智通财经APP获悉，据景顺高级投资组合经理Alessio de Longis称，在美联储降息的可能性增加以及美 国国债的传统避险地位得以恢复的情况下，美国国债比欧洲债券更具投资价值。 在特朗普于 4 月实施"解放日"关税政策之后，美国国债的表现起初落后于欧洲国债，因为这一举措动摇 了人们对美国国债安全性的信心。但de Longis表示，自年初以来他一直持有的这种超配仓位"得到了有 力的证明"，因为美国就业数据的下滑促使美联储采取更激进的宽松政策。 他在一次采访中表示："外国央行在宽松政策的实施方面更为优先，我们认为美联储仍有下调利率的空 间。固定收益资产表现优异的原因应当是今年剩余时间里经济放缓的更多迹象。" 关键的考验将在周五到来，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行会议上发表备受期待 的讲话。市场利率预期显示，美联储到今年年底利率将降息两次25个基点，de Longis预计鲍威尔会提及 在九月进行降息的可能性。 de Longis表示："美国的劳动力市场报告正日益成为'最受关注的经济数据'。"他还称，投资者"正试图将 更多投资转向更安全的固定收益资产"。 自四月冲击以来，美国国债再次重获青睐， ...

中金公司点评7月金融数据：金融投资活跃或是非银存款大幅多增的重要支撑因素。7月一个突出的特点 是新增非银机构存款较多，7月新增非银机构存款达到2.14万亿元，同比多增1.39万亿元。这已经不是今 年第一次出现非银金融机构存款大幅多增的情况，今年4月新增非银金融机构存款也创下过去10年的最 高纪录。这或反映出在存款利率下降的大背景下，私人部门的金融投资愈加活跃。考虑到7月国债收益 率上升、利率债价格下降，固定收益资产的相对吸引力偏弱，非银金融机构的新增存款有可能更多流向 了股票市场。 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Hebei Chengda Lintong Equity Investment Fund has been officially announced, with three insurance companies among its seven partners, contributing a total of 31 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of the fund [1] - China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. contributed 20 billion yuan (40%), Bank of China Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. contributed 10 billion yuan (20%), and China Life Property Insurance Co., Ltd. contributed 1 billion yuan (2%) [1] Group 2 - Insurance institutions are expected to further increase their equity investment ratio, with a significant rise in private equity fund sizes this year, showing a year-on-year increase of 524.9% to approximately 25 billion yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The establishment of the Taiping War New M&A Private Fund, with an initial scale of 10 billion yuan, focuses on key areas such as state-owned enterprise reform and modern industrial system construction in Shanghai [2] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, insurance asset management institutions registered equity investment plans totaling approximately 26.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 188% [3] - The increase in equity investment by insurance institutions is driven by two main factors: declining market interest rates and supportive policies encouraging investment in strategic emerging industries [3][4] - Regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to support the real economy has led to increased investments in sectors like energy and technology [3] Group 4 - The expectation of economic recovery is likely to prompt insurance capital to continue increasing equity asset allocations to enhance returns, while maintaining a balance with debt assets for liquidity and safety [4]

Core Insights - The growth of foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies in China has been notable, with firms like BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture surpassing 500 billion yuan in total assets, and the former exceeding 600 billion yuan in July [1][3] - In contrast, many domestic wealth management companies experienced a decline in scale in June, attributed to a recovering stock market and low bond yields [1][3] - Fixed income assets are crucial for institutions to expand their scale, especially in a low-interest-rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from around 3% at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 1.6% [3][8] Foreign Wealth Management Expansion - Foreign wealth management firms in China have seen a resurgence in scale over the past two years, with BlackRock's joint venture achieving nearly double its size this year [2][3] - The focus of these firms is primarily on fixed income assets, including cash management products and various fixed income strategies, while maintaining a low allocation to equity assets [3][4] - BlackRock's joint venture has launched a total of 120 products across various risk levels, aiming to meet diverse investor needs [4] Domestic Wealth Management Trends - Domestic wealth management companies still dominate the market, with three firms exceeding 2 trillion yuan in scale and nearly ten others surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1][8] - The overall scale of wealth management products in the market reached 30.97 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous years [6][8] - The decline in scale for many domestic firms in June was significant, with a total drop of nearly 10 billion yuan across various institutions [7] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current bond market is characterized by low yields, posing challenges for the expansion of wealth management scales [8] - Expectations for monetary policy adjustments, such as rate cuts, are low, with potential policy changes anticipated around September or later [10] - The prevailing view among institutions is to maintain a range-bound strategy in the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7% [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a focus on fixed income assets, European equities, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, suggesting a cautious outlook on U.S. equities due to economic pressures [1][2]. Core Insights - The U.S. debt burden is projected to reach $1.4-1.5 trillion by 2025, exceeding 20% of fiscal revenue, which poses potential risks to the economy [1][4]. - The U.S. economy is currently facing high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which historically correlate with economic downturns [1][6]. - There is a notable decline in corporate financing activities due to increased costs and policy uncertainties, leading to a decrease in money supply growth [1][7]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Context - The report highlights a reallocation of funds from U.S. equities to non-U.S. markets, particularly European equities and fixed income assets, driven by reduced support for the U.S. economy [2]. U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has doubled post-pandemic, with interest burdens rising rapidly, leading to concerns about sustainability and economic stability [3][4]. - The Trump administration's measures to address the debt crisis, including increasing revenue and negotiating lower interest rates, have had limited success [5]. Economic Challenges - The combination of high inflation, interest rates, and wages is squeezing corporate profitability, raising concerns about potential profit contractions [6]. - Increased financing costs and policy uncertainties are leading to reduced corporate borrowing and investment activities [7]. Fixed Income Opportunities - Global central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, are in a trend of lowering interest rates, creating investment opportunities in fixed income categories despite short-term uncertainties in the U.S. and U.K. [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued opportunities in the bond market, suggesting that investors should actively allocate to bond assets, especially in the upcoming third quarter [14].

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities predicts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds is expected to decline to a range of 1.4% to 1.5% within the year due to stronger demand for fixed income assets compared to supply [1] Group 1 - Guosheng Securities' chief fixed income analyst Yang Yewei indicates that the demand for fixed income assets in China will exceed supply in the coming months [1] - This trend, if strong, will drive interest rates further down [1] - The anticipated decline in the 10-year government bond yield reflects broader market conditions [1]