profit has increased [3]. - **Consumption** - The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises last week was 65.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. After the holiday factor is eliminated, the production of lead - acid battery enterprises will continue to recover. The operating rate of large battery enterprises is 70 - 80%, and that of small and medium - sized battery enterprises is about 70%. The finished battery inventory is generally more than 22 days. The energy storage and automobile sectors drive the consumption resilience, but the sales of new - standard electric two - wheeled vehicles are poor, and some enterprises' orders have shrunk [4]. - As of the week of January 9, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated, and the lead spot basis was at a discount of 15 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be at a deep discount, with a discount of - 44.05 US dollars at the end of last week [4]. - **Inventory** - As of the week of January 9, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,600 tons to 222,700 tons, and the LME inventory has continuously declined from a high level but is still at a high level in recent years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,107 tons to 30,111 tons. As of January 12, the total social inventory of SMM's five - place lead ingots reached 24,800 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas, the LME lead inventory has continuously declined from a high level, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains at a deep discount, indicating a continued oversupply situation. The import of lead ore in November increased month - on - month, but the increase was limited, and the domestic mine supply still has a gap. The operating rate of primary lead remains high; the profit of secondary lead is acceptable, but the raw material inventory has further decreased, and the later supply pressure is limited. The import window of lead ingots continues to open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. - Downstream, the energy storage and automobile sectors still drive the consumption resilience, but the consumption of electric bicycles is weak. The domestic lead inventory is accumulating at a low level. Overall, although there are both production cuts and resumptions in China, the supply pressure is not large due to raw material shortages. However, the pressure of import inflow has increased, and the domestic lead supply - demand has weakened marginally. Considering the short - term low domestic inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of lead is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, the supply-demand weakness of lead products is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector, the demand in the off-season is even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Material End - In December, the lead concentrate market continued the pattern of loose supply abroad and tight supply at home. The output of domestic lead concentrates was about 141,000 metal tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. The import volume in November was 123,000 physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The cumulative import for the whole year exceeded 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The processing fees continued to decline, and the profits of smelters were further compressed [1] - Due to the seasonal increase in the scrap volume at the end of the year, the recycling volume of waste batteries increased by about 8% month-on-month, but the tax-inclusive price remained firm at 9,950 yuan/ton. The loss of secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -350 yuan/ton, but the procurement was still cautious [1] Primary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December, the operating capacity of primary lead first decreased and then increased. SMM estimated that the output of electrolytic lead in December was 275,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,000 tons. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2] - In December, the import window of lead ingots continued to open, with about 15,000 tons flowing in from bonded area inventories. Exports remained sluggish, with only a small number of long-term orders to Southeast Asia being executed. The net import for the whole month was 13,000 tons, marking the third consecutive month of net imports [2] Secondary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December 2025, the secondary lead sector continued the cycle of losses leading to production cuts. SMM predicted that the output of secondary refined lead in December was only 112,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [3] - Due to intensified domestic losses, smelters increased the import of crude lead to reduce costs. The export of secondary alloy ingots was affected by anti-dumping duties in Southeast Asia, with only 4,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20%. The export of secondary lead-related products showed negative growth for the first time in the whole year [3] Consumption End - In December, the lead-acid battery market was even weaker in the off-season. The export of lead batteries in December was 17.5 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The cumulative export for the whole year was about 215 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, the first annual negative growth since 2015 [4] - The average price of 48V12Ah batteries in December was 268 yuan/group, a month-on-month decrease of 2%. Battery manufacturers generally adopted a strategy of reducing prices to maintain sales volume, but still could not offset the shrinking demand, and the finished product inventory rose to 45 days, the highest level in the same period in the past three years [4] Inventory End - In December, the inventory trends at home and abroad continued to diverge. As of December 27, the lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the end of November, a decrease of 16%. The LME inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 261,000 tons at the end of the month, a month-on-month increase of 11,000 tons [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] - Basis Strategy: It is recommended to continue holding mainstream deliverable products and sell far-month contracts, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm after the festival and the resumption of production progress of secondary lead [9]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply Side**: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]

Core Insights - The article reports on a survey conducted by Mysteel involving 35 domestic primary lead smelting enterprises, covering a total capacity of 4.567 million tons, which represents a coverage rate of 92.56% [1] - It forecasts that the domestic primary lead production will reach 272,800 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 950 tons or 3.61%, and a year-on-year growth of 6.48% [1] - The expected production for November 2025 is projected to rise to 284,700 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - At present, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant fundamental contradictions. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mainly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 10, the quotation divergence in the imported ore market continued. With the silver price hitting new highs, the processing fee for silver - containing lead concentrates continued to decline. Domestically, some mines completed fourth - quarter pre - sales and suspended quotations, leading to a shortage of market - circulating resources. There were north - south differences in smelter processing fees. The winter - storage order processing fee in Henan and Inner Mongolia was 300 - 500 yuan/metal ton, while in Yunnan and Hunan, due to the decline in raw material inventory, some smelters could only purchase low - silver ore sources at 0 - 200 yuan/metal ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrates is difficult to improve [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was stable at 68.47%, a slight increase of 1.98% compared to before the holiday. A smelter in Henan resumed production as planned, increasing output slightly, while a company in Hunan was expected to see a decline in electrolytic lead output in October due to crude lead maintenance. Overall, the operating situation showed regional differentiation [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces rose to 34.04%, an increase of 5.63 percentage points. Anhui was the main driving force, with a large smelter resuming production and another entering the baking stage. The operating rate in Anhui is expected to rise by about 10 percentage points next week. The operating rates in other provinces were generally stable. It is expected that the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises to start work will only increase limitedly [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 10, the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 61.71%, an increase of 6.58 percentage points. The resumption of work after the holiday was the main reason for the increase. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to recover next week, and the production rhythm will be more inclined to production - based - on - sales [2] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.69 million tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons compared to the previous week. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 237,000 tons [3]

Core Insights - In July, the sample enterprises produced 415,000 tons of refined lead, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and a month-on-month increase of 16,000 tons [1] - The primary lead production was 227,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 6,000 tons [1] - The recycled lead production reached 188,000 tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 10.6% and a month-on-month increase of 22,000 tons [1]