上 市 公 司 互联网电商 2025 年 11 月 23 日 万物新生 (RERE) ——收入和盈利双重高增，能力复用加快打造成长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（美元） | 4.10 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22273.08 | | 52 周最高/最低（美元） | 4.93/2.00 | | 美股市值（亿美元） | 9.0 | | 流通股（亿股） | 0.88 | | 汇率（美元/人民币） | 7.10 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 《万物新生（RERE）深度："闲置资产"炼 金，打造循环经济标杆》 2025/10/23 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李秀琳 A0230525070005 lixl2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 A0230525070005 lixl2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20. ...

Core Insights - The circular economy industry is fundamentally reducing reliance on primary resources and environmental pollution by transforming waste into resources, fostering new business models such as recycling, remanufacturing, and green design [1] Group 1: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry in China is experiencing a wave of equipment upgrades, with over 30,000 wind turbines expected to be decommissioned by 2030, generating more than 3 million tons of solid waste [1][3] - A significant portion of decommissioned wind turbines consists of 86% steel, 10% fiberglass, 3.5% copper and aluminum, and 0.5% rare earth elements, with turbine blades being a major challenge for recycling due to their hardness and low recovery value [3] - Innovative technologies are being developed, such as artificial board production from crushed turbine blades, which meet national E0-level standards for formaldehyde emissions [3][5] Group 2: Automotive Recycling Industry - The automotive recycling industry is rapidly developing, driven by policies promoting vehicle trade-ins, with a notable increase in the recovery of scrap vehicles [7] - In Xinjiang, a recycling company has achieved a resource recovery rate of 95% through technological innovations, with an export value of remanufactured engines reaching 20 million yuan last year [9] - The industry is moving towards convenience and standardization, with initiatives for electronic proof of vehicle recycling and online appointment services [11][12] Group 3: Resource Recycling Industry - The resource recycling industry in China is projected to reach a value of 5 trillion yuan this year, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" for circular economy development [21] - Significant improvements have been made in energy efficiency, with a reported 11.6% decrease in energy consumption per unit of GDP compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [23] - The establishment of over 10,000 battery recycling service points across the country has facilitated the recycling of more than 300,000 tons of used batteries, supporting the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry [23][25] Group 4: Green Living and Second-Hand Market - The second-hand market is thriving, with a new 3,000 square meter store in Beijing offering over 30,000 second-hand items, reflecting a growing trend towards green consumption [15][17] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to over 20 billion yuan in subsidies across major sectors, significantly boosting the scale of second-hand transactions [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales increased by 8.1% to $427 million, with a constant currency increase of 8.6% [12] - Comparable store sales (COMPS) increased by 5.8%, with U.S. COMPS up 7.1% and Canadian COMPS up 3.9% [12][19] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $70 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4% [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. business sales grew by 10.5% to $235 million, driven by both transactions and average basket size [12][19] - Canadian net sales increased by 5.1% to $161 million, with a constant currency increase of 6.1% [12] - U.S. segment profit was $48 million, up $3 million year-over-year, while Canadian segment profit was $45 million, up $0.4 million [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian macro environment remains challenging, with unemployment above 7% and inflationary pressures affecting lower-income consumers [8][9] - The U.S. market shows strong momentum, with a notable increase in younger and more affluent customer cohorts [6][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 25 new stores in 2025, focusing on U.S. expansion due to significant growth opportunities [4][10] - A strategic shift towards U.S.-centric growth is emphasized, with 75% to 80% of growth capital allocated to the U.S. market [22] - The company aims to maintain a targeted 20% store-level contribution margin and improve operational efficiency [4][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges ongoing macroeconomic pressures in Canada but remains optimistic about U.S. growth [5][18] - The company is tightening its revenue and earnings outlook for 2025, projecting net sales of $1.67 billion to $1.68 billion [19] - Management expects Canadian COMPS to remain flat in the fourth quarter due to challenging conditions [18] Other Important Information - The company has successfully refinanced its debt, expecting annual interest expense savings of approximately $17 million [16] - A new $50 million share repurchase authorization has been approved by the board of directors [18] - The company has kept 3.2 billion pounds of usable items out of landfills over the past five years, highlighting its commitment to sustainability [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the Canadian market further? - Management noted that while there has been sequential improvement in Canada, macro challenges persist, including high unemployment and inflation [21] Question: What are the drivers behind the margin pressures? - The primary drivers include new store growth and processing challenges in Canada, which management is actively addressing [30] Question: How is the U.S. business performing in terms of customer transactions? - The U.S. business is seeing strong transaction growth, particularly among younger and higher-income consumers [26] Question: What is the strategy for new market expansion? - The company plans to enter Tennessee and North Carolina, leveraging local supply and community engagement strategies [32][39] Question: How will the company manage profitability between U.S. and Canadian segments? - Management indicated a focus on maintaining profitability in the U.S. while being disciplined with costs in Canada [44]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of trust barriers in the domestic consumption market, highlighting how companies like 转转 are leveraging this to establish themselves as leaders in the circular economy [1][18] - 转转 is transitioning from a C2C model to a CBC model to address key issues of information asymmetry and trust deficiency in the circular economy [1][18] - The circular economy is at a tipping point, with the global second-hand market projected to grow from $1.8 trillion in 2024 to $2.2 trillion by 2027, indicating significant growth potential for 转转 [2] Company Strategy - 转转's decision to shut down its C2C marketplace and focus on the CBC model aims to build a robust trust system through professional quality inspection, efficient fulfillment, and comprehensive service guarantees [1][18] - The company has established a unique quality inspection system and a customer service framework, enhancing user trust and transaction efficiency [14][15] - 转转's growth strategy includes expanding into various high-value categories, evidenced by significant increases in retail order volumes across multiple product lines during key sales events [18][19] Market Context - The article draws parallels between 转转 and successful consumption models in Hong Kong, suggesting that 转转 is replicating the success of the "消费四姐妹" by building differentiated advantages [2] - The changing consumer mindset towards sustainability and value is driving the demand for second-hand goods, with nearly 90% of users expressing willingness to purchase second-hand devices [7][6] - The circular economy is gaining traction globally, with China positioned to potentially create the world's first multi-category second-hand consumption giant due to its unique trust dynamics [16][20] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer behavior towards valuing sustainability and cost-effectiveness is reshaping the market, with a notable increase in high-spending female users on the 转转 platform [8][6] - The rise of the circular economy reflects a broader change in consumption patterns, moving from excess to a more sustainable approach [5][4] - The trust crisis in consumer goods is prompting a demand for reliable platforms, positioning 转转 as a key player in addressing these concerns [17][20]

Summary of ThredUp Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ThredUp Inc. - **Industry**: Online resale and secondhand retail Key Points and Arguments Business Transformation - ThredUp underwent a significant transformation in the U.S. business, moving away from a struggling European segment, which was dragging down consolidated results. The decision to focus solely on the U.S. market was made in August of the previous year, leading to improved performance in subsequent quarters [2][3]. Revenue Growth - The company reported a revenue growth of 10% in Q4 of the previous year and projected a 25% growth for Q3 of the current year [4][5]. - New customer growth was remarkable, with a 95% increase year-over-year in Q1 and a 75% increase in Q2 [43]. AI and Product Investments - ThredUp has made significant investments in AI, which has improved product cataloging and customer experience. The company transitioned from tagging 6-7 attributes per item to over 100 attributes using AI, resulting in an 18% year-over-year increase in new customer conversion rates [25][26]. - AI-driven features include improved search capabilities, similar search options, and social commerce initiatives that integrate with platforms like Pinterest and Instagram [28][29]. Seller Experience Enhancements - The introduction of a premium selling kit priced at $34.99 has been successful, accounting for over 10% of seller expenses. This kit offers enhanced services such as longer consignment windows and better price control [10][11]. - The psychology of pricing has been leveraged to encourage sellers to submit higher-quality items, as they are more likely to include valuable items when paying a premium fee [16]. Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) and Payback Period - Customer acquisition costs have decreased, leading to a payback period of well under a year. This allows for increased marketing spend to further accelerate growth [55]. - The marketing budget has remained stable at 18-20% of sales, with expectations to maintain this level while focusing on organic growth opportunities in the long term [56]. Supply Chain and Processing Efficiency - The processing backlog for regular bags is currently 4-5 weeks, with premium kits processed within a week. This efficiency has improved customer satisfaction regarding processing times [62]. - The existing distribution network can support approximately $500 million in revenue, with plans for future expansions based on growth [65]. Financial Discipline and Margin Management - ThredUp aims to balance growth with margin expansion, committing to EBITDA guidance while reinvesting incremental revenue into growth initiatives [83][84]. - The company anticipates steady industry growth in the low double digits, which aligns with its growth strategy and free cash flow generation [87]. Market Trends and Customer Behavior - The current customer base is increasingly composed of resale natives who are familiar with secondhand shopping, leading to better lifetime values and retention rates [43][44]. - The normalization of secondhand shopping is seen as a potential tailwind for the industry, with a shift in consumer perception similar to the acceptance of electric vehicles [46]. Additional Important Insights - The company is focused on leveraging technology and innovation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, with ongoing discussions about future capital expenditures to support growth [81]. - ThredUp's strategy includes a commitment to maintaining a positive free cash flow while investing in new technologies and infrastructure to stay ahead in the competitive landscape [76][84].

Core Insights - In July 2025, Estonia's retail trade turnover reached €929 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, the retail trade turnover in Estonia totaled €6.22 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [2] Retail Performance by Category - Specialty stores selling computers and accessories, telecommunications equipment, and sports equipment saw a significant year-on-year sales increase of 27.8% [1] - Retail turnover for automotive fuel increased by 9.7% year-on-year [1] - Sales from second-hand goods and non-store retail (including stalls, markets, and direct sales) grew by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - Automotive maintenance and repair services experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1] - Pharmacies and cosmetics specialty stores reported a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Declines in Specific Categories - Specialty stores selling food, beverages, and tobacco experienced a significant year-on-year decline of 24.1% [1] - Sales of motor vehicles and motorcycles dropped by 17.2% year-on-year [1] - Other non-store retail categories saw a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-store sales of food, beverages, and tobacco declined by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales through mail order or the internet fell by 3.4% year-on-year [1] - Specialty stores selling textiles, clothing, and footwear remained flat compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a record high total revenue of 4.99 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.2% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit exceeded 120 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9% [1] - The company plans to return at least 60% of annual non-GAAP net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 through dividends and buybacks [3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from self-operated (1P) product sales reached 4.56 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [1] - Platform (3P) service revenue was 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [1] - The total transaction volume of second-hand goods on the platform reached 10.3 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [1] Profitability - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 99.91 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of over 230 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year [1] - GAAP operating profit and net profit for Q2 were 91.07 million yuan and 72.34 million yuan, respectively [1] Operational Expansion - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company had 2,092 offline stores across 291 cities, enhancing customer convenience for in-store delivery [2] - The self-operated on-site team grew to 1,160 members, improving fulfillment capabilities and efficiency [2] - The multi-category recycling service generated a GMV of 1.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 110% [2] Market Trends - The consumer electronics market benefited from trade-in policies, with significant growth in C2B recycling performance driven by national subsidies and e-commerce promotions [2] - The recovery in gold prices led to a 118% year-on-year increase in gold recycling GMV, while luxury goods recycling GMV grew by 63% [2] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its front-end scenarios and improve delivery experiences to increase recycling penetration rates [3] - The management emphasizes the importance of leveraging unique business models to create innovative benchmarks in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The younger generation, previously labeled as "spending enthusiasts," has transformed into savvy "money-saving masters," utilizing second-hand goods, shared economy, and creative cost-cutting strategies to redefine their consumption habits [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in Consumption Behavior - The user group aged 25-35 has seen a 217% increase in second-hand transaction volume over the past two years [3]. - Young professionals are now more focused on finding high-value second-hand office equipment rather than the latest smartphones, leading to a decline in foot traffic at fast fashion brands while second-hand luxury stores experience long queues [7]. - The consumption of gold among the 18-35 age group in China reached 42% in 2023, marking a historical high, while the value of diamond rings has depreciated by 60% [9]. Group 2: Innovative Money-Saving Techniques - Young individuals are developing various money-saving hacks, such as using a "plate rack" instead of expensive storage boxes and optimizing shopping routes for discounted groceries [5]. - The trend of "spongeing" off older generations has emerged, with young people attending community classes aimed at seniors, resulting in a 240% year-on-year increase in 90s generation tourists for senior travel packages [11]. Group 3: Rise of Sharing Economy - A shared kitchen named "Hour of Time" has become popular among office workers, allowing users to cook for 30 yuan per hour, saving 40% compared to takeout [13]. - The wedding dress rental market is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2023, with 70% of customers being cost-conscious individuals born in the 1990s [14]. Group 4: Social Dynamics and New Value Systems - The "stooping" culture, which involves collecting discarded items, has gained popularity, with over 500,000 posts on Xiaohongshu and a reading volume exceeding 300 million [16]. - Social interactions among young professionals have shifted from showcasing luxury purchases to sharing money-saving strategies, with "help me bargain" becoming a common conversation starter [18]. - Notes tagged with "money-saving challenge" on Xiaohongshu have 3.2 times the interaction of unboxing reviews, indicating a shift in social currency towards frugality [20]. Group 5: Impact on Relationships and Social Perception - Users who mention "financial management skills" in their dating profiles see a 27% increase in matching success, while those showcasing luxury items experience a 43% decrease in private messages received [23].

Core Insights - In June 2025, Estonia's retail trade turnover reached €928 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] Retail Performance by Sector - Specialty stores selling computers and accessories, telecommunications equipment, and sports equipment saw a significant turnover increase of 21.8% [1] - Sales of second-hand goods and non-store retail (including stalls, markets, and direct sales) experienced a turnover growth of 13.2% [1] - E-commerce and mail-order retail recorded a turnover increase of 13% [1] - Retail turnover for automotive fuel increased by 12.2% [1] - Stores selling home goods, appliances, hardware, and building materials saw a turnover rise of 10.3% [1] - Pharmacies and cosmetics specialty stores reported an 8.4% increase in turnover [1] - Specialty stores selling textiles, clothing, and footwear experienced a modest turnover growth of 2.6% [1] - Department stores focused on industrial products faced a turnover decline of 2.2% [1] - Grocery stores selling tobacco, alcohol, and beverages saw a turnover decrease of 3.6% [1] Overall Retail Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, Estonia's retail trade turnover reached €5.22 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government has announced the cancellation of the "de minimis" tax exemption for imported goods valued under $800, effective August 29, 2023, nearly two years earlier than previously planned [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on E-commerce Platforms - C2C e-commerce platforms like eBay and Etsy will face significant challenges as international transactions for second-hand, vintage, and handmade goods may incur high tariffs, leading to increased consumer costs and reduced purchasing choices [2][3]. - Sellers on platforms like Etsy anticipate a 30%-50% decrease in order volume due to the new tariffs, which will make their products less competitive [3][5]. - eBay has stated that the policy change will harm consumer interests and reduce market diversity, while Etsy warns that it may force small sellers off the platform [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Reactions and Concerns - Consumers are expected to face higher costs, with some items potentially doubling in price due to tariffs, taxes, and handling fees, which could lead to a significant reduction in purchases of international goods [2][3]. - Consumer advocacy groups have expressed concerns that the policy will deprive Americans of access to unique, low-cost products and increase the overall cost of living [3][6]. Group 3: Industry and Economic Implications - The International Secondhand Trade Association (IBTA) has warned that the policy could destroy a multi-billion dollar industry and lead to significant job losses [5]. - Delivery companies like FedEx and UPS have cautioned that the new tariff declaration process may cause package backlogs and delays in delivery times [6]. - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office has reiterated that the policy change will not be altered, emphasizing a shift away from being a "dumping ground" for cheap goods [6].